Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

639 Comments Post a Comment
    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Wow

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks

    3. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Saiss in FTW

    4. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Makes it easier to sell him in GW19 now IMO.

  1. Ozzy smith
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Well, that’s the FH reluctantly activated.

  2. The Left Duke #3
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I played my FH early as had only 5 players (Martinez Taylor Bissouma Son Bruno). With Martinez game gone, Bissouma suspended & Taylor injured, I would have only had 2 players playing lol.....I really had no choice but to play the FH 🙂

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I have 5.5 players left
      I’m playing tonight

      1. The Left Duke #3
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I made the decision mid XMas to play for DGW 19 and not worry about 18 and FH. Now in hindsight it seems most can get a fine team out in 18 without a chip

  3. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    With the news that Spurs still play, would you get Kane back in by doing the following, or leave as is?
    FabioSilva AWB Darlow Sterling —> Kane Stones Lloris 5.6mid
    (Could even go for fodder on the mid, enabling replacing Wilson with Richa?)

    Darlow (4.0)
    Cancelo Tierney AWB (Mitchell 3.9)
    KDB Bruno Son Sterling Saka
    Lacazette Wilson (FabioSilva)

    Thanks 🙂

    1. kime67
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      going without kane this gw is stupid yes

    2. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Presume not on a free hit so this would mean points hits? If so, then it's too risky to spend that many points swapping playing players for other playing players. Darlow, Sterling and AWB could do pretty well.

      1. Top Lad Dakes.
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I’m on FH

        1. Better off with a pin and a…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          It's still tight, but I think it comes down to whether you think Kane outscores Sterling. The others feel balanced to me. Lloris probably has a better CS chance than Darlow, Stones/AWB feels level.

  4. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    No brainer right?....

    Sanchez (Don’t ask!)
    Stones Holding
    KDB Son Bruno

    1 FT

    1. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      1000000%

    2. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yup. You have to FH - when this season is it going to look worse (famous last words!?).

  5. YoungPretender
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Wilson & Dias (have Cancelo)
    Or
    Foden & Tierney

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      F and T
      Mainly due to uncertainty over Wilson

  6. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Dominic Calvert-Lewin has suffered a hamstring injury and will not be available tomorrow. Ancelotti unsure at this point when the striker will return... #EFC

    https://twitter.com/BenDinnery/status/1348618775499841536?s=19

    1. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      only 3 left in GW 18 then 😀

  7. b91jh
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    It is a triple Spurs then with the changing opponent. Son locked in also.

  8. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    DCL out for Wolves game!

    https://twitter.com/_pauljoyce/status/1348618500215091201?s=21

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      That’s everyone switching to Kane then

  9. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    If Wilson is out, Laca becomes third striker by almost default.

    1. kime67
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      why would he be out?

  10. kime67
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    de gea or darlow in goal?

    1. LC1
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      DDG

  11. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    DCL out, the biggest threat by far to my rank this week. Phew!

  12. Kodap
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Wow... with DCL out i can now only field 6, surely time to hit the FH button?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Depends on your team. I would take 1-2 hits to bring in City players and save the FH. This helps with GW19

    2. Jack Burton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I would mate

  13. McSauce
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Kane about to Shoot up the (C) Poll

  14. BurnMyBread
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    When can we expect to get some clarification on Southampton's situation with regards to their match against Leeds?

  15. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is Aurier fit? Tempted by Reguillon on Fh

  16. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    If you have activated FH for this gw, is there anything you can do in order not to play it?

    1. kime67
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      no

      1. Shark Team
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Nice cause I wouldnt want another headache about which chip plan to follow

  17. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who to be in ur team ?
    Gundogan or Saka
    Rashford or Laca
    Leno or Darlow

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      For GW 18

    2. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Saka, Laca, Leno

    3. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I’ve taken Saka Laca and did have Darlow, but switched to Lloris cos I had the funds

      May switch back idk

    4. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Gundo, Rash, Leno

    5. Nolberto Solano
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Saka, Rashford and Leno (Tierney is your other Arsenal right?)

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Yes

    6. Silecro
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Saka, Rash, Darlow

    7. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Both, Laca, DDG

  18. Dele
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Wow

  19. R.C
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Richa is a doubt too now?

    1. Top Lad Dakes.
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Errr why

      1. Silecro
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Ancelotti: "Pickford is okay. Richarlison we have to wait at training today to make a decision. Calvert-Lewin is not available. Hamstring problem. No (there is no timescale). I think soon he can recover."

  20. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi all, after the announcement I have this for gw18, tempted to do strujik balbuena to Mitchell Clark -4 to give me 8

    Stones holding Clark Mitchell
    Kdb Bruno son
    Kane

    Martinez Forster kwp salah soucek bamford davis

  21. SHOOTER MCGINN
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Dias Maguire "Taylor Mitchell"
    KDB Fernandes
    Kane DCL

    Was always planning on taking a -4 to get Cancelo too and would've got 11 out (with Martinez & Grealish), but with Villa not playing wondering whether just to free hit. Would effectively be adding these guys to my team:

    Leno
    Taylor -> Son
    Mitchell -> Rashford
    Smith Rowe
    Cancelo (for free this week instead of -4 but I'd need the -4 next week to get him again for the double)

    Hoping to gain around 25-30 points from these guys on free hit - worth it?

  22. Merlinho
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Saka and Wilson with slightly stronger bench (Lascelles/Mitchell/Brewster/Sanchez), or ESR and Laca and a weaker bench (Mitchell/Brewster/Bernardo/non playing keeper)?

    Not sure whether to worry about more postponements but either way my bench wouldn’t be great

  23. Nolberto Solano
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Which option to complete a FH team?

    A) Leno, Stones & Rashford
    B) De Gea, Gundogan & Lacazette

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A. Just

    2. dshv
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

  24. Fit_to_drop
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Got to this GW18 team with 0 hits and no chips. Planning to not change that either, even if Villa dont play.

    May do DCL&Grealish to Salah next week for a -4. Will leave me 11 DGWers if Stephens gets minutes for Burnley.

    GTG?

    Martínez
    Mitchell Cancelo Stones
    Fernandes Neto Stephens Grealish De Bruyne
    Calvert-Lewin Kane

    Forster Cresswell Robertson Bamford

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but dcl ruled out and Spurs now play Fulham so villa have no fixture

  25. dshv
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    On FH

    1.Holding and darlow
    2.Leno and dier

    1. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      2

    2. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      2

  26. Jabba12
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    a) Tierney & Smith-Rowe
    or
    b)Holding & Saka?

    1. Fit_to_drop
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A for me

    2. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B

  27. Bleh
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    DCL out for Wolves match

    https://twitter.com/_pauljoyce/status/1348618500215091201?s=21

    1. SHOOTER MCGINN
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Wow. Well that is the free hit 100% confirmed.

  28. The Senate
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    (A) roll FT
    (B) Salah to KDB
    (C) Targett to Stones

  29. The Mighty Whites
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    DDG or Lloris?

    1. abhirup780
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Depends on your defender selection.
      It is either AWB/Maguire + Lloris
      or Reguilon/Dier + DDG.
      cover for both defence is better imo.