Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jon Snow
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Solid article. Normally my wait and see strategy (AKA forget about FPL till the last minute and panic transfer on the deadline) leaves me with terrible team value and a very mediocre mid season. This year it's paid dividends, currently at 40k my best ever OR. Maybe it's all the fraudulent injury claims from certain managers and cancelled games...?

    If I somehow make the top 10k at the end of the season I'll buy everyone a bag of marshmellows.

    1. Black Knights
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Is that one bag of marshmallows to share between us? Or each?

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I promise you a whole bag if you come to get it, don't worry 🙂

      2. Lord.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I’ll take two bags next season.

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I guess every season is a bit different. Early in the season being aggressive helps to earn tv and those who aren't so hit averse can still benefit for making two transfers.

      This season, I don't know. Maybe I should have delayed my every transfer early in the season. And not only days, gameweeks more likely.

    3. PastaFasul
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I would rather have taken fewer hits...taken 6 so far but immediate points gains from transfers 137 so it has paid off mostly and my team value is quite a bit higher than my ML rivals. For me this year the captain blanks have hurt me the most from KDB and Salah. Usually I like to have 25% of my total points from captain but down to about 20% this season.

  2. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Benching Wilson reluctantly, GTG?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Stones Coufal
    KDB (TC) Bruno Rashford Son Soucek
    Martial Antonio

    Areola Wilson Holding Mitchell

    1. No Kane No Gain
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not worried about KDB minutes?!. You’re actually 1 transfer away from a good bench boost!

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Have already used BB. KDB starts both games for me but maybe managed minutes if one is comfortable.

    2. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very strong team so GTG. I think a lot of people will have bench points this gameweek. I'll have Raphinha, Dallas, McCarthy and Lowton!

    3. Marcin the Pole
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Martial may be injured. Keep tabs. No Liverpool not a worry?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Can't have them all

        1. Marcin the Pole
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Agreed, but triple United and no Liverpool still seems a risky strategy.

    4. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Good to see the TC on KDB

      1. No Kane No Gain
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I’d join in but worried after him apparently being tired after the brighton match.

    5. JONALDINHO
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Why are people so reluctant to bench boost. Your bench can easily get 20+ pts. Just use it and get it out of the way. It’s not a good chip anyway

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Used it in GW1 for 20 points extra

    6. Brehmeren
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      BB instead of TC

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers but no BB left

  3. dsefton
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    DDG Areola
    Cancelo Stones Coufal Lowton (Tierney --> Cresswell?)
    KdB Bruno Rashford Soucek (Son --> Salah?)
    Wilson (Laca --> Watkins?) Bamford

    Assuming Tierney is out:
    A) Son + Laca + Tierney --> Salah + Watkins + Cresswell (-8) - can't do Antonio as would have 3 west ham already...
    B) Laca + Tierney --> Vardy + 4.6m def (-4)
    C) Tierney --> Cresswell (FT)
    D) Son + Laca + Tierney --> Salah + Antonio + 5.4m def (Justin?)
    E) Something else?

    1. jayzico
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      C

      1. dsefton
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        even with a BB not worth the -8?

    2. jayzico
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No, actually B. But you can't afford a west ham def unfortunately unless MIB

      1. dsefton
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        any good DGW options at 4.6m or less?

        1. dsefton
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          i already have coufal, so one west ham def

  4. Sho-kun
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    What should I do? 1ft

    McCarthy
    Cancelo/Justin/Coufal
    Saka/Bowen/KDB(C)/Bruno
    Kane/Bamford/Laca

    Ryan/Neto/Coady/Mitchell

    for example:
    Coady/Bruno --> Salah/Def. for 4.8

  5. jayzico
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Saka > Barnes, Mount or other DGWer. Got 7.4m

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Foden?

      1. jayzico
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Got 3 citeh

  6. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Last Man Standing GW18 (1397 teams)

    Safety score = 34
    Top score = 71
    LMS average = 48.95 (-0.97) = 47.98

    126 teams removed, 1271 through to GW19

    9% or minimum 115 out next GW

    4557 teams entered this season.

    1. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Still on for a win on this one 🙂 We are gonna celebrate a lot 🙂 hi 5

    2. Brehmeren
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Wuhuu. Survived a -8 and no FH used.

  7. Marcin the Pole
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Best budget mid for the next few weeks? (Own Soucek)

    A) Gundogan
    B) Lookman
    C) Cavaleiro
    D) McGinn?

    1. WG010692
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A - Risk on 90 mins, but fixtures are great

    2. Silent Hunter
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Lookman

    3. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A - i've had Lookman for weeks now and he's done nothing

  8. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    the chances Reece starts both DGW19 are small right?

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If he's fit enough, I'd say the chance is higher than 50%. With Arsenal the exception (James & Chillwell weren't even fully fit) we've done poorly without our first choice back 4.

  9. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Surely play Dallas over Targett? Covid uncertainty plus 4 YCs!

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Will Newcastle score if he plays?

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        What if he gets YC against City. 0 point in DGW likely then!

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Might as well sell Bruno 😛

          1. Pep Roulette
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Haha good point

  10. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Right, I think I'm saving my BB for another time.

    McCarthy
    Robertson / Cancelo / Coufal
    Salah / Fernandes / Son / Soucek / Raphinha
    Vardy / Bamford

    Forster // Alioski / Taylor* / DCL*

    A) McCarthy/DCL > Martinez/Antonio
    B) McCarthy/DCL > Martinez/Cavani
    C) McCarthy/Taylor > Martinez/Stones
    D) Forster/DCL > Martinez/Antonio

    All include benching Raphinha. C keeps DCL, who could then be back for NEW.

    D is more so for if I want to keep SOU coverage handy, but honestly SOU fixtures aren't all that across the next few weeks. This is why I feel McCarthy > Martinez is worthwhile (given fixtures & future doubles too.)

    Advice appreciated!

    1. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Other than Martinez and TAA you have the exact same starting 11 as me! So I like A.

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Ahh, the good ol' template. Thanks for the response.

        1. BeWater
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Nice to see someone else going with Robbo/TAA, Vardy and Son with no KDB.

          I brought Coufal and Antonio in a couple of days ago. Going to have to bench Raphinha unfortunately.

          1. Hazz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Silly ol' me sold KDB/Brewster for Soucek/Vardy (right before KDB did well again & a surprise MCI DGW appeared.)

            Not unhappy with my selections here, but it is a risky one. Essentially Vardy/Soucek vs. KDB/[FWD].

            Accept Son could blank again, but he's been very dangerous this season & highly owned so can hurt you.

            Raphinha is someone I wouldn't have got if not for the original DGW. Got a goal from him and he may well be bench points this weekend... but hey-ho.

            1. BeWater
              • 3 Years
              3 years, 2 months ago

              I was the same. Played my WC in 16 and took KDB out after owning him most of the season. Then City get a DGW. That's this season for you.

  11. Rash
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who have west ham got to play upfront bar Antonio? Surely he can't play 180 mins!

    1. @persecuted_by_mods
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Plays could do 60, 70

      • Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        70-75 in both, 90 if they’re struggling for the win/goals I think

      • Sean
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Presume Yarmolenko comes off the bench for him around 70 mins?

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          That hyped young dude

    2. sirmorbach
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Lads, what do you suggest here, please?

      McCarthy / Steer
      Robertson / Dias / Cresswell / Saïss /  Dallas
      Salah / Bruno / Son / Grealish / Soucek
      DCL / Watkins / Bamford

      1. sirmorbach
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thinking of Steer and DCL to Martinez and Antonio, and then bench boost. Sounds reasonable?

      2. Jon Snow
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Similar position to my team, depends how much you want that City coverage and if you want to BB. I personally would go ahead with the BB

        DCL + Son >> playing fodder + KdB?

        Or if you're willing to take the hit do the above + downgrade Dallas.

        Alternatively I've been considering downgrading Robertson for a City Defender, depends how much value you have tied up.

        1. sirmorbach
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Thanks, Jon Snow!

    3. 03farmboy
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I have Salah, Bruno and De Bruyne

      But who’s best one to Triple captain this week??

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        KDB for me or avoid TC

        1. 03farmboy
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Why avoid triple captain??

    4. FPL Daniel
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I plan keeping both Kane and Son and forget Salah for now.

      Get him back in 22nd.

      Too risky? What you thinknabout the strategy?

      1. Mr. O'Connell
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        pretty risky, yeah.

      2. Traction Engine Foot
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Could work well, Liverpool don't look great atm.

      3. The Red Devil
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I'm gonna have the trip + spurs duo, but with a few hits, hope it turns out ok

        1. FPL Daniel
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          The only way I can get him is by 4pt hit

          Son / Rashford out for Salah Antonio

          1. The Red Devil
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Yeah, wouldn't sell son/Rashford
            My moves are
            Grealish+ Taylor+ Bednarek -> Salah+ Mitchell+ coufal (-8)

    5. The Red Devil
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A-Grealish+ Taylor+ Bednarek -> Salah+ Mitchell+ coufal (-8)
      Yay or nay
      B- Kdb TC- yay or nay

      1. The Road to Turfdom
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Yes, no

    6. umerlfc
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      You expect A to outscore B?

      A) Antonio + Foden
      B) Son + Raphinha + 4 points

      1. @persecuted_by_mods
          3 years, 2 months ago

          If they start both games yes

      2. Mr. O'Connell
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Reasons for not using triple captain:

        I still can't decide who to captain between KDB and Salah. When selecting TC I want to have 'the feeling'. I'm pretty certain both players start both games (if they go ahead).
        Any game can be postponed at any time
        There will be more doubles (hopefully the Covid situation relents somewhat)

        1. Big boy Bowen
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Agree, also think the implications of COVID have a worse effect on BB.
          But it does feel a good opportunity to use one of the chips, so it’s TC by default for me

          1. Mr. O'Connell
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            luckily I never considered bench boost so deciding whether or not to BB Forster, Holding, Brewster and Mitchell is a no brainer for me!

            It's an opportunity for sure, my gut feeling is it could tank/I pick Salah who blanks twice and KDB scores 40 points. I'm not ready for that kind of punishment.

        2. Traction Engine Foot
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Yeah, I think I will save it, none of the candidates really stand out

      3. JONALDINHO
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Mane, DCL and Dallas to KDB, Antonio and Cancelo(-8)?

      4. LC1
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I am soooo torn between Dias and Cancelo.

        Feel that Dias is definitely more nailed but Canceloismore explosive. Also have a feeling Cancelo is likely to be benched in 1 of his 2 games!

      5. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Whats Moyeseh saying?

        1. Mr. O'Connell
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          told the reporter to watch herself, or she might get a slap.

        2. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Fabianski wait and see, Balbuena still isolating

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Moyes: "We've only had two players missing: Balbuena is isolating - he came in contact with somebody - but basically we're just about okay. We're waiting on Fabianski to see how he is, we're not sure yet, and Masuaku is probably a couple of months away from being involved again."

      6. the vanisher
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Would appreciate opinions on the below:

        Soucek and Foden IN for Smith Rowe - Son OUT (-4)

        Surely will benefit from DGW19 and long term as well?

        1. OneArseneWenger32
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          just keep son long term..unless u jumping off the train

      7. wulfrunian
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I used my FH now in gw18 and i am thinking to keep BB chip but i see that i can't combine " wc gw25/BB dgw26/good team for blank gw29".That's why i am leaning to use it now even for a -12 but with 15 dgw players.

        1. OneArseneWenger32
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          i'm not using it but if u do make sure you have all dgw players (or son, kane)

      8. Drogo
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Got a full 11-man squad for DGW.

        Because the footballs gods decided to punish me throughout this season I now got 3 leeds players on the bench, since they only have one fixture.

        Question: Do I still play BB-chip with Raphinha, Dallas Bamford and McCarthy on bench?

        1. @persecuted_by_mods
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Why wouldn't you, you don't need 15 doublers to bench boost

            1. Drogo
              • 11 Years
              3 years, 2 months ago

              True, maybe shouldnt be too greedy.

        2. WG010692
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Gundogan mins over 2 games...?

          1. Hooky
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            153

        3. Bene_the_horse
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Hi all,

          Is the below worth a -8 hit? Want to get some Man City participation in my team ideally

          OUT - Bamford, Son and Chilwell

          IN - Brewster ( Benched ), KDB and Dias

          1. WG010692
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Not with Pep Roulette - Bamford could easily get double points at home to Brighton

        4. Letsgo!
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Anybody on-8?

        5. Lost in fantasy
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Any update on Fabianski?

        6. Ci Siamo
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          When is the absolute earliest we could get Spurs DGW?

          Considering selling Kane this week to fund some more doubles but don't want to if Spurs have a DGW imminently

        7. Firminooooo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Please help me out. Thinking Balbuena, DCL and Mane to KdB, Cancelo and Antonio for -8 and BB. Is Mane to KdB for a hit worth it?

          Martinez x2 Johnstone x2
          Robertson x2 Chilwell x2 Cancelo x2 Dias x2 Coufal x2
          KdB x2 Salah x2 Bruno x2 Grealish x2 Soucek x2
          Antonio x2 Bamford Brewster

          BB: Johnstone x2, Coufal x2, Bamford, Brewster

        8. Kane Train
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Which option?

          A) Son & Davis > Grealish & Wilson
          B) Son, Davis & Struijk > El Ghazi, Wilson & Chilwell ( -4)

          Johnstone
          Coufal / Dier / Dias
          Rashford / Son / KDB / Bruno / Soucek
          Kane / Bamford

          Bench: McCarthy, Holding, Struijk, Davis

          1. Firminooooo
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            B if BB