Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hits from the Bong
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I’m on -4 with no money in the bank. Should I bench boost this lot or save it?

    Steer Antonio Taylor Dallas

    1. JJeyy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If you have wildcard id save it

    2. cigan
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      would just play Antonio

      1. Hits from the Bong
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Would have to start him over Soucek, Grealish or Wilson, and he doesn’t really look fit enough to

    3. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Save it

    4. rubberdignerapids
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      how have u managed to get antonio on the bench....I'd play antonio over woeful wilson

  2. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who scores more this week?

    A) Son, Stones
    B) KDB, Bamford

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B

    3. Dexters Laboratory
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B

    4. 2999 - Lady of Legend
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B.

    5. Slurpy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A, unless captain KDB

      1. JJeyy
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Salah always be captain

      2. unclesbasement
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        hows triple captain sound?

    6. wilkinson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B

    7. rubberdignerapids
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B cos Son was looking hella tired

  3. unclesbasement
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Rate my team. Any feedback would be much appreciated
    Martinez (Meslier)
    Coufal, Chilwell,Cancelo (Mitchell, Clyne)
    KDB(TC), Salah,Bruno,Soucek(smith rowe)
    Bamford,Watkins,Vardy

  4. Salah(c)
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    How many points would make bench boost successful in your opinion?

    1. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      20 ish

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      20+

    3. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Minimum 16, imo

      1. NETFLIX & CHILWELL
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        16 is a great effort.

        1. Kabayan
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Hope all the benches playing two games, 4 players x 2 games x 2 points

    4. popey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      i think with all the non- WC chips, anything close to 20pts should be considered a success

  5. gellinmagellan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on Vardy for this GW?

    1. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      got him in my team. He's one of those that just needs one moment to get a goal

    2. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Essential imo

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        This

    3. cigan
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      captaining him as i don't have salah

  6. Henning
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    My Friend did -34 i think ,if he activate wc he wont have -34 right?

    1. JBG
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Correct.

    2. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      if you're competing against him dont tell him that 🙂

      1. JBG
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Also this, haha. I know I wouldn't, if it is money league.

      2. Henning
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Hahaha.. already told him.

  7. htfcbrad
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    BB19 (Areola, Dier, Neto, F. Silva) or save it for DGW26 after WC25?

    1. BremerHB
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Would probably do it.

    2. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      save

    3. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If you still have FH, save BB

  8. Sarri-ball
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Better combo

    Son/antonio or soucek/kane

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Sontonio

    2. cigan
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Tough one. I'm on Sontonio

    3. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Soucek Kane

  9. BremerHB
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) DCL, Son, KWP -> 4.3, KDB, Cancelo/Dias (-8)

    B) DCL, Mitchell -> Antonio, Stones (-4) and BB: Johnstone, Stones, Anguissa, Antonio

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

      1. BremerHB
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks!

    2. JohnBlack
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

      1. BremerHB
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers!

  10. WALOR
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    for draft league:
    Pogba
    or
    Torres (MCI)?

    1. BremerHB
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Pogba more likely to get more minutes.

      1. WALOR
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers Bremer

    2. 2999 - Lady of Legend
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Pog.

      1. WALOR
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers KB

  11. SwissWavey
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Wadkins, Grealish - any suggestion/rumour that either has covid?

    1. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I wanna know this too

  12. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Best move for -4?

    A. Adams+Son >> Antonio+KDB
    B. Dallas+Raphina >> Cancelo+Foden

    Johnstone*
    Robbo*, Dias*, Lowton*, Coufal*
    Salah*, Bruno*, Soucek*, Son, Raphina
    Bamford
    (McCarthy, Dallas, Adams, DCL!)

    1. rubberdignerapids
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A looks solid

    2. Alberto Tomba
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B means you have triple city, all who you may look to shift for their fixture turn. But then is Antonio really back to his best already? Don't think I'd take a hit for either.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Just Son >> KDB then? No hit?

        1. Alberto Tomba
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          No hit with that team, but I don't know if that's the best move. Possibly

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            What city fixture change can I ask? In 5 games time?

    3. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

  13. JohnBlack
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is this good enough to bench boost?

    Johnstone Bamford Dawson Smith-Rowe

    1. BremerHB
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I think so. Not sure if Dawson starts but otherwise looks decent enough.

      1. Totalfootball
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Why wont he start ?

        1. JohnBlack
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Balbuena out so i think he will

      2. iCon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Balbuena isolating so looks good to start

        1. BremerHB
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Ah ok. Didn't know this.

  14. Silecro
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Do you think Aguero will ever be fit in his life again?

    1. rubberdignerapids
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      That would be sad, because he was such a beast- you can see how much city miss him with their lack of goals

      1. Silecro
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        he has brought me my single most satisfying fantasy moment ever - second half poker of goals vs Leicester,had him at c, never felt so ecstatic.
        They truly need him,yes

    2. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      question is, they need a replacement for him since he can't be counted on to stay fit.
      you'd think they are looking to bring someone in before deadline, which would push Kun further back in rotation.

      1. Silecro
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        True. Somehow i still think jesus is simply not that guy

  15. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Best second keeper alongside Martinez on BB and to keep until next WC around week 25?

    A Areola
    B Johnstone

    1. JohnBlack
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Areola

  16. Kodap
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Martinez > Ederson for a -4 this week and for the next few weeks?

    Yay or nay

    1. Bubz
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No

    2. Alberto Tomba
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      -8 If you look to shift him before liv, TOT ars, WHU, MUN so I'd probably leave

  17. Alberto Tomba
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Shall I Bench Boost or save +1FT?

    Meslier (BHA),
    Dier (shu),
    Bissouma / 4.8 Mid using FT (Anguissa or Smith Rowe),
    Bamford (BHA)

    +11DGW players

    1. Salah(c)
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Smith rowe and bb

  18. rubberdignerapids
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bench boost on- Barring any last minute news, I'm locked in.

    Good luck for the weekend everyone!

    Johnstone*
    Stones*, Coufal*, Robertson*
    Kdb*(c), Salah*, Soucek*, Bruno*
    Antonio*, Vardy*, Bamford

    Subs: McCarthy, Lookman*, Pieters*, Dallas

  19. Malkmus
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A'noon all. 0ft, did dcl to Antonio. 2.5 itb.

    McCarthy
    Zouma- coufal- Justin
    Salah (TC) - Bruno- Son - Grealish
    Kane - Antonio- Bamford

    Subs - Dallas, strujik, Anguisa

    1. Mccarthy to Ederson for -4? Thinking yes
    2. TC - Salah / Ederson or no

    Ta!

  20. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on dier to coufal -4? Have balbuena but looks like he’s toast

    1. estheblessed
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Dier clean sheet vs Sheff U = 6points
      Coufal = 2 cleansheets 12-4 = 8points

      1. seanie3
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        neither of those are guaranteed or a given!

        1. estheblessed
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          OK but it paints a picture of what Coufal has to do to out perform a cleansheet from Dier, which is highly probable.

  21. dsefton
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    planning a BB
    DDG Areola
    Cancelo Stones Coufal Lowton Tierney
    KdB Bruno Rashford Soucek (Son --> Salah?)
    Wilson (Laca --> Antonio?) Bamford

    https://twitter.com/David_Ornstein/status/1350071497793163264
    looks promising so maybe worth keeping Tierney and do:
    A) Son + Laca --> Salah + Antonio (for -4)
    or too risky still?
    B) Son + Laca + Tierney --> Salah + Watkins + Cresswell (-8) - can't do Antonio as would have 3 west ham already...
    C) Son + Laca + Tierney --> Salah + Antonio + 5.4m def (Justin?)
    D) Laca + Tierney --> Vardy + 4.6m def (-4)
    E) Tierney --> Cresswell (FT)

  22. Salah(c)
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Chances that forster starts?

  23. Drip Doctor
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A. Dias Raphinha Kane +8pts

    or

    B. Creswell De Bruyne (who i'd captain) Antonio.

  24. estheblessed
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    G2G here or anything for a hit? Also shouldI be starting Balbuena?

    Martinez
    Alioski, Cancelo, Dier
    Son, Salah(c), Grealish, Bruno, Anguissa
    Bamford, Kane

    Forster, Balbuena, Kilman, DCL

  25. MoeZe3bi
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    McCarthy
    Chilwell-Zouma-Stones-Coufal
    Bruno-Salah-Son-Bowen
    Kane-Bamford

    Ryan-Taylor-Raphinha-Wilson
    1FT-0.1ITB

    Worth a bench boost for hits?

  26. Reeker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    1. Brewster -> Antonio (play Antonio over Bamford)
    2. DCL + Son (bought Son at 9.0):-> KDB + Antonio (-4)
    3. James + Son -> Stones and KDB (-4)
    4. Just DCL -> Antonio to prepare for for Son to KDB next week if necessary
    5. James -> Cancelo

  27. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Current team:
    Johnstone-McCarthy
    Robbo-Justin-Coufal-Alioski-Stones
    Salah-Bruno-Son-Soucek-Raphina
    Vardy-Bamford-Adams

    I was intending to bench boost this week but now the Leeds v Southampton game has been postponed.

    What’s transfers should i make here and should i still bench boost?

  28. ragsyboys
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I am surprised not to see Cresswell in scout squad .. Am I missing something ?

  29. Here's Tom with the We…
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Miesler
    Stones Dias Cresswell
    Bruno Son Salah Foden Soucek
    Kane Bamford

    Steer Watkins C Taylor KWP

    A keep as in and no bb
    B Steer to Johnstone -4 and bb
    C Steer and KWP to Johnstone and Coufal -8 and bb

  30. ZAMUNDA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bench boosting here:

    Martinez - Fabianski
    Chilwell - Justin - Coufal - Dallas - Taylor*
    Salah - Bruno - Son - Raphinha - Soucek
    Vardy - Bamford - Watkins

    As Taylor is a doubt for westham game, your thoughts on this:
    A) Taylor to Dias/Cancelo/Stones for a hit
    B) keep Taylor and save BB (I'd be wasting really good bench here of DGW players including a keeper as well)

    I've been planning this dgw for a long time and now Man City are having double kinda makes me leaning towards A.

    1. Here's Tom with the We…
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah I’d do A

      1. ZAMUNDA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers mate. Was trying to avoid the man city roulette but here we go

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A - Cancelo or Dias (safe option)

      1. ZAMUNDA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Dias looks more solid then

    3. HugoSimpson2
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A definitely. MC clean sheets will more than make up for hit

      1. ZAMUNDA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers mate

    4. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yep A. Cancelo or Dias

      1. ZAMUNDA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Pep roulette is inevitabile right