Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Hits from the Bong
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Help. Bench order okay? Should I TC Salah? Thanks

    Martinez
    TAA Stones Coufal
    Salah Bruno Son Grealish Soucek
    Kane Wilson

    Steer Antonio Dallas Taylor

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes
      No

    2. Fuddled FC
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Brave benching Antonio ahead of Soucek and Wilson

    3. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Start Wilson over Antonio?

    4. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I’d play Antonio. Maybe ahead of Grealish. No.

    5. Shteve
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If you have Antonio, you really have to play him!

      1. Hits from the Bong
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Did you not see how bad or unfit he looked against Stockport?

        1. Shteve
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          First game back.. He'll come on a lot for that.

        2. Westfield Irons ⭐️
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Not sure that's 100% true. Because of his size, he has a 'gait' that isn't easy on the eye, unless he's running in to space or 1v1. There was no space v Stockport, who often parked the bus, so he was trudging around in the mud, try to find space in the box. I wouldn't judge him by the match alone.

          1. Hits from the Bong
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            He also takes a little while to get up to speed after injury

  2. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Son > kdb for a hit?

    1. Hits from the Bong
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Nah

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No

    3. Totalfootball
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Go for it

    4. Shteve
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Same predicament and leaning towards a no

  3. Flicka
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed. For this gameweek:
    A) Son
    B) Rashford (-4)

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    3. Here's Tom with the We…
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    4. SilentLemonMan
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I have the exact same dilemma. Currently sticking with Son.

    5. Salan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I like my players potentially playing 180 minutes, so would go option B.

  4. Pukki Party
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts?

    Martinez
    Robbo Cancelo Holding*
    Salah Bruno Son* Soucek
    Vardy Bamford* Adams*

    Ramsdale Ayling Anguissa Taylor
    0ft 0.1itb
    * =sgw

    A) Adams to Watkins -4
    B) Ayling to Furlong/Lowton -4 and play over Holding/Adams
    C) no hits

  5. Here's Tom with the We…
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed out!

    Please help

    Miesler
    Stones Dias Cresswell
    Bruno Son Salah Foden Soucek
    Kane Bamford

    Steer Watkins C Taylor KWP

    A keep as in and no bb
    B Steer to Johnstone -4 and bb
    C Steer and KWP to Johnstone and Coufal -8 and bb

    1. Flicka
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Are you keeping Taylor? Will he even play? A big risk for a BB.

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Play Watkins over Bamford and gtg

      1. Here's Tom with the We…
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks both. Think I’ll play Watkins and save bb

  6. Dion D's Solo Shower
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Would you prioritize getting Antonio or Ogbonna?
    Getting both would mean a -8 ....

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Ogbonna

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Who you losing?

      1. Dion D's Solo Shower
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Either Tierney or Adams.
        If only Tierney was fit, I would have my mind made up

  7. NATSTER
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Watkins or Antonio?

    Selling Martial.

  8. Toplad
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    This GW:

    A) Antonio
    B) Firmino

    Thanks in advance

    1. Big Chris Wood
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Firmino if you can afford

    2. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Interesting

    3. Relaxing
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Thinking of doing DCL to Firmino myself. None of the budget FWD options appeal

  9. Big Chris Wood
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who would you pick Cavani or Antonio?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Antonio - think Martial will play this GW

  10. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Do you know anything more than that? Who are those players? Does Grealish have Covid?

    From 12th of January news: "... and Villa's Trezeguet has confirmed he was one of Villa's nine players to have been infected by the virus."

  11. GROBARI
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Best striker under £8.8m?

    1. Slurpy
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Ings when fit

  12. ch33kych4ppy
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts do you think Reece James will start now he has returned to fitness?

  13. gstegnar
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Would you transfer Son - Kane - Wood for Vardy - KDB - Wicham, get -8, BB in DGW19 and have 10 players on DGW?

    1. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Just Kane to Vardy, save those -8

    2. Mr. Funny Name
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If you captain kdb then I’d say so yes

  14. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A-Grealish+ Taylor+ Bednarek -> Salah+ Mitchell+ coufal (-8)
    Yay or nay?
    &
    B- Kdb TC- yay or nay?

    1. SilentLemonMan
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A Yay...just
      B not right now - looked exhausted against Brighton

  15. Cok3y5murf
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Antonio purely a fixture pick? Smells like bit of a trap

  16. Gunner1290
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Will McCarthy play?

  17. FFFoxy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Any news on Grealish?
    Grealish or Foden for DGW?

  18. Milk, 1 Šuker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who scores more in the DGW? Konsa or C Wilson?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Wilson

      1. Milk, 1 Šuker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers Miggy. He’s in my current starting XI

  19. Mr. Funny Name
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) Kane + Raphina -> Vardy(c) + Foden
    B) Kane + Rodrigo -> Vardy(c) + Antonio
    C) Kane + Maddison -> KDB(c) + Antonio

  20. Bambi
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) Kane and Son
    B) Vardy and Salah (-4)
    C) Kane and Mane
    D) Vardy and Son

    Which one guys?

  21. E25
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    *DCL->Antonio pretty much locked in.
    Balbuena -> which city for a -4??
    A) Dias
    B) Stones
    C) Cancelo
    D) don't take hit and play Dallas

    McCarthy
    Robbo Lowton Konsa
    KDB Salah Bruno Grealish Soucek
    Bamford DCL*

    Forster / Dallas Balbuena Brewster

  22. Kabayan
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    1. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Failed

    2. GROBARI
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Good comment 😀

  23. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Doubting my bench boost now with flappy a doubt still, should I go ahead ?

    Fabianski, bamford, holding, Smith Rowe

    1. RustyBz
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      that looks tragic, don't do it

    2. Big Chris Wood
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah I'm in the same boat with dallas Raphinha and Benderek on the bench

    3. Kabayan
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No

  24. Zlatan F.C
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Repost: Still have 1FT and 1.8m in the bank. What would you do with this team?

    Martinez
    Robbo Coufal Dias Dallas
    Salah Son Grealish Bruno Soucek
    Bamford

    Forster Adams DCL Ferguson

    a) Son and DCL to KDB and Antonio -4
    b) Ferguson and DCL to Stones and Antonio -4
    c) Ferguson to Stones
    d) DCL to Antonio

  25. rubberdignerapids
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone here considering captaining Vardy?

    I feel like he's being overlooked despite how both fixtures work in his favour in terms of counter-attacking- I even think vs Chelsea he's likely to bang 1 or 2 in.

    He's had a long rest (from a minor recurring injury) and is also fairly nailed for both fixtures when compared to KDB or Bruno for instance who are showing signs of fatigue.

    1. In a Rush
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes I’m tempted have salah cap with Vardy vice at the moment

  26. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Gundo or foden?

    1. royals forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Foden

    2. Relaxing
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Foden would be my preference

    3. Milk, 1 Šuker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yeah I have this dilemma. But does he start both?

  27. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    In your opinion what is the best 9m DF combo for this back 7 for the next few GWs

    Martinez Johnstone

    Stones Coufal Cancelo xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx

    Any ideas would be welcomed

  28. Flicka
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Just realized I can bring in Salah but I'd have to lose Vardy.

    (A) Salah + Watkins/Antonio (-4)
    (B) Son + Vardy

    1. royals forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A with Watkins

    2. Latch86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

  29. mdm
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    DCL to:

    A. Antonio
    B. Vardy

    Thanks.

    1. Latch86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. royals forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B

    3. rubberdignerapids
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Vardy- fit, nailed on, on pens and can score against anyone

      whereas Antonio has zero form, has just come back from a long injury and there's no guarantee he will play both matches

      Saying that...I have both lol

  30. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Do you think Strujk will start for Leeds tomorrow?

    1. elwardio
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes phillips still banned