Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Rushfort
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Good day!

    Would you pull the BB chip for this lot?

    Martinez
    Chilwell, Justin, Cresswell, Dias
    Grealish, Salah, Fernandes, Son,
    Bamford, Kane

    Bench: Mccarthy, Dallas, saka, brewster

    Possible Hits (used FT from DCL -> Bamford):

    1) Dallas & Saka to Stones & Soucek = -8
    2) Dallas & Saka to Coufal & Gundogan = -8
    3) Dallas & Saka to Stones * Gundogan = -8

    TY LADS!

    1. Shteve
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Probably not

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A out of those

      Assume you are short of doing Dallas > Stones for -4?

  2. YoungPretender
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    This worth it?

    TAA, DCL & Son > Dias, Antonio & KDB (-8)?

    Dont love the idea of losing TAA but cant get KDB in any other way really.

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd be very nervous of that one but it could work out obviously.

      KDB hasn't shown me he is worth a -8 hit to get him in recently - despite fixtures

  3. BEEZUS
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    BBing this week but can only get Salah and KdB both if I take a -8, which leaves the question:

    A) Pope, Mane, KdB, Antonio (-4)

    B) Pope, Salah, Sterling, Antonio (-4)

    C) Areola, Salah, KdB, Antonio (-8)

    1. cigan
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I like A

  4. Slurpy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bench 2 out of
    Che Adams (lei), Lowton (whu,liv) , Dallas (BHA)

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd play Dallas - best fixture and opportunity to score

    2. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Definitely bench Adams. With the other two it's more difficult. I would maybe take a chance on Dallas. He may even end up at centre mid if Ayling goes back to RB and Alioski stays LB.

  5. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Current team:
    McCarthy, Johnstone
    Robbo, Justin, Coufal, Alioski, Stones
    Salah, Bruno, Son, Soucek, Raphina
    Vardy, Bamford, Adams

    1ft
    What’s transfers should i make here and should i still bench boost?

  6. Bubz
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Allllllrighty then this is me for this GW. Have held off on McCarthy to Martinez for a hit. May change my mind. All in order?

    McCarthy
    Robbo, Cancelo, Cresswell
    KdB(c), Salah(vc), Bruno, Grealish, Raphinha
    Antonio, Bamford

    4.0, Dallas, Lowton, Brewster...

    1.3 itb 0ft no hits

    1. TheDragon
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not concerned about KDB getting a rest?

      Triple captain?

      1. Bubz
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I would be triple captaining him if I wasnt slightly worried about his fatigue levels

        1. TheDragon
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I really want to.....

          Confident in Antonio’s minutes?

          1. Bubz
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            West Ham dont really have any other options do they, Id be happy with 120 minutes anyway

    2. elwardio
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Gtg. Soucek would tempt me for Raph but u have a couple of hammers so good call probably and not worth a hit

    3. ted mcnure
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      gtg

    4. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Looks great - extremely jealous of your no hits.... see my disaster below!!

  7. TheDragon
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    How this look for this week? Not Bench Boosting might triple captain

    Martinez
    Dias, Robertson, Dallas*
    Salah, KDB, Fernandes, Grealish
    Antonio, Bamford*, Adams*
    Johnstone | KWP, Mitchell, Bissouma

    A) Good to go
    B) KWP -> Coufal (bench Adams) (-4)
    C) Adams -> Watkins (-4)
    D) Something more drastic

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd do B

  8. HeyHeyDembo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Play one in GW19:
    A) Grealish
    B) Bamford
    C) Holding

    1. El Lobito 10
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A by a mile

  9. El Lobito 10
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Salah. Overpriced, poor form, tough fixtures ahead. I mean, if you won't captain him, he isn't worth it, and KdB/Bruno/Kane look like the standout captains in the next weeks

    1. PapaWengzz
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      This was my plan and then I caved

    2. STEP rOVERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Lovely. Spread the word

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I now only have Salah and Bruno of those 4 so I will just have to stick with them (+ maybe Son) as my captain options for now!

    4. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Find this comment quite funny given Salah has proven season after season he's worth it.

      He's also scored earlier this season vs. the opponents directly after the DGW whilst the others you've listed did not.

    5. Gazwaz80
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Precisely what I have done, KDB for Salah, gotta risk it for a biscuit 😉

    6. cigan
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Vardy

  10. Rhodes your boat
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) kwp to coufal
    B) Kane to vardy

    Could do both for -4

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Just a . Kane has a very nice fixture.

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        My thoughts too, could do yedlin to Dawson instead of A?

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Is Dawson nailed on the long run though?

          1. Rhodes your boat
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Not sure, had balbuena who seemed to be nailed beforehand, might just go coufal seems to get forward too

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Still got Son?

      Both looks good

      1. Rhodes your boat
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Still have son yep, vardy is that one player who I don’t seem to like owning and being a non-owner!

        1. Boly Would
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I've got Son, and think I'll probably do Kane to Vardy

        2. Don Kloppeone
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I know what you mean. But brought him in this week anyway!

  11. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    No news from Aston Villa? Are most of them ready to play?

  12. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So I decided to take the plunge and go for a YOLO attitude this week and attack the Bench Boost - not often I take a -8 but to unlock a good bench it felt worth it.
    Issue is, I confirmed my transfers and realised too late I had taken a -12 and not a -8 :O 😆

    So now I start the GW on a -12.... lovely ..... not that I have a choice, am I G2G with this BB team?!

    Martinez (x2), Johnstone (x2)
    Robbo (x2), Dias (x2), Stones (x2), Coufal (x2), Dallas
    Salah (x2) (C), Bruno (x2), Son, Soucek (x2), Raphinha
    Vardy (x2), Antonio (x2), Bamford

    GL to all - I just hope my red arrow isn't too large - at least I have got rid of the BB headache for future weeks 😉

    1. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Surely, you havent come all this way(-12) to back out of BB now 🙂 GL to you too.

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Haha nah I can't back out - it's the only possibility of regaining all those lost points!!

    2. Rushfort
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      The headache is real..

      Well obviously we dint get an on form WHU with that fixtures every year!

      GTG!

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Gotta go for things sometimes 😉

    3. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Great side for this week to be fair! Good luck hope the -12 pays off, although hope vardy blanks 😉

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        He probably will knowing my luck!

        Obviously my main fear is KDB but couldn't do it without fielding a much weaker team

    4. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Love it 🙂 I’m thinking v similar... GL mate

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        You too matey. Literally never taken a -12. Fml. 😆

        1. Tsparkes10
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I’m thinking McCarthy, Robo, Lowton, Adams to Martinez, Dias, Stones, Antonio and bb

  13. vandebeek
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So, if Balbuena is isolating, Dawson is almost 100% nailed, isn't he?
    So should i go for:
    A) Dawson+Ziyech
    B)Coufal+ Maddison (or whoever else below 8.0m)?

    1. School of Poch
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B

  14. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who would you play this GW?

    A Dallas (BHA)
    B Holding (NEW)

    Cheers

    1. School of Poch
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Probably A for attacking threat.

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

  15. School of Poch
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Really tricky decisions for GW19 team. Would appreciate any thoughts on the below options.

    Need City cover and really want KDB but finding it hard to find the best route.

    A: Chilwell > Cancelo
    B: Rashford Vardy > KDB Antonio (-4)
    C: Vardy Rashford Riedewald > KDB Antonio 6.0 (-8)

    Martinez
    Chilwell Dallas Coufal Balbuena Neco
    Salah Bruno Son Rashford Riedewald
    Vardy Bamford Watkins

    1FT 0ITB

    1. Tosa86
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      why sell vardy?

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not keen on any of these moves

    3. School of Poch
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I don't want to sell Vardy but also can't see a way to KDB otherwise without selling someone I don't want to lose.

      Am I going to have to accept that I can't get KDB into that team for GW19?

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Could just risk it and go without KDB this week. Very similar ownership levels so it's a straight shootout.

        Would of course give Kev the tip due to fixtures, but he's not had his shooting boots on this season.

        Still a good transfer target after 19 though.

        1. School of Poch
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I think I might have to. Unless you have another suggestion.

          If I go without KDB would you say that A is a good move though?

  16. Paulybaby123
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is Maguire out of the Fulham game if booked v Liverpool?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. ThisTimeNxtYrRodney
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes and Fernandes would be as well.

  17. Black Knights
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Laca & Brewster to Wilson & Antonio -4 worth it if it gives me two more DGWers?

    Martinez*
    Dias*, Coufal*, Ayling
    KdB*, Bruno*, Grealish*, Son
    Wilson*, Antonio*, Kane

    McCarthy, Holding, Raphinha, Dier

  18. PapaWengzz
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Just going Salah (c) for security of starts.

    1. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Same here

    2. Salan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Agree

  19. Davidwes
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Best defender under 5,4 excluding city and west ham?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Cresswell

      1. Davidwes
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Bruh

      2. TheBiffas
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Excluding city and west ham ^. I'd say R James

        1. Davidwes
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Yeah thathas my thinking right now. But is he secured to start both games?

          1. TheBiffas
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            can't answer that one for u mate

  20. Toplad
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    This GW, which one:

    A) KDB, Antonio
    B) Son, Firmino

    Thanks

  21. Kodap
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    BBGW19 Team good to go? Captain choice etc?

    Martinez
    Stones - Dier - Holding
    Salah - KDB (c) - Bruno - Soucek
    Kane - Antonio - Bamford

    Bench: Meslier - Dallas - Anguissa - Coufal

  22. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Villa 35 self isolating then 14 pos last week - now 9 players same as Man City before the Chelsea fixture

  23. swanseag55
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I took out Salah for Rashford last week with the intention of getting Salah straight back in. However shall I get Salah in for Son? Really want Son as think he will do well but Rashford has two away games and his away form is good. Could also keep Rashford the next week as he has Sheff Utd where Son has Liverpool. Or am I over thinking and just do what I originally planned to do?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Son to salah

    2. onceuponatyne
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I did Salah for Son at a -4, with Rashford in my side.
      Son could still do well, but I reckon this is the better move.

  24. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone considering Mané as captain?

    1. AllThePies
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Would definitely if I had him

  25. TheDragon
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Which scores more this week?

    A) Adams + 4
    B) Coufal
    C) Watkins

    1. ted mcnure
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B

  26. Mane Mane Mane
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    **Would really appreciate the help, my team is

    Martinez
    Cancelo Justin Dias Coufal
    Mane Grealish Salah Fernandez Soucek
    Bamford

    Bench - 4.0, Wood, Dallas, Adams

    Should I
    A) keep it as it is, no chip
    B) keep it as it is, play BB
    C) Watkins for Adams (-4) play BB
    D) Johnstone for 4.0 gk, Antonio for Bamford Watkins for Wood (-12) play BB.

  27. McSauce
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    What do I do with Fabianksi? Moyes basically saying it is 50/50!!

    Take a hit to move it out for another DGW?

  28. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    names of 9 Villa players not released but some back to training this Sat

    1. Westfield Irons ⭐️
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      what chance we see training pics on saturday before the deadline? where might they be posted?

    2. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Im wondering also, have Grealish and ready to BB but it would be annoying if noplay from him.
      Game is in 5 days from now, maybe most of them will be back, and we dont know which of them have/had Covid.

  29. Hooky
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone know why Pep played Jesus at left midfield when he brought him on the other day? He managed to lose the ball 5 times in his first 2 minutes on the pitch which I thought was almost Walcott-esque

  30. b91jh
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Button, KWP, DCL to Johnstone, Cancelo, Antonio (-8) and BB?
    Will get 11DGWers plus triple Leeds and Kane.

    Otherwise they will stay on the bench alongside Raphinha.