Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. El Lobito 10
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    "Kevin is so important to us, he will not rest" - Pep before Christmas. Can't see him resting KdB. These two are hard games and they are only recently finding form. No chance he throws a spanner in the works to derail it.

    1. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I agree he won't be rested but I have doubts whether he will dominate like people think based on recent displays

    2. Assisting the assister
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Might take pens though

    3. Studs Up
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Pep said he was "exhausted with 15mins to play". If that's the case, why did he not sub Kev with only two subs used.
      Guess Kev is too important if the result is not secured?

      1. El Lobito 10
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        100% agree. He did win the penalty after all. Sterling is such a donkey

        1. unclesbasement
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Two important points. My mind is nearly 100% made up on TC KDB. Its just the possibility of Villa game being called off

          1. El Lobito 10
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Similar here. Not sure

      2. unclesbasement
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        t

  2. boombaba
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Would you BB with Lookman, Meslier, Bamford, Mitchel ??

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Nah

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No I don't think so

  3. Make ManeMane Make ManeMane
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bench Boost?

    Dier (shu)
    Saka (NEW)
    Dallas (BHA)
    No keeper

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Nah

    2. KanteTouchThis
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I would've if it wasn't for the no keeper dillema

    3. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Def not

    4. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Probably not

    5. Assisting the assister
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Nah

  4. KanteTouchThis
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Planned to BB and had it all set up before Leeds game got cancelled. I think I'm just gonna go for it. What option do you prefer

    A) Kane+Saka to KDB+6.0fwd -4(initially it was gonna be Rodrigo, no idea who to go for now)
    B) Saka to Foden
    C) Saka+Ayling to Foden + 5.0 -4 (Targett or Justin)
    D) Saka + Son to Foden + Ziyech - 4 (hiding behind a couch)

    Thoughts appreciated.

    1. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      C

      1. KanteTouchThis
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        That means no KDB. I don't see a good enough fwd option at 6.0 to justify losing Kane

  5. Sid123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I see a lot of people willing to takes hit on a dgw, me included. How costly is it to rank though if the players play both and don't return. Surely minimal as they break even with just appearance points? Or am I missing something?

    1. No Kane No Gain
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If there’s ever a week for a hit or 2, this is it.

    2. Don Kloppeone
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      It's definitely less of an impact if they have a double and even less if you play BB and bring in 4 additional players' points

      1. Sid123
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers, it would be without benchboost for me though

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • 6 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Just depends who is going out and who comes in..... GL whatever you decide!

          1. Sid123
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            What would you go with this team out of interest?
            Martinez forster
            Dallad dier coufal stones cancelo
            Bruno kdb rashford saka Smith rowe
            Bamford kane dcl

            1. Don Kloppeone
              • 6 Years
              3 years, 2 months ago

              If you can get good replacements for DCL, Saka/ ESR and Forster then it’s worth BB I’d say

              1. Sid123
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                3 years, 2 months ago

                Will have a play around! Cheers

    3. Assisting the assister
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      You are effectively bringing a player in for a net 2 points with a massive upside if you bring in a DGW player vs a single - hit away

      1. Sid123
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks for this

  6. Paulybaby123
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Maguire

    Or

    Saiss/Bellerin

    Safer option?

    1. Sid123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Long term bellerin. Maguire on 4 yellow cards. Cannot see him getting booked in the pool game then mosses Fulham. How about bissaka if you want united?

  7. b91jh
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed... any comments would be appreciated.

    Button, KWP, DCL to Johnstone, Cancelo, Antonio (-8) and BB?
    Will get 11DGWers plus triple Leeds and Kane.

    Otherwise they will stay on the bench alongside Raphinha.

    1. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I would do that. I have Cancelo and Antonio myself.

      I'm on a -4 currently and could get Johnstone for a -8 and boost with him Lowton, Raphinha and Dallas.

      1. b91jh
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers.

        Would u prefer Kane/Raphinha to KDB/Antonio over bench boosting? No KDB in my current squad (or BB squad) is little worrying to me.

        1. BeWater
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I don't have KDB myself. I think your original plan of Johnstone, Antonio and Cancelo seems good. Would you need to take further his for KDB?

          1. b91jh
            • 6 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Couldn't get KDB with a reasonable bench with less than -12 tho..

            So it is KDB vs bench boost for me.

            1. BeWater
              • 3 Years
              3 years, 2 months ago

              Probably bench boost then.

  8. fridge
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi all, my bench boost is out the window so working out the best moves this week. Any help on the below much appreciated!

    McCarthy
    TAA. Coufal. Lowton (Dallas) (Balbuena)
    Salah. Fernandes. Soucek. Son. Raphinha
    Kane. Bamford (Wood)

    A) Kane > Vardy
    B) Kane, Balbuena > Vardy & Stones (-4)
    C) Kane, Wood, Balbuena > Vardy, Antonio, Stones (-8)
    D) TAA & Son > Stones & KDB (-4)

  9. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    KDB will play then rest for Cheltenham game imo

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      You would think so imo

  10. osceola31909
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Use FH or just do (-8)

    A. Non FH team with -8 (could be -4 with Mane instead of Salah)

    Martinez
    Dias - Cancelo - Coufal
    Salah - KDB - Bruno - Son
    Antonio- Wilson- Bamford

    Subs: Areola - Dallas - Mitchell - Anguissa

    B. FH team

    Martinez
    Robertson - Stones - Coufal
    Salah - KDB - Bruno - Grealish - Soucek
    Vardy - Antonio

    Subs: Steele - Mitchell - Strujik - Davis

    1. KanteTouchThis
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A with Mane

      1. ted mcnure
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        this

  11. -GK22-
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    DGW GTG?

    MARTINEZ
    ZOUMA, STONES, ROBBO
    SALAH, BRUNO, raphinha, son
    ANTONIO, VARDY, bamford

    4, JONES, Dallas, TAYLOR

    Would you play jones over raphinha?

    Is Robbo a good captain choice?

    1. cigan
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No to the first one - likely to start 1 game out of 2
      Salah, Bruno or Vardy before Robbo for captain

    2. AllThePies
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      -seems good
      -flip a coin
      -for sure

  12. BremerHB
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Team A or B?

    A) Bench Boost (-4)

    Martinez - Johnstone
    Robbo - Dallas - Coufal - Stones - KWP
    Salah (C) - Bruno - Son - Raphinha - Anguissa
    Antonio - Kane - Bamford

    B) No chip (-8)

    Martinez
    Robbo - Dallas - Coufal - Cancelo
    Salah - Bruno - KDB (C) - Raphinha
    Kane - Bamford
    (Johnstone - Anguissa - KWP - Mitchell)

    1. BremerHB
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Rubbish post. Totally mixed myself up! No KWP in the second draw - 4.3 fodder FWD!

  13. StoichkovFPL
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Do we have something more about DCL injury?

    Few days ago Ancelotti said "that's not an important injury but we want to keep him safe...I think soon he can recover".

    Do we have something more, any training pictures etc?

  14. AllThePies
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Salah (tc) or..

    ...hear me out...

    ...Robbo (tc)

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Salah

      1. AllThePies
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        So tempting though.

        ...Of more concern is that I have precisely zero City players for a double-home-banker gameweek

    2. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      why arent you putting kdb in the conversation?

      1. AllThePies
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Salah + Bruno + Kane = no room to date... -4 to swap one of them for him you think?

        1. unclesbasement
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Depends if you can get kane back for a later gwk. I just cant feel happy with my team without KDB this gwk.

    3. De Gea is GOAT
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Considering Salah TC

  15. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Tierney, Kane to Chilwell, Vardy (C) for -4?

    1. BremerHB
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I don't mind that actually.

  16. ABCDEFC
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Have 9DGW, with Son and Bamford

    Worth a Bench Boost?
    McCarthy, Dallas, Raphinha, Adams

  17. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Re Don Kloppeone Tend to agree with you, can't see him dominating. Foden more likely to impress

  18. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    How essential is Salah this gw?

    1. unclesbasement
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      risky not having him imo

    2. Salan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      You never know Salah when and how he is explosive.

  19. manu4life99
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Worth a 4pt hit?

    Laca, Kane OUT
    Vardy, Antonio IN

  20. hogree
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Narrowed down to these two options - Which of these do you prefer?

    A) Robbo + Son --> Stones + KDB (-4)
    B) McCarthy + Bamford --> Mendy + Antonio (-4)

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A could be good, but maybe Dias instead of Stones?

  21. Pukki Party
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts?

    Martinez
    Robbo Cancelo Holding*
    Salah Bruno Son* Soucek
    Vardy Bamford* Adams*

    Ramsdale Ayling Anguissa Taylor
    0ft 0.1itb
    * =sgw

    A) Adams to Watkins -4
    B) Ayling to Dawson -4 and play over Holding/Adams
    C) no hits

  22. aidmata
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi guys, I know there's a lot of these posts flying about but really at a loss as to where to begin with this week. Original plan was BB but that's been messed up and now really concerned re no City.

    McCarthy Areola

    Robertson Coufal Balbuena Lowton Dallas

    Rafinha Rashford Bruno Soucek Salah

    Adams Bamford Kane

    Got 1FT and 0ITB so very little room to manoeuvre for City assets - any help much appreciated!

    Cheers

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      That's tough. Wouldn't use BB but no good options how to get a Mancity player either.

    2. ted mcnure
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Robertson to Dias, or Raphinia to Gundo look like your options..gl

    3. Assisting the assister
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I have similar team and really pondering Robbo, Raf and Kane to KDB, Cancelo/Dias and Antonio -8
      6 games vs 4 - so should pay back.

    4. aidmata
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks guys - appreciated

  23. highsguy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Still undecided on this -8 hit (playing BB)... pls decide for me

    Adams Raphinha Dallas OUT
    Antonio Lookman Stones IN

    team:
    Johnstone* (McCarthy)
    Robbo* Coufal* Justin* Holding (Dallas)
    Son Salah* Bruno* Soucek* (Raph)
    Kane Bamford (Adams)

    1. Alli In
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I've a very similar team and situation and I'm considering just Adams to Antonio, no hit, and playing BB with McCarthy, Lowton (instead of you have Holding), Dallas, and Lookman (instead of you have Raphinha). Your McCarthy, Holding, Dallas, Raphinha is a similar strength bench to mine I think, I have two DGW players, but your SGW players have much better fixtures and should do as well. Your question is basically Raphinha and Dallas to Lookman and Stones for -8. I think Raphinha and Lookman are about quits this week, so it's Stones vs Dallas. You need Stones to clean sheet both games, and maybe for Dallas not to, for it to pay back. It could happen, and Stones has good fixtures to come, but so does Dallas, and he may have a DGW before long.

      Long story short, it's a toss up, sorry!

      My remaining worry about the BB is, are we fully confident McCarthy will be straight back? I don't want to BB without a second keeper!

  24. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who gets more this week?

    A) KDB, Adams
    B) Raphinha, Vardy, +4 points

  25. the vanisher
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    For a -8:

    Foden, Soucek Coufal IN
    for
    Son, Anguissa, Pieters OUT

    yes or no?

    1. Pepeye
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. Rhodes your boat
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Tough, probably yes just but losing son is risky for a hit!

    3. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

  26. Bennerman
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Does anyone know what's going on with Villa regarding a press conference?

    Not included on the FFS lists and doesn't seem to be any hint about it on the Villa website.

    Wonder whether for some Covid-related reason they're not doing one, or are doing it tomorrow or something.

    Mysterious, and Villa are the team/players a lot of people are itching to find out about...

    1. ppv
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Villa not playing until midweek

      1. Bennerman
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Ah yeah, of course, duh.

        Cheers

  27. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) Son + Bamford (save FT)
    B) Son + Antonio (bench Bamford)
    C) Soucek + Vardy (bench Bamford) -4

    1. StoichkovFPL
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not C
      Im between A and B myselfe..

    2. BremerHB
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A I reckon.

    3. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    4. Tomsk
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Probable Antonio outscores Bamford imo,so B.

  28. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Thoughts on these for a -8-

    Son, balbuena dier for KDB Coufal and targett

  29. Ruinenlust
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) Robbo and Son -> Stones and KDB (-4)

    or

    B) Dallas and Son -> Stones and Foden (-4)

    ?

  30. Angelic upstart
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Sell Salah for KDB for a hit?

    1. Fuddled FC
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      really? no

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not for a hit no.

    3. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Madness

    4. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No