Pro Pundits - Simon

How holding on to your chips and transfers can lead to long-term FPL success

There is a lot of talk in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community about the importance of patience and knowing when to act and when to wait is widely accepted as a crucial element of success.

But even a casual perusal of the desperate lamentations that echo across fantasy forums on a Saturday evening will illustrate that, while we fantasy managers often fail to act when we should, we very often act when we shouldn’t.

In fact, it’s very hard not to act, it feels good to act, especially after a bad Gameweek.

So why is patience such a virtue when it comes to fantasy football? What does science have to say about this? The answer might involve marshmallows.

The Marshmallow Experiment

Aside from perhaps the Stanford Prison and Milgram experiments (1971 & 1963 respectively), few psychological experiments have gained the notoriety of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment (1972).

In this study, young children were sat in a room with a marshmallow placed in front of them and were told that they could eat the marshmallow now or, if they waited 15 minutes, they would be given a second marshmallow.

Inevitably, some of the children ate the first marshmallow while some avoided temptation long enough to receive the second marshmallow. And some of them just cried.

Salah benched as Matip returns for Liverpool's Palace visit

What was most interesting about the Marshmallow Experiment is that they followed up with the children 10 years later and found that those who had resisted eating the first marshmallow had largely scored better in their SATs, performed better in school generally and even had healthier BMIs.

While there is some debate as to why this correlation between the ability to delay gratification and these various measures of success should exist, it exists nonetheless.

Much like tomato ketchup and a certain Irish stout, good things come to those who wait.

While the results of the Marshmallow Experiment are still debated, the idea that there is a link between ability to delay gratification and improved prospects of success in humans has, for years, been supported by high profile and influential figures ranging from psychologist Jordan Peterson to motivational speaker Tony Robbins, both of whom, in fact, consider this ability to be among the most important indicators of success in both children and adults.

Applying the Theory to FPL

So can we as FPL managers learn anything from this?

Well, one very obvious parallel exists if you replace marshmallows with free transfers.

You can have two, but you have to avoid using the first one.

I’m a huge believer in saving the second transfer whenever possible and, while I’m not aware of any studies on the subject, I know that there is a fairly strong correlation between the success of my transfers, how well I’m doing in FPL generally and how often I’ve been able to carry a transfer.

The most obvious reason for why this might be is that, whereas with one transfer your options are limited to players within the same price bracket as the one you’re getting rid of, with two transfers you have far, far more options.

A second reason might be that waiting a gameweek to make two transfers instead of one per gameweek gives you more time to think and reduces the likelihood that you will make some sort of knee-jerk mistake that you end up regretting.

A similar principle could be applied to when you make your transfers. This season, perhaps more than any others, has shown the benefit of waiting as late as possible to make your changes.

It’s generally accepted that access to more, and more current information will typically improve decision quality and FPL is likely no exception.

Of course, being patient is easier said than done, especially off the back of a bad Gameweek where the temptation to make a change, any change, is huge.

Here, we might take a leaf out of the children of the Marshmallow Experiment’s book in that some, in an attempt to avoid temptation, simply put their hands over their eyes.

In an FPL context, this might mean avoiding looking at player prices or even spending too much time thinking about your next transfer until a day or two before the next Gameweek begins.

The principle of delaying gratification could equally apply to when you use your chips.

Serious FPL managers have long been distinguished by their tendency to keep their wildcards and chips until later in the season and, while it doesn’t always work out as intended, this approach confers all sorts of benefits including the opportunity to take advantage of Double Gameweeks, a typically higher team value to invest in players and more knowledge of who the best teams and players are.

Of course, there are also disadvantages to being patient.

Just as cautious cavemen in the Paleolithic Era were less likely to be eaten by sabre-tooth tigers, they were also less likely to find food themselves, particularly if they were too cautious.

The benefits of delaying action in FPL must always be weighed against the benefits of taking it and distinguishing which is the correct course and when, is and always has been a big part of the skill to this game.

However, knowing that a bias towards patience generally (be it natural or forced through will) is likely to produce better results overall, should be a positive step in the direction of making better and more deliberate FPL decisions.

1,918 Comments Post a Comment
  1. gellinmagellan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is it crazy to go without KDB this gw?

    1. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Very

    2. highsguy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Feel like anyone with a lot of value tied up in Kane Son Salah have to go without KDB, myself included

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Value should never interfere with making decisions. It should be considered.

        Will KdB outscore Son and Kane in the next few weeks? If you think the answer is yes, you should move to make the switch regardless of losing the value.

        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          To clarify, when I mean considered, I mean, taken into consideration in terms of fund allocation but it should never be a reason you keep a player who you think will not score as well as another.

          1. highsguy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Yeah you're right. I think what I meant is I would eventually want to bring one of those three back (if I had to take one out for KDB), and probably wouldn't be able to do so without a reshuffle.

    3. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If easy route then yes. If only possibility is dropping Salah for him then no

      1. gellinmagellan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        These are the routes, will have to lose both Son and Kane

        A) Son + Kane > KDB + Martial
        B) Son + Kane > KDB + Antonio (leaves 3 ITB)

    4. Gross Blank Point
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      If he blanks then it's a great move, if he hauls then you'll be wondering why you didn't have him.

    5. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Think so but can understand the dilemma if you have Kane and Son

      1. gellinmagellan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I have both and will have to lose both to accommodate him, other option is remove Salah/Fernandes

    6. boombaba
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I am keeping Son. Great fixture and KDB may not play full mins.

    7. Yes Ndidi
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No, but the next few weeks look good for City as well. I could only do it this week by taking Son out and taking a hit, and I can't bring myself to do that, based on how leggy he looked the other night.

      1. gellinmagellan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I'm in the same position. My options are

        A) Son + Kane > KDB + Martial
        B) Son + Kane > KDB + Antonio (leaves 3 ITB)

        And I don't want to lose both Son and Kane tbh

    8. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I think so.

  2. highsguy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Worth a -8?

    Adams Raphinha Dallas OUT
    Antonio Lookman Stones IN

    1. manu4life99
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. ted mcnure
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No

    3. Tsparkes10
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Nah

    4. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'm not a fan of Lookman as an owner for the past 5 weeks - Soucek instead?

      1. highsguy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Have Soucek. Thinking I might just avoid transferring Raph. But want Adams>Antonio so I might do McCarthy>Areola instead.

  3. manu4life99
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is Saiss a rotation risk given Nuno comments?

    1. Eddie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Saiss is a risk regardless of Nunos comments no?

    2. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      What comments?

  4. b91jh
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    No KDB. Captain:

    A) Salah
    B) Bruno
    C) Soucek
    D) Cresswell

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    2. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    3. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

    4. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

  5. SuperG
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Anyone know if Grealish is fit to play in the upcoming DGW?

  6. manu4life99
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Rash or Salah(-4)

    1. Cookie Kid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Salah

  7. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) Robo, Raph to Dias, Foden (-4) (bench McCarthy, Lowton, Dallas, Adams)

    B) McCarthy, Robo, Lowton, Adams to Martinez, Dias, Stones, Antonio (-12) and bb with Johnstone, Dallas, Raph, Bamford

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      That -12 is insane and I would avoid

  8. Eddie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    I don't know which of the Villa players had or still have COVID. Would love more info.

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      The fact grealish hasnt been seen reversing into anything for a while is worrying.

  9. V-2 Schneiderlin
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    any thoughts on this FH team?

    Johnstone (Areola)
    Targett, Coufal, Stones,
    Salah, Fernandes, KDB (c), Foden, Soucek
    Antonio, Vardy

    (Clark, Ajaji, Brewster)

    1. FFSbet.com
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Some risky players on FH there,Target and Bruno on 4 YC not sure Foden will play both.
      Would get more attacking defense with Cancelo

      1. V-2 Schneiderlin
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        thanks, good point re. Targett - didn't know that - Fernandes though I will have to risk given high ownership in general I'm not willing to risk leave him out

  10. FFSbet.com
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Better option lads?

    A) Maguire + Wilson ➡️ Cancelo + Antonio (-4)

    B) Maguire ➡️ Cancelo

    C) Regulion ➡️ Cancelo

    1. Mcgugan
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A is moving 2 DGWers to 2 other DGWers.
      I think C is your best option there, but why not do Wilson > Antonio

      1. FFSbet.com
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Yes that is ok move,want Cancelo long term too.
        Maguire could easy become SGW player with Pool away if he gets YC.

  11. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So antonio fit?

    1. Pedersen
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      90 min in cup the other day

      1. boombaba
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Still fit

  12. Cookie Kid
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Mane to KDB for -4?

    TC on Salah

  13. L S P
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bottomed:

    Any opinions on these mulled-over transfers?

    A) Targett->Coufal
    B) Targett/Lacazette->Coufal/Antonio OR Cavani for -4
    C) Robbo/Laca->Coufal/Vardy for -4

  14. Pedersen
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is it worth doing: Son -> Bruyne (-4)?. Would keep Bruyne to gw 23 then

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. Mcgugan
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd say yes, especially if you will captain and are holding KDB

    3. yalala
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Kdb is a trap, don't get trapped

    4. tinear
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Im on the same boat. What a headache.

    5. Pedersen
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Peproulette might end up playing him 1game only, which is why I am hesitant. Actually want 2 city defs, but all my defs are keepers...

  15. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who scores more this week - Antonio or Coufal?

    1. dimo_fpl
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Coufal imo

  16. yalala
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    TC Soucek let's go

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      You're joking right?

      1. yalala
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Just watch!

  17. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Do we think fabianski makes it ? Maybe 1 of the 2

    1. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I agree,I am benching him and playing Martinez

  18. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    And the standout captain this gw is?

    1. V-2 Schneiderlin
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      KDB

    2. Fuddled FC
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      there is no stand out captain..

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      There are two standout captains.

      KdB and Salah.

      Between the two there are strong pros for both and it comes down to which set of strengths you feel will get you a bigger score.

      1. Boz
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        This

    4. dimo_fpl
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Salah / KDB
      Mind you, I’m going for Vardy

  19. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    is Cresswell justifying the price difference with coufal?

    1. STONEROSES
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Over the piece, yes

  20. alfast1c
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Mendy
    AWB, Chilwell, Dias, Cresswell, Cancelo
    Bruno, Salah, KDB, Grealish
    Wilson

    What u think of this FREE HIT team ?

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I think Vardy is worth getting over some defenders.

  21. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Sacrice Kane to get Vardy

    Or

    Sacrifce Son to get Salah

    1. dimo_fpl
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Salah

  22. FantasyHero
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    So fabianski might not be fit for the first game.
    Anyone know if Martinez is a risk? Not sure what villa situation is

    1. Mcgugan
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      No news, but I think worst case he plays 1. Wouldn't think he is a risk really. If it is him or Fab i'd start Martinez

  23. dimo_fpl
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    My squad, 1M itb :
    Johnstone
    Dias Cancelo Coufal Justin
    Salah Bruno Foden Soucek
    Vardy Bamford

    Martinez, Son, Dallas, Adams

    Used my free transfer and am going to BB, but is Adams -> Antonio for a -4 worth it still?

    1. Yes Ndidi
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes. 2 good fixtures vs 1 meh one. Should repay the 4 with interest.

  24. Mcgugan
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    KDB Triple Captain? If I knew he was starting both I would, just slightly concerned. And maybe a chance somebody gets a triple GW in the future?

  25. TheBiffas
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Opinions?

    A) Fabianski + Mitchell
    B) Fabianski + 4.6 defender (not WHU) -4
    C) Martinez + Dawson or other 4.6 defender

    1. TheBiffas
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      (bench boosting)

    2. Mcgugan
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      C comfortably.

    3. STONEROSES
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      C.

    4. dimo_fpl
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      C

  26. b91jh
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    A) Kane/Raphinha to Antonio/KDB (-4), TC KDB
    B) -8 to BB, squad as follows

    Martinez
    James Dias Cresswell Cancelo
    Salah Bruno Grealish Soucek
    Antonio Kane

    Johnstone Bamford Raphinha Dallas

    Which to go?

  27. STONEROSES
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Worth bench boosting with 5 SGW players (McCarthy, Dallas, Bamford, Son, Brewster) ?

  28. De Gea is GOAT
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Are we expecting more team news before deadline guys? Thanks

  29. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Kdb➡️Salah was my hokey dokey plan for this period.

    Last time I decided to back out on this very same plan Salah did really well.

    So I'm asking should I not over think it and stick to the plan?

    Well rested Salah v tired Kdb?

  30. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Capt ster vc salah
    Or capt ster vc foden?

    1. dimo_fpl
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      VC Salah. Don’t captain and vice captain players from same team