Pro Pundits

Getting an FPL season back on track after disappointing start


Simon March won the worldwide Fantasy Premier League title in 2014/15 and provides regular tips and advice for Fantasy Football Scout readers.


The midway part of the season is as good a time as any to reflect on what’s worked and what hasn’t so far. Unfortunately, in my case, it’s mostly a case of the latter. Like many, I’m looking to get my season back on track and so this article will focus on how I plan to approach the second half of the season.

I’m currently ranked 335k with 1147 points. It isn’t a disastrous position to be in at this point of the season (there are still over 7.5 million other managers below me) but it’s well below the ‘Top 100k’ minimum target I usually set myself for the halfway stage. 

What makes it feel worse is that I wasted my Triple Captain on Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) in Double Gameweek 19 and have also already used my Free Hit, two chips which have helped to bail me out of such positions in the past. I’m also wary of the fact that people above and below me will have both these chips to play and, thus, they have a pending advantage

What Hasn’t Worked

Supporter Bias

Latest injury updates on Werner and Pulisic as James stars in Chelsea win

I’ve made a lot of the same mistakes that I often warn about in these articles. Firstly, I’ve allowed my real world club allegiances as a Chelsea supporter to influence my FPL decisions, mostly to my detriment. Timo Werner (£9.2m) has, somehow, managed to be an ever-present for me this season and I’ve also experimented with Hakim Ziyech (£8.1m) and Kai Havertz (£8.2m), none of whom have really delivered.

Werner’s omnipresence is partly due to bigger problems always existing elsewhere but, mostly, it’s because, when I watch Chelsea, I want a horse in the game. I definitely don’t want any part of me, however subconscious, hoping we don’t score. 

But any truly rational FPL manager would have seen the mounting problems with Werner for what they were and cut ties long ago. Instead, it’s been the triumph of hope over expectation. The issue I have now, of course, is injuries elsewhere and Werner having a decent run of fixtures…

I also think that the fact I had a solid 5k finish last season has maybe freed me subconsciously to be a bit more relaxed and maybe even experimental with how I have approached this season. I’d also probably gotten too used to decisions paying off last season that I haven’t invested enough thought into them this season.

Leaning Too Much Into the Chaos

Secondly, this season has been chaotic for everyone and, while I can point to a couple of things in my own season that I think were particularly unfortunate, I have to admit that a lot of my problems were self-inflicted.

Rather than trying to find order in the chaos, I’ve leaned into it, trying to adopt an aggressive style of play that hasn’t really worked out. Early transfers have really cost me. Most notably by transfer-in of Villa and Newcastle players immediately before their fixture was called off, and jettisoning Son Heung-min (£9.7m) in Gameweek 4 on the news of his ‘long-term injury’ which, being charitable, turned out to be ‘pessimistic’ on behalf of Jose Mourinho. That decision alone cost me almost 30 points in just that one Gameweek, not to mention a wasted transfer to bring Son back later.

I’ve also taken five hits already this season which is probably more than I’ve taken in the past five seasons combined. Some have worked out but, overall, I’m in the red there.

Most of these problems can be solved by recalibrating my patience levels. I need to be less patient with underperforming players but more patient with the timing of my transfers. If I miss out on an opportunity because of price changes, I’ll just need to be creative and find another one. This season is already way too volatile to be adding to the chaos by inviting the risk of early transfers.

Too Much Tinkering

Finally, while we’re all on the back foot this season when it comes to transfers, my transfer history is beginning to look a little farcical. Of the 20 transfers I’ve made so far this season, almost half have involved Son or Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) and, sometimes, it’s just swapping back and forth between the two. It’s not too much in hindsight to say that I could have stuck with either (or both) this season and would probably have been better off.

My best seasons have always been built on four to five fairly consistent players who, once I’ve identified them, I try not to touch. The benefit of this approach, I find, is that, once you’ve established this core, you can use your transfers far more productively elsewhere, allowing you to build proactively and take advantage of form and fixture swings.

Of course, there are more challenges to this method than normal this season, but it’s something I think I need to try to get back to. Identifying them is the difficult part but Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (£11.3m) definitely appears to be one, Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish (£7.7m) is perhaps another and Son may be a third. 

A Man City defender looks a sensible, maybe even ‘essential’ option and, then, I need to find a striker I can hang my hat on. As it stands, I have two forwards in Werner and Callum Wilson (£6.6m) who have one assist between them in the past six and only two goals (both from Wilson) since Gameweek 9.

West Ham’s Michail Antonio (£6.3m) has already come in and has done well and an injury-free Danny Ings at Southampton would be ideal. Alternatively, there are few more reliable options this season than Spurs’ Harry Kane if I can stretch that far price-wise.

Keep Calm and Carry On

Going forward, it’s important not to panic. If I’d scored an extra 2.2 points a Gameweek so far this season, I would be in the top 100k. If I can beat the 10k average by 5.2 points for the rest of the season, I could even make it in there. Maybe that’s a tall order, but it could also be just one or two good, consistent scorers added to the team, some good captain choices and a bit of luck away.

There is huge temptation in these moments to try and make the gap up all in one Gameweek with some massive differential captain choices. There are some FPL managers we know of who are very capable of doing this but I don’t think that’s my game unfortunately and, while I’m not exactly risk-averse, I can’t help thinking that I’m more likely to end up digging a bigger hole if I start down that route right now.

It’s also worth remembering that, if you are trying to chase down a rank or rival that is currently far ahead of you, they have their own challenges ahead of them. I’ve spoken previously of the ‘house money effect’; the psychological state that comes from being in a winning position and often leads to higher risk-taking or more relaxed decision-making. Rather than focusing on overtaking them, you might just need to put yourself in a position to take advantage when they slip up.

Finally, I’d encourage FPL managers who are not having the best of seasons so far not to despair but, instead, try and enjoy the process of getting their season back on track. My favourite season as an FPL manager was actually not the obvious one but, in fact, was a few years earlier in 2011/12 when I had a truly disastrous start to the season (I mean practically bottom of the whole world stuff) which went on for months. All my friends in my mini-leagues were making fun of me (yes, this is also my supervillian origin story) but, slowly over the course of the season, I managed to drag myself back into things, ended up winning my mini leagues and scored my first top 10k finish.

That was the season that I truly fell in love with FPL (and, indeed, when I discovered Fantasy Football Scout and the FPL community) and that really is why it’s fun; it’s not so much the winning, it’s the challenge. It’s the things that make you want to research the stats and plan out your transfer strategy.  As Carlo Ancelotti once said “Pressure? Pressure is the engine of life.”

For me, nothing is off the table right now, including a Wildcard. Patience does not mean inaction and the thorough fixing of my team’s problems with a view to maximising its performance over the coming gameweeks could be just what I need to get my season back on track.

If fixtures, injuries and form suggest it could offer a long-term advantage, I could well be pushing the button ahead of Gameweek 20. Like everyone, I have an eye on the potential blank and double gameweeks coming but, also, I think that these past couple of weeks have illustrated that these aren’t necessarily reliable things to build your season around. The better play might be to just play what’s in front of us and roll with the punches when they come.

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867 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Fernandito
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Would you start
    A Cresswell or
    B Watkins

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Watkins, since I just dropped him

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

  2. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who to Play ??
    A- Dallas NEW (A)
    B- Coufal CRY (A)
    C- James WOL

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      James

      1. OptimusBlack
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Cheers

  3. MysticMac17
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who would you start this week out of the following three players? (can only start one and I am already starting Robbo).

    Raphinha
    Coufal
    TAA

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Raphina

  4. Danno - Emre Canada
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Would you rather have Kane or DCL this week if you had Son?

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Kane

    2. SuperG
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I’d have Kane over any striker. That said, a double-up of Kane and DCL have been cornerstones of my current 20k rank, so if you can get them both, do.

    3. Saka_me_sideways
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I think Kane sounds the obvious pick, but DCL has Newcastle and Leeds next... he could be a great choice.

      1. Danno - Emre Canada
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks would you lose Bamford to have Kane and DCL though?

        1. Kiwivillan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          Keep Bamford for Newcastle. Villa should've scored 4-5 past them

  5. Slitherene
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is this team too differential?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Maguire Coufal
    Bruno Rashford Barnes Saka
    Jesus Ings Wilson

    1. Bonus magnet
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes

    2. Volley127
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yes. Mostly the forwards.

    3. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I would love my rival in ML having that forward line

  6. Bonus magnet
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Which teams have DGW 26

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      See Ben Crellin - to confusing to explain here

    2. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      There will probably only be 3 or 4 games in 29.

  7. WALOR
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    for draft league:
    Soucek OUT
    Pereira (WBA) IN?

  8. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who would you play this GW?

    A Robbo (tot)
    B Dallas (new)

    Cheers

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      still Robbo

    2. Saka_me_sideways
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Robbo

    3. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Robbo easy

  9. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who would you keep from Raphina and Soucek? 5.4 and 5.2 selling prices

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Raphina

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks. Just checking and Stats actually still suggest Soucek is the better keep.

    2. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Rafa, I'm still not sure. Is it worth a - 4....raphina against Newcastle or soucek against Palace?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Raphina is probably the better pick this week. Soucek longer term perhaps. And he’s cheaper to bench. I think I’m just going to go KDB >> Son. No hit.

      2. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Or KDB >> Gundog (no hit)

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          I think so. So it's back to son vs gundo. Want son long term and I wouldn't mind seeing how city set up for a week first. Hmm......

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 2 months ago

            Headaches 🙂

    3. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'll likely be selling Raphinha after this week. Soucek honestly on borrowed time too, but no rush.

  10. tabby98
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Mccarthy, Johnstone
    Robbo, Stones, Coufal, Justin, Alioski
    Salah, Son, Bruno, Soucek, Raphinha
    Vardy, Bamford, Adams

    2FT £0 ITB

    A) Vardy + Robbo --> Kane & Cancelo
    B) Vardy + Robbo ---> Antonio & Cancelo (Bring in Kane for Adams next week)
    C) Vardy + Robbo ---> Watkins & Cancelo (Bring in Kane for Adams next week)

    Which is better?

  11. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Any new news on Rashford?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Nope

      1. FPL Daniel
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        too bad. ok I am swallowing price changes tonight then

    2. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Highly doubt OGS will risk him with arsenal game 3 days away.

  12. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Sheff Utd just need to beat Bristol City to get a DGW26, correct?

    Villa would have Leeds (H) and Sheffield United (A) as fixtures.

    Grealish (C), Watkins, Martinez.

    1. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Grealish triple cap fixture?

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        If he looks fantastic at LW beforehand then why not? Kane is the safe option though.

  13. JJeyy
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    TAA to Cancelo -4?

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Not for a hit.

  14. Heiro
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Hi all,

    Would appreciate some advice here!

    Martinez
    Justin/Stones/Holding/Dallas/Mitchel
    Gundugan/Bruno/Salah/Son
    Bamford

    Vardy/Brewster/Souchek

    Shall I just field the above or move out Bamford/Souchek to someone for -4?

  15. JJO
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Man city press was today?
    Anything worth mentioning?

    1. WALOR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      they're gonna win the league

    2. Bojangles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      not giving any team news for the big 6 till last minute is the norm these days ,

  16. Saka_me_sideways
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who would you play out of,

    A) Cresswell(cry)
    B) Raphinha(new)

    Keeping in mind I’m already playing Bamford.

  17. gomez123
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Vardy & TAA > A) Kane & Cancelo
    B) Kane & Dias

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A.

  18. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Who first on the bench? Probably needed with Rashford staring

    A. Smith Rowe
    B. Holding

    Smith Rowe for the up side ?

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A

  19. CoracAld2831
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    My team:

    G: Areola
    D: Justin-Coufal-Stones
    M: Son-Fernandes-Salah-Lookman-Soucek
    F: Wilson-Antonio

    Subs: Johnstone-Adarabioyo-Vardy-Mitchell

    I have already used my FT by replacing De Bruyne with Son (2ixh might have been a mistake). Is it worth a -4 to change Vardy out too or should I wait until next GW?

    I was thinking Watkins, Bamford, Kane, Lacazette, Abraham, Calvert-Lewis, Maupay or Richarlison as replacement for Vardy in GW20 and then put Kane on GW21?

  20. Flair
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    That .2 saved for KDB->Gundo is useless with a 6M~ budget but I wish to make the transfer anyways before price changes... should really train myself out of this sort of thinking.

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Same. Not waiting for pressers tomorrow?

      1. Flair
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        I am. Staying patient.

    2. JohnnyRev7
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Why don't both of yous link your teams? Just curious.

  21. Boomerang V
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Which teams will probably be the ones to target in DGW26?

    Just read a few posts up Villa will be one, most likely.

    1. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Villa and city are the clear cut ones.

    2. Eat my goal!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Villa have a lot of games to catch up

    3. djman102
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Everton also have 2 games to catch up on, plus a chance at doubling in 26 and playing in 29.

  22. Redranger
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Worth getting rid of Vardy this week for a -4 or hold until next GW?

  23. FPL_BUCCANEER
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Play two of the following

    A)Chilwell
    B)Coufal
    C)Soucek
    D)Watkins
    E)Lowton

    1. Hybrid.power
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A and E

    2. CoracAld2831
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      B and D

  24. Hybrid.power
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Bit of a benching headache. Bench 3:

    Holding
    Saka
    Soucek
    Pieters
    Lindelof
    Zouma

    1. CoracAld2831
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      All of the bottom three.

    2. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      HSP, Zouma wouldn't be subbed in if he doesn't start anyway. S for Soucek.

      1. Hybrid.power
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        Thanks fellas. Gonna be a tough decision I think

        1. ivantys
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          If in doubt just play the attackers. I'm not sure if Lindelof starts too.

  25. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Would you drop any of these 3 next week for Kane?

    DCL, Antonio or Bamford?

    1. Chandler Bing
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Bamford if he fails against Newcastle

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        This

    2. JohnnyRev7
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Yeh, Bamford is on the naughty step for the last time.

  26. Dannyb
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Vardy to
    A Martial/Cavani
    B DCL
    C Ings
    D Someone else (have Antonio and Bamford

    1. Garth Marenghi
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      C, assuming he starts

  27. Merlinho
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Start Coufal or Konsa? I’m already starting Martinez and on Konsa currently for the double up against Burnley.

    1. ivantys
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Konsa

  28. Begbie.
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Is Greenwood a viable option for the short term until KDB returns? Was set on Rashford but that looks too risky now.

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      I'd say so

  29. Bruce Lee
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Remember Enner Valencia???

    He is Ozil's new teammate

    1. Begbie.
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      Always preferred Diafra Sakho

      1. Bruce Lee
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 2 months ago

        He had nothing on Pappis Cisse (also Ozil's new teammate)

        1. Begbie.
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 2 months ago

          That goal v Chelsea was unreal

  30. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 2 months ago

    Start:

    A) Foden
    B) Saka

    1. Dannyb
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 2 months ago

      A