Spot the Differential

In-form Dunk offers clean sheets, goal threat and appealing fixtures

Double Gameweek 25 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Southampton, Brighton and Hove Albion and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Lewis Dunk

  • FPL ownership: 5.0%
  • Price: £4.9m
  • GW25-29 fixtures: CRY | wba | LEI | sou | NEW

Lewis Dunk (£4.9m) has played an integral role in helping Brighton and Hove Albion keep five clean sheets in their last six league outings.

And that defensive solidity, combined with the 29-year-olds aerial threat from set-pieces, could make him a shrewd differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a new defender.

In recent matches Brighton have been defending much better, which is reflected in the numbers. Over the last six Gameweeks, only Manchester City and Chelsea have conceded fewer shots in the box, with the Seagulls giving up just four big chances during that run.

However, Dunk’s appeal is further boosted by his goal threat. Since the beginning of the season, the Albion captain ranks second amongst all defenders for attempts in the box and fifth for expected goals (xG). For context, his 18 shots in the box is only three behind team-mate Leandro Trossard (£5.7m).

Brighton continued their run of impressive performances against Aston Villa last time out, when they were unlucky not to win, and now face a Crystal Palace side who have failed to score in their last two matches and will again be without the influential Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m). It’s also worth noting that they have given up more headed attempts than any other side over the last four Gameweeks, which Burnley were able to capitalise on last weekend.

Importantly, Dunk has been ever-present for Graham Potter’s side this season when available, and with his ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch, is a tempting investment given Albion’s schedule.

Takumi Minamino

  • FPL ownership: 0.5%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW25-29 fixtures: CHE + lee | eve | shu | BHA | —

Attacking midfielder Takumi Minamino (£6.0m) moved to Southampton on deadline day in search of more first-team opportunities.

The 26-year-old has since started back-to-back Premier League matches, operating as a wide midfielder who drifts infield in Ralph Hasenhüttl’s 4-4-2 / 4-2-2-2 setup. Equally comfortable playing both centrally and out wide, it’s a role he looks an ideal fit for, in a system he may be better suited to than Jürgen Klopp’s 4-3-3. 

The fact that he has played under Marco Rose and Jesse Marsch in Austria, and of course Klopp, is also positive, given that they all share a similar playing philosophy to Hasenhüttl.

Despite being short of match fitness, Minamino made an instant impact on his debut at Newcastle United, scoring in the first half, and though he failed to build on that performance last time out, you’d now expect him to get a run of starts as Southampton aim to get their season back on track following six successive league defeats.

Up next is a tricky home tie against Chelsea, whose defensive numbers have been superb under Thomas Tuchel so far. However, it’s worth pointing out that the schedule has been particularly kind, and that there could be gaps for Minamino to exploit with César Azpilicueta (£5.7m) sometimes joining the midfield line. The second part of the Double Gameweek sees them take on a Leeds United side who can be pressed into making mistakes, and do tend to give up chances from the zone the Japanese international primarily operates in, so there is potential to do well despite some testing matchups.

Minamino is an exciting footballer, who will be a genuine threat for Southampton once up to speed, and could be a nice pickup for those on the lookout for a real midfield differential.

Josh Maja

  • FPL ownership: 0.7%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW25-29 fixtures: SHU | cry | liv | MCI | LEE

Fulham’s Josh Maja (£5.5m) has impressed since making his first start last weekend, and quickly established himself as a key part of Scott Parker’s young team.

The 22-year-old is the exact type of player the Cottagers have been missing this season, with Fulham’s other main forward options Aleksandar Mitrović (£5.5m) and Ivan Cavaleiro (£5.3) contributing a meagre five league goals between them.

However, Fulham are creating chances regularly. This season, they rank 13th for expected goals (xG), eighth for chances created and 11th for shots in the box. The issue has been their conversation rate, with their front line regularly failing to take their chances. 

The hope is now that Maja can build on his brace against Everton, offer a focal point for his team-mates and grab the goals to keep them up.

The gap between Fulham and Premier League safety is now six points ahead of a massive match against Sheffield United on Saturday evening. An away trip to Crystal Palace follows, so there is potential to do well and pile the pressure on 17th placed Newcastle United. It’s also worth noting that their home game against Tottenham Hotspur still needs to be rescheduled, which should form part of a Double Gameweek in the coming weeks.

Maja is an exciting prospect, and if his performances so far are anything to go by, he can offer FPL managers real value at just £5.5m. 

1,339 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Catastrophe
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Any improvements to be made here chaps? Money ITB for Raphinha -> Barnes for GW26

    Sanchez
    Shaw, Dias, Dallas*
    Salah, Gundogan, Fernandes, Son, Raphinha*
    Kane, Bamford*

    (Martinez, Watkins, Targett, Stones)

    - Avoiding Southampton (I could get Ings in for DGW25 but would be taking him out in DGW26 for a hit)
    - Going Shaw and Targett over Dunk due to DGWs
    - Going Dias and Targett over Cancelo and Konsa (in theory, Stones & Cancelo would be higher overall risk of rotation?)

    Cheers.

  2. Oh Mane Mane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Start Pope or McCarthy? McCarthy with the double, but only has 7 points in the last 6 games !!

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Pope for me

    2. Rbyrne95
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Pope, for my DGW I'm actually just going to get Sanchez in. Good fixture and plays GW 29

    3. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I'm starting Pope

    4. KGJ United
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Would you go double BUR?
      I have Mee and playing him.
      Currently have McCarthy on goal, but having the same dilemma.

      1. Oh Mane Mane
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I think if I had double BUR I would start Mee and go with McCarthy in nets. Spread the risk.

  3. nalas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Cavani -> Ings for -4? No other SOU player.

    1. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Is Cavani definitely out? Who is first sub?

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I would (am) but awaiting cavani news

    3. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I did this exact move earlier before Ings price rise.

  4. waltzingmatildas
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    I'm torn:
    A) Soucek to Raphinha
    B) Soucek and DCL to Raphinha and Ings
    C) Son and Antonio to Raphinha and Ings (Money in the bank for DCL to Kane next week)

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      If DCL still out then B looks great

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Like B myself

    3. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I'm starting Pope

      1. Il Capitano
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Reply fail sorry. B looks nice if DCL ruled out

  5. Scooby75
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Please help me to decide:

    Martinez
    Cancelo Mee Shaw Dias
    Son Bruno Salah Grealish Gundo
    Bamford

    4.0 DCL Antonio Mitchell

    Going to use WC,Bb later in season

    A. DCL, Dias to Ings , Dallas -4
    B. Antonio, Dias to Ings, strujik -4
    C. SON to Raphina for free
    D. Something else
    E. WC to a BB 26 team

    0 ITB
    1ft
    Thanks in advance

  6. marcos11
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Southampton surely unlikely to have three doubles in a row with fixture congestion? More likely to have 25 and 27?

  7. Jässi
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Is McCarthy 95-100% nailed for premier league or is there a chance Forster could play? He played in their FA Cup win and kept a clean sheet, didn't see the match though.

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Never say never! 🙂

  8. Il Capitano
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Pope
    Stones Cancelo Dallas
    Raphinha Bruno Salah Son Gundogan
    Ings Bamford (C)

    McCarthy - Adams Lowton Coufal

    Play BB if Gundo is fit?

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Nah

  9. the dom 1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    whats the chances of Stirling playing this GW?

    already did a - 4 to get Ings in. 1st on bench is Antonio.

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Huh? Sterling out - what sorcery is this???

      1. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        No he's not out but he did play almost 90 mins a few days ago.

        1. the dom 1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          Pep roulette as he maybe benched? Just dont know these days with what goes on in Pep's head 🙁

          1. Andy_Social
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 1 month ago

            But you don't buy an 11.5m asset and bench him 'just in case'!

            1. the dom 1
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 1 month ago

              Oh no, I am not benching him Andy, I am playing him but just got that feeling Pep may rest him....

              1. Andy_Social
                • 11 Years
                3 years, 1 month ago

                Yeh, that's the perpetual fear of having City assets! It's only going to get worse now there's a rash of DGWs to fit in with FA Cup and CL matches!

                1. the dom 1
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 1 month ago

                  i hear ya lad. i am 85% confident he starts as KDB may be eased back into the games.

            2. Gomolon
              • 9 Years
              3 years, 1 month ago

              This is why I'm going Salah and 2 city players on my WC, gives time to watch KDB and move to him if needed for one FT

  10. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thinking save? Then Antonio, Sterling to Kane, Gundo maybe? 1FT 0.3itb

    Martinez
    Dias Dallas Mee
    Raph Son Bruno Greal Sterl
    Ings Bamford
    (Johnstone, Antonio, Stones, Justin)

    1. IRBOX ⚽
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Your team is floundering. Rid yourself of Sterling for Gundo or even better KDB this GW

  11. Amans94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    The joys of FPL deadlines/DGW announcements in Australia, setting the alarm for 3am for news!

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      And the crappy weather.

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      That's dedication!

      1. Amans94
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Short-term pain for hopefully long-term gain.

    3. Gomolon
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Now that's dedication, toy deserve a good gw for the commitment

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        My season was ruined when I fell asleep and woke up a minute after deadline, failing to press my BB and losing over 30 points 🙁

    4. Maarrrr17
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Bruh tell me about it, it's stressing me out

      1. Amans94
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        I know, was really hoping for announcements yesterday but what can you do. I have a few different ideas on transfers based on the games, best hope i guess

    5. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Bugger that mate, I hit the WC and put up a best scenario dgw team.

      1. Gomolon
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Same here, I've read Ben's tweets and trust his thinking, even if PL admins are slow to work

    6. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I can't do it!
      just reaffirms for me not to wc yet

  12. n-doggg
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Thinking sterling will probably get rested vs Arsenal but play in the DGW? Or would you ditch for Kane/son?

  13. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Ole does have a presser at 1.30pm according to their website (someone sent me a link)

    For those (like me) mulling over Cavani to Ings

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      so annoying the deadline in AUS is horrendous so probably won't know re cavani or not
      id take the hit now if i knew he was out

  14. LewanGOALski
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Which?

    1) Play Cavani and save FT
    2) use FT for Cavani ➡ Ings (and bench Antonio)
    3) use FT for Antonio ➡ Ings (and bench Cavani)

    1. Fpl Richie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Exact same dilemma and either 2 or 3 leaves exact cash for Kane in 26. Nail biter.

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      2 or 3

  15. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Minor point.

    Tonight (after deadline) I have exact cash for Antonio to Kane. Take the risk if the rest of the team is okay?

    1. Gomolon
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Just keep a close eye on price rise websites/tools so you can balance info Vs budget wisely

  16. King of Kings.
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    What do you guys think of DCL > Ings?

    Looks like DCL has better possible DGW26 fixtures but Ings will likely have more DGWs.

  17. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Worth going Ings for the double over Kane? On WC. Will have enough ITB for Ings > Kane + Raph > Barnes next GW.

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      This is the exact dilemma I have! If I bring in Ings this GW, I need to take a hit to bring in Kane and Barnes

  18. DagheMunegu
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Anything worth a hit ?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Dias Shaw
    Salah Bruno Son Gundogan
    Watkins Bamford Cavani

    Cavani to Ings -4 ?

  19. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Best move here? Currently planning to save WC and do Sterling/Ings -> Son/Kane(TC) next week.

    A) Save FT
    B) Martinelli -> Raphina (bench Watkins)

    Pope
    Tarkowski, Cancelo, Targett
    Salah, Bruno, Sterling, Gundogan
    Bamford, Ings, Watkins

    Forster, Coufal, Martinelli, Mitchell
    Bank 1.2m, 1FT, all chips

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I would WC.. If they announce dgw

      1. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        This week? Not sure there’s many others I’d want this week.

    2. Nay08
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      your team looks ok. so doesn't really need WC right now.
      but imo, you can use WC right now or after 29 (you have all chips so you can easily FH GW29). you check which option better for your team and decide from there.

  20. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Is it time to think of moving off double City defence and go double attack - if not now then soon? Think these figures are correct

    in weeks 1-16 they scored 25 goals
    in weeks 17-24 they scored 24 goals

    The defence has of course been outstanding but attacking returns have been scarce. The hauls for Cancelo and Stones almost within variance for returns for random defenders.

    The uptick in attacking returns mirrors their attacking form from the last few seasons. Rotation is an obvious issue but can also be for defence especially with Laporte back.

    Personally looking at Foden with real interest as someone who is cheap enough to lose when benchings occur. He is already more or less level with defenders for returns and if the attacking surge continues I'd expect him to be well ahead by season's end.

    1. Jinswick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I think Cancelo and Gundo are close to a lock given the price we got them and their form/potential upside. From the rest you can make a case for Stones (cheap), Foden (form and cheap) and KDB (Mr reliable and captain option).

      Think I’m likely going with Stones and going heavy in attack with Salah, Bruno, Son, Kane

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Do feel nervous having lost Cancelo on WC last week - clear potential but more exciting to own than rewarding till now.

        I'm curious what will happen with KdB back. First half of the season he was poor value really given loads of assists but only 3 goals. But since he's been out City have suddenly reverted to being a goal machine. If he gets his share of the increased goal output then he becomes exciting.

  21. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Who to start?

    A. Cresswell (H vs Spurs)
    B. Digne (A vs LIV)

    1. Nay08
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Creswell imo

    2. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      A

  22. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Morning guys and gals.
    Presser times.

    https://twitter.com/ffscout/status/1362692863700701189?s=21

    1. Gomolon
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Good horse

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Now feed me.

    2. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Thanks for this 🙂

  23. Z
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Today is the day!!!!!!

  24. IRBOX ⚽
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Bench DCL or Watkins? GTG otherwise?

    Martinez
    Cancelo Alonso Stones
    Salah Bruno Son Grealish Gundo
    Watkins Bamford (C)

    Forster DCL Coufal Kilman

    1. toerag
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      watkins

    2. ILOVEBAPS
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Watkins

  25. toerag
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Well it is looking like this. Not playin WC but using both frees

    Martinez
    Dias Cancelo Mee
    Raphinha Salah Gundo Bruno
    Baamford Kane Ings

    Forster 1Tarkowski 2Soucek 3Cresswell

    does this look right??
    correct subs??

  26. boombaba
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Play Pope or Martinez

    1. Nay08
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      this week Pope

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Pope

  27. Chief Break-Everything
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    Martinez (Johnstone)
    Cancelo Stones Dallas (Coufal Mitchell)
    Bruno Grealish Gundogan Son Salah
    Bamford Kane (Reid)

    1FT .1 ITB

    A) GTG Roll FT
    B)Raphinha in - Grealish out
    C)Rapinha in - Someone else out?

    Ta

  28. Nay08
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    might be a silly question, but would you start DCL over Gundo?

    1. Gomolon
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No, but then I tend to be a risk averse manager

    2. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      No. If Gundo isn't fit, he won't start and your sub will come on.

  29. Rbyrne95
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    I have Gundogan, Cavani (both yellow flagged) and Adams, who doesn't seem to be starting now!? Was planning to get Kane in next week for DGW....what to do now?

  30. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 1 month ago

    WC Team:

    Areola
    Alonso Burn Struijk
    Salah Gundogan Grealish Raphina(C) Bruno
    Ings Bamford
    (Ederson, Watkins, Dias, Rudiger)

    GW26 > Raph + Ings > Barnes + Kane.

    This is the plan. This is the best i can come up with that juggles all Doubles and Blanks. Good luck guys.

    1. Jimmy Boy
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Looks good, although I'd probably start one of either Ederson or Dias this week just to cover yourself if Man City do keep a clean sheet at Arsenal.

      1. DAZZ
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Good point. Thanks mate

      2. Jimmy Boy
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Are you bench boosting in 26? I'm in a similar position and not too confident about Burn as a reliable starter.

    2. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      I think I'd start Ederson over Areola, but team broadly looks fine.

      Are BB-ing next week?

      1. DAZZ
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 1 month ago

        Yes BB next week. No FH for 29.

        1. Nay08
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 1 month ago

          hmm if no FH I would keep Raphinha

    3. merin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 1 month ago

      Somewhat similiar to my WC team, though I haven't activated it yet...
      What do you think about this lot? Ideas for improvements?

      Martinez Pope
      Dias Cancelo Dunk Targett Dallas
      Salah Bruno Son Gundogan Raphinha
      Ings Bamford Watkins

      1.2 ITB