634x258 Season Review
19 June 2012 1244 comments
Paul Paul
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Our final club under analysis in the series of “Promoted Teams” articles is West Ham. Finishing third in last season’s npower Championship, the London outfit arrive back in the top flight after just a season’s exodus, following a 2-1 play-off final win over Ian Holloway’s Blackpool:

Finishing bottom of the Premier League under the guidance of Avraam Grant in 2010/11, the Hammers quickly sacked the Israeli following a dismal campaign and turned to Sam Allardyce last June, handing the former Bolton boss a two-year contract. Despite losing the likes of Scott Parker, Demba Ba, Robbie Keane and Thomas Hitzlsperger, Big Sam ensured his side returned to the top-flight at the first attempt by snapping up plenty of experienced campaigners in an overhaul of the Hammers’ squad.

The Statistics

PWDLFAGDPCS
Total46241488148+338617
Home2311844126+15417
Away2313644022+184510

CS = Cleansheets

West Ham were the most resilient of the three promoted clubs, losing just eight of their 46 league games – in comparison, Reading and Southampton lost 11 and 10 times respectively. At home, however, Allardyce’s men seemed to struggle; while they lost on just four occasions at Upton Park, they won a mere 11 times in front of their own fans. The Hammers notched 41 times, scoring two or more goals on 11 occasions and failing to find the net in four of their 23 home matches. At the back, however, they shipped two or more goals six times and recorded just seven clean sheets.

On the road they proved more successful, picking up 45 points in comparison to 41 at Upton Park. Allardyce’s side lost just four times on their travels, scoring two or more goals 12 times and drawing a blank on just three occasions. Defensively, they returned 10 clean sheets and conceded two or more goals five times.

The Manager

Having picked up over a decade of experience in the Premier League with spells at Bolton, Newcastle and Blackburn, Allardyce has developed a playing style that’s fair to say isn’t the most aesthetically pleasing around. His favoured 4-5-1 system, with a penchant for “playing the percentages” which involves plenty of long balls flighted into opposition danger areas, has been successful to a certain degree, though has picked up a fair number of detractors.

While Allardyce feels promotion more than vindicates his tactics, he has failed to appease many West Ham fans with such an approach. The Hammers’ supporters are keen for a more cultured style of play, which has led to the manager publicly slamming the boo-boys and labelling them “deluded”. Needless to say he still has a long way to endear himself to the Upton Park faithful, then.

The Promoted Squad

Listed below are the main protagonists under Allardyce last term, with only those players who started 10 or more games included in the rundown:

Robert Green (45 starts) Has been the Hammers’ first-choice stopper for the past six seasons and missed just four matches in Allardyce’s first campaign but it has been revealed he is leaving Upton Park at the end of the month on a free transfer.

Winston Reid (30 starts, 1 sub app. 3 goals, 3 assists) Suffered a dislocated shoulder in early September which kept him on the sidelines for three months. When fit, he was a regular pick under the new boss and his partnership with James Tomkins at centre-half was crucial to West Ham’s cause over the last few months of the season.

Abdoulaye Faye (25 starts, 4 sub apps. 1 assist) More than familiar with Allardyce’s style of play, having previously featured under Big Sam at Bolton. Benefitted from Reid’s injury absence after signing on a free from Stoke but won’t be featuring for the Hammers next term – he is set to be released at the end of the month when his contract expires.

George McCartney (35 starts, 6 sub apps. 1 goal, 3 assists) Spent last season on loan from Sunderland. Missed only a handful of games after suffering concussion and struggled to get back in the first XI, but a series of solid displays at left-back saw him voted Players’ Player of the Year.

James Tomkins (45 starts, 2 sub apps. 4 goals, 2 assists) Along with Mark Noble, he was one of only two Hammers named in the npower Championship team of the year. Tomkins’ role looks nailed-on at centre-half after a commanding campaign at the back and he is the one West Ham defender who is likely to throw his body in the way of the ball – a side of his game which could well be rewarded in the EA Sports Player Performance Index.

Joey O’Brien (27 starts, 5 sub apps. 1 goal, 2 assists) Yet another former Bolton man in the West Ham ranks, he arrived on a free transfer last summer. His versatility at right-back and midfield, in addition to injuries to others, boosted his game time considerably, though he is likely to struggle for first-team football if West Ham have an injury-free squad to choose from.

Guy Demel (10 starts. 1 assist) Arrived from Hamburg on the final day of the summer transfer window but his season was blighted by injuries. Mainly a right-back, he missed much fo the campaign after sustaining hamstring and thigh problems but returned towards the end of last term and held down a regular role.

Papa Bouba Diop (14 starts, 2 sub apps. 1 goal, 1 assist) Signed from AEK Athens in a one-year deal last summer, he struggled for a regular role and was hampered by hamstring injuries and a lack of form. Set to be released at the end of the month.

Henri Lansbury (13 starts, 10 sub apps. 1 goal, 2 assists) Joined on a one-year loan deal last August but was ruled out for a number of months with a knee injury and has since returned to parent club Arsenal.

Gary O’Niel (12 starts, 7 sub apps. 2 goals, 2 assists) Missed the first half of the season with serious knee injury and featured from the bench on a handful of occasions as he built up his fitness. Found a place in the first-team as the season unwound, suggesting he could feature more prominently should be remain injury-free.

Julian Faubert (28 starts, 8 sub apps. 1 goal, 5 assists) Failed to nail down a regular starting role and started just over half of the Hammers’ games. Mainly used as a right-back but can also feature further up the flank – was dropped by Allardyce for the play-off final and will be released at the end of the month when his contract expires.

Jack Collison (29 starts, 5 sub apps. 6 goals, 4 assists) Utilised in central midfield or wide right, the young Welshman started just over half his side’s games last season – an indication that his game time is far from assured. Played a crucial role in the play-off semi-finals by notching a brace against Cardiff but could struggle to nail down a starting position, with Allardyce looking for experience in the summer transfer market.

Mark Noble (46 starts, 2 sub apps. 8 goals, 10 assists) Voted “Hammer of the Year” last term after playing a part in more goals than any of his team mates. First-choice penalty-taker, he also has the lion’s share of set-pieces and helped himself to eight goals and 10 assists; as a result, could offer Fantasy managers a decent mid-price prospect in the season ahead.

Matt Taylor (29 starts, 2 sub apps. 1 goal, 9 assists) Joined from Bolton last summer and added a wealth of top-flight experience to the Hammers’ first-team. His game time was curtailed by a couple of calf injuries and, while Taylor provided a strong creative threat from midfield, Allardyce also utilised him at left-back on occasion.

Kevin Nolan (45 starts. 13 goals , 5 assists) One of Allardyce’s most trusted lieutenants, he joined up in a five-year deal from Newcastle last summer and was immediately made captain. His top-flight experience will be vital this upcoming season and, with double-figure returns in each of his last two campaigns in the Premier League, his price tag will be eagerly anticipated by Fantasy managers looking for a mid-price bargain.

Sam Baldock (10 starts, 13 sub apps. 5 goals) Snapped up on a four-year deal from MK Dons last summer but has failed to establish himself as a regular at Upton Park. Is likely to struggle for starts once again, though his speed could see him afforded some game time from the bench as an impact sub late in on matches.

Carlton Cole (31 starts, 12 sub apps. 15 goals, 6 assists) Started and finished the season strongly but flitted in and out the first-team after struggling for consistency. Featured in the first-team in two-thirds of the Hammers’ games, suggesting he has yet to persuade Allardyce he is worthy of a regular role.

Ricardo Vaz Te (16 starts, 2 sub apps. 12 goals) Snapped up from Barnsley in January 2012 and, aside from notching the play-off final winner against Blackpool, made a significant impact. Averaging almost a goal per start under Allardyce, he was voted Championship signing of the season – could well get the nod ahead of Cole if the 4-5-1 system is maintained, particularly at home.

Potential Targets

As mentioned above, the club are set for another summer of rebuilding, with many faces leaving by the start of July. Hammers co-chairman David Gold recently revealed they intend to sign “up to four players”, though the rumour mill is already in overdrive as to who the new faces may be.

With Rob Green on his way out of Upton Park, Allardyce has turned to a familiar face to fill the breach between the posts. Jussi Jaaskelainen will arrive on July 1 in a one-year deal with an option for a further 12 months – the Bolton keeper is a free agent and is no longer first-choice at the Reebok, having lost his place to Adam Bogdan last term.

Once again, Allardyce is targeting experienced campaigners as he looks to establish a top-flight foothold. Intriguingly, former Real Madrid man Guti is being lined up for a move, according to the player’s representatives – he is available on a free transfer after being released by Turkish club Besiktas.

Matt Jarvis is also on the radar. Reports suggest West Ham have already had a bid rejected for the Wolves winger but are likely to increase their initial offer of £4m – the Molineux outfit are keen to keep their influential wide man as they attempt to engineer a quick return to the Premier League and are thought to be looking for around £10m for his services.

Having recently been caught on camera with Juventus director Fabio Paratic, Allardyce has been linked with a move for winger Milos Krasic. Bearing in mind he brought the likes of Jay Jay Okocha and Nicklas Anelka to Bolton, this may not as unlikely as it sounds – Big Sam clearly has the potential to pull off the most unexpected of deals.

At the back, Jonas Olsson has also caught Allardyce’s eye. The West Brom centre-half has just one year left of his contract and could be the ideal partner for Tomkins in the heart of defence. Crystal Palace’s highly-rated young winger Wilfred Zaha and Wigan’s out-of-contract midfielder Mohamed Diame have also been linked with moves. It’s likely to be a busy summer, then, with business on the agenda all the way up till the end of August.

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  1. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Green, Nolan and Cole for me, West Ham have great starting fixtures.

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    1. r0nh
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Just you & I Giggs...

      Fancy a quicky??

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      1. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Let's do it, where and when? 😉

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    2. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Never mind! Green is leaving 😳 Tompkins looks good.

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      1. Frazek
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        In the Championship, maybe. 🙂 Nolan's about the only Hammer I'd touch.

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    3. King Nil Miss ✩
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Noble seems like a good prospect too.

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      1. Frazek
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Not for FPL, I wouldn't think. Remember, he's been in the Prem before (albeit young) but he never scored goals/assists like that there. Treat the stats with a modicum of salt.

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        1. King Nil Miss ✩
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          He´s a different player now you would think? More mature?

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          1. Frazek
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            King Nil, you mean slower and fatter? 🙂

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            1. King Nil Miss ✩
              • 14 Years
              13 years, 5 months ago

              🙂

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    4. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Vaz Te if priced right over the battelship Cole

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      1. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Is he nailed on though?

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        1. Freshy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          If Ham needs goals
          Came in in January and started 16 games
          He was nailed on at the end of the year I think?

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    5. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Green may be on way out. If he is Jussi is in, so is Nolan.

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    6. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Tomkins - if 4.5m and Noble - if 5.5 would be good.

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  2. lfcindo
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Is Torres, CR7 & Gomez the strongest strike force for QF?

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    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I think Silva Ronaldo Gomez. But Torres is a great price and hard to ignore.

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      1. lfcindo
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        I'm thinking to switch Torres to Nani. But I'm not sure.

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    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      How are we supposed to know?

      We're just guessing right now. But I wouldn't go into the QFs without Gomez or CR7. The last spot is still up for grabs.

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    3. Frazek
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Not if Nando doesn't start. And why should he after last night's shoddy shift? Benzy plus the other pair for me.

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    4. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Torres may be back on bench, if he's not then yes, if he is, then get Nani.

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    5. Kevin Twine
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I think so, maybe Silva over Torres but I think Silva is too expensive.

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    6. Freshy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Spain strikers might be in for a shuffle

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    7. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Tough to know how much game time torres will get.

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  3. Conrad.
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Menez to start today?

    If so, should I go with he or Nasri for today’s game?

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  4. stilicho
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Shame Noble is on pens, Nolan would be a really strong option if he had the spot kicks.

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    1. King Nil Miss ✩
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      This!

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    2. Frazek
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Rob Green might be the best FPL punt here... once he moves to QPR. 🙂

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    3. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      with west ham's fixtures a cheap defender or Jaask are good choices plus one of the mids. It'll be between Noble and Nolan....going to depend on price as I think both will score reasonably well for mid price options. If either are below 6m I will attack them ferociously with my finger pressing buttons on a screen of tiny shirts.

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  5. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on both Nani AND CR7. Surely Nani can't misfire like that again

    Wait a second, what am I saying, THIS IS NANI.

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    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I reckon Nani will be on target this time. Against the Czechs and the majority of their goals have come from both flanks. Why not...

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    2. FORCA INTER
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      shame that he is classed as striker

      i like the idea and i seen one draft with nani+ronaldo

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      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        am thinking of going Nani over Nando

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        1. FORCA INTER
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          so do i,but for real

          i think portugal will score a few and both nani and cr will chip in

          i dont wanna miss portugal pts again...

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        2. Grounderz
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          I really can't see how Torres will hit some goals whether England or France.

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          1. FORCA INTER
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            question is,would dubble up at Portugal atack and go with alba as only spain coverage?

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            1. Grounderz
              • 14 Years
              13 years, 5 months ago

              Honestly, I am willing to go with Alba as Spain's only coverage. Double up Portugese attack looks more appealing to me than having Spain who's only chances are either France or England. Up against the Czechs so I expect goals to come from Nani and Ronaldo themselves, really.

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              1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                13 years, 5 months ago

                ^^^ I agree with this ^^^

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  6. Can’t beat em so&hell…
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Straight back down again I fear...

    Back to the euros... Advice welcome.

    Had cassano as captain yesterday 6/12 points.

    Today, should I stick or twist to one of:

    Nasri
    Benzema
    Young
    Lescott?

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    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Benzema.

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    2. paddym25
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      [*Long post warning not relevant to EURO 2012*!!!!]

      OK Guys,

      Here is my plan. For each of the 360 games in the Prem next season, I want to construct 12 scenarios for the result (from 0-0 to 3-3), along with the odds that are being given on that result being achieved. If the odds are not available I will have to find a way to simulate / create them. So for each game in the league I end up with something like this (ive just picked random numbers for these odds, but the important thing is they have all been normalised, so are in respect to 1 (ie 5/2 becomes 2.5/1):

      Score:HomeTeam:AwayTeam
      0-0:1.889:1.889
      1-0:2.1:1.345
      1-1:2.439:2.439
      2-1:5.187:3.388
      2-2:6.5:8.5
      3-1... etc
      3-2

      Then I will have a list of all available players in the game, and the logic to construct every variation of team that is allowed by the constraints imposed by the game (budget, no more than 3 players from a team, 2 gk's, 5 defenders etc...) and then run each of those teams through the betting odds I have for each result, arriving at a total 'value' for the team based on each simulated shift, and its likelihood of occurring according to the markets.

      Clearly I would need other betting data, like the odds on goalscoring, clean sheets etc.. but I think if I can devise a way to 'price' a team based on this market data, I could be onto a pretty useful analytical tool for finding valuable players for selection in my FPL premier league team.

      Any comments guys, feedback much appreciated. Also if anyone wants to get involved, i'm more than up for that. I was thinking about using something like perl for the statistic scraping/sourcing (i've already got a way into the fantasy.premierleague.com XML for player stats) and then using something like Excel / VBA for handling, analysing and displaying the pre-processed XML.

      Anyone?

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      1. paddym25
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        380 games, even!

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      2. heco87
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, I mean credit to you and all that but I can't help but feel this is over-complicating things a bit. At the end of the day, it's fantasy football ...

        I don't know what the innovative end result you're trying to achieve is, some sort of ranking per team for each game of cluster of games? If so, Total FPL have got a pretty handy ticker for that.

        Having said that, if you think this will help you and you have the time to do all of this, then fair enough.

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      3. Pratik
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        I get what you are trying to do but do you really need all this for team selection based on betting odds? This will be so much easier to just analyze the situation manually. Seems to me like a lot of work, for some straightforward results.

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    3. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Id go with Benz

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  7. Matt_
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Any thoughts on this QF team? Thank you.

    Rui Patrício / Sifakis

    Barzagli / Hummels / Jordi Alba / Boateng / Gebre Selassie

    Fortounis / Pilař / Nasri / Marchisio / Fàbregas

    Cristiano Ronaldo / Gomez / Torres

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    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Looks familiar does that

      😉

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      1. Captain Shirokov
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        JK, do you think I should stick on Cassano or switch to Benzema for today?

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        1. JK - Cønt ⭐
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          hmm, it's a tough call team-mate. FWIW I am on Benzema (c), so if it works we could be in the points, but if it fails....

          Let me have a look, ok I think Aatish has Cassano (c) and Kostja will (c) Benzema, so I'd stick, we're ahead of them, it's a perfect group record held in tact that way. 😀

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          1. Captain Shirokov
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            Ya, fair enough. He'll probably get a hat trick tonight though seeing as I'm not (C)ing him. 😛

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    2. Frazek
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I like it a lot Matt. One alteration perhaps, downgrade Barzagli (can't see ITA CS against FRA or ENG) to Maniatis (OOP and cheap) and upgrade Marchisio to Pirlo?

      That's my suggestion.

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  8. Captain Shirokov
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Chances of Fabregas starting the next game?

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    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      It depends on how Spain plan to play against their next opponent.

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    2. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      not sure

      Torres was poor, but Del Bosque has said it was a poor performance by Spain. It's possible he feels they didn't get Torres the ball quickly enough.

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    3. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Torres wasn't great last night so possibly, might they go with the same team against Italy, who knows?

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  9. Billy Ketsu
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Kevin Nolan, "with double-figure returns in each of his last two campaigns".

    What does this mean? That he scored over 9 and below 100? Are we supposed to guess how many points he scored? 🙂

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    1. Billy Ketsu
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Ok, I guess it means goals scored, not points.

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    2. King Nil Miss ✩
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Don´t get me wrong but do you actually know what´s written on your name?

      Talking about non-sense...

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      1. Billy Ketsu
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Yep, it's supposed to say Lick My Euro Love Pump in Portuguese but since it was translated by Babelfish or some other useless interweb translation device it quite clearly doesn't say that.

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        1. King Nil Miss ✩
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          "Lambe a minha bomba de amor euro" 😉

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          1. Billy Ketsu
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            Thank you!

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  10. Captain Shirokov
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Draft No. 3

    Neuer - Drobny

    Boateng - Barzagli - Pereira - Limbersky - Maniatis

    Nasri - Fabregas/Alonso - Pilar - Pirlo - Fortounis

    Silva - CR7 - Gomez

    Thoughts?

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    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      You have the same midfielders as I do. Looks great except Silva. Wait for England's game tonight then you'll rethink you forward drafts again whether Rooney is reliable.

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  11. COMH
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Do you think Fabregas will continue to come off the bench in games or get a start?

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    1. King Nil Miss ✩
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Not nailed on imo.

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  12. Matt_
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    A) Torres, Maniatis and Pirlo

    OR

    B) Silva, Barzagli and Marchisio

    Thanks

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    1. Captain Shirokov
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      B.

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      1. Matt_
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Sorry I'm an idiot I typed it wrong.

        A) Torres, Barzagli and Pirlo

        OR

        B) Silva, Maniatis and Marchisio

        Thank you

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        1. Captain Shirokov
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          Hmm, tough one. Probably A.

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        2. Tomlette Greggs
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          A

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  13. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Lots of similar looking team on here. Here's what I have. Threat of Spain rotation is too high, and they play on the last day, so not a huge incentive for me to get their players.

    Neuer, Lastuvka
    Hummels, Alba, Coentrao, Limbersky, Maniatis
    Iniesta, Pirlo, Nasri, Pilar, Fortounis
    Gomez, Ronaldo, Cassano

    I'm not entirely convinced either Torres or Fabregas will start, and even if they do, they'll probably play England who will stifle them.

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    1. FORCA INTER
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      love cassano punt

      great team-i am always happy to see team without defensive MF in

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      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        I don't know why do you don't like Pirlo?

        Motta is the deep mid in Italy team, Pirlo has a goal and 2 assists. I may get him AND Marchisio.

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    2. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Id personally do Iniesta to 6.5 mid and get another German at the back.

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      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Need a last day captain.

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        1. King Nemanja
          • 15 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          Good point, but Id take the risk that one of your front 3 will have your captain problem sorted by then

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        2. Billy Gilmore
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          hopefully won't need it with ronaldo hatrick 😉

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          1. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            Yeah but it's better to be safe. I wouldn't have thought I'd be on Benzema (c) today, but here I am! Choosing 4 captains before the rest of the team is also how I like to build the teams. That way I have arguably the 4 best players of the week right away then build around them.

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    3. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I'm likely to get Nani and CR7.

      Possibly get Balzaetti over Barzagli. But I'm tempted to stay away from Spain attack altogether. 9.5 for 11 points is a bit poor IMO, Busquets has the same total for 3 million less.

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    4. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Agreed with you on Torres and Fabregas.

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    5. heco87
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah, I like it a lot .. similar to my current draft - My Cabaye & Silva vs your Iniesta & Cassano is pretty much the main difference.

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  14. suvoneel
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    how does this look like?

    sifakis / cech

    alba / debuchy / abate / badstuber / selassie

    pilar / hubschman / busquets / pirlo / ozil

    benzema / ronaldo / gomez

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    1. Can’t beat em so&hell…
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Is abate definitely in for maggio?

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  15. paddym25
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Apologies, I mistakenly posted this as a reply to someone else:

    [*Long post warning not relevant to EURO 2012*!!!!]

    OK Guys,

    Here is my plan. For each of the 360 games in the Prem next season, I want to construct 12 scenarios for the result (from 0-0 to 3-3), along with the odds that are being given on that result being achieved. If the odds are not available I will have to find a way to simulate / create them. So for each game in the league I end up with something like this (ive just picked random numbers for these odds, but the important thing is they have all been normalised, so are in respect to 1 (ie 5/2 becomes 2.5/1):

    Score:HomeTeam:AwayTeam
    0-0:1.889:1.889
    1-0:2.1:1.345
    1-1:2.439:2.439
    2-1:5.187:3.388
    2-2:6.5:8.5
    3-1… etc
    3-2

    Then I will have a list of all available players in the game, and the logic to construct every variation of team that is allowed by the constraints imposed by the game (budget, no more than 3 players from a team, 2 gk’s, 5 defenders etc…) and then run each of those teams through the betting odds I have for each result, arriving at a total ‘value’ for the team based on each simulated shift, and its likelihood of occurring according to the markets.

    Clearly I would need other betting data, like the odds on goalscoring, clean sheets etc.. but I think if I can devise a way to ‘price’ a team based on this market data, I could be onto a pretty useful analytical tool for finding valuable players for selection in my FPL premier league team.

    Any comments guys, feedback much appreciated. Also if anyone wants to get involved, i’m more than up for that. I was thinking about using something like perl for the statistic scraping/sourcing (i’ve already got a way into the fantasy.premierleague.com XML for player stats) and then using something like Excel / VBA for handling, analysing and displaying the pre-processed XML.

    Anyone?

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    1. heco87
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Responded above but:

      Yeah, I mean credit to you and all that but I can’t help but feel this is over-complicating things a bit. At the end of the day, it’s fantasy football …

      I don’t know what the innovative end result you’re trying to achieve is, some sort of ranking per team for each game of cluster of games? If so, Total FPL have got a pretty handy ticker for that.

      Having said that, if you think this will help you and you have the time to do all of this, then fair enough.

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      1. paddym25
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Hi Hec,

        Thanks for the reply.

        Haha, I know what you mean about over complicating things. I guess what I am trying to achieve is the following:

        1) What is the ideal fantasy football team that the market would pick at any given moment.
        2) Who are the players that are over-priced, and who are the players that are under-priced

        It would be an interesting exercise in its own right, I feel, to see how the team that is based on the market (using the technique I describe above, ie brute force simulation of each possible team combinations performance against this market data, choosing the highest scoring team from this set as the weeks team) performs over the season. However there would be difficulties as one weeks team would entirely differ from the next's, and transfer costs would also have to be factored in (though this could be accounted for in the algorithm).

        Also, I get the impression that it is not so straight forward to do this manually. Most of the differentials I see over the past few seasons would have been made a lot clear for me with some sort of alerting mechanism. For example, Samba at blackburn really passed me by for quite a while, but the stats would have suggested he was a good pick. However I only discovered this forum fairly recently, and until then had only been relying on sources like bbc news, which is far from ideal.

        So, its a bit of a vanity project, and an exploration. I'm not entirely sure what I will find out, but you never know maybe i'll hit on some pattern, or strategy which yields optimal results. I do wonder how many other FF players are doing / thinking about doing / have failed to do something similar....

        thanks for the feedback mate.

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        1. heco87
          • 15 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          Fair enough, I mean I do like the concept but am not sure I would rely on the markets, as you say.

          I think markets react to results and what the data in the members area tries to do is to use historic data to predict results, i.e. is ahead of the markets. I worry that if you rely on markets, you are a step behind.

          Were you a member last season and did you use the data on offer? Perhaps you could use the data from the members area to enhance your model rather than rely on data which is reactive?

          Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick but like I say, credit to you all the same.

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          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            No I agree with you Heco. The markets are reactive and so you will still always be a step behind.

            The members stats on this site, (wait for membership to open for the new season about mid july), are based on OPTA statistics.

            These give values for of threat amongst other things, based upon the number of passes, crosses, tackles, shots etc

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            1. paddym25
              • 13 Years
              13 years, 5 months ago

              Thanks guys, I didn't know that was on offer here... looks like i'm going for the membership next season!!!

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              1. Ginkapo FPL
                • 14 Years
                13 years, 5 months ago

                Definitely, by the sounds of it you will love it. Undoubtably you will wanna set up some tool to make it easier to interpret, but the raw data is all there. I believe they are working on producing more useful formats, but I may be wrong.

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    2. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Sounds easy 😀

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    3. Scroobius Mac
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Did you ever use ratemyteam.com?

      Seemed like they used a similar thing.

      Also bookies odds aren't probabilities of events actually happening they are moderated by expectation and predicted bets (Stilcho can explain this better than I can)

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      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        It simple,

        Bookies do not price odds based upon their opinion. They price in such a way as to always make money whatever the result. (ignoring paddy powers crazy promotions)

        In such a way the odds are based upon the consumer expectation, a clear case of this is the odds for England to win the euros puts us as 4th favourites, but clearly this has been heavily affected by patriots gambling on their home nation.

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    4. Ginkapo FPL
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      You would need a way to read of the betting sites too, personally I would try to nick em from betfair as they seem to have relatively average prices compared to the others.

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  16. Hay Number 2
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    What is everyone's thoughts on Rooney, I am gambling on him for the captaincy!

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    1. Matt_
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      For today, i would (C) him if I had him, but will not be bringing him in for the QF

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      1. Hay Number 2
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        I am with you on that....out he goes after this one!

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      2. King Nemanja
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        +1

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  17. Hay Number 2
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    I enjoyed Ronaldo's performance against Holland so much I had to watch it again last night. Cracking game.

    BTW FWIW I would choose Ronaldo over Messi every day of the week!

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    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Just this week?

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      1. Hay Number 2
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Nope......any given day! For me he's got the lot!

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    2. A.
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I can't help feeling that Messi would've out away more of Ronaldo's chances vs Denmark and Holland than he did

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      1. Hay Number 2
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Everyone has an off day....he showed his class by not letting it affect him and destroyed Holland. Put Messi in that Portugal team and he wouldn't do half as well as Ronaldo does.

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        1. A.
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah, he was class vs Holland, but still wasn't as good as he can be.

          It's things like Messi's solo goal vs Brazil the other day that set him out apart I think though, not taking anything away from Ronaldo's achievements, but Messi is a better player overall in my opinion.

          Messi has to carry Argentina just as much as Ronaldo has to carry Portugal, and neither of them have been very good at it yet

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  18. GreenWindmill
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Oh good, Sam Allardyce is managing in the Premier League again.

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    1. Hay Number 2
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I know........I wanted Holloway back. "UEFA, FIFA.......WHO ARRRR THEY" 😉

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      1. GreenWindmill
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        He'd certainly be much better from both an interview and a spectacle on the pitch point of view. Just can't be doing with "Big Sam" (urgh).

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        1. Hay Number 2
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          +10.......nevermind he'll be sacked before you know it! 😉

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  19. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    ok Forca mate, what do we think

    Buffon, Tzorvas

    Badstuber, Hummels. Pepe, Alba, Selaisse

    Pirlo, Marchiso, Nasri, Fortunis, Pilar

    Nani, Gomez, CR7

    Only Spanish defence, too much uncertainty over Torres/Fab. Iniesta not worth 9.5 for the returns he's giving IMO. Spanish points too spread out in attack.

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    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Lol he's gonna jump at you again for having two DMs.

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      1. Grounderz
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        And from the looks of things, I wouldn't have Pirlo and Marchisio together. If money isn't problem, Schweinsteiger over Marchisio then for me.

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    2. A.
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      From the Spanish games i'e watched Silva has looked very good, though he's pricey at 10.5, I'm tempted by a Gomez/CR7/Silva front line, and try to fit in everything else around that.

      I already decided on a Pirlo/Pilar/Fortuonis combination in midfield, that looks good, but I don't know that I want to get rid of the keeper rotation strategy just yet, in the semis there is likely to be at least one sub-4.5 keeper available to transfer in before the final.

      I like the double German defence too, not sure about Marchisio and Pirlo though

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  20. thebizzle
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    For QF team

    A) Benzema

    B) Nani

    C) Toress

    ?

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    1. Grounderz
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Nani.

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    2. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Nani, especially if you dont have Ronaldo

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  21. Matt_
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Best MF for 8mil ? Thanks

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    1. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Pirlo if you can find 0.1

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      1. Grounderz
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        +1

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  22. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    D) Silva

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    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Reply fail to THEBIZZLE

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  23. Henry Hill
    • 16 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Robert Green is joining QPR apparently

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  24. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Who do we think plays in defense for Italy now?

    Will they go back to a 3-5-2, and who will play?

    Maggio, Barzagli, De Rossia, Bonucci, Giaccherini

    Or will they reward their 4-4-2 defenders with Abate and Balzaretti starting?

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    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Only members of Italy defence I would consider buying are Buffon and Barzagli. Too much uncertainty over everyone else.

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      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah Barzagli is a bit of a steal at 5.9 and extra RBs. I'm finding a way to get him in..

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  25. Touré De Force
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Menez is 4.6 mill and classed as a MF in Maccy D game. What a snip!

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    1. Touré De Force
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      *Sky game ldo

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  26. suvoneel
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    ozil or schwen? wht about nasri and benz for qf?

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    1. Sera
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Unless Benz pulls something special out of the bag tonight I will struggle to consider him for my QF team.

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      1. suvoneel
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        he is almost certain to get goals tonight.....regardless of his performance tonight, will u keep him?

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  27. mark165
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    I have one transfer left in the Sky game, I'm thinking one of these:

    1) Young
    2) Walcott
    3) Nasri
    4) Ibra

    I've got Benzema and Rooney. Which would be the best bet? Cheers

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    1. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Nasri

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  28. JK - Cønt ⭐
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Should I worry about no Portugal defence for the qfs

    Can afford this defence

    Buffon, Tzorvas

    Barzagli, any 2 Germans, Alba, Gebre Selaisse.

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    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      It's quite nice to have 1 Portugal defender and 1 Czech. That way, one of them stays for the semis no matter what and you save a transfer.

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      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 5 months ago

        That is what I'm thinking, but who to drop for him? and who to get?

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        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          13 years, 5 months ago

          I just dropped Alba for Coentrao.

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          1. JK - Cønt ⭐
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            no Spanish defence?

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          2. JK - Cønt ⭐
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 5 months ago

            given the amount of possession they have, Spain have to be good value for CS, you can't score if you don't have the ball.

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            1. Camzy
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 15 Years
              13 years, 5 months ago

              Mmm fair.

              Alba's back in... This is hard...

              I have Jiracek in now.

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            2. Grounderz
              • 14 Years
              13 years, 5 months ago

              I think it's fair to look at who our opponent is. I see the sense in dropping Alba for Coentrao. Portugal have a higher chance to qualify with a clean sheet than Spain do. Damn effing ball is round... so hard to speculate.

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              1. suvoneel
                • 13 Years
                13 years, 5 months ago

                portugal will concede no matter who they r playing against..i'd say, spain have better chances of keeping clean sheet against england given how england plays in knock out rounds

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  29. Can’t beat em so&hell…
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    This may be a little different from the usual? Did it without looking a all the others posted here. Please rmt...

    Rui patricio , sifakis

    Abate, alba, lescott, Boateng, maniatis

    Nasri, diarra, Iniesta, fabregas, Pilar

    Gomes, ronaldo, cassano

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    1. King Nemanja
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      Abate - won't play
      Lescott - will concede to spain
      Diarra- won't do much
      Iniesta - too expensive
      Fab - might not play

      These are all just my opinions of course! Im sure others will disagree

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    2. Touré De Force
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 5 months ago

      I like Diarra

      # FlairPick

      Imo

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  30. Matt_
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 5 months ago

    Any thoughts on who to choose for the last 3 spots?

    Rui Patrício / Sifakis

    Barzagli / Hummels / Jordi Alba / Boateng / Gebre Selassie

    Fortounis / Pilař / Nasri / ?? / ??

    Cristiano Ronaldo / Gomez / ??

    I have 24.3 mil left and was thinking Silva, Pirlo and one other. But the problem with that is I am left with just 5.6 mil for a MF. So, any suggestions?

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