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I faced the same dilemma and decided to stick with Shaw, partly due to ownershipz

I've gone with Shaw, because I have Lukaku instead of CR7 in my team...and don't want to be missing on United points in case Ronnie hits the ground running

Rudiger. If they can stop LFC scoring in open play at anfield with 10 men for half of the match. I doubt spurs or city will trouble em.

Your current team could easily outscore your new team I don't see much in it. I'd at most take a hit this week personally.

I would do it, can get kaku and check def GW7

All very valid points. I think GW4 WCers are building a team that can make it’s way to GW7 and onwards. Look at the current WC template. It’s 2/3 transfers away from what GW7 will likely be looking too. With the exception of the Chelsea boys.

I like the sound of it, especially as I'm resisting the urge to wc now myself. Im looking at double Chelsea defence and big rom going forward from gw7.

Looks a pretty drab week to WC to me. I'll have 2-3 Chelsea players by the time it comes around. Nobody else really with an appealing fixture swing. Southampton? Na, prefer the look of Wolves, Arsenal, Watford in 4 and Norwich/Leeds in 5. Along with pumping my team full off all the desirable players this IB that are going up 0.1 so I can choose more easily

Salah has scored in 3 of his last 4 games vs Man City… and he’s at Anfield with fans, on penalties

That sale has pain written all over it

Precisely Camzy.

WCing early (GW3) was a tragedy for me past two seasons. Will be keeping it longer this time.

I actually think you can keep the WC for longer than GW8. Having put my current team into livefpl's team planner and planned transfers, my GW8 side looks very good...

All valid points. I’ve always had my best seasons wildcarding between GW3-6. I think jumping on players early to amass team value is the way to go. You can easily plan now for 3 GW time with the fixture swings.

Great points Camzy and completely. I have had a similar story with my first wildcards last two seasons which were the biggest reason behind me finishing 141k & 175k.

Really want to nail it this season and like you said GW8 seems like the perfect week for it.
Currently thinking Salah & DCL out for Lukaku & Mount/Havertz in GW7 and then wildcard in GW8 to get Salah and the best 3 Chelsea players.

Isn't something that gets missed the weeks preceeding wildcard. My team is currently ok but not great, so I will be running it into the ground with very short term transfers until the team is completely broke. That should get me extra points as well compared with long term planning.

As I can recall, never WC-ed beyond GW5 regardless of the start but this season I will hold until GW7. Let's see how it goes!

Back in the good old days you only got 1 WC

I blew both my wildcards last season. My biggest take away was that I thought too much about the players that I was bringing in, but I didn't think about the players I was taking out.

The reason I didn't wildcard this week is that I have nobody other than Ings and Bruno that I need to remove. I have 2 free transfers so it's sorted with that.

By game week 7 I will have 4 players that need to potentially be removed (if everyone stays healthy). It might be the right time to wildcard then as it is 4 changes in the starting 11 and i can rejig my bench.

I don't know how the upcoming weeks will pan out but it may be that I take out one of those players, so if I only need to take a minus 4 to remove the players I need to in gmw7/8 I may not even use it.

The optimum time in my opinion is to use it when you have too many fires to put out. Forget about fixture swings and all that nonsense. If your team is in bad shape use it.

Thoughtful post as usual, Camzy. Thanks for it.

So you wildcard, then the next week see what your team scored vs what your old team scored, and that's what you judge it on?

Here's the thing, good players will score goals and get assists. Every transfer out and transfer in have the potential for large points swings week to week. It's luck. Changing your whole team increase this volatility 10 fold. It is the same whenever you use it. Gw8 will be the same. These swings are meaningless, part of FPL. You can lose 50 points instantly with the wildcard and still assess the situation and see it was a good decision and well executed.

Your way of thinking here is just kneejerk.

You make some great points Camzy and people don't have to agree. I have been playing FF since 2001 and FPL from 2006 and I have made many mistakes.
I don't see why there has been so much negative reaction and please don't let that stop you making insights. In the end it is only advice and people reading can choose to take it or not.
I love reading these threads and sometimes it makes me think twice. I am actually only on 221 points, way behind in terms of the first three weeks, but I am happy with the total as I know an average of 75 points would probably win the league.
One piece of advice I can give is that if you get really stressed with decisions each week, it will probably be to the detriment of you final score, whereas having a plan in place, and reacting to small adjustments is a great strategy. I generally wildcard and take a few hits in first 10 game weeks, not minding the odd hit (-4) to build the value of squad, so I can build over the season.

Anyway!! My main point is I, and I am sure many, like your insights and would appreciate them coming as often as you can.

Happy Sunday people

Depends on what you are looking at as replacement. Comparison might help.

I’d get rid of Barnes and ings for a -4 I think but if you’re very adverse to hits you could just get rid of Barnes for the like of sarr, either will obviously mean keeping Bruno over Ronaldo so up to you to weigh up the pro’s and cons of that

Ings Bruno > Ron Torres

Just Barnes out I think

A

A is safer for sure. But we surely can't expect arsenal to be this bad over this entire good fixture run so esr could be a good punt. I'd take A personally

B for me although I will ride Traore Torres ESR for 2 GWs (non-WC)

Probably

Yes. Dier not nailed. Lower ceiling.

More worth it early. Use it to bring in players you'll want for a while. That number greatly reduces as the season progresses.

I never choose 1 FT + 1 Hit. I plan my hits in combination with 2 FTs. 3 transfers at one go really helps to restructure/ fix issues.

I like taking them but also trying to cut down a bit, will take one this week to bring in Ronaldo most likely

More inclined to take them in order to restructure team for the medium term in this instance getting the premium striker slot for Ronaldo, Kane or lukaku

I'm a great fan of the mini wildcard. A four point hit can sometimes be points well spent if you time it correctly.

-4s only when I am extremely unhappy with the team I have and falling behind in the chase. Else wait for 1 week to make the other transfer, unless the players you are getting in have higher chances of recovering the hit points in the same GW

All situational - not one size fits all

There’’s probably a rather loose order of precedence with them, from most justifiable, to least, in a single gameweek:

Hits for:
1. Captaincy
2. Attackers
3. Defenders
4. Goalkeepers
5. Subs

And hits for Team Value are a big no-no in my book - don’t worry about TV at all

Hate hits, max 5 hits a season

It depends how you play. I think the key is a consistent approach across the season.

Without hits team turnover takes 11 weeks. Increasing the number of hits reduces this number. Different transfer strategies require different horizons to be used in planning.

Transitioning your team is key imo. Doing this too slowly keeps you behind the curve and does more damage than a few hits, both in points and team value. I use hits to stay ahead of form and fixture swings, getting my team in shape quickly and then maintaining it from there with free transfers until I feel like I’m behind the curve again. Works okay for me.

If its involves getting rid off two/ three bad picks and getting in good picks its ok. If the hit involves downgrading a good player to afford your transfers…there will often be tears.

Depends on your ability to predict the future. And you need to be very objective about how good you are at predicting outcomes in FPL.

There are some people who, on average, are good at predicting outcomes (not saying they get it right all the time, but they get it right more than enough to profit). Others are not.

If you are a good predictor, then hits are worthwhile. If you are not a good predictor then hits are not worth it.

This is something I've thought about a fair bit. I think a minus 4 is only worth it if it is for a player that you plan on holding for a lot of games. If you want that player for 4 to 6 gameweeks then it may be worth it if the player you are removing has a tough run of fixtures for that period.

Last season was my first season playing as an "engaged" manager and I took far too many hits because I wanted the players right now. So dumb when I think about it.

I don't like them unless they gain me additional fixtures (e.g. taking out BGW players or bringing in DGW players). Closing in on a full year of not having taken one in a SGW.

To me, the manager to emulate is Magnus Carlsen. He makes a good number of very maverick upside chasing moves, but conserves transfers so he doesn't need to take as many hits as someone like Lateriser.

As a further advantage, very few try to follow his methods closely because he doesn't create FPL content. You have to take the time to go and look at what he does yourself.

I’m on B. Is it better? Dunno.

Sarr has good fixtures, a bit of pedigree, talisman role, and will surely have penalties now with Deeney gone

If he hits his straps properly he could be 3 or 4 returns better off by the end of GW6

B is a bit risky but could easily be the best of the bunch.

If Firmino is injured Jota is the best shout otherwise I like Raphinha.

Jota

Same situation, but can’t bring in Jota((Tsimikas). I will wait a little with Raphinha because of GW4 fixture. Thinking Benrahma to Raph next GW. Mount not good enough fixtures before GW7.

Its between Torres and Sarr for me. Probably gamble on Torres and can WC him out GW7/8.

Raph

B. Reg should make it easier to jump on Chelsea defence in gwk 7

A, not sure Sanchez is nailed

No way 😛

No. Way. Don't get pulled into the group think. Tough to resist with everyone posting WC teams. It's a solid team.

There could be alot of upside in it, worth the risk imo

I think they look good. Maybe wait with Barnes to Traore, do you have a good 1 bench player?

Not Traore. Great player just not FF enough for me

Is this WC? And you have already planned for a hit after WC? Please don't ...

Gtg

Bar TAA obv, very nice team. I'd get Salah now though over Son. You my HAVE TO use that transfer for something more prioritising

Looks good. Though I'd get sanchez over Sa and SAISS/Semedo/Rudiger over Christiansen

Bit late to use WC due to price rises/falls. Keep for now

A for sure.

Thanks guys

Gray.

Gray or ESR, maybe whichever of Trincao or Podence stays nailed

0.1 opens you up to the likes of Sarr, Traore & Soucek though

Elnyoussi somehow posted a colossal 1.6 XG vs Newcastle too, although not sure whether that was just a freak

Trincao, Gray

I think ESR will come good with these juicy fixtures coming up.

He has the look of a man who’s about to score 7 goals in his next 3 games

They really, really shouldn't. You seen CR play of late? Even at 36 he's not bad.

I agree, what makes people think he'll outscore Lukaku over the next 2. Tottenham defense is laughable and WHU could easily park the bus against United

People with Bruno feel the writing is on the wall and don’t want to miss out on a juicy fixture vs Newcastle.
Especially those already triggered a wildcard

I'm holding off for now. Maybe to my detriment but I don't want to mess with my team or take hits. Bruno still no slouch.

It's Ronaldo. One of the fittest players in the world. He'll be fine.

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From what I remember Lukaku was a bit of a flat track bully, plus probably isn't on pens. Hard couple of fixtures after the next game. Wouldn't get till gw7.

Almost identical to what i want. Thinking reg over dias in defense though

Yet to see a wildcard team with 3 premiums that I like. Not a single one looks worth it, and it's a struggle to make one myself. Happily sitting back now whilst 1000's burn their most powerful chip.

Barnes -> Sarr

Barnes to Sarr or Torres will be the move I make
I have Harrison instead of Raph but the same midfield 5

Wait for update on DCL before making any decisions - And if Firmino out For a few games then Jota good choice- but you will need to free up space with hit for that

B

I owned Semedo last season and he frustrated me no end. I'd limit your investment in Wolves for now.

Allan. Thus far anyway.

Gilmour. Nailed to start, has a bit of assist potential, doesn't use up a valuable spot in other teams.

Douglas Luiz after GW7. Gets some odd assists and will take long shots.

I’d go Gilmour with the upcoming improvement in fixtures for Norwich.

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Not at all. He's a great option.

There's been a couple of lad bible posts etc. But I'm a member of multiple ticket groups and they are mostly selling for £250.