Spot the Differential

Budget FPL defender Mitchell can capitalise on Palace’s good fixtures

Gameweek 11 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Crystal Palace, Southampton and Liverpool who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

TYRICK MITCHELL

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW11-15 fixtures: WOL | bur | AVL | lee | MUN

Tyrick Mitchell (£4.5m) has played every minute of Premier League action so far this season, and has been a standout performer in Patrick Vieira’s new-look Crystal Palace.

The academy graduate, 22, has won at least eight more tackles than any other defender in the division, whilst he also leads his team-mates for interceptions. Despite that, he rarely commits a foul, and has conceded just five in total all season.

Mitchell has just one Premier League goal and assist to his name to date – both of which came in a 3-2 win against Aston Villa back in May – but now playing under a more progressive coach, could be set to add to his tally soon.

Tactically, Joel Ward (£4.5m) has tended to play as a more defence-minded right full-back under Vieira this season, tucking in to form a back-three in possession, while Mitchell has been able to push on a little more, almost performing as a wing-back at times. As a result, only Wilfried Zaha (£6.9m) – who he is forging a good relationship with – and Conor Gallagher (£5.7m) have accumulated more touches in the final third.

As for Palace, they have lost just two of their opening 10 league games, against Chelsea and Liverpool, and impressively beat Manchester City 2-0 at the Etihad last weekend. The underlying numbers are encouraging, too, as only Pep Guardiola’s side can boast a lower expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while going forward, they rank mid-table in most of the key attacking metrics.

It’s also worth noting that beyond the schedule detailed above, Palace take on Southampton (h), Watford (a) and Norwich City (h) before the end of the year, and rank top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture between Gameweeks 11 and 20.

The likes of Gallagher, Zaha and Marc Guehi (£4.5m) have all caught the eye at Selhurst Park this season, but Mitchell should be included in that group too, and could be a nice budget differential for our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) squads.

JAMES WARD-PROWSE

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.3m
  • GW11-15 fixtures: AVL | nor | liv | LEI | BHA

After recording a career-high 15 attacking returns in FPL last season, James Ward-Prowse (£6.3m) – now back from suspension – is an interesting differential for the next two fixtures.

A product of the Saints academy, the 27-year-old has become a vital part of manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s midfield set-up, and played every minute of the club’s previous two Premier League campaigns. 

Key to Ward-Prowse’s appeal is his ability from set-pieces and deliveries from wide areas. This season, he is averaging 7.5 crosses per 90 minutes, while Gameweek 11 opponents Aston Villa have conceded 44 attempts direct from set-plays, which ranks 19th amongst all teams in the division. Those frailties were evident recently against both Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers, when Dean Smith’s side looked particularly vulnerable defending dead-ball situations.

It’s also worth noting that Ward-Prowse has found the back of the net twice in eight appearances this term, against Newcastle United and Chelsea, both from the penalty spot, while he has also created 11 chances and as a result, 0.78 expected assists (xA). 

Southampton are an improving side, who have taken points from Man City and West Ham United this season, and are now unbeaten in the last three league fixtures. Both of their next two opponents sit in the bottom three of the last six form table, which suggests that Ward-Prowse could do well as a 2.1% owned differential.

SADIO MANE

  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £11.9m
  • GW11-15 fixtures: whu | ARS | SOU | eve | wol

Having included Sadio Mané (£11.9m) in this column ahead of Gameweek 1, he has since gone on to bag attacking returns in seven of his nine Premier League starts, and now ranks fourth in the player standings, with 57 FPL points.

Across the opening ten Gameweeks, he ranks second amongst all players for non-penalty expected goals (non-pen xG) and third for goal attempts, shots in the box and expected goal involvement (xGI). All of those totals are behind team-mate Mohamed Salah (£12.9m), of course, but as a differential tactic, there could be an argument to pair him up with the Egyptian, and double-up on Liverpool’s premium midfielders.

Notably, the Reds’ attacking form has gone up another gear in 2021/22. Jurgen Klopp’s side remain unbeaten in all competitions this season, and have racked up a whopping 41 goals in their last 13 matches alone, averaging over three goals per game. During that run, they have scored at least two goals each time, and recently hit five against Manchester United, Watford and FC Porto in the UEFA Champions League. It’s also worth noting that they comfortably lead their Premier League rivals for goals scored, shots in the box, big chances, efforts on target and expected goals (xG).

Next up for Liverpool is a tricky trip to in-form West Ham United, before they take on Arsenal (h) – who have conceded more chances from their right-flank than any other Premier League side this term – Southampton (h), Everton (a) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (a).

Mané has delivered a string of impressive displays in 2021/22, and is an intriguing differential to sit alongside Salah in our FPL midfields.

407 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    This hasn’t been a great week for team value holding Armstrong and sarr

  2. subhojit123
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Hey guys.. Need a bit of help over here. Whom should I go for -
    1. Smith-rowe
    2. Mbeumo (have toney)

    1. Feed tha Sheep
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      1

  3. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts on Cancelo/Chilwell/James with Livra/Duffy on bench as a long term def?

    Could go Rudi over James but maybe James worth the risk ?

    1. masewindu
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      That is my defence. Rudiger over Chillwell in mine. Much of the sameness. Rudiger plays but the bench players are great so 5 at the back is possible this week.

  4. Feed tha Sheep
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Which two to BENCH this weekend?

    A. Antonio
    B. Livramento
    C. Cancelo
    D. Raphina

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      AB

    2. Disco Stu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I have the same guys and I'm benching A

      1. masewindu
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Anyone know Antonio's record against the top 3 or Liverpool in particular?

  5. HarryJose22
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Have Cancelo, Dias, Alonso and Azpilicueta after a disastrous gw8 wildcard thinking the two Chelsea assets would be good bets at the time.

    Azpi/Alonso --> James or Chilwell?

  6. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Would you save the FT this week and roll 2 for the IB, or use it as a Punt and then WC over the IB?

    Meslier, Foster
    Chilwell, TAA, Livramento, White, Digne
    Raphina, Salah, Son, Townsend, Gilmour
    Toney, Antonio, Jesus.

    Cheers, chaps.

    1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Teams safe for a roll imo maybe look at getting digne or townsend out

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yes, them, Meslier and Gilmour would go on a WC, but it's when is the best time to wildcard if not next week.

        1. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          also my headache

  7. gstegnar
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Ramsdale, Foster
    Rudiger, Cancelo, Livramento, TAA, White
    Raphinha, Havertz, Salah, Brownhill, Mbeumo
    Armstrong, Vardy, Antonio

    2FT, 1,5 ITB

    I have to replace Vardy and Antonio... and probably Havertz. Any suggestions how to balance this?

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I would do White -> James/Chilwell and save the other FT

    2. masewindu
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Not sure if u sell Antonio how much the price will drop 8.2m to buy but i get 7.8m?? In five weeks when he gets a nice run. What do you think it cost then to buy back?

      1. gstegnar
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Good point.

  8. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Gtg? or hit required?

    Sanchez
    Rudiger Chilwell Cancelo
    Saka Salah (c) Raph Foden
    Antonio Toney CR7

    Foster White Brownhill Williams

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gtg

  9. GE
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Lost on last page

    1) Rudiger -> James
    2) Cancelo -> James
    3) Antonio -> Hwang/Jimenez
    4) Other suggestions?
    5) Do nothing and waste a FT

    (2FT, 0.0 itb)

    Ramsdale
    TAA/Cancelo/Chilwell/Rudiger
    Salah/Son/Raphinha/Mbeumo
    Vardy/Antonio

    Bench: Foster, Livramento, Davis

    1. Goonsquad245
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      1, great team

      1. GE
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks mate

    2. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I did Rudiger to James this week.

    3. Atimis
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      As you have 2FTs, I would play with Antonio as it is the only spot that could be moved here this week imo. Maybe punt on Toney?

    4. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      3 > Hwang

    5. Kryptonite666
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      who is your 5th midfielder?

  10. BeWater
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Sometimes in life you wake up and wonder how did it come to this. How the hell did this happen. This is how I feel everytime I look at my team and see Ismaila Sarr.

    1. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      So annoying isn’t he, has absolutely plummeted in value

      Annoyingly it looks like I’ll have him for another week or 2 as well

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Same goes for Digne

      2. BeWater
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I bought him at 6.1 so haven't lost any money on him but after another blank v Arsenal he will likely go down again.

        1. Steve The Spud
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Think he’s down to 6.0 now

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I had him just in time for his good run buy always envisaged it as a short-term thing, I've been lucky that, although I have had other issues, I've still been able to drop players like him and Gray in good time

  11. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Whoop whoop

    Feel almost as if this was written just for me 🙂

  12. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Hmmm.. Benching dilemma

    Play
    Cancelo/Foden/Antonio

    Bench Livremenco/White/Benrahma ?

    Or whats my alternative play here?

    1. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Play Foden
      Bench Benrahma

  13. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Chilwell or James?

    1. tangtastic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Oh stop it.

  14. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Give A.Armstrong one more game or get Toney?

    1. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Broja news should be here any second, if he’s back I’m selling to much risk of cameo to start imo and also dropping again in value

      1. Hansel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        He's at -1%, no way he is dropping ahead of the deadline

        1. Steve The Spud
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah sorry he’s already dropped

          Anyway he’s a usless pick now, 6m for a striker not starting and likely to cameo in the 80th minute

    2. JBG
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Broja is fit to play.

      1. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks JB

  15. I Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I guess Jota is now a keep with the Firmino injury?

    1. JBG
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Easy keep if you have him, yeah.

    2. BeWater
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Definitely. Funny how things change so quick. When I saw him start last night I was contemplating a hit to get him out.

    3. Voodoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah, definitely for the next few.

    4. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Keep this week, yes. Could be fit after IB

  16. Tor Total Football
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Any changes needed here? Is the bench in the right order?

    Ederson

    TAA, Chilwell, Cancelo, James

    Salah(c), Son, Foden, ESR, Mbeumo

    Toney(v)

    Steele, Hwang, Edouard, Livramento

    0FT & 1.7m ITB

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Only starting 1 of your 3 playing forwards is a recipe for disappointment.

      Steele Hwang sounds like a p*rn parody of Iron Man

  17. space mercenary
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Nice article. Had Mane a couple of weeks now. Will be swapping out Raya for Guaita this week because of the Palace defensive stats. Not sure why so many have gone for Ramsdale. I'm not convinced his points tallies are sustainable longer term.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Going for Guita here too. Never ever had him before so hoping for the best and expecting the worst.

  18. Mane Mane Mane
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Is it worth downgrading Cancelo or Rudiger to a 4.5 to then be able to get Ronaldo for Vardy?

    1. space mercenary
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No, IMO.

  19. BlzE_94
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    GTG?

    Sanchez
    TAA Cancelo Chilwell James(c) Livramento
    Salah Raphina ESR
    Ronaldo Vardy

    Steele Gray Sissoko Locadia

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Good. Not keen on James (c) though.

  20. I Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Sanchez
    TAA, Cancelo, James
    Salah, Havertz, Jota, Raphinha
    Antonio, Jimenez, Toney

    Steele; White, Livramento, Sissoko.

    2 FT 3.4 ITB

    Was all set on Jota to Son but now that Firmino is injured I want to keep Jota. Do I do Havertz to Son or something else?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Here comes the Son, du du du

  21. Kane Train
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Which one to bring in for Gray?

    A) Mbeumo
    B) Gallagher

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Mbeumo if no Toney

    3. Chris_H
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Wait for a week and go Cornet? Otherwise Gallagher probably

  22. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Antonio and Christensen to Chilwell and Toney or Williams and Antonio to Hwang and Chilwell? Both for hits

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      2nd one

  23. Voodoo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Would you bench boost this?

    Fernandez Foster
    TAA Cancelo James Chilwell Livramento
    Jota Smith-Rowe Foden Son Salah
    Toney Antonio Broja

    Thanks.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I wouldn't consider it for myself, but certainly have a strong XV

    2. masewindu
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Id wait till Mid Dec to get the dohble game weks

  24. simong1
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Worth doing Coady to Chilwell for a -4? Already have James and Christensen

    1. AppleDunk
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Not for a hit for me

  25. Booked4Dissent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Rudiger to James?

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Plenty of it about

  26. AppleDunk
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who should I sell to get James?

    A) Rudiger
    B) White
    C) Cancelo

    Other defenders are TAA and Livra.

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. Voodoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. More Cowbell
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      a) possibly
      b) I wouldn't based on current form and fixtures
      c) I wouldn't based on player's ability to produce attacking returns even if fixtures not great

    4. AppleDunk
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Thanks guys for the replies!

  27. More Cowbell
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Hey guys, would you roll the FT with this lot?
    Not sure where I would strengthen with just 1FT and 0.0ITB

    Sanchez
    Liv, TAA, James
    Salah, Havertz, Foden, Raph
    Antonio, Vardy, Toney

    Steele, White, Shaw, Brownhill

    1. AppleDunk
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gtg. Good to have 2 FTs for the IB.

  28. dshv
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Play one:

    1. Antonio
    2. Hwang

    1. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Hwang

  29. Gunners in Haaland
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Captain:

    A) Salah
    B) Kane

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Really?

      A, A and thrice A

      1. Gunners in Haaland
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks 🙂

  30. Le Bluff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    With Ralph confirming Broja as fit, pick one to start this GW:

    1) Broja (AVL) - doubts over starting but good differential
    2) Christensen (BUR) - I have Chilwell
    3) Livramento (AVL)

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      1 - you'll be annoyed if he does start and you don't pick him

    2. masewindu
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Tricky...id be tempted to punt on Livramento due to his attacking instincts but Prowse is back and he will be on set pieces. Go with the forward.