Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. HeyHeyDembo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A. Walker + Alonso
    B. Cancelo + Dalot

    1. JAYPEE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

    2. cb68
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

    3. fricky_
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

    4. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

  2. Patron
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I guess not taking a hit is good enough to climb this week lol

    1. _Gunner
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Unless hits pay off

      1. Patron
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Some will surely

    2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      yes unless your players start dropping like flies

      1. Patron
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Well I have a lot of flagged players too, but don’t feel like taking hits. Just saying I might come good, even without eleven playing, since there are so many taking minuses 🙂

  3. M_Rega96
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Already done a -4, still got Jota, ESR and Raph, plus no playing GK. Only Allan playing on the bench.
    Worth another -4 or just see this week out?
    Got 0.5 ITB

    1. FPLrookie2009
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      No, ESR he's likely to play and Raph is good enough to get some points against Chelsea.

      1. M_Rega96
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Just hold Jota then and accept it for what it is? Starting to think not taking massive hits might be ok this week

  4. Colesy34
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    yes good move

  5. boombaba
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Can we play the WC we get next year before GW21 deadline on 1st Jan or do we get it after that GW?

    1. Ron_Swanson
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      You can play it any time after 11:01 on Tuesday 28th December

  6. JAYPEE
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Jota to Bernardo Silva?

    1. TSN
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      yes

    2. Catastrophe
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Hmm yes, if you can't get him in another way. Obviously yes for this GW.

  7. TSN
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Choose one

    A. Toney Reguilon Son -> CR7 Dalot Fornal
    B. Toney Jimenez Son -> CR7 King Bowen

    Cheers

    1. JAYPEE
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B
      Are you going to bench Reguilon if you go B?

      1. TSN
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        yup, if i go with B i'll play with 3 defenders, TAA-cancelo-white

    2. Catastrophe
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      b

      1. TSN
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers mate

    3. cb68
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

  8. BobbyDoesNotLook
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    King, Dennis and Mbuemo - we feast today! (Inevitable 0-0)

  9. Lecky Legs FC
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Any changes needed for my WC team?

    Bachmann
    Cancelo Dalot TAA James
    Bernardo Fornals Mount Salah (©)
    Dennis Ronaldo

    Subs Sanchez,Broja,Ramsey & Johnson

    0.6 ITB

    1. fricky_
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Bowen instead of Fornals surely?

      1. Lecky Legs FC
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Purposely brought in Fornals over Bowen as a differential also leaves me with the option to bring back Jota next GW with the extra 0.6 ITB

  10. CruxOfTheBiscuit
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    GK question - like some on here I have Sanchez and Foster. The majority of advice I see is to go Sanchez -> (another GK).
    What is the reasoning for shipping out Sanchez (covid for a week or two) rather than Foster (flagged injured till mid-Jan)?

    Thanks for any feedback, just trying to understand the justification.

  11. Erez Avni
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    awful situation but need to play one:
    A. Raphinha
    B. Broja

    1. TSN
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      A

    2. Catastrophe
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Close, probably B. and not that bad a situation (see below) 😀

  12. Catastrophe
    • 15 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Would never consider FH in a non-BGW usually but on a -12 with likely only 9-10 starters. Thinking it may be a surprisingly good week to climb rank versus Teams taking hits/not fielding 11?

    Votes/Advice greatly appreciated! The Teams aren't too different but I don't lose 12 points and will have 11...

    A) No FH (-12)

    Ramsdale
    TAA, Cancelo, James
    Salah, Bernardo, Mount, Jota*, ESR*
    Ronaldo, Dennis
    (no bench)

    B) FH

    Ederson
    TAA, Cancelo, James, Rudiger
    Salah, Bernardo, Mount, Bowen
    Ronaldo, Origi

    (3.9, Dennis, Dalot, Fred)

    If FH, will be left with Kane, Reguilon & Dier back in my Team for next week.

    Cheers!

    1. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I wouldn’t FH myself. Seems like ESR is fit, he trained today. Jota is a worry but that’s 1 player really to worry about

      1. Catastrophe
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers. Yes, presumably 10 players and a -12 to weigh up versus FH. Sensible option would be to save of course but my focus is H2H so changes a little.

    2. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Kane, Reguilon and Dier may not play next week either. Just kicking the can down the road if you FH.

      1. Catastrophe
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yes - agree - to an extent, although that could be fixed next week either with no hit or a -4.

  13. I Member
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    A) Sanchez -> DDG -4
    B) Play without a keeper

    1. Dezzler
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      B

  14. Colonel Shoe 肝池
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    jota to mount for -4?

    1. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Considering the same thing.

      Could be a good move, but as have double Chelsea already, I'm unsure. Will most likely want to ship Alonso, plus Mount, for Chelsea's two blanks. So is essentially a short term luck.

  15. My neck my back my Saed Kol…
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    What’s the thoughts on benching jota? I fear a 20 minute cameo if he doesn’t start but I want him playing if he does.

    Consensus is?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If he's not fit, he won't play is my assumption.

    2. Cheeky Onion
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I have him 2nd bench behind Dalot, White, Dennis and Gray

  16. akhilrajau
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    De gea, Benchman
    TAA, James, Cancelo, White, Williams
    Salah, Jota, BSilva, Bowen, Brownhill
    CR7, King, Dennis
    Bank: 0.1m
    Final suggestio. Need to remove jota or can hold?

    A. Jota, Brownhill, Dennis -> Mount, Gray, Broja
    B. Jota, Brownhill, Dennis -> Mount, Saka, Locardia
    C. Jota is fine in the team

  17. Los Gooners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Bottomed:

    Ramsdale / Foster
    TAA / Cancelo / Rudi / James / Williams
    Salah / Jota / Gallagher / Bowen / Brownhill
    CR7 / King / Jesus

    Jesus to Antonio for -4?

    1. Cheeky Onion
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      If Jesus if fit to play, I wouldn't

  18. Cheeky Onion
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    On WC with 0.0 ITB - G2G?

    DDG
    TAA - Cancelo - James - Dalot - White
    Salah - Jota - Silva - Bowen
    Ronaldo

    Gunnarsson - Gray - Dennis - Locadia

    Not sure about United triple up and also what to do with Jota?

  19. Bobby Digital
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Are we still waiting for some news? Wondering if I can finalize my moves.

    1. Patron
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Wonder the same, Norwich is the one everyone is afraid of I think, but not sure it will be before deadline.

      1. Bobby Digital
        • 8 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Nor Utd could be off?

        1. Patron
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I’m not really sure, but Smith said they’re waiting on some test results…

    2. Andy_Social
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Supposedly City and Liverpool are training soon, so there might be photos or further news on Foden and Jota.

      1. Patron
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Wow thanks that’s nice to know.

  20. Pringle
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Sanchez or Steele to DDG? Surely worth to have a backup GK with the covid uncertainty over christmas?

    1. Kodap
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I'm debating a -8 to do one of Sanchez/Steele > DDG.. just to field 10 players this week.

  21. Kodap
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone debating playing their FH, feeling like I don't want to take a -8, but going to have to if I even want to field 10 players.. maybe not even 11?

    Sanchez
    TAA - Rudiger - Cancelo - James
    Salah - Jota - Bernardo
    Antonio - Dennis - Broja

    Steele - ESR - Son - Lamptey

  22. TKC07
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Any update on when Johnson return timeline?

    Whom should I transfer out to get Dalot?
    A) Johnson
    B) Livra

  23. winchester
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    GTG or anything worth a hit? leading ML, so would not fancy a hit tbh. cheers.

    ramsdale
    taa - cancelo - james - livra
    salah(C) - bernardo - jota
    antonio - dennis - hwang

    (foster - gilmour - reguilon - son)

  24. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    I think I'll just ride with Foden/Jota this week as i've already taken a hit and just hope one of them plays, other than that is this G2G?
    Guaita
    TAA - Cancelo - Rudiger
    Salah(C) - Foden - Jota - B.Silva - Mount
    King
    Foster - Livra - Gelhardt - Toney

    1. FirminoIsBetterThanYou
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Ben White as 4th Defender

  25. Giovanni Giorgio
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Wanna go Foden over Bilva. Talk me out of it please.

    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Don't do it

    2. MOZIL
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Get Foden

    3. Patron
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Don’t like gettin flagged players and even Pep said he’s not 100%. Tho he played him a couple of times after saying hes not ready. Bald fraud as they say.

    4. Giovanni Giorgio
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Went with Bilva. Fully expecting a Foden haul now.

      1. Bobby Crush
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        right choice all things considered

  26. chelseabrad
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Are either Raph > Bowen or Livra > Dalot worth a -4? Got 11 playing already

  27. CoracAld2831
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    What to do with Jota?

    Apparently has a muscle injury and has been orange flagged...

    1. TKC07
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Not an owner. But I would keep him. Good chance he would be back before next GW..

    2. Patron
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      I’m keeping. But I'm not optimistic.

    3. Nabs Kebabs
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      booted for bilva

  28. Nespinha
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Not playing - Toney, Son, Reguilon
    Bench - ASM, Brownhill, Livramento (one may have to play)

    2FT, help me pick please:

    A) Toney + Son - Antonio + Bowen
    B) Son + Reguilon - Bowen + Alonso
    C) all 3 - Antonio + Bowen + Alonso

    any option allows Vardy (probably no game) - Ronaldo next week

  29. BobbyDoesNotLook
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Btw already taken hits should not affect your decision making whether to take another hit within same gw (except for whether to play a chip instead of more hits).

    The question:
    A) Raph
    B) Bowen -4

  30. BlzE_94
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    On a -4 already, is the team gtg as it is?

    de Gea
    TAA Cancelo James
    Salah Jota B.Silva Bowen ESR
    Vardy King

    Steele Livramento Reguilon Locadia