Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. umerlfc
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Best Sanchez replacement?

    A) Ramsdale
    B) De Gea
    C) Sa
    D) Guaita

    1. HD7
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A or B for me

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

    3. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      B

  2. Pukki Blinders
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    have Dalot. What GKs would you have on WC?

    A. DDG + Bachmann
    B. Ramsdale + Bachmann
    C. DDG + 3.9
    D. Ramsdale + 3.9

    1. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      D

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      C

  3. Devos
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    Bench one:
    a) ESR
    b) Gallagher
    c) Wilson
    d) Dennis

    1. BremerHB
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If you think ESR is out, Gallagher. Otherwise ESR.

  4. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 2 months ago

    I think KDB Foden & Jesus will start on bench-Mahrez,Grealish & Sterling front 3.Rodri Bilva & Cancelo return

    1. TopBinFc
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Good call, but god knows

    2. Pompel
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      Any hints from Rodgers on Vardy minutes ?

      1. Pompey5
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Having missed most of the last game i would expect him to start

        1. Pompel
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          He played 90 minutes in Europe, no?

      2. CRAZY TRAIN
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Fellow owner and my hunch is he will start with Daka like he did at Villa last weekend.

        1. Pompel
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Fingers crossed!

    3. Kodap
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      If I do Sanchez > DDG, would this team be G2G this week?

      DDG
      TAA - Rudiger - James - Cancelo
      Salah - ESR - Bernado
      Antonio - Dennis - Broja

      Steele - Jota - Son - Lamptey

    4. Boom XhakaLacaSaka
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 2 months ago

      A) Kane/Foden/B.johnson> CR7/Bilva/Dalot
      B) Kane/Davis/Reguilon > Cr7/Broja/Dalot

    5. TopBinFc
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Play with 9 players or take a hit of -8?

        1. Gazza2000
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Hit

      • King H
        • 14 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        is jota dead?

        1. Zimo
          • 7 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          No he's Portuguese

        2. Philosopher's Stones
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Nah, heart rate 72 per minute last I checked

          1. CRAZY TRAIN
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Hello, is there anybody in there?

            1. Philosopher's Stones
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Just nod if you can hear me

              1. Silva’s Left Nut
                • 9 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                Is there anyone home?

                1. Philosopher's Stones
                  • 5 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  There is no pain you are receding

                  1. CRAZY TRAIN
                    • 14 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    a distant ship smoke on the horizon...

                    1. Silva’s Left Nut
                      • 9 Years
                      4 years, 2 months ago

                      You are only coming through in waves

      • Jontharon
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Son to Mount for -4, or play ESR(Livramento if ESR wont start)?

        1. Gazza2000
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Take the hit

          1. Gazza2000
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Changed my mind, play ESR

        2. Peter O'Hanraha-hanrah…
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          I'd play ESR

      • AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Is Ederson, DDG or Ramsdale the best goalkeeping pick?

      • SIUUUUU
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Did an early-4 this week. First time I ever did an early transfer in the fear that I'd be priced out of a move. Injury/covid destroyed my team. Ended up using my free hit.

        Am I mad?

        1. Baps Hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          That's not madness, stupidity perhaps.

          1. mojoindojo
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Siu

      • tinear
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Sanchez
        TAA James Cancelo Livra
        Salah Bilva Gallagher Jota
        Antonio Dennis

        Foster Brownhill Kane Veltman
        0ft 0itb

        Which one of these?

        1. Kane Jota to Bowen/Mount and Ronaldo (-8)
        2. Jota to Bowen (-4, and 9 player on field)
        3. Kane Jota Foster to Ronaldo Bowen Ramsdale for -12 and field 11
        4. Jota to Bowen/Mount and play Livra
        5. WC
        6. Hold and play the above

      • matiakez
        • 15 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Play Livramento or take a -4 and do Reguillon to Dalat?

        1. chelseabrad
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Play Livra

      • striiiker
        • 7 Years
        4 years, 2 months ago

        Sanchez*, Foster*

        TAA, Cancelo, James, Livra, Reguilon*

        Salah, Gallagher, Jota*, ESR*, Son*,

        Wilson, Hwang, Toney*

        What the hell do I do?! 2 FT and 0.6 ITB used my wildcard. Tricky situation, any advice appreciated.

        Thanks.

        1. Scots Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 2 months ago

          Whoa. You've been hit bad.

          Honestly, in your predicament, I'd take the hits and get a team you're happy with for the Xmas period.

          -8 or -12 in your predicament is ok.

          1. Old Bull
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            This is good advice in these circumstances. It can be quite liberating when you accept you are going to lose points. In the past I’ve taken big hits, built a nice team for that GW and made a very respectable score.

          2. @persecuted_by_mods
              4 years, 2 months ago

              All he needs is a keeper and 1 other transfer will get him 11 players

          3. Jimmers
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 15 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            9 of those will start (I'm including ESR). I'd lose one of Son and Toney and one of the keepers.

            1. @persecuted_by_mods
                4 years, 2 months ago

                This, seems worse than it is especially with 2 FT and ESR all but confirmed fit

            2. striiiker
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Thanks all for the advice.

              I have been hit hard! I'm not sure, part of me wants to go big and make 4 changes but if I can get 11 out with two tranfers I guess that is the sensible thing to do.

              Decisions decisions!

          4. Rowley Birkin
            • 16 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I have Kane, Toney, Sanchez, Steele, Jota, Reguilon, Brandon Williams out. Smith Rowe is a doubt.

            Free hit time?

            1. Espanyolie
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              A bit of a shame to use it now as there will probably be blank gameweeks, but in you situation its maybe worth considering.

              A lot of people taking hits though.

              Would you be able to field 11 with a -8 ?

            2. Baps Hunter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              You have still Kane, Toney and Reguillon in your team next week. FH now, -8 next week?

            3. Home Late From Age
              • 10 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              seems so...

          5. The Final Boss
            • 8 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Why Jota is orange flagged? Based on klopp comments it should be yellow right?

            1. Philosopher's Stones
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Apparently Jota is allergic to yellow colour

            2. Baps Hunter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              It should. Perhaps they know more than we do?!?

            3. putana
              • 7 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              he hasnt trained at all. seems unlikely

            4. Rassi
              • 11 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Sounds to me he is less than 75 % likely to play so orange better than yellow, imo.

          6. RobMcM1991
            • 4 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Lads in serious need of HELP! What to do?

            Ramsdale
            Trent • Cancelo • Reguilon* • Livramento
            Salah • Raphina • Foden • Jota • Gallagher
            Kane*
            (Foster / Hwang / Amartey / Davis) 1FT 0.4ITB

          7. themaindanger
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            I can't remember a more difficult week.

            I have the following:
            Son - not playing (Covid)
            Dier - not playing (Covid)
            Duffy - not playing (Covid at Spurs and suspended)
            Toney - not playing (Covid)
            Sanchez (GK)- not playing (Covid at Spurs)
            Foden - flagged
            Jota - flagged

            I've already done Toney to Ronaldo and Son to Fred as I have 2FT.
            I'm going without a GK this week as my backup is Foster.
            If Foden and Jota both play I will get 10 outfield players. However I was going to take a -4 to bring in Dalot for Dier, but I have heard that AWB might play now.

            WTF should I do????

            1. Baps Hunter
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              What's the AWB rumour? I heard he got injured.

              1. themaindanger
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                On the FFS Team news they said the injury is not as bad. He may be available.

            2. cravencottage
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Fred?!

              1. themaindanger
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                I wanted Ronaldo (I'm captaining) and had to go with a cheap Mid. I know Fred is not a great option, but Man U. have great fixtures and he is playing more advanced.

          8. damiang2233
            • 16 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Thoughts on who to bench? Currently on the below

            Ramsdale
            TAA Dalot Cancelo
            Salah ESM Silva Bowen
            Dennis Antonio Vardy

            Sanchez Rudiger Bissouma (game off) Johnson (Injured)

            So basically should I play Rudiger for someone?

          9. winchester
            • 5 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            hey lads GTG or anything worth a hit? cheers.

            ramsdale
            taa - cancelo - james - livra
            salah(C) - bernardo - jota
            antonio - dennis - hwang

            (foster - gilmour - reguilon - son)

            a) GTG
            b) jota -> bowen -4
            c) son -> mount/bowen? -4
            d) hwang -> watkins -4

          10. LIARS POKER
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            On WC, take Jota out for Mount/Gundogan or just bench and play Dalot? (already have Bernado)

            1. denial
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              4 years, 2 months ago

              If I was on WC I'd go for mount

          11. baines is god
            • 14 Years
            4 years, 2 months ago

            Ramsdale, Manquillo TAA Cancelo Salah C jota Raphina CHO Bernardo Jesus Antonio and no playing subs. 2.3 itb, should I do Duffy or Williams to James and bench CHO?

          12. TopBinFc
              4 years, 2 months ago

              Is Cancelo worth a -4 on 4 YC's, knowing my luck I'll buy him and he'll get booked and miss midweek

              1. putana
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                no

                1. TopBinFc
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Any other suggestions, need to buy someone as only have 9 players fit

              2. putana
                • 7 Years
                4 years, 2 months ago

                mount or bowen? money no issue

                1. TopBinFc
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Mount all day

                  • bombonera
                    • 4 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Same dilemma - thinking Bowen to play it safe for starts

                  • Miguel Sanchez
                    • 9 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Bowen - Chelsea have 7 players for 3 attacking mid places

                  • cravencottage
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    4 years, 2 months ago

                    Bowen- better fixtures and will always start

                2. Nightf0x
                  • 10 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Rams
                  Taa can rudi regi (lampty)
                  Jota esr son salah bsilva
                  Denis (watkins locadia)

                  Which. ?.

                  A) regi son -4 to dalot rash/mount/bowen (gw17 jota-bowen gw18 locadia-antonio)
                  B) jota son locadia -8 to ronaldo bowen 4.5 mid.
                  C) jota son regi -8 to rash/mount bowen dalot

                3. HD7
                  • 8 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  On -4:
                  A) Take another hit
                  Cornet to Bowen/Gallagher

                  B) Play Livra and hope Cornet is ok for Watford midweek

                  Ramsdale
                  Trent Rudi Cancelo James
                  Saka Salah Bernardo Cornet*
                  Antonio Ronaldo

                  Steele Livra Sissoko Scarlett

                4. Miguel Sanchez
                  • 9 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Risk Jota with Sissoko (bre) first sub or sell Sissoko for Bowen for a hit?

                  A) Sissoko (bre)
                  B) Bowen (bur) -4

                5. chrislt4
                  • 6 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Pick one…

                  A) Gundo & De Gea

                  B) Mount & Ramsdale

                6. Tinfoil Deathstar
                  • 5 Years
                  4 years, 2 months ago

                  Is Raphinha to Bowen worth a -4 this week? Raphinha will likely come in for Jota otherwise.

                  Rest of team is fine bar Sanchez as GK but I'm not taking a hit to fix that.