The FPL transfers I am considering for Gameweek 23 and beyond

So, as I write this, we’re eight games into Double Gameweek 22 and I sit 42,274th overall in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

The festive period was a bit of a slog as I dropped outside of the top 100k, but after picking up 77 points so far this week, it at least feels like we’re moving in the right direction again.

Now, as focus turns to Gameweek 23, I’m going to note down some initial thoughts on transfers.

For context, here’s how I’m currently set-up, with one free transfer and £4.3m in the bank.

ANTONIO > WATKINS

This is a transfer I am considering, but only if Aston Villa are handed two fixtures in Gameweek 23 (more on that later).

If that does come to fruition, I like Ollie Watkins (£7.7m), who I think will lead the line in Villa’s 4-3-2-1 formation, with two playmakers – Emiliano Buendia (£6.2m) and Philippe Coutinho (£7.0m) – in behind.

Danny Ings (£7.7m) is without doubt a top-quality player but in this current system, Villa always look far more effective with Watkins as the only striker, with his ability to press from the front a key part of his game.

Under Gerrard, Watkins has three goals and an assist across his eight appearances, averaging 1.90 shots per 90 minutes.

However, I’d expect those numbers to increase if playing through the middle, whilst it’s also worth noting the opposition faced during that run, which has included games against some of the leagues best defences, including Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Brighton and Hove Albion.

Ollie Watkins’ xG shot map under Steven Gerrard, with all 16 goal attempts arriving in the box

I should note, losing Michail Antonio (£7.7m) isn’t a priority, but he does look tired right now, something David Moyes touched on after Sunday’s loss to Leeds United, whilst he could also feature for Jamaica, if selected, in the coming weeks.

“We noticed that as well (that Antonio looked tired). But it is difficult when you have to play. He is one of our key goalscorers. We were chasing the game from 15 minutes in and it was really difficult to change him. He was out on his legs after the game but again what can we do?” – David Moyes on Michail Antonio

RUDIGER > ROBERTSON/DIGNE

Antonio Rudiger (£6.2m) probably needs to be moved on, with Chelsea’s home tie against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday followed by successive blanks.

In terms of replacements, Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) is averaging over 7.5 points per match over his last seven starts, producing a goal, five assists and 10 bonus points. Despite that, he is still owned by just 3.0% of FPL managers, and once everyone is back from Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) duty, a Liverpool triple-up of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.7m), plus Robertson, is appealing.

That would mean losing Diogo Jota (£8.4m), but I’m not against that right now, as it opens up an additional midfield spot, which I’ll touch on later.

Lucas Digne (£5.0m) is another option I’m keen on, given Aston Villa’s schedule. The Frenchman was very advanced up the left-flank against Manchester United on Saturday, registering 25 final-third touches (the second-most of Villa players), two shots in the box and two chances created. He was also involved at set-piece situations, which gives him a slight edge over Matty Cash (£5.1m) on the opposite flank, in my opinion.

Aston Villa sit top of the FFS Season Ticker for ease of fixture between Gameweeks 23 and 28

FERNANDES > SALAH

This week’s transfer in, Bruno Fernandes (£11.7m), is simply a placeholder for Salah, who will return as soon as he is available.

Egypt look likely to qualify for the knockout stages following their 1-0 win over Guinea-Bissau, though it’s far from certain ahead of their final group match against Sudan on Wednesday.

However, if it’s Gameweek 23, 24 or 25 when back, I’ll be ready to move.

PHIL FODEN / SON HEUNG-MIN

Both Phil Foden (£8.0m) and Son Heung-min (£10.7m) have done well for me this season, and finding a route back to both players is something I’ve explored.

The Manchester City man looks a particularly good option this week, given his next three fixtures, which includes games against Southampton (a), Brentford (h) and Norwich City (a).

Also, if Salah isn’t ready for Gameweek 24, Foden is also a potential captain, given how many goals Brentford have shipped on the road in recent times.

However, to do this I’d need to lose Jota, which in turn would free up a midfield spot, and is why I’m considering shifting to a Alexander-Arnold, Robertson and Salah Liverpool triple-up soon.

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 23/24?

The story linked here, via the Telegraph, suggests the Premier League are keen for the near two-week ‘winter break’ to remain in place, despite a backlog of postponed fixtures that still need to be rearranged.

However, fixtures like Leeds United v Aston Villa and Burnley v Watford could still slot in alongside the FA Cup fourth round ties, which is worth keeping in mind when planning. Having one or two targets in mind from those teams mentioned is probably a good idea, then, just in case we need to react quickly prior to deadline.

For example, my current Watchlist includes players like Lucas Digne, Matthew Lowton (£4.4m), Philippe Coutinho (£7.0m), Jacob Ramsey (£4.6m) and Ollie Watkins, perhaps even Jay Rodriguez (£5.2m), given that Burnley have up to five games in hand on some teams.

So, these are the moves I’m mulling over for now, which I’ll decide on closer to deadline.

Thanks for reading, and best of luck in Tuesday and Wednesday’s games!