What a last five Gameweeks we’ve had: a big double, a big blank, two big doubles and another big blank. Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers have had huge swings, ranging anything from 400 to 520 points over this period, and have been using up to four chips in the process.
The international break comes as a welcome breather for many, but it also gives a chance to ponder over the various approaches to tackle the proverbial ‘home stretch’.
For my debut article for Fantasy Football Scout, I will talk about my favourite FPL topic: planning and strategising the optimal use of chips. I’ve always been a ‘fixtures’ man, and in a game where we can’t ultimately control the outcome, I feel the one aspect that gives good managers an edge is meticulous planning. My pod partner, Sonaldo, and I did an extensive video on this topic on Burning Questions on the FFScout YouTube channel earlier this week. It goes into more detail on a lot of the below, and I would encourage you to check that out as well.
Chip usage: the state of play
We can see on the graphic from LiveFPL above that by the end of Gameweek 30, 84% of the top 10,000 FPL managers had used their Wildcard, which is unusually high for this time of the season. But this isn’t a typical season. Moreover, what’s interesting is that only 54% of these bosses have used their Bench Boost chip. This suggests there are quite a few managers with just a solo Bench Boost left, which is again unusual. Finally, expectedly, there are over 70% of managers in the top 10k with the second Free Hit chip left.
This means there are four main categories of managers with regards to remaining chips:
- Wildcard, Bench Boost, Free Hit
- Free Hit
- Only Bench Boost
- Other (none, Triple Captain, two Free Hits)
Blank/Double Gameweeks: What lies ahead
After the FA Cup quarter-finals in Gameweek 30, we have a clear picture up to Blank/Double Gameweek 33. Given that there are only a few free midweeks left after this, there has been some educated guesswork done by some great FPL minds in the community for the rest of the season. The excellent Legomane has visualised this conjecture in the table below:
Without going into too much detail, the expectations are that:
- Gameweek 34/35 will include some smaller doubles, the likeliest of which is Aston Villa v Burnley. Should Chelsea lose the UEFA Champions League quarter-final tie v Real Madrid, then Leeds v Chelsea could also fit here.
- Gameweek 36 will be the big double, with up to 10 teams playing twice. These sides could include Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace, Everton, Leicester City, Aston Villa and West Ham United.
- Gameweek 37 will be a decent-sized double as well, with Everton, Leicester, Norwich City, Watford and Wolverhampton Wanderers potentially having two fixtures each. Chelsea would double here if they win the aforementioned Champions League tie against Real Madrid. However, there is a risk that the two games happen over three days (Tuesday and Thursday) if they also reach the final of the FA Cup. There is a small chance the Manchester City double falls in Gameweek 37 instead of Gameweek 36, but this is a fairly low probability.
- Finally, the current thinking is that there will be no other blanks after Gameweek 33 as other postponements for the FA Cup final that clash with Gameweek 37 could simply move to the midweek afterwards. However, West Ham United could feasibly blank in Gameweek 37 if they reach the Europa League final and Manchester City qualify for the FA Cup Final.
Windows for the various chips
Wildcard
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