Leicester hit over 60 goals for the third season in a row under Brendan Rodgers, despite the UEFA Europa League/Conference League sideshow and myriad injury issues.
The underlying stats aren’t as impressive, with the Foxes ranked 15th for both goal attempts and shots in the box.
While the overall shot count was way down on those of many other teams, Leicester did carve out quality opportunities with the attacks they had.
Rodgers’ troops were fourth in the Premier League for big chances per shot (16.78%).
Despite the respectable rate of big chances, Leicester still had to spectacularly ‘overachieve’ on the expected goals (xG, above) front to hit the 60-goal mark.
No club came close to matching their whopping xG delta of +9.15.
But if you think that’s unsustainable, the gap between xG and actual goals was even more extreme (+11.86) in 2020/21.
Jamie Vardy (£9.5m) and James Maddison (£8.0m) were a massive part of last season’s overachievement: one’s a clinical finisher from close range, the other possesses a dead eye from distance.
Vardy and Maddison’s combined xG deltas were +7.92, accounting for a big chunk of the overall Foxes figure.
LAST SEASON: DEFENCE
Total
Rank v other Premier League clubs*
Goals conceded
59
14th
Clean sheets
7
17th
Shots conceded
565
17th
Shots in the box conceded
392
=18th
Shots on target conceded
192
18th
Big chances conceded
88
16th
Expected goals conceded (xGC)
70.77
17th
Far less impressive were Leicester’s defensive numbers, which are more relegation candidate material than top-eight challenger.
Ranked in the bottom four for the concession of shots, efforts on target, attempts in the box and expected goals (xGC), they were also 17th for clean sheets with a miserable seven.
It could even have been worse: Opta’s xGC data estimated that the Foxes should have shipped over 70 goals, rather than the 59 that actually flew in.
Set plays were a real Achilles heel, as no club allowed more chances from free-kicks and corners (176) or had a worse xGC from dead-ball situations (20.0).
Leicester had rotten luck with injuries last season, with not one of what could feasibly be described as their first-choice back four – Jonny Evans, Ricardo Pereira, James Justin and Wesley Fofana (all £4.5m) – starting more than 16 league games.
Midfield shield Wilfried Ndidi (£5.0m) didn’t fare much better, only making the starting XI on 18 occasions.
Not once was Rodgers able to name those five players in the same team in 2021/22.
The Castagne-Fofana-Evans-Justin back four was in place on just three occasions last season, all of them without Ndidi, with Leicester conceding exactly one goal in each fixture.
OPENING FIXTURES
The opening fixtures aren’t great, with four ‘big six’ sides to come in the first eight Gameweeks.
That sees the Foxes rank a lowly 17th on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty.
A Brentford side missing arguably both their first-choice centre-halves and a Southampton outfit that the Foxes scored six goals against last season could be favourable opponents in Gameweeks 1 and 3, however.
The time to pounce would seem to be Gameweeks 9-16, the start of which is immediately after the September international break.
Rodgers’ side rise to second in our Season Ticker for that string of games, with two newly promoted sides and Leeds, Wolves and Everton among the opponents to come.
PREDICTED GAMEWEEK 1 LINE-UP
Pereira’s injury should make the back four easy to predict, if it is indeed a back four: Justin could alternatively play as a third centre-half, with Luke Thomas (£4.5m) or Marc Albrighton (£5.0m) fielded at wing-back.
Youri Tielemans (£6.5m) was traditionally a secure starter for the Foxes but with the Belgian supposedly wanting to depart the club, he’s not been all that prominent in the pre-season line-ups.
OK, now I really do need some help because I've got myself all confused. I was REALLY HAPPY with my team of:
Ramsdale Robertson Cancelo Tripper Zinchenko Salah Sancho Neto Diaz Jesus Kane
However, Sancho's sickness, Newcastles fixtures and another comment about piling in on the opening six fixtures as heavily as possible have made me think another way. The best opening 8 fixures fall to City, Brighton, Liverpool in defence and Brighton, Cit, Brentford, Liverpool in attack. That's making me strongly think about this team:
Ederson TAA Cancelo Robertson Dunk Salah KdB Trossard Bailey Jesus Toney
I did think that but Dunk has always performed ahead of his team for defence and goals. Trossard is 5 goals in pre-season, so a risk definitely, but who knows?
Those were two harsh results last season. Snatch and grab win at the King Power (Leeds has 19 attempts and didn't score!) and again Leeds dominated at Elland Road but were wasteful in final third.
I think Trippier is the better longer term pick. But Perisic will be a bandwagon and TV generator if he goes on a run. Squad looks about as solid as they come though
Excl: Chelsea are considering many options for right-back position, to be discussed after Cucurella. Kyle Walker-Peters, one of the options alongside Denzel Dumfries
Easy call the way I see it! Robbo over James by a mile (particualrly given Chelsea's uncertainty), I like Trippier over Perisic because of rotations risks/minutes, and I think Bailey is a better option than Neto.
I am not really sure about any of them to be honest. Don't fancy rashford, and I'd love to have Perisic, but it's a wait and see for me considering rotation.
A B X Y were the SNES or Xbox controller buttons were they not I'd go with Bailey ahead of Neto personally, more based on the team they play for rather than the player I think Wolves could be in trouble this season unless Sa can get them out of it.
