It’s time to look at some more differentials as Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) comes swiftly into view.
We’re only concentrating on FPL picks with an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.
This time, we’ve selected low-owned players at Aston Villa, Brentford and Everton who we think could have an impact on not just the upcoming Gameweek but in the medium term, too.
PAU TORRES
- FPL ownership: 4.4%
- Price: £4.6m
After successive benchings, Matty Cash (£4.9m) is the most-sold defender of Gameweek 16 so far.
There aren’t too many stand-out candidates to replace him, with Pedro Porro (£5.3m) about the best of them.
Already a fixture of 13.8% of FPL squads, Porro doesn’t come close to meeting the criteria for Spot the Differential.
There is someone a lot closer to home who does, though: Pau Torres (£4.6m).
It seems sub-optimal to nominate a defender who takes on the league leaders in Gameweek 16 but looking longer term, there’s logic behind getting in a nailed Villa defender to replace the untrustworthy Cash.
A Brentford side set to be missing the hugely influential Bryan Mbeumo (£7.1m) comes next, with home fixtures against newly promoted clubs on either side of Christmas.
It’s even questionable whether Manchester United should be ‘red’ on the ticker, having failed to gain a single point from anyone in the breakaway top nine this season.
Villa’s home form has been first class for a long time now, giving hope that Pau’s upcoming run can get off to a flyer even against Arsenal. Champions Manchester City were beaten to nil on Wednesday, having had a record-low two shots.
And the Spain international does carry a bit of a threat at the other end of the pitch.
Cash, ironically, is the only FPL defender who has had more ‘big chances’ than Pau (four) this season. Two of Pau’s have ended up in the opposition net.
ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE
- FPL ownership: 0.8%
- Price: £5.5m
In light of the news about Mbeumo, we cobbled together a list of potential replacements in FPL.
One name we held back from that piece to use here was Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.5m) – who promptly went and scored against Newcastle United in a Thursday night kick-off.
That was Doucoure’s fifth league goal of the campaign. Looking back further to the tail-end of 2022/23, it’s now 10 goals and four assists in 25 league appearances. Not bad for an 0.8%-owned budget option.
The Mali international has been reborn under Sean Dyche, chiefly operating in an advanced midfield role behind a lone striker.
“Doucs has been a shining light. Different managers have different views on players; that’s the way it goes. He (Lampard) just had a different view. I wanted him in the side straight away and he’s been delivering ever since I got here.” – Sean Dyche on Abdoulaye Doucoure after his goal against Newcastle on Thursday
The underlying stats are as impressive as the goal count.
He sits fourth among FPL midfielders – behind only Messrs Salah, Saka and Bowen – for ‘big chances’ in 2023/24 (ten).
Bowen is the only midfielder who has had more shots in the six-yard box than Doucoure (six), meanwhile.
Above: The leading midfielders for non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) in 2023/24
The upcoming opponents might also be better than they appear at first glance:
- Chelsea: 17 goals conceded in the last seven matches, no clean sheets
- Burnley: One clean sheet all season – and even that came against 10-man Sheffield United
- Spurs: 13 goals conceded in the last five matches, no clean sheets
- Wolves: Two clean sheets all season – one of which, against Everton, arrived despite the Toffees racking up five big chances
Another boost is that Doucoure appears to have turned his back on representing Mali at the Africa Cup of Nations in order to stay with his club.
NEAL MAUPAY
- FPL ownership: 1.4%
- Price: £4.9m
Neal Maupay (£4.9m) has, a bit like Reece James (£5.4m), accumulated plenty of distrust from the FPL community in recent years.
Missed penalties, a consistently poor shot-to-goal conversion rate and even the odd red card: he’s earned the unwanted ‘troll’ moniker as a result.
But he’s back at his spiritual home in west London, feeling loved after a disastrous year out in the cold at Everton.
“It means a lot. I love the fans, I love my team-mates and I love the club – I love everyone here.
“Last season I didn’t play much, I had a very tough time, so I’m happy to be back here in a good environment. I enjoy being here. The people here at this club are amazing, but I knew that already.
“To be part of Brentford’s history in the Premier League is what it’s about for me.” – Neal Maupay
And he’s started to repay the faith placed in him by Thomas Frank, having returned in three of his four Premier League starts since his loan switch from the blue half of Merseyside.
His short-term expected minutes are about to rise, too, with Mbeumo out for “weeks”. Ivan Toney (£7.9m) won’t return till Gameweek 21 at the earliest, just when Yoane Wissa (£5.9m) – and Mbeumo, if he’s fit – depart for AFCON.
It’s the price that’s the main appeal, with Maupay cheap enough to be parked on the bench most weeks – including in Gameweek 18, when Brentford blank.
The Bees as a team impressively have the fifth-best xG total this season.
And they now have a £4.9m FPL forward leading the line for a little while, starting at bottom-of-the-table Sheffield United.
Above: The leading forwards for minutes per xG in 2023/24
