With the conclusion of the FA Cup fifth round, Blank Gameweek 29 was confirmed with just four fixtures going ahead. These are:
- Burnley v Brentford
- Fulham v Spurs
- Luton v Nottingham Forest
- West Ham v Aston Villa
In this guide, we’ll take it game-by-game and review in detail the stats for all eight teams and their players. Whether you’re Free Hitting or using free transfers, this guide will look to unearth the likeliest source of defensive and attacking returns.
All data at the time of writing goes up to Gameweek 27.
Burnley v Brentford
Burnley have conceded the second-most number of goals at home this season, with 34. Their xG conceded delta of +12.30 is by far the worst in the league, suggesting that statistically their defence isn’t as bad as it seems and they have conceded 12 more goals than they should have. That said, with just one clean sheet at Turf Moor all season, it would take a brave FPL manager to draft in one of their defenders, and if you already own a budget enabler like Charlie Taylor, don’t expect too much from him in the blank.
Perhaps the more interesting team data when it comes to Burnley has to do with their blunt attack. A figure of 92.4 minutes per xG at home is the worst in the league and their goal conversion rate of 7.4% is superior only to Everton. Indeed, with just 13 goals scored at home in 14 games, maybe a double or a triple up in the Brentford backline is the way to go in Gameweek 29.
When we take a look at Brentford’s team defence data in away games, the case to back their defence in this game is considerably reinforced. They rank third best for xG conceded (19.08) and joint-third best for big chances conceded (29). Burnley’s weak attack at home and Brentford’s strong defence away look like a tantalising match for a clean sheet … although Brentford’s recent injuries at the back have to be taken into account.
With such a puny goal threat, it doesn’t seem wise to spend too much time looking at Burnley midfielders and forwards. Burnley’s budget striker David Datro Fofana does have an FPL goal involvement of 75%, so if Burnley do manage to score, he is likely to be involved, but with a minutes per shot of 53.4, it is asking a lot for him to score with just under two shots a game on average.
Looking at Brentford players, Ivan Toney’s numbers suggest he’s a solid pick: nine big chances and four goals in the eight games since his return from suspension. Taking a shot every 30 minutes, and having a goal conversion rate of 16.7%, indicate a player that can be backed with relative confidence, if not necessarily feared by non-owners.
Since his Brentford debut in gameweek 23, Sergio Reguilon has posted some encouraging numbers for a defender. He has an FPL goal involvement of 43% to complement any possible clean sheets. Shooting every 69.7 minutes is good for a defender but creating a chance every 81 minutes is a little on the lean side when it comes to assist potential. Trent Alexander-Arnold by comparison creates a chance every 31 minutes. So, to reiterate, these are encouraging numbers for the Brentford wing-back, but they don’t exactly scream, “Drop everything and buy me now.”
Yoane Wissa and Neal Maupay tussling for one striker spot makes them a risky pick, which is a shame because Maupay beats Toney for minutes per xGI (153 versus 185 even without penalties) and he has an FPL goal involvement of 45% when on the pitch, while Wissa is joint-top for big chances with 13. Other Brentford players with over 25 starts to their name, such as Vitaly Janelt and Christian Norgaard, also look like no-goes. The latter creates less than one chance per game while the former takes less than one shot per game on average. The law of big numbers is not on their side to return in a single Gameweek.
Fulham v Spurs
