The past two seasons have highlighted just how hard it is for promoted teams to survive in the Premier League.
After Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United were relegated in 2023/24, having only just come up, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton all went straight back down 12 months later.
However, this season feels different, as Sunderland, Leeds United, and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Burnley have started well.
But how do their performances measure up against promoted teams from previous years?
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OVERALL RECORD
| Position | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | Sunderland | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| 15th | Leeds | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 8 |
| 18th | Burnley | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
Sunderland, Leeds and Burnley have a combined 23 points in Gameweeks 1-7.
At the same stage of 2024/25, Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton had taken just 11 points from their opening seven matches.
Two of the trio, Ipswich and Southampton, were yet to win.
The previous season, the promoted teams fared even worse, as Luton, Burnley and Sheff Utd could only muster nine points.
So, while the sample size is small, the early signs are good.
PROMOTED SIDES’ POINTS AFTER SEVEN MATCHES
| Season | Promoted team (points) | Points (combined) |
|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | Newcastle (10), Huddersfield (9), Brighton (7) | 26 |
| 2025/26 | Sunderland (11), Leeds (8), Burnley (4) | 23 |
| 2022/23 | Fulham (11), Bournemouth (7), Nott’m Forest (4) | 22 |
| 2021/22 | Brentford (12), Watford (7), Norwich (1) | 20 |
| 2016/17 | Burnley (7), Hull (7), Middlesbrough (6) | 20 |
| 2018/19 | Wolves (12), Fulham (5), Cardiff (2) | 19 |
| 2019/20 | Sheff Utd (8), Norwich (6), Aston Villa (5) | 19 |
| 2020/21 | Leeds (10), Fulham (4), West Brom (3) | 17 |
| 2024/25 | Leicester (6), Ipswich (4), Southampton (1) | 11 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley (4), Luton (4), Sheff Utd (1) | 9 |
*Premier League since 2016/17 only
In fact, since the 2016/17 season, promoted teams have achieved a better start only once, when Newcastle United, Huddersfield Town and Brighton and Hove Albion collectively earned 26 points in their first seven matches.
Notably, all three of those teams successfully avoided the drop that season.
BEST STARTS BY A PROMOTED SIDE SINCE 2016/17
| Season | Team | Points (after seven matches) | Final PL position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | Brentford | 12 | 13th |
| 2018/19 | Wolves | 12 | 7th |
| 2022/23 | Fulham | 11 | 10th |
| 2025/26 | Sunderland | 11 | ? |
| 2020/21 | Leeds | 10 | 9th |
| 2017/18 | Newcastle | 10 | 10th |
Since 2016/17, only two promoted teams – Brentford (2021/22) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (2018/19) – have made a better start to a Premier League season than Sunderland.
Additionally, every promoted team that has started a season with as many points as the Black Cats have successfully survived, too.
At this point, it is important to note that Regis Le Bris’ side has had the second-easiest start according to our Fixture Ticker.
Nonetheless, the initial results are promising:
Graphic from WhoScored
DEFENSIVE SOLIDITY OFFERS HOPE
2025/26 AFTER SEVEN MATCHES
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals conceded | xGC | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 7 | 6.37 | 6 | 8.83 | 3 |
| Leeds | 7 | 7.77 | 11 | 8.13 | 2 |
| Burnley | 7 | 4.94 | 15 | 13.66 | 1 |
2024/25 AFTER SEVEN MATCHES
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals conceded | xGC | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 9 | 5.10 | 12 | 14.81 | 1 |
| Ipswich | 6 | 5.06 | 14 | 15.70 | 1 |
| Southampton | 4 | 8.34 | 15 | 14.05 | 0 |
2023/24 AFTER SEVEN MATCHES
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals conceded | xGC | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 6 | 5.82 | 16 | 13.25 | 0 |
| Luton | 6 | 8.88 | 14 | 12.88 | 0 |
| Sheff Utd | 5 | 5.54 | 19 | 17.66 | 0 |
One common weakness among newly promoted teams in recent seasons has been a lack of defensive solidity.
However, this season, Sunderland and Leeds look far more robust, which is giving them a platform to secure crucial points.
Together, they have conceded only 17 goals in 14 matches, and considering that five of those were in Leeds’ defeat to Arsenal in Gameweek 2, it suggests they have the capacity to steer clear of relegation.
Indeed, Regis Le Bris and Daniel Farke have both emphasised the importance of clean sheets in recent weeks.
“We can’t expect anything if we don’t defend properly. So, it was obvious coming here we had to defend really well, mid-block, low-block even a bit higher in the first half, we did well, not perfectly but enough to keep a clean sheet.” – Regis Le Bris
“We are a newly promoted [side] and it is obviously normal that we won’t take the league by storm. First step is to be rock solid at the back and be difficult to beat, and that’s what we are.” – Daniel Farke
In contrast, Burnley have been much more open, ranking 20th for expected goals conceded (xGC) and shipping 15 actual goals, a trend reminiscent of the struggles seen in the past two campaigns.
Nonetheless, it is important to keep in mind that the Clarets have encountered a very difficult schedule (tot/SUN/mun/LIV/NFO/mci/avl), which was, in fact, the second toughest of any team according to our Fixture Ticker.
Returning to Sunderland, who topped the ticker in Gameweeks 1-6, they have more difficult challenges ahead. The December schedule, for example, includes away games against Liverpool and Manchester City, followed by a derby match against Newcastle United.
The situation is further complicated by the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), during which Le Bris could be without as many as seven first-team players.
Still, Sunderland’s performances in the early part of the season certainly suggest that they can break the trend of going straight back down.
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