Pro Pundits - Tom Hadley
19 November 2025 90 comments
Tom Hadley Tom Hadley
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Tom Hadley – a one-time world number one in FPL – is the newest addition to our ever-growing team of contributors.

He’ll be providing data-driven articles regularly this season, chiefly around defensive contribution points (DefCon).

In this piece, he picks out the leading defenders and top opponents for DefCon points – and asks if we’re witnessing a drop-off.


I’m back with another DefCon update! It’s time to take all bias aside, exploring where the current value lies in defence and whether we should still put all our eggs in the “DefCon basket”. 

Best Opponents to Face for DefCon Points

DefCon points

It’s been relatively unchanged for a good few weeks now, bar a position here or there. These nine teams (with Liverpool featuring twice) represent a fairly good guideline to the predictability of DefCon points – particularly for centre-backs. 

Roughly 50% of centre-halves are likely to hit the DefCon threshold against these sides. And given more or less every team has its specialist DefCon centre-back, there’s an even greater chance that it will be those players that hit the threshold against the above teams. 

My rule of thumb is to play my best DefCon-amassing assets in practically every game, but this chart can help sway any 50/50 benching dilemmas towards the player who has a defensive-contribution-friendly fixture.

It’s also quite interesting that it’s not necessarily the top sides that offer up DefCon points. Arsenal and Liverpool are there, of course, but you have the likes of Brentford and Crystal Palace, two long-throw specialists, boasting huge numbers. 

Top Defenders for DefCon Points

 

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The rest of this article below is completely free to read but requires a Fantasy Football Scout user account for access – you can get yours at no cost here

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  1. geo4
    • 8 Years
    16 days, 1 hour ago

    I have 1FT
    Was going to do Ndiaye > Mbeumo, but now have Gabriel to deal with
    Pick one
    A) Mbeumo (EVE) + Rodon (AVL) - (potentially lose value on Gabriel as transfer out in 14 - Free hit 13)
    B) Ndiaye (mutd) + Senesi (WHU) - (Gabriel > Senesi this week)

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      16 days, 1 hour ago

      B

  2. Positive vibes
    • 9 Years
    16 days, 1 hour ago

    Hi, does double Palace defense too much?

    1. BECKS TO THE FUTURE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      16 days, 43 mins ago

      With Geuhi injury; yes, I think.

      But they're the only other team than Arsenal I'd double up on for next five or so weeks (City also come into contention from next week).

      I would probably go for Henderson + Defender. Rather than double defender.

  3. FPL Sanky
    • 2 Years
    16 days, 54 mins ago

    Who is a priority transfer out? Got 1FT only...can play KDH and Gudmundson if required

    1) Gabriel
    2) Gyokeres
    3) Semenyo

    1. Fuddled FC
      • 13 Years
      16 days, 51 mins ago

      probably 1)

  4. Fuddled FC
    • 13 Years
    16 days, 50 mins ago

    I can't afford VVD or Konate if i want to do Enzo>Mbeumo

    I haven't seen people considering Bradley.

    Any reason?

    1. Positive vibes
      • 9 Years
      16 days, 37 mins ago

      Is he nailed?

  5. Questions for Zophar's GW12 Q&A article
    zøphar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    16 days, 43 mins ago

    Taking questions for my Gameweek 12 Q&A, send them in!

    Answers will be posted in a separate article

    1. FPL Sanky
      • 2 Years
      16 days, 35 mins ago

      Who is a priority transfer out if you have only 1FT?
      1) Gabriel
      2) Semenyo
      3) Gyokeres

      1. Gizzachance
        • 11 Years
        16 days, 27 mins ago

        A if reports suggest 1-2 months out

        1. Mr. Eko
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          15 days, 19 hours ago

          You are not Zophar …

      2. zøphar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        15 days, 8 hours ago

        Gabriel, though I can't see your bench to know who you got as sub. Semenyo should play

    2. FPL Sanky
      • 2 Years
      16 days, 31 mins ago

      Is Gabriel to Saliba a no brainer? We have seen Saliba's set piece threat when Gabriel is out..plus Saliba is only 11% owned so good differential to have?

      1. TheFridge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        15 days, 22 hours ago

        I've got Raya and Timber, and have been thinking about O'Reilly in for Gabriel. The logic is that Liverpool's defense has been leakier than ManCity, and the latter have a good upcoming run (just like Liverpool). That said, I'm likely to FH13, which makes this tricky. . .

      2. zøphar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        15 days, 8 hours ago

        will be discussing gabriel replacements in detail in the article!

    3. z13
        16 days, 25 mins ago

        How important do you think is home/away form when looking at a team's form decline? For example, should we trust Newcastle to do well at home since their bad run has all been away, and vice versa with Spurs? Or is a drop in form usually seperate to home/away form?

      • Brosstan
        • 11 Years
        16 days, 21 mins ago

        Why is Josh Cullen being ignored by everyone? Any real statistical reason behind it or just "he plays for Burnley"?

        1. Mother Farke
          • 1 Year
          16 days, 9 mins ago

          Team Jacob!

        2. zøphar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 16 Years
          15 days, 8 hours ago

          If he was named Cullinho he'd be 30% owned

      • Magic Zico
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        16 days, 21 mins ago

        Woltemade, what to do? If FH13, it seems 3 home NEW GWs in the next 4 albeit the first is MCI (MCI FH13 TOT BUR) ... just keeping?

        1. I have no Wirtz
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Just keeping.

            If any of Mateta/Thiago/Welbeck actually bring hauls in Gw12 and for your FH13, then in gw14 you know who to transfer in replacing Woltemade.

            Even if Newcastle don’t win this week, Wolte just feels like the guy who delivers that 1 goal in a 1-1 draw or 1-3 loss.

          • I have no Wirtz
              15 days, 21 hours ago

              Apologies, had not noticed this was Zophar’s thread. Did not mean to intrude. Let me rephrase as a question, please see below post.

            • zøphar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              15 days, 8 hours ago

              I'm in favour of keeping and moving to Thiago in 16, but waiting to hear on Wissa from Howe

          • FourLokoLeipzig
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Hi Zophar, I found your “free hit” article really insightful last week, but a couple of points you made seemed to slightly contradict each other… hence my following question!..

            Could Sarr match the likes of Mbeumo until AFCON, or is he likely to be negatively impacted by the brutal fixture schedule due to Palace being in Europe?

            1. Rasping Drive
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              15 days, 22 hours ago

              He may be an astute FPL manager but a soothsayer he ain’t.

              1. FourLokoLeipzig
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                15 days, 21 hours ago

                I mean, it’s kind of the point of these exercises to ask more astute FPL managers for their opinion on likely outcomes. Nobody except FPL Virgin is gonna get too upset if they can’t actually predict the future

            2. zøphar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 16 Years
              15 days, 8 hours ago

              I think Sarr could go close to matching Mbeumo yes, but for that Sarr would have to do very well and Mbeumo underperform. its possible

              1. FourLokoLeipzig
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                15 days, 3 hours ago

                Thanks for replying, Think I’ve decided to keep him. Horrible benching headaches until AFCON as a result… but I guess that’s kinda the point! Good luck with your gameweek

          • Haa-lala-land
            • 5 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Is two Man Utd players enough, or is it safer to go with three?

          • Haa-lala-land
            • 5 Years
            15 days, 23 hours ago

            Outside of Donnaruma and Haalaland, who are the best three Man City players?

          • FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 22 hours ago

            Without sitting on the fence, who are the top 3 Gabriel replacements?

          • Atimis
            • 9 Years
            15 days, 22 hours ago

            Would you keep Arsenal double def? Like going from Gabriel to Saliba over VVD?

            Preferred options in mid up to 8.0? Without the ones owned by many like Semenyo, Sarr or Mbeumo.

          • Vasshin
            • 6 Years
            15 days, 22 hours ago

            If you still have Wildcard and Free hit left and currently if you can have template/optimal team with 1ft or -4

            When could be the best time to use the wildcard and free hit before it expires?

          • I have no Wirtz
              15 days, 21 hours ago

              Hi Zophar,

              I have had Woltemade since gameweek 5 and have stuck with him. Encouragingly, looking at the results for his national team, one could argue he single-handedly qualified Germany for the WC.

              However as an FPL asset I was tempted many times to get Thiago or Mateta instead. Does it make sense to give him and his alternatives 2-4 more weeks of results before deciding or is there a case against him already despite his heroics for Germany.

            • Punned It
                15 days, 18 hours ago

                Are there any Newcastle players worth getting for their not too bad run the next few weeks, apart from Woltemade?

              • AAAFootball
                  15 days, 16 hours ago

                  Vvd or senesi?
                  Or saliba

              • Positive vibes
                • 9 Years
                16 days, 38 mins ago

                VVD or Timber?

                1. Gizzachance
                  • 11 Years
                  16 days, 27 mins ago

                  Vvd for fixtures and nailed on, just needs them cs to go with the defcon !

                2. Bavarian
                  • 7 Years
                  15 days, 23 hours ago

                  VVD

                  1. TheFridge
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 3 Years
                    15 days, 22 hours ago

                    Are folks on VVD over a ManCity defender for certain?

                3. FourLokoLeipzig
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  15 days, 21 hours ago

                  Timber by far

              • Gizzachance
                • 11 Years
                16 days, 28 mins ago

                Gab my only ars def

                A to another ars def
                B vvd
                C Munoz

                Cheers

                1. Magic Zico
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  16 days, 25 mins ago

                  Close between them - I was thinking the one who makes it exciting, probably Munoz

                  1. Gizzachance
                    • 11 Years
                    16 days, 23 mins ago

                    Thinking same, have no palace def, have Sarr and mateta
                    Cheers

                2. Bavarian
                  • 7 Years
                  15 days, 23 hours ago

                  B

                3. Under my Cucurella
                  • 10 Years
                  15 days, 22 hours ago

                  B

                4. FourLokoLeipzig
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  15 days, 21 hours ago

                  A

              • Ajax Hamsterdam
                • 11 Years
                16 days, 6 mins ago

                Is gab definitely out ?? Seems everyone is selling might be a bit premature before press conference?

              • tim
                • 16 Years
                15 days, 23 hours ago

                Any feedback on wc draft?

                Roefs Dub
                Senesi Timber Konate Lacroix Esteve
                Rice Saka Xhaka Mbeumo Gravenberch
                Haaland Mateta Thiago

                Cheerio!

                1. Tonyawesome69
                  • 6 Years
                  15 days, 23 hours ago

                  - Probably better 4.0m ish defenders than Esteve
                  - not a fan of DM Gravenberch

              • ShaunGoater123
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                15 days, 22 hours ago

                Wanted to go Salah this week as think Liverpool turn a corner. However with the Gab, Semenyo & Kudus injuries I just can't get there so with that in mind do you prefer Gakpo or Wirtz? I know both come with their risks but as I say, I think they will turn a corner with the upcoming fixtures

                1. Under my Cucurella
                  • 10 Years
                  15 days, 22 hours ago

                  Gakpo minutes are a worry and not sure I've seen anything to want Wirtz. Salah is the best option from the attack probably. If you have no routes to that which look good, I would either go Szobaszlai or no Liverpool attack. I'm currently thinking of just going VVD on WC

                2. Thicksolidtight
                  • 3 Years
                  15 days, 21 hours ago

                  Looking at the points, i'd go gakpo. If you think they're turning a corner and have conviction about that then go for it, that's the spirit of the game!

              • Under my Cucurella
                • 10 Years
                15 days, 22 hours ago

                WC12

                A: Minteh Xhaka
                B: Sarr KDH

                Verbruggen Dub
                Virgil Senesi Richards Mukiele Tuanzabe
                Saka Bruno Mbuemo xxx xxx
                Haaland Mateta Thiago

                +0.3ITB

                FH and BB remaining

              • Atimis
                • 9 Years
                15 days, 22 hours ago

                Gab to VVD and who in place of Eze? Tempted to punt on Neto/Garnacho.
                Or I should have more Arsenal - Rice in mid/Saliba in def?

                Pope
                Gab*/Timber/Munoz
                Bruno/Mbeumo/Eze/Semenyo/Sarr
                Haaland/Mateta

                Dubravka/Rodon/Hartman/Guiu

              • Jet5605
                • 11 Years
                15 days, 22 hours ago

                Who would you start?

                A - Wolt (MCI)
                B - Andersen (SUN)

                1. JBG
                  • 7 Years
                  15 days, 22 hours ago

                  B

              • Golden Oldies
                • 15 Years
                15 days, 22 hours ago

                The watchlist is a joke.. no Sunderland defender on the list even though they represent some of the best value in the game and all carry some attacking threat as well.

                5 of the next 7 fixtures are:
                Fulham
                Bournemouth (H)
                Newcastle (H)
                Brighton
                Leeds (H)

                With Liverpool being in the bottom 3 of the form table currently even a trip to Anfield in between those fixtures doesn't look too daunting.
                Ballard 2 goals 1 assist
                Muikele 1 goal 1 assist
                Alderete 1 goal 1 assist ( back from injury bow?)

                1. Golden Oldies
                  • 15 Years
                  15 days, 22 hours ago

                  Hume: 1 assist but playing in midfield when in possession do more will come

                  Reinildo: no attacking returns yet but was deployed up front towards the end of the arsenal game so expect some returns to come for him also

                2. Punned It
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    Considering Gab > Ballard myself, even if it's a hit.

                3. Karan_G14
                  • 9 Years
                  15 days, 22 hours ago

                  Better option?

                  A) Mbuemo & Anderson
                  B) Cunha & 5.1m def (not Senesi/Palace)

                  1. JBG
                    • 7 Years
                    15 days, 22 hours ago

                    A

                  2. FourLokoLeipzig
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    15 days, 21 hours ago

                    A

                  3. Gizzachance
                    • 11 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    A

                4. JBG
                  • 7 Years
                  15 days, 22 hours ago

                  Have Ballards goals and asaists come on corner kicks?

                  1. Tonyawesome69
                    • 6 Years
                    15 days, 21 hours ago

                    It's not difficult to check the highlights...

                    GW 1 v West Ham - 1G
                    GW 11 v Arsenal - 1G and 1A

                    1. JBG
                      • 7 Years
                      15 days, 21 hours ago

                      Considering I'm out and about, it kind of is.

                  2. Golden Oldies
                    • 15 Years
                    15 days, 19 hours ago

                    No all from open play or free kicks

                5. Thicksolidtight
                  • 3 Years
                  15 days, 21 hours ago

                  Steve McLaren has resigned as Jamaica manager and now available.

                  Should a position as manager of a struggling PL team come up, you'd hope he and his assistant Casper can get in there and sort out the carpeting in the management suites of the lower positioned teams.

                  1. The Bandit
                    • 15 Years
                    15 days, 21 hours ago

                    Was he struggling with the accent?

                6. FPL Virgin
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 9 Years
                  15 days, 21 hours ago

                  This has been the worst international break of all.

                  1. White Pony
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    Your daily moaning has worsened it that’s for sure.

                  2. panda07
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 13 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    Why? There have been some great matches on.

                    1. Magic Zico
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      15 days, 20 hours ago

                      This! At least Scotland and Ireland entertained tbf ...

                7. Jonesfromthere
                  • 13 Years
                  15 days, 20 hours ago

                  Start Richards (wol) or Rodon (AVL)?

                  1. Gizzachance
                    • 11 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    Richards

                  2. FourLokoLeipzig
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    Richards for sure

                  3. Magic Zico
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    Richards

                8. Gizzachance
                  • 11 Years
                  15 days, 20 hours ago

                  Play

                  A Andersen
                  B senesi

                  1. FourLokoLeipzig
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    B

                    1. Gizzachance
                      • 11 Years
                      15 days, 20 hours ago

                      Cheers

                9. Magic Zico
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  15 days, 20 hours ago

                  This is presumably after making Gabriel > Munoz transfer:

                  Raya
                  Munoz Senesi Andersen VVD
                  Bruno Ndiaye Semenyo* Enzo*
                  Haaland Mateta

                  Dubravka Woltemade Gudmundsson Stach

                  Bench Woltemade? If not, who should not start: Ndiaye Semenyo or Enzo?

                  1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
                    • 9 Years
                    15 days, 19 hours ago

                    Andersen?

                    1. Magic Zico
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 7 Years
                      15 days, 19 hours ago

                      Ta

                10. Amartey Partey
                  • 6 Years
                  15 days, 20 hours ago

                  If I've already made 2 transfers this GW and I play my free hit, will I get those 2 transfers back?

                  1. JBG
                    • 7 Years
                    15 days, 20 hours ago

                    Yes

                    1. Amartey Partey
                      • 6 Years
                      15 days, 20 hours ago

                      Thanks!

                11. SomeoneKnows
                  • 9 Years
                  15 days, 19 hours ago

                  Who should I start?

                  A) Porro (ars)
                  B) Gudmundsson (AVL)