Technical Area
21 November 2012 2101 comments
Paul Paul
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Twelve Gameweeks into the season and itโ€™s something of an understatement to suggest Southampton have been far from impressive since their top-flight return. Nigel Adkinsโ€™ side have leaked goals in alarming numbers and sit second bottom of the table, with just nine points to their name thus far, but the past couple of matches have suggested they are finally starting to gel as a side:

Prior to last weekโ€™s home clash with Swansea, the Saints had conceded less than two goals on one occasion this term but have now managed that feat in back-to-back Gameweeks. Granted, a draw and a win in their last two is a little early for optimism but it is, nevertheless, the longest they have gone unbeaten in the league so far.

Cork v Davis

The upturn in performance has coincided with the return from injury of Jack Cork alongside Morgan Schneiderlin in the centre of midfield earlier this month. Sidelined with knee and ankle problems, the former Chelsea man had previously failed to feature in the top-flight this term, with his absence affording Steven Davis the chance to stake a claim as a regular.

After Saturdayโ€™s win at QPR, Adkins was unsparing in his praise of the midfielderโ€™s performance as he watched his side battle their way to victory in the crucial bottom-of-the-table encounter with QPR:

“He (Cork) was yet again outstanding โ€“ him and Morgan Schneiderlin together. I played Jack Cork in every game after I signed him last season. He was called up for the Great Britain team for the Olympics which is a great honour obviously but we didnโ€™t have him for pre-season. He came back and in his first game he got injured, he came back after that and got injured straightaway in his comeback game. Weโ€™ve not had an opportunity to have Jack Cork and Morgan Schneiderlin together until now. They are two young 23-year-olds who I believe have got so much potential and we can get a good partnership going with them.”

Comparing the vital statistics of Cork and Davis in the centre of midfield, the formerโ€™s influence in front of the back-four is already obvious. In terms of involvement and distribution, he has averaged almost 20 touches per game more than Davis (80 to 60.6) and while the pair are virtually identical for passes received, Cork has been far more efficient in quickly moving the ball on, making 57 passes to Davisโ€™ 46.3, with 48 to 39.8 successful passes per game.

TchsPasses RcvdPassesSucc PassesAerial DuelsTacklesIntRecoverClear
Jack Cork8039.5574871.4%75%291.5
Steven Davis60.639.246.339.844.4%63.6%1.55.71.0

When it comes to defensive work, Cork has won 71.4% of aerial duels, far superior to Davisโ€™ 44.4%, and has also bettered his successful tackle ratio, by 75% to 63.6%. He has made more interceptions (2 to 1.5), recoveries (9 to 5.7) and clearances (1.5 to 1.0) per game, highlighting his worth to the side. Clearly, Corkโ€™s deep-lying role is not going to bring home the Fantasy points but it’s the extra combative edge he gives the midfield over Davis, in addition to his understanding with Schneiderlin, that has resultantly boosted the potential of the Saintsโ€™ attacking assets.

Southampton v QPR
Southampton v WBA

With the pair sitting in front of the back-four, Southamptonโ€™s 4-2-3-1 shape is clear in Saturdayโ€™s match (left). Cork (18) and Schneiderlin (4) are content to stay deep, with Jason Puncheon (42) and Adam Lallana (20) pushing high up on the right and left respectively in support of Rickie Lambert (7).

Their previous away game (right) at West Brom looks far less defined. Adkins rolled out a 4-4-2, with Davis (8) more advanced than Schneiderlin (4) in the middle and while Jay Rodriguez (9) was fielded on the right wing, his tendency to drop deep and into central areas offsets the sideโ€™s balance.

Puncheon Comparison

The wingerโ€™s goal and assist at QPR, supplemented by a couple of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bonus points, has already seen his priced rise from 4.4 to 4.5 this week, with plenty prepared to jump aboard the cut-price bandwagon. Granted, Mark Hughesโ€™ side are bottom of the table for a reason and while weโ€™re reining in our expectations, the average position maps over the last two games, compared to his previous appearances, shows just how far forward Jason Puncheon has been in possession.

Puncheon GW1-10
Puncheon GW11-12

The statistics more than back up his displays over the last two. Although Puncheon’s average game time between Gameweeks 1-10 and 11-12 was lower (73.1 minutes per appearances to 95), the figures take a significant jump. Over his last two matches, Puncheon has averaged 40.5 touches in the final third, virtually double his previous 20.7. For Passes received in this crucial area, he is again just shy of registering twice the tally (23.5 to 12), while the same applies to successful passes made in the final third, with 18 to 9.7 highlighting his upturn in distribution closer to goal.

MinsTchs Final 3rdPass Rcvd Final 3rdSucc Pass Final 3rdTch BoxShotsShots BoxMins AttmptChance CrtdDribb
Puncheon GW 11-129540.523.51855.52.517.30.54
Puncheon GW 1-1073.120.7129.731.9139.40.92.6

His more advanced position has helped him to five touches in the box per game โ€“ he had previously averaged three, while his attempts on goal have almost trebled, up from 1.9 to 5.5. Crucially, itโ€™s not all speculative long-range efforts, either; 2.5 attempts have been in the box, up from a previous season average of one. This equates to 17.3 minutes per shot, superior to the Gameweek 1-10 figure of 39.4. Intriguingly, the number of chances created has almost halved, down from 0.9 to 0.5 โ€“now that he is seeing more of the ball closer to goal, Puncheon is looking to find the net rather than tee up a team mate. An upturn in attempted dribbles, from 2.6 to four, highlights a player with flourishing self-belief right now.

Again, itโ€™s no surprise to see the wingerโ€™s display was talked up by his manager post-match:

“Heโ€™s been working hard. Heโ€™s had a good pre-season and again itโ€™s about that consistency…heโ€™s scored a great goal and could have scored three or four more. He worked hard for the team as did everybody โ€“ it was a real good all round performance, but thereโ€™ll talk about Puncheon and maybe one or two others.”

A Look at Lallana

Finally, we take a glance at the displays of Adam Lallana over the past couple of games and compare them to a select batch of premium Fantasy midfielders. While Puncheonโ€™s weekend returns have picked up plenty new investors, Lallana has failed to produce a goal or assist in his last four but his statistics have been superb โ€“ although they haven’t been translated to Fantasy points, his owners will be more than happy to hold.

GW11-12Tchs Final 3rdPass Rcvd Final 3rdSucc Pass Final 3rdChance CrtdTch BoxShots Box
Lallana9558485183
Hazard10453527113
Silva957153793
Cazorla735045371
Valencia936353341

Between Gameweeks 11-12, only one midfielder, Eden Hazard, had more touches (104) in the final third than the Saints man, who managed to equal David Silvaโ€™s 95. While the City playmaker leads the way for passes received in the final third, with 71, Lallanaโ€™s total of 58 is bettered only by one other midfielder, Unitedโ€™s Antonio Valencia, with 63. For successful passes made in the final third, once again Lallana features in the top five; only the aforementioned trio of Valencia (53), Silva (53) and Hazard (52) have marginally made more.

In terms of chances created, Silva and Hazard, with seven apiece, have bettered Lallanaโ€™s five, though this is still superior to Santi Cazorla and Valencia, who both managed to provide three goalscoring opportunities for team mates. When it comes to touches in the box, though, Lallana excels โ€“ his total of 18 over the last two Gameweeks is joint-top with Hatem Ben Arfa and leaves the likes of Hazard (11) and Silva (nine) trailing in his wake. Interestingly, Gaston Ramirez also impresses here โ€“ his 13 is bettered only by Lallana and Ben Arfa.

For total shots over the last couple, Puncheonโ€™s 11 tops the charts, though Lallana and Ramirez sit joint fifth, with five apiece; further illustration of the plentiful potential from Adkinsโ€™ attacking midfield trio. Lallanaโ€™s tally of three efforts from inside the box again fare well when compared to our other featured players, equalling both Hazard and Silva.

With three home matches in the next four Gameweeks (NEW, NOR, liv, REA) Adkinsโ€™ side could well be starting to find their stride at just the right time in their attempt to climb out the drop zone. As the stats suggest, there is plenty attacking potential on offer right now as Fantasy managers look to freshen up their five-man midfields and if Southampton continue along the same vein, there may be plenty reason for St Maryโ€™s optimism just on the horizon.

*The Technical Area is put together using the statistics and maps available in our members area. For access to such data and tools on every player, team and match of the 2012/13 season, and for exclusive members articles like this, click here for details.

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  1. elkunaguero
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    ROTATION ALERT:

    Is anyone worried about Rafael. He played last night and looked pretty tired. Also, with 3 EPL games between now and 1st December, there should be some big rotation risk. For him and for others...

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    1. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      He will be rested for the WHM game. I am pretty sure

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  2. Kostja
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    In case I get a clue which one of them will start than my punt of the week will be Michu to Ashley Young or Nani. Any thoughts on which one will start?

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    1. Bullet Tooth Bony
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Young played midweek didn't he?

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      1. Kostja
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Off the bench so should not be too tired.

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    2. emperikal
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Hard to say. Young has been less than impressive since coming back and Nani is coming off a hamstring injury and hasn't started in the EPL in ages. I guess you can't stretch to Valencia?

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      1. Kostja
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        I can I just find him so boring. Im just gonna keep Michu if I cant find out which of them will start

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        1. emperikal
          • 15 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          Fair enough I cans see what you mean. Minimal goal threat but I think he's still a better option than the other two at the moment if you wanted United MF cover.

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          1. Kostja
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            Well if you look at how young and nani have done historically. Than both much better than Valencia if playing. More goals and only a bit less assists and Valencia clearly overperformed last season on that front. The problem is playing time. But if Nani is confirmed out than Young will probably play and come into my team, I can see a United backlash taking QPR to pieces.

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    3. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      What you doing with Jelavic and Baines after this week?

      I might go to Suarez+Sagna

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      1. Kostja
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        I think I am keeping for 2 weeks as I think Arsenal at home is better than Tott away. But I am probably getting Suarez too, but there is also a chance I might go for Aguero. More likely scenaro is that I will do Suarez to Aguero at some point. Im still not decided on what to do with Baines. But if I will get rid it will be for Nasta, Enrique/Wisdom, Sagna or a Norwich defender depending how much cash I need.

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        1. Kostja
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          and rotations of course

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    4. thetinkerman
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      The fact we can't really say who will start suggests there's too much uncertainty around both in order to make them a viable target.

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      1. Kostja
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        I got the same story on Walcott 2 weeks ago, with the differentals that they are it is worth the risk IMO. But of course I will look for some word which of them will play this week at least.

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  3. Bullet Tooth Bony
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Good day gents. My bench had a combined score of 21 points too weeks in a row. Last week it was 16 points. This week I'm hoping to get it right with some of your help:

    Begovic
    Cueller - Shawcross - Rafael
    Mata - Silva - Nolan - Pienaar
    RVP (C) - Ba (VC) - Berba

    Jaask - Ben Arfa - Demel - Gorkss

    I'm playing Pienaar over Ben Arfa as it's his last chance to impress before I trade him to Sterling and bring in Giroud for Berba.

    So, who would you play out of that lot?

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    1. emperikal
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Looks good. Maybe start Ben Arfa over Nolan? Nolan has only scored one goal away from home and if Newcastle reverts to 4-3-3 it could be of benefit to HBA. Not to mention they're playing a leaky Southampton team.

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      1. Bullet Tooth Bony
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Gotcha, hopefully Nolan doesn't outshine HBA.

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    2. Sidd5
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Its a strong front 8 you got, I would have play barfa in place of pienaar.

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      1. Bullet Tooth Bony
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        I'm giving Pienaar one last chance to shine before I ship him out.

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    3. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Possibility of Rafa rested, so think about that. I might be tempted to play Barfa (sou) over Nolan (tot) but then Nolan will just burn you. I think Newcastle will score more than West Ham but Nolan always scores when on your bench. Your problem might go away if Berba takes the weekendd off to be with his new kiddie.

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    4. BLitZ MaFiA SQuAD
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      I had a total of 25 sitting on the bench :/. but still managed 79 points for my starters

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  4. Moves Like Agger
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Do you guys think its too late to get Suarez? His price is quite high now and it feels like I may have missed the bus with him...

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    1. Plagued by indecision
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      i was thinking that too but will keep an eye on it. RVP bound to do a fair bit in the next four meaning he's less urgent

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    2. emperikal
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      I had to get him in this week. Makes me upset I didn't get him a few weeks back at 9.7 but I'm all aboard now! Cue YC and 1 pointer this weekend ๐Ÿ˜‰

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      1. Plagued by indecision
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Yes, the suspension hanging over him is another consideration. If he's still firing I'd look at him before they play Southampton at home! Hopefully by then he'll have served his suspension.

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    3. Sidd5
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      With good run of fixtures they might keep doing well. But if your happy with your FWDS and MIDS don't break the whole setup to get him in.

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    4. HVT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      I don't think so - how would you be dropping ?

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    5. 1mills
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Don't think he's worth his current value.

      The fact the misses so many shots and generally doesn't get bonus (got 3's in past few weeks on the rare games where he had one shot, scored one goal)

      I would rather pay the extra to have Aguero, especially now City are out of Champions League.

      Even Torres at 9.7 could come back into contention soon enough with Benitez in charge potentially.

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  5. thetinkerman
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    So, changing the subject... regarding Baines' created chances, the quality of the chances, where they're coming from and why they're not being converted into goals.

    It's clear that Baines' created chances are coming from crosses (just take a look at his through ball stats vs. crossing) and this is mirrored by last season's stats too. So why aren't his crosses being converted into goals? It hasn't stopped other wide-men before.

    A quick look at his crossing accuracy tells us that isn't the problem. If you're a member, compare him with Valenica's using Valencia's stats from last season (our model for exemplary wide-play) and take a look at the positions that they're crossing from. They're both mostly from the wing in the final third, but there's a slight difference. Anyone care to comment/hypothesise?

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Simple. Jelavic isn't scoring/converting his crosses like last year.

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      1. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Jelavic wasn't converting his crosses last year either. Baines only had 2 assists last year.

        My (almost baseless) hypothesis - Fellaini likes crosses but from the other side whilst Jelavic likes through balls. I have no idea where to begin trying to invalidate that.

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        1. thetinkerman
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          Could be the case, but there's no way of proving/disproving this really.

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      2. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Take a look at last years data. His chances created vs assists and his crossing are similar to this year. One big difference is that Baines is creating chances a lot more regularly this year.

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    2. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Everton come up against stronger defenses comparatively to Man United? So basically Man United would be expected to score more goals over the season simply because they are a top club. I know this seems simplistic but I'd say a created chance for Man United is worth more than a created chance for Everton.

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      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Interestingly Everton have the most created chances in the league so far this season.

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          Ah I've found it. Everton also have the most shots blocked in the league.

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      2. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        This is true to some extent. Historically, bigger teams have a better chance created:goals ratio, but the difference is normally not that significant. Even the worst teams generally score at least one goal in 15 chances created. Baines is looking at a rate of more like 1 goal to every 25+ chances he creates.

        It's not clear whether it's due to something that him or his team-mates is doing wrong or whether it's simply bad luck and his returns will inevitably pick up if he keeps creating the chances.

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        1. Ryan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          My second theory would be that Everton dwell on the ball too much in the box (this is where too many touches inside the box is a bad thing) As Everton have the most shots blocked it may be because defenses have time to get in the way to block the shot. I blame players such as Fellaini who could be guilty of not being sharp enough to get a quick shot away and seems to require a bit more time.

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          1. Agree with your first point. See below. ๐Ÿ™‚

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          2. thetinkerman
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            This could certainly be a factor. How would you explain Pienaar's much better chances created:assists ratio?

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            1. Ryan
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              13 years, 17 days ago

              He is makes his assists from much closer in. such as within the box itself.

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              1. thetinkerman
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 14 Years
                13 years, 17 days ago

                It's true that Pie's chances created are in a slightly different area (i.e. more central), but they're still far out from goal. Pie does make more through-balls too.

                None of this would explain your argument regarding the players hesitating and allowing the opposition to get more blocks in. Defenders would equally the same chance to get blocks in from chances created from successful crosses compared to a through ball coming in.

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    3. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Maybe Baines is just very cross right now?

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      1. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        I see what you did there!

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    4. Kostja
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Conversion rate for headers is a lot lower than for shots with feet. Baines usually makes high crosses whereas Valencia tries to get sharp balls into feet. Also better converters like RVP and Roo for Valencia.

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      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Actually this is a very good point. A low cross in behind the defensive line is way more lethal than a random boot into the box.

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      2. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        The point about the different kinds of crosses could well be the case but we would need to really look at the chances in order to confirm this hypothesis.

        As for United having better converters, this goes some way to explaining the problem but as I mentioned above, even the worst teams normally create chances at a higher rate of a goal every 25+ chance created.

        Ideally we need more data about the crosses and to look at the chances created by his crosses. Any ideas?

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        1. Yes. See below. ๐Ÿ™‚

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    5. HVT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Not overly sure on all the stats but didn't a lot of baines converted crosses come from the now Departed Tim Cahill a few seasons ago.
      The appeal for me is pens combined with cs but tbh I'm dissapointed with baines returns so far based on his price, I know we have no control over pens but Evertons and I suppose most of the top teams returns of clean sheets just are poor - and at times it's hard to justify returns over Reid/cuellar/Cameron/ etc.

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      1. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        This could be one of the factors and one I did think about. Everton still have quality attacking players though so I don't think it can purely be down to this. We'd have to see his data from those seasons to make a definitive judgement.

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    6. SPorting
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      don't you have any other players to talk about?

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      1. GreennRed
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        They're full of Baines ๐Ÿ™‚

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      2. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        At the moment, this is one of the biggest points of contention in the game and potentially new ground in terms of forecasting creative returns of players. Hence me talking about it.

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    7. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Finding the cause of the low conversion rate is interesting but academic to me though. It won't help me decide whether to keep him. Perhaps I'm just unimaginative, but I can't imagine what kind of explanation we could find that we could expect to change in the near future. Low conversion will continue.

      So Baines is likely to continue getting very few clean sheets, very few assists and the occasional penalty. His £7.3m (my selling price) is only really buying me bonus points.

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      1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        This is where I think we're wrong to criticise. His assist rate is decent (if a little less than you would like/expect) and his goals tally is decent if not spectacular. But we expect too much of him because of the hype combined with the stats combined with the mythology of Baines. And the constant arguments justifying his ownership make it impossible to say definitively whether you want to sell.

        But at the end of the day, if I can get Aguero and captain him along with RVP...screw Baines! ๐Ÿ˜€

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        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          That's true actually, his assists aren't bad. But nowhere near as good as you'd expect from those outrageous numbers. And not enough to support this label he gets of "6th midfielder".

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          1. thetinkerman
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            Indeed. See my posts below. If we could establish empirically that the chances created are in fact somehow a lot less useful than Valencia's (for example) then we could say that he doesn't have the creativity of a midfielder. We're not there yet however.

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      2. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        I think it's important because arguably his biggest appeal is his creativity (he's most consistent in terms of chances created for any player). If we can establish that his poor returns are due to the nature of these chances created, then we can stop talking about it and move on.

        However, if we establish that there's no reason why the chances shouldn't be converted at a higher rate, we can expect positive regression to at least the lower end of the league average (if that's the right way of putting it) and a vast improvement as long as he sustains the production.

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        1. roscola
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          Fair point. But failure to find the cause would not mean there wasn't a cause and if he continued to underdeliver, at some point you would have to call time.

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          1. thetinkerman
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            Yeah, that true. If he continues in this way then yes, we would, regardless of whether the cause could be explained empirically. I don't think we're quite there yet personally.

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    8. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Tinkerman, the issue here is that you are trying to explain why he isn't getting assists a lot. Which is a difficult and complex area to delve into. Without looking at game after game and only looking at stats it would be hard to get a real impression of how unlucky/unfortunate he's been so far.

      But it's also true that he's got 3 assists so far which isn't bad. That's an assist every 4 games. For his chances created maybe you could say he deserves 5 or 6 so far but things just don't work as simply as that.

      Another thing is you are looking at his assist stats to discover where it's all going wrong...but I would argue that it's not the creativity that is lacking but more a well-rounded team performance defensively that has made his returns so poor over the last 7, He's been saved by a penalty and a few BP. But apart from that he has performed pretty woefully because Everton's defence is simply so vulnerable because they attack so much.

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      1. GreennRed
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Explaining why he's not getting assists will not help him make assists in the future. At his price he should be getting more. I hope for all of you sticking with Leighton he starts racking up the points for ye son cos Stoke, Hammers and Norwich defenders are currently giving a better return for around 3m less that can give your team a much better balance.

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      2. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        It certainly is difficult and complex, which is why I'm not attempting it alone.

        I'm putting aside the defensive argument for the purposes of this discussion as it doesn't effect his attacking returns any more than any other creative player.

        Also, as I just mentioned above, if we can establish that he/Everton are doing nothing wrong and are due some positive regression to the league average for chances created:assists, he has the potential to be the highest assister in all positions at the end of the season. That's worth looking at IMO

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        1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          This really all boils down to whether this is just bad luck or a systemic problem. The harder it is to find a systemic problem, the more Occam's Razor tells us he is just having bad luck and will come good. Keep looking for a systemic problem, and if nobody can find it I wll keep him a little while longer. ๐Ÿ™‚

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          1. thetinkerman
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            +millions

            Nice to see you're on my wavelength, except you somehow manage to say it in a lot less words ๐Ÿ˜›

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  6. Plagued by indecision
    • 15 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    I'm going to have to make 2 very boring transfers this week...

    2 FTs - McAuley OUT, Cuellar IN; Nolan OUT, Puncheon IN...
    Leaves me a tidy sum with which to purchase another big hitter up front for the mid-week games... Should I do it?

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    1. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Baines and McCauley to Cuellar and Turner. Nolan too good to lose. None of this 'But Baines is on corners, free-kicks, makes the tea, penalties, Spiderman' cobblers. Everton are conceding goals and he's getting few and far between attacking or bonus points. Too expensive whilke Nolan is worth his price.

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      1. Plagued by indecision
        • 15 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        I agree on Baines, but I'm going to hold for the next 2 home games to see if he does something. He's on borrowed time! You're right about Nolan, and I got him cheap, so I'll hang on for now.

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  7. GreennRed
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Surfer Rosa :

    Begovic
    Cuellar, Sagna, Gorkss
    Bale, Cazorla, Mata,Sterling
    Long, Rooney, Suarez

    Foster, Reid, Clark, Fellaini

    1.5m in bank.

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  8. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    HVT or anyone else with thoughts:

    Would you rather have McAnuff or Larsson for the DGW?

    Which of the following would you rather have as fifth mid to cover for Suarez/Michu yellows over the next four weeks: Lallana, McAnuff, or Larsson?

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    1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Not enough Baines, is that it? ๐Ÿ™‚

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  9. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Probably missed a fair amount of Chelsea discussion already but what do we think of the new formation under Benitez?

    His time at Liverpool would suggest a more conservative midfield so maybe expect to see only 2 of Mata/Hazard/Oscar? I can see Mata maintaining the playmaker role with Hazard in behind Torres.

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    1. FPLCEO
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      They will win at the weekend.......hold tight

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    2. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Have I missed a lot of chat on this? Thought lots of people would be tempted to knee jerk Mata and Hazard out and therefore would be a good topic....

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      1. FPLCEO
        • 16 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Think everyone is waiting to see how the weekend goes mate.......you know how a new Manager can result in a temporary boost

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        1. FPLCEO
          • 16 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          I have both of them so will be watching closely!

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        2. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          Fair enough, waiting has to be the best plan. Good luck!

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  10. roscola
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Facepalmable tweet from the official Premier League account:

    "Happy Birthday to @FellainiM, who turns 25 today, the same number as his @Everton shirt. Can he add to his 6 #BPL goals v #NCFC on Saturday?"

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    1. Billy Gilmore
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Amateurs! ๐Ÿ˜†

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    2. SPorting
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      well, no is the simple answer.

      do i win a prize?

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    3. Daniel_tsl
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      ๐Ÿ˜† Bahaha

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  11. Acquafresca
    • 14 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Is Wisdom nailed on?

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    1. FPLCEO
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      No but likely

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  12. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    So I have a real dilemma, hopefully you guys can help out

    Begovic (mannone)
    baines rafael cueller (davies demel)
    michu cazorla sterling nasri (fellaini)
    Berba RVP Ba

    Have 1FT and 0.6m in the bank.

    I was initially concerned with nasri and had the following choices:
    A: nasri >> valencia
    B: nasri + ba >>> lennon (or AJ) + tevez...with a hit
    C: nasri + ba >>> morrison/walters + suarez...with a hit
    D: save the transfer

    I opted for D since i wanted to keep Ba this week against shampton whereas suarez has 2 tough away games and tevez might not score against city....especially with a hit. SO the plan was to do 2 transfers next gw depending on how Ba performs.

    HOWEVER, i was informed that all the teams that have a home game this gw will also have a home game next gw (midweek)...that changes things slightly as it would make more sense to use the transfer now to take advantage of the 2 home games someone i bring in will have coupled with the fact that i am not sure nasri will start this weekend.

    Sorry for the essay but wanted to provide some reasoning....

    all comments welcome:)

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    1. UnitednationsXI
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      I am leaning towards B as choosing C would leave me with no city/chelski/spurs cover

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    2. Arse Craic
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Keep your transfer. IMO

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    3. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Plenty will be rested for the midweek games I reckon. Sunderland have 2 home games then a double in GW 16. Johnson, Sessegnon or Larsson for Nasri?

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    4. FPLCEO
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      a for me.....Ba should go well and Valencia could blow up this few weeks

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      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        if i do nasri to valencia...then i wont have funds to upgrade ba
        johnson is an option and next gw do ba > tevez

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        1. GreennRed
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          A bad move it would be anyway cos Tony's not giving the returns of old, Yet!

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          1. FPLCEO
            • 16 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            He will this week......a good move

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  13. @ TheTinkerman. The big difference that I can see - and I flagged it up at the beginning of the Season - is that Naismith is in there.

    So the big men, Fellaini and Jelavic, bring the cross down, lay it off to Naismith/Pienaar, then run into dangerous positions, hopefully.

    Therefore, Baines' crosses are both accurate and successful - but not always assists!

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    1. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Ah so his crosses are simply a means to assist the assister?

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      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        with knock downs etc.

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    2. Billy Gilmore
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      But where is the chance created?

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      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        When Baines crosses to Fellaini who knocks it down for someone such as Jelavic to finish it off.

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      2. Those are when Fellaini has a direct shot on goal. He is good, but not excellent, so he doesn't convert as many as say van Persie.

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        1. thetinkerman
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          That still doesn't go all the way in explaining the huge gap between Pie's and Fellaini's assist:chances created ratio, unless we looked at all of Baine's and Pie's successful crosses and chances created from crosses... not sure that's realistic.

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    3. SPorting
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      gah. will everyone please stop with the Baines over analysis?!

      you either pay for his services and accept what he returns or you don't. just like every, single other player in the FPL game.

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      1. Calm down, dear - it's only a game! ๐Ÿ˜‰

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      2. roscola
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Exactly. People come to this site to find out about film reviews and get road directions. If you want discussion of the relative merits of fantasy footballers then go to some other site

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        1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          ๐Ÿ˜ฏ

          ๐Ÿ˜†

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        2. Daniel_tsl
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          ๐Ÿ˜€

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        3. *giggles*

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        4. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          Haha, nice ๐Ÿ™‚

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          1. SPorting
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            and screw you too dickwad

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        5. thetinkerman
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          ๐Ÿ˜†

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          1. SPorting
            • 14 Years
            13 years, 17 days ago

            just don't start over analysing the rest of your team.

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        6. SPorting
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          ex-fuc-king-actly.

          take your Baines shit and shove it!

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      3. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Yeah come on be sporting ๐Ÿ˜‰

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        1. SPorting
          • 14 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          there's only one and he's perfect.

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    4. thetinkerman
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      The 'big man knocking his crosses down for others' doesn't explain why his chances created aren't being converted though. If someone knocks down a cross, it's not a chance created for Baines.

      Since he's not playing through balls, where are his created chances coming from if not crosses?

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      1. Gamoriola of the Galaxy (Eu…
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Doos's theory, like the others so far put forward, has too many assumptions woven into it. The "bad luck" theory doesn't assume anything other than that good players can have a run of bad luck. Occam chooses (b).

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    5. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      I've watched Baines many times this season and he gets loads of crosses in but it's usually just part of Everton's go-to-plan. I don't really think he's especially lethal with crosses because he's not always getting into the ideal places. He will cross from anywhere and his job at Everton is to hoof the ball into the box from set pieces.

      But it's the same with Shorey, Reading just give him the ball ALL the time. And that's what happens with Baines. They pass to him as their go-to-tactic because they know they are best building from the left. So you have these stats showing you how creative Baines is. But is he especially creative in his own right? I don't know. I think he's mainly just a really solid full back who can play this role like Shorey of whipping crosses in and feeding the attacking players with something to work with. Everton's tactics are so relentlessly attacking that they get an abundance of chances. And with two big men up top it's easy to see why they like to get Baines putting in high balls.

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      1. thetinkerman
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        All perhaps true but it doesn't really address the issue of why his chances created:assist ratio is so low compared to team-mates and other wide players. He's creating a lot of chances and has solid crossing accuracy so I don't think we can use the argument that he's just hoofing it in aimlessly.

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  14. Arse Craic
    • 16 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Baines (c) this weekend....anyone?

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    1. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Hmmm, not sure. Are there any stats supporting it ...

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    2. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      I think you will need to write a thesis on why he can assist you a goal before doing that...have it on my desk by Monday...

      In the meantime captain Gorkss, he's due.

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      1. Daniel_tsl
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        +1

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    3. Daniel_tsl
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Pass

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    4. Arse Craic
      • 16 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      He's gonna keep a clean sheet and score a penalty.

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      1. Daniel_tsl
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Sure, let's go with this ๐Ÿ˜‰

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    5. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
      • 13 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Never works out for me, so no I wouldn't

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      1. cuterandy
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        never captain baines, never bench baines..it's an FPL rule mate ๐Ÿ™‚

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        1. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          A very sound piece of advice!

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    6. thetinkerman
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Never captain, never bench!

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      1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
        • 13 Years
        13 years, 17 days ago

        Always sell if you're fed up!

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        1. Corkyote FFS CWC Champion 2…
          • 13 Years
          13 years, 17 days ago

          I went to the arsenal game last night, lovely little player caz.

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  15. Daniel_tsl
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    So Blues fans, how u guys feelin with Rafa as the manager?

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      13 years, 17 days ago

      Not a blues fan, but just wanted to throw the stat that chelsea have had 9 managers in 9 years, also known as the Abramovic era ๐Ÿ˜†

      Don't understand the logic of firing a coach 4pts out of 1st, won CL last year, and gets along well with the players.

      Ship all chelsea players, here comes the downfall.

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  16. Dr Dream
    • 13 Years
    13 years, 17 days ago

    Seems to be a lot of confusion about who the manager is at Chelsea....I can confirm that the manager. Roman Abramovich, has in fact not been sacked....

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