Podcast

The ScoutCast – Episode Ninety Nine – Convalescence

7 March 2013 2834 comments
Mark Mark
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One man’s personal battle to mastermind his beloved Fantasy Football team through extreme adversity steals the show in this week’s episode of the ScoutCast – and we’re not talking about Granville struggling with his BAFTA award-winning hangover.

Episode 99 has all the usual ingredients as we look back on Gamweek 28, rinse through the Gameweek 29 options, pop in to disturb the Professor and his Rate My Team computer, analyse the transfer ins and outs and, of course, give another community member the “Fully Jonty” treatment.

Jonty delivers a heart-warming and rather humbling account this week, emphasising just how far the dedicated Fantasy manager will go to steer his ship. Postponing your bedbath to play your Wildcard? You better believe it.

Enjoy our bedside manner via this link or drip-feed the medicine by using the handy player below…

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

2,834 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Kavali
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    What's happend with Guthrie, is he alive? Any minimal chance that he will play? Some question about Cameron

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    1. Kavali
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Same*

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    2. newrob
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      You still have Guthrie??

      Cameron seems to be fringe player now, plays in midfield now and again but is not a starter by any means

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      1. Kavali
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I have strange feeling that he will play (Guthrie)... But again, I 'm wrong in 90% of a time

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        1. Perthite
          • 15 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          94% of all stats are made up.

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  2. Dynamic
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    My last few questions tonight, please can I get some answers

    A) Is Enrique nailed on for Liverpool
    B) Will RVP fall before the start of the next gw
    C) Will Wilson rise before the start of the next gw
    D) Will Cameron fall before the start of the next gw

    Thanks

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    1. Viper
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      A) Yes
      B) Yes
      C) No
      D) No

      All in my humble opinion..

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    2. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Yes, I reckon so.
      Yes
      I very much doubt it
      Again, doubtful

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    3. newrob
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      A) Yes
      B) Yes, tomorrow
      C) Will be close but probably not
      D) No I doubt it

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    4. Dynamic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks guys, these are the answers I wanted to hear.

      What is the percentage chance that RVP will fall?

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      1. Trigg ⭐️
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I'd say 99%. I'm not saying 100, as you will blame me if he doesn't 😉

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        1. Crazy Old Goat
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Isn't he only on -6% though?

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          1. Crazy Old Goat
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            Nevermind, just realised fiso hasn't updated.

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      2. newrob
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        He will definitely fall tomorrow

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    5. Phaze 1
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      a - yes

      b- yes

      c- maybe cdc is broken

      d- maybe

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    6. Dynamic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks.

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  3. shiffo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Pay 4 points for Anichebe - Le Fondre? I have 8 players playing. Hate hits but usually.

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    1. Viper
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Well it is basically only a 2 point hit, think of it like that! I'd say go for it..

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      1. shiffo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks, I think I can live with a -2 if he blanks.

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  4. Trigg ⭐️
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Did anyone ever play the online version of Championship Manager?

    I miss it, since it went under due to lack of interest.

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  5. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    The FFS love-in with Sturridge needs to die...

    (until he scores again)

    🙁

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    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      When fit, he is fantasy gold. I hate to admit it though, but Suarez is a special player, and i can't feel comfortable without him in my team. I am your grandma.

      xx

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      1. In Like Flynn.
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I have them both for this week, then one out next week I think.

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        1. In Like Flynn.
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Or GW34 having just looked at their fixtures.

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    2. gravless
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Daniel is fab.

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    3. tm245
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Hope you're right -- firsttime Suarez owner as of an hour ago!

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  6. HarryS
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Mignolet Bunn
    Onuoha Johnson Harte Zabaleta Davies
    Bale Maloney Walcott Sissoko Michu
    Lambert RVP Suarez

    Any pressing changes anyone would recommend for this team?

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  7. tm245
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    I nerded out as it snowed this afternoon and compared my captaincy to the current #1 in the world. Not surprisingly, it was brutal:

    Him 576 pts (bit more than 20pg, and not really an RVP autopilot in the first 20 gws, either -- he was some of the lowest c scores, actually)
    Me 358 pts (around 12.5pg, and more RVP 4 pters than I care to remember)

    Now, I can't just give myself the extra 220 pts and say that's our only difference -- after all, he often had the awesome players I didn't AND captained them -- but I feel that picking a guy who on average gets just over 6 pts is a big failure. The quiz Spartakmac posted earlier has me thinking alot about explosiveness vs consistency in captaincy selection -- I've posted before hoping for some sort of advanced metrics or game theory about it but most responses are a mix of hunches about class, form, fixtures. Am really thinking that some theories or stats about explosiveness might hold the answer. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

    I guess this is what happens when I make my transfers on Thursday instead of Friday because FISO is down.

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    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Great post. I've been too careless with captaincy this season and your comment made me realise just how much it's cost me. Will be more careful next season...

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      1. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I think consistency is better for a captain because you are more likely to get more baps. (more games in which they have scored in)

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      2. tm245
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks -- his picks were immense (it felt like I was getting a beatdown in the GW teens!) so I am just trying to wrap my head around the explosiveness angle.

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    2. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I think that you are missing one important factor here - luck.

      Every week, someone explodes, and people will have captained them. Also, every week people think that someone might explode, and they end up getting 2 points, or even just the 1.

      With 2.5 million players, there is always going to be someone who picked a lot of captains who went on to explode, and those will be the ones who are at the very top of the tree.

      You can captain a player who scores 6 every week, or one who scores 2,2,7,1,2,21 and the difference is minimal. The key is to pick a captain every week who scores an average of 12.5, as the leader has gone. That's just getting lucky, as much as you want to make your selections on educated guesses.

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      1. tm245
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Fair enough, but then #1 is one hell of a lucky captainer -- not sure that I am comfortable settling for that.

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        1. Trigg ⭐️
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Of course luck is a factor. You're being too critical of yourself! You probably make a very good, educated choice on who your captain should be every week, and that player - who is also just a mortal human like you and I - might not score you many points. But it doesn't mean that it was the wrong decision.

          This all centres around the law of large numbers. Someone is going to pick a great captain every week, because there are 2.5 million people, all picking a captain, who may or may not do well. Every week, someone overcomes odds of 14 million to 1, all down to the this law. Incredible stuff.

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          1. tm245
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            Good points.

            Didn't see this but responded in kind below.

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        2. Reckoner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          You just fell victim to selection bias.

          Out of 2.5 million teams, some decently put together ones which would do well anyway will go on a huge (C) hot streak, and end up at the top of the leaderboard.

          Its about making a good underlying decision. If you wanted to be a better poker player you would learn more about odds and tactics of the best players. But if the top players were making money on hitting lots of flush draws, asking how you hit more flush draws yourself is just looking at it backwards.

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          1. Phaze 1
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            good post.

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          2. tm245
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            Who you calling biased?!?

            Seriously though, good points, but are we really thinking the right captain is hitting that flush draw? Not ready to accept that, but I love the poker analogy -- at times when games are going on and people on here are moaning about picks gone wrong, it feels like sitting next to the smartest guy who bitches for an hour after his aces get busted.

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            1. Reckoner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              Well, to keep the analogy going -

              A good poker player would only be in for the Flush draw when the odds of it coming off are merited by the size of the pot. All you can do is make the right calls, and in the long term luck will even out, and you will win.

              I think (C) choice should be like that - weigh up all the odds either in your head, on paper, or using statistical analysis, and bet on the best player. But know it won't come off everytime.

              The other option is to go lower risk, pick a nice safe bet (like RVP most weeks) and accept that you are getting less risk, but also less reward.

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          3. Trigg ⭐️
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            I made the same analogy below 😀

            Excellent point, also. Captaining Michu away at Arsenal is like chasing a flush, and that week, you hit the heart on the river. Someone is gonna win a lot of hands in a row on a flush draw, just down to the numbers.

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      2. Kavali
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        luck is a key factor

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    3. gravless
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      My capt choices have been, in the main, horrific. 🙂

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    4. SC not pearls before swine
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah, the thing is last year if you didn't put the armband on RVP you were doomed. This year, he never really gave you a reason not to captain him, but he hasn't been quite as explosive, I think. But that fear of falling behind my rivals is a huge part of the reason I captained RVP so much.

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      1. tm245
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Right -- just wondering if there might be a new way to think about it. Bale v Suarez this gw is a classic example.

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    5. Dynamic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Just worked mine out and I got 416 pts.

      Didn't realise how vital the captain pick has been throughout my season. Generally if I pick a good captain I have a good rise and vice versa.

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    6. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Cool post.

      I worked mine out: 474

      16.9 pg, pretty decent! That means my captains have on average scored 8.5 points a week. I guess I have been lucky/successful overall with some of my captain picks.

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    7. Kavali
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      If you have 2,5 milion players, after first gameweek, i don't know, 700,000 of them will choose right captain. After second GW, that number be smaller but my point is that there are so many players in the game, and someone must choose always the right ones

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      1. tm245
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I kind of get it but if you continue with those diminishing #s you hit 1st around gw15 - he's only a few pts in the lead so I assume the others near him have done similarly well. Not convinced that they are all lucky, but am sure they are all good -- that's what I'm trying to sort out.

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        1. Kavali
          • 15 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          If for example MU play with wigan at home, and RVP is great in previous week, that number will not be so smaller compare to last week

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          1. Kavali
            • 15 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            This is a speciffic season and RVP was obvios choice and, this is the best one, he score or assist almost always

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        2. Reckoner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          (Add-on to my post above)

          The problem by looking at the top teams is there is not the cause and effect you think. They pretty much MUST have good (C) choices, or they wouldn't be there. Its not just a question of good captain leads to high rank, high rank also means you almost certainly have a good captain.

          I think the interesting point about captains is it shows risk aversion. Most people prefer to put the armband on RVP, settle for 10-15 points, and not too many 4-pointers. Bank a small win, rather than chase a big one. Its the massively safe choice, but rarely optimal.

          I think the fear of a 4-pointer drives most people to make safe (C) choices, when riskier bets might pay off more over the season.

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    8. Ranieri's Ghost
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Hey thanks mate for the nice words. I have to be honest, I think captaincy choice is the major difference when it comes to this game...after a while, with a little effort we all know which players to pick (Bale, RVP etc. etc.), but I've been lucky with (c) choices this year an it's made a massive diff!
      Good luck!

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    9. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Really interesting actually. Its amazing that its a 200 point difference. It just shows that for a lot of us the difference between a decent season a a great one is the captains choices.

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  8. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
    • 16 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Any advice on what to do this week? My line up at the moment for GW29 is (BANK = £4.8m, 1 free transfer):

    Bunn(SOT)
    Harte(AVL) Dawson(liv) Davies(wba) G.Johnson(TOT)
    Sissoko(STO) Bale(liv) Guthrie(AVL)
    Fletcher(qpr) Suarez(TOT)

    subs - Begovic, Azpilicueta, Mata, Walcott, Aguero

    With Guthrie probably not playing it means i'll have 9 starters. Best use of my free transfer?

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    1. gravless
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero ➡ Benteke

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      1. SC not pearls before swine
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I'd agree with that. Might be worth a hit to shed Guthrie to your favorite midfielder with a fixture this week, maybe saving enough money to upgrade Fletcher to one of the United boys next week.

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        1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
          • 16 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          I think this is the way i am heading. Not really in favour of taking a hit in weeks like this but it maybe worth it seeing as Guthrie is a wasted squad member at the moment

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      2. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Would you do it for a hit?

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        1. gravless
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          I'd do anything for a hit. 🙂

          Seriously - yes.

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    2. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      By saying that you don't need an extra defender, and that I'd definitely keep hold of Mata and Walcott for the next few weeks, that narrows it down to getting rid of Aguero or Guthrie.

      I'd be tempted to do Aguero > The striker who you think will do best from now until the end of the season and then Fletcher > RVP/Rooney next week.

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      1. Viper
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I'd agree with this.

        Aguero -> Benteke, Fletcher -> RVP next week.

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        1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
          • 16 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Definitely got to make sure i have the cash for RVP next week

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    3. Kavali
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Pray for Guthrie man, I now I will

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      1. Kavali
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        know*

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    4. The Shadow
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      It must involve getting Aguero out. Blank GW. Injured. Probably not worth hanging onto for DGW.

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      1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
        • 16 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Yep he's definitely gone this week, just gotta decide who to replace him with out of the available candidates. Benteke seems like a safe choice given his performance this season, plus he has pens. Could say the same about Lukaku i guess but i reckon he has the tougher games. Remy is the other option and is no doubt more of a punt

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    5. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero ➡ Benteke(C)

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      1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
        • 16 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Whoever i bring in will have to work hard to get the handband off Suarez this week

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        1. Acquafresca
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          I think Benteke gets the nod over Suarez for me...

          just look at the man's away form, playing against a leaky reading with no first choice keeper, and trying to prove a point.

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          1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
            • 16 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            hmmmm one to ponder, assuming i bring in Bentekkers of course!

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  9. Viper
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Ok, so one last question. I know this is really close but which looks the better?

    A. Zabaleta -> Debuchy (-4). Gwk 30, Cisse -> RVP

    B. Pog -> Remy (-4). Gwk 30, Cisse -> Rooney

    If I could get 3 votes for any 1 selection i'd be happy 🙂

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    1. SC not pearls before swine
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      B, makes more sense to me. I prefer RVP to Rooney, but the difference in prices at least make it close, and Remy/Zabs are way better than Pog/Debuchy.

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    2. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      b

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    3. Dynamic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      B looks better.

      I've just looked at your team, could you not to Fell -> Sissoko this week and then get in RVP this week?

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      1. Dynamic
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        *next week

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      2. Viper
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I have already done Fell -> Sissoko but that only leaves me with 13.3m when I lose Cisse so will still be 0.4m short presuming RVP falls again (would leave me with 12.0m if I still did the Pog -> Remy transfer)

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    4. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I think you need to get rid of Pog. The striker slots could get valuable! Can you not maybe figure out another way to get in RVP, if you want him badly?

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      1. Viper
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I can and it involves selling GJ for a 4.6 defender, maybe Dawson? But looking at GJ fixtures, I will find it hard to sell!

        Who knows, maybe faith might make my mind up for me (injuries, suspensions etc. etc.) 🙂

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        1. Trigg ⭐️
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Exactly, one GW at a time!

          I think your first priority is getting rid of Pog. If you don't do it now, you're stuck with him for good, I fear.

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          1. Viper
            • 15 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            Pog -> Remy it is, for a 2 point hit 😉

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    5. Viper
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      4-0 for B.

      Thanks to everyone that replied, helps a lot! Can't stand the sight of Pog in my team so that probably is the way to go..

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      1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
        • 16 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        +1

        I think so

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        1. Viper
          • 15 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Cheers SD!

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  10. isacki: full casual
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Haxball anyone?

    If someone has a decent connection they should host, mine is mobile broadband crap...

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  11. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Benteke (c) or cisse (c) (if fully healthy) ?

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    1. Viper
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      If I had Benteke this week I would captain him (look at his recent away record, excluding the Arsenal game). Reading are also missing their first choice keeper and Taylor, the replacement keeper, wasn't brilliant last week..

      Plus, there is no doubt surrounding him..

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      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers

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      2. Captain Remorse
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Surely he is due not to score? I have two Reading defenders this week LOL.

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    2. ogqozo
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      With Ben Arfa back, I'm not sure Cisse is sure to play. Either way, he really has a horrible season. I can't imagine thinking of captaining him.

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      1. Lord Flashheart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        It's about to turn...

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  12. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Suarez is averaging 21 points per game in my team

    😎

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    1. gravless
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I used to like you.

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      1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        🙁
        /\
        |
        /\
        _______

        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
        ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

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        1. Trigg ⭐️
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Unreal, you look like you need a good meal!

          *hands Unreal a parmo and chips*

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          1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            what's a parmo?

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            1. Trigg ⭐️
              • 13 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              Google it. It's a heart attack in a box. Delicious.

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              1. The Shadow
                • 13 Years
                12 years, 9 months ago

                Our version is the 'Garbage Plate."
                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_plate

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                1. Trigg ⭐️
                  • 13 Years
                  12 years, 9 months ago

                  I have never heard of this before, but now I really want one! 😀

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        2. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
          ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 🙁 ^^^^^^^^^
          ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ /\ ^^^^^^^^^^^^
          ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ | ^^^^^^^^^^^^^
          ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ /\ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

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      2. Gaz Downright
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        when was that?!

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  13. Captain Robert Hatch
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Huey Lewis and The News says:

    Take hits to be a square
    So many hits to be a square

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  14. Acquafresca
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    TM245.

    Just calculated my (C) ppg.

    Im at 436 total so far through 28 weeks, averaging 15.6.

    Quite interesting considering 1st place has score 140pts more on captaincy selections alone..

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      scored*

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  15. gebb
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Lennon actually injured? That would suck

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    1. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Was he?

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  16. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
    • 16 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Any midfielders around £6m worth replacing Guthrie with for a hit this week? From what i can see the only likely candidates are N'Zogbia, Downing or De Guzman

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      None that interest me. Maybe get a solid bench fodder until end of the season.

      I picked up Schneiderlin a couple weeks back, plays 90 mins every week and gets the odd goal/assist.

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      1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
        • 16 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Just not sure this week is a good week to take i hit. I know i should look at it more long term but i really don't fancy starting GW29 on -4!

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        1. Acquafresca
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Then hold fire.

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          1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
            • 16 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            I think so. Who knows, Guthrie might be declared fit and back in the squad tomorrow?

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            1. Acquafresca
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              Unlikely, but worth a shot.

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    2. Mile Plankton - Myth and Ch…
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Pilko or Snod maybe?

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    3. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Snodgrass

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      1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
        • 16 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Unfortunately Snodgrass would leave me very tight on getting RVP back in next week. I might be able to do it given a price drop given a price drop or two for Van Persie but not sure i want to risk not being able to afford getting him back

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    4. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I'd be tempted to get Maloney in next week, or something similar. I don't fancy any of those options, especially long term.

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    5. SC not pearls before swine
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      6.2 too much? I really fancy Snodgrass to get something. Not anything great, but Norwich's fixtures are great and his stats indicate he's been unlucky of late.

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      1. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
        • 16 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        He is the stand out option in that price bracket isn't he. Like i said above it would leave me dangerously tight on getting RVP back

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        1. SC not pearls before swine
          • 15 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Yeah, maybe you're better off trusting your gut, praying for a point or two from Guthrie, and saving the poor points. Maloney will be a very affordable (and arguably better) option next week.

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          1. SC not pearls before swine
            • 15 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            *four points

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          2. SuperDunny - Used to be goo…
            • 16 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            Cheers man

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    6. ogqozo
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Downing isn't likely. He's awful against any stronger opponent. Nothing against Arsenal, nothing against City, nothing against United, nothing against Zenit.

      If you want just this week, why not go with the favorites, like Morrison and not De Guzman, for example. He's not a great bet, but better...

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  17. Trigg ⭐️
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    On the luck v skill debate ...

    The classic example is a poker tournament. If you're gonna win it, you need to be good. You also need to be lucky. You can argue how much of the game is skill, and how much of it is luck, but you need both.

    For example, you might know for a fact that you're currently winning, you have two pairs and the guy across from you is chasing a flush. You bet out, knowing that he has nothing, and he calls. The next card doesn't help him, so you bet out even more. Right now, he is something like a 20% underdog to win the hand. He makes the call, and the last card helps him out. You got unlucky. A similar thing happens again, and even though you knew that you were making smart, sensible choices, and were an 80% favourite to win both hands, you're not down to your last chip.

    Now imagine that you want to captain Suarez at home to Southampton, back in October when they were leaking goals. Swansea were away at Arsenal, and someone thinks Michu might be a good shout. You might argue that the chances of Suarez getting more points are about 80%-20% and you would probably be right. At 5pm, Suarez did nothing but got booked, and Michu hit a late double to score 16 points.

    Ouch.

    FPL is like poker. Yeah, you gotta know your stuff. But if you ain't got the luck, you ain't winning jack.

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I say 75% skill and 25% luck.

      If you're good, you can come top 5-10k consistently, but you need that 25% luck to win the whole thing.

      So I agree, but think it's more skill than luck.

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      1. Canadian Football
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        i agree.....if hard work is included in "skill"

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        1. Acquafresca
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          agreed.

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    2. Egg noodle
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      But if you were good, you wouldn't let him see a cheap turn, and overbet on the turn so he is gambling his entire tournament stack chasing a flush 😉

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      1. Trigg ⭐️
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I bet out just enough that he would call. After all, I'm an 80% favourite, I want him to call 😉

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        1. Mile Plankton - Myth and Ch…
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Nah. You took enough on flop and turn. You don't want him to see thr river.

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          1. Trigg ⭐️
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            Why not? 80% of the time, I win even more money.

            I guess if you're playing tournament poker, you might want to minimise risks, but in a ring game, you're absolutely incorrect.

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            1. Mile Plankton - Myth and Ch…
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              Still, I think strong bet that makes him fold is right choice. I am not experinced player, though.

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        2. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          God, I haven't played poker in a good while but all of that stuff is coming flooding back to me now, I used to study the game in such depth. And I remember that feeling of being greedy, feeling you've sussed the other guy out as a chaser and you kind of want him to be enticed rather than scare him off as the odds are so good on your side. But then you see the suit you can tell he's chasing come on the river and your heart sinks 🙂

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          1. Trigg ⭐️
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            I loved the game, back in the day. Read all of the books on it - Dan Harrington was my hero, the master of strategy - and played it a lot. I definitely made a profit on it too, I kept a good account of my wins and losses. Although nowhere near enough to go into it as a pro!

            Now, I just hate it. People just call you with anything, and even if you have the best hand after the flop, when you have 6 callers, you're not gonna win. Even when I go all in, I seem to get people calling with 9 high and beating me 😀

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            1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
              • 13 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              😀

              Yeah I know the way, I started out playing tournaments mostly and then moved onto Cash games, I much prefer cash games as you can sit around and observe others without really feeling you need to rush things and make quickfire decisions that might be the end of you in a tournament. It's also really satisfying waiting for that big profit in a cash game and if you can be disciplined, leaving when it's the right time before your luck is out 😀

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            2. Phaze 1
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              I would love to know what games you are playing in when u get 6 players to see the flop. I can only assume these are live games?

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              1. Trigg ⭐️
                • 13 Years
                12 years, 9 months ago

                I'm exaggerating a little. But most low stakes games are like that. I used to play higher stakes, where people won't make stupid calls with a draw, but not a serious player anymore.

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      2. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        🙂

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    3. Viper
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I'll +1 for the effort that went into writing that! 😉

      You certainly need both elements! You won't get very far with only one of those elements at your disposal.

      Numerous examples of luck throughout the season but most recent for me: My captain differential Gerrard handing the penalty to my main rival's captain Sturridge! Sick..

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      1. Trigg ⭐️
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        At the end of the day, as much as stats can be useful to a certain extent, we are betting on people to perform. It's almost on a par with betting on the horses!

        Bale might have won his last few races, but he might not win the next one.

        The best players will finish in the top 10k every year. The luckiest out of those 10k will win it.

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    4. Zep
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      He has a 35% chance to catch his flush card on the turn if you have two pair... 20% on the river...

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      1. Trigg ⭐️
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I was right with the 80-20 on the river then 😀

        I've not played in a while, I'm impressed that I can remember those numbers!

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        1. Zep
          • 15 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          I loved the analogy... very apt...

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    5. gravless
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      There is little skill in this game.

      What skill there is, is simply knowing the players from each team who 'score' FPL points. (Big f** king deal)

      So much luck is involved with injuries, rotation, sendings-off etc etc etc

      Don't kid yourself Acqua.

      Yes you can attain a decentish rank each season by not taking hits and refraining from punting.

      But that is NOT skill - it's dedication and taking the game seriously.

      A decent rank is subsequently attained because there are so few people who take it that seriously.

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      1. Gaz Downright
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        I think you're underestimating a lot of accrued knowledge there Katie. You can't just go picking random players and get lucky. That being said, a lot of people on here probably have artificial skill, as they just copy the forum consensus.

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        1. gravless
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          I know what you're trying to say. But it is not 'skill'.

          It's knowledge that gives you an advantage, just like in poker.

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          1. Gaz Downright
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            oh dear, you just forced me to dictionary your hiney

            skill
            noun
            the ability, coming from one's knowledge, practice, aptitude, etc., to do something well:

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    6. Ranieri's Ghost
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Hey nice post!
      I agree apart from one fundamental element that is missing. The difference here is there is the added human element of people performing. So, yes there needs to be luck definitely, but part of the skill aspect is not just working the numbers and probability, but thinking about other factors...like the psychology at play.
      Basic example: last week man utd had a relatively simple fixture, and if you take out all the will he play or won't he nonsense, rvp would be a wise captin choice, BUT if you are rvp and set to play a few days later at real madrid...how hard are you pushing your performance that night?
      The other major human element is coaching decisions. That's even trickier, and I think it takes a few years before you can work out how people like fergie or mancini are going to ruin your life on any given weekend 🙂

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      1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Totally agree with this. Well said. A lot of the psychological elements are crucial. Is the player well rested? Is he carrying a knock? Is he likely to be subbed off early? Is he on good form? Is he lacking confidence? Is he likely to really push himself 100% in this game? etc etc. Loads of little things you can try to analyse and use it to back up your decisions.

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        1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          OMG you're no.1 in the world 😯

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          1. Ranieri's Ghost
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            hehe you know - I am trying to convince my girlfriend to call me that, but she ain't buyin it 🙂

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        2. Ranieri's Ghost
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Thanks! Is he playing for a new contract....is there enough squad depth to make him need to try his a$$ off .... It goes on and on and on.
          This stuff will send us all mad!

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          1. In Like Flynn.
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            How's his home life? Which in some cases is crucial.

            Are he and the team happy?

            As you say on and on.

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      2. Trigg ⭐️
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Of course, we can pick the players who we think will start, have a lot to play for, and have a chance to score a lot of points against the opposition. That's a lot of factors!

        But then they might hit the post 3 times, get booked, and someone else's captain touched the ball twice - to score 2 penalties.

        So many factors that can affect a performance, what chance do we have of making the right choice every week?

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        1. Ranieri's Ghost
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          You're totally right.
          There are the things you can never control though (deflected own goal etc etc).
          Just like your poker analogy it's just about understanding the parts you might have some capacity to predict, and then also taking calculated risk

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          1. Trigg ⭐️
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            Wow, congratulations on the ranking! Like I said, it's all luck 😉

            I'm kidding, you obviously know what you're doing, just relying on a bit of luck. Can I ask who you're captaining this week, so I can ride a bit of your luck? 😀

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            1. Ranieri's Ghost
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              Haha thanks. You know what, just like last week, I will drive myself nuts until the deadline to decide. I actually had it on Suarez til 5mins before then talked myself out of it....brilliant hey.
              It totally depends on your position I reckon, as to how much risk you might want to take. Who are you deciding between and what's your lead/deficit?
              Also who do your rivals have in their team and who are they likely to go for?
              See, it sucks, but there is no simple answer...which to be honest is why I don't hang in the forum much, cause it's impossible to give a good answer quickly 🙂

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              1. Trigg ⭐️
                • 13 Years
                12 years, 9 months ago

                Very true, and nicely done, getting out of that question 😀

                I'll be going with Suarez, down to low ownership at the top of my ML, and knowing that he will always have a lot of efforts on goal.

                Good luck, and thanks.

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                1. Ranieri's Ghost
                  • 14 Years
                  12 years, 9 months ago

                  Thanks...and wise choice...you just need to hope he doesn't have that week when he gets a brain-snap red card...
                  just messing with ya. Good luck!

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  18. Canadian Football
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    @ Acqua.....we have some work to do!!!! Everyone in the doubles competition you are going down.

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      +1. Let's do this!! 😀

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      1. Canadian Football
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Can you set up our squad? Im thinking to set up on Saturday. send me the pswd if and log in by email

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    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Hey CF, get in the FPL Open. 😉

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      1. Canadian Football
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        im in but i think i am at a disadvantage as i still have WC

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        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          Depends when you play it, if against someone lower ranked, no penalty.

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  19. newrob
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    What is the lowest amount of players someone is fielding this week then? I think I am going with 8.....

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    1. newrob
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Also how do you put a picture in your profile? I am probably being rather stupid here

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      1. Mile Plankton - Myth and Ch…
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        go to gravatar site
        And I'am fielding 11 with one hit.

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      2. GreennRed
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        gravatar.com I think. Check the FAQ link below.

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  20. cr4zym4n
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Just read TM245's post on captaincy, and good replies all. Certainly I agree w/ the laws and all.

    A slightly different question. Has anyone analyzed captaining a single player all season long (say, Bale or RvP) vs. the typical strategic weekly fixture/form selection? I'm curious how I've done in that department, I will analyze this a bit later as I have to go off to dinner now.

    If you have the inclination, would be curious how others did as well.

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    1. Phaze 1
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I'd assume most would be much worse off if you just stuck it on Bale/RVP/Suarez all year as the numbers above would show.

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  21. Zep
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Afternoon DZ, just listening to the Scoutcast now... will be back on when it's finished... 😀

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    1. Paolo Di Laernu - low rep r…
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I've recorded it so I can listen to it later 😀

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      1. Zep
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        How do you record it?

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  22. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Leagues Update
    ==============

    FPL Open (closes GW29): 521 entered, 256 spots, 256th spot @ 11,769th @ 1,649 pts.

    Elite 64 (closes GW31): 293 entered, 64 spots, 64th spot @ 979th @ 1,732 pts.

    Millionaire Club (closes GW31): 27 qualified.

    Just over 33 hours left to enter the FPL Open.

    Open for everyone to enter.

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    1. BombardingGunner
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I've joined FPL Open but I don't understand what is this 256th spot and all that..

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  23. NATSTER
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Please choose 1 FW and 1 MF.

    Benteke, Remy, Lukaku, P.Cissé
    Sessegnon, Cabaye, N'Zogbia

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    1. SC not pearls before swine
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Lukaku and Sessegnon. Although a case can be made for any of the forwards except Cissé IMO.

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      1. NATSTER
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Hard to choose, but I like your choices too. It's Benteke who gives me a doubt to get Lukaku.

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  24. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    1) benteke or lukaku for next few gw's?
    2) chance of cueller and onuha playing this weekend?
    3) which combo do you prefer from gw30 onwards..
    A) baines + fellaini
    B) enrique + mata

    everton might have a dgw soon so feels weird of gettin rid of their players (and then waste FT to bring them back)

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  25. hellothere23
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Need some help guys, only have 8 players playing this week!

    Bunn, Begovic
    Evans, Santon, Clyne, Davies, Zab
    Puncheon, Bale, Mata, Walcott, Michu
    RVP, Suarez, Lambert.

    0.4 in bank. 1 FT. What would you do?

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    1. The Shadow
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Move Evans. He's the one I'm not sure I'd want back in future weeks.

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  26. Canadian Football
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    I can field XI for this week without FT and am thinking i might be at a disadvantage because i am stuck with the template team. Feeling a little uneasy about it tbh

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      What's your team this week?

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      1. Canadian Football
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Ming
        Enrique/Harte/Wilson/Cameron
        Bale/Michu/Punch
        Suarez/Stu/Lambert

        Mata/Theo/Zab bench

        Might do Cameron>RMartin boring

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        1. Acquafresca
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          I would try to maximize attacking potential/points.

          Perhaps consider Sturridge > Benteke

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          1. Canadian Football
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            not picking a villa striker...was going to raise funds for stu>rvp next week

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  27. Canadian Football
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    This game is a lot tougher to play without FISO.....anyone know when it will be back up?

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      Here you go bud:

      http://development.totalfpl.com/pricechanges

      Use that till FISO is back up

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      1. Canadian Football
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        thanks man

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        1. Acquafresca
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          No problem. This Leafs game has been disappointing so far.. you can tell we played yesterday.

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          1. Canadian Football
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            yeah....some dumb ass plays on def. proud of the boys thus far.

            See above....what do you think?

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            1. UnderstandablyDistraught
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              Hitting the last few minutes in Rangers/Islanders 1-1

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              1. UnderstandablyDistraught
                • 14 Years
                12 years, 9 months ago

                Sorry, seems the end of game is the "Foxwoods final five" now

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                1. Canadian Football
                  • 14 Years
                  12 years, 9 months ago

                  rangers will start to pick it up,,,

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                  1. UnderstandablyDistraught
                    • 14 Years
                    12 years, 9 months ago

                    They have been playing well, especially Nash. Loss of Staal could be big though. He was their best defenseman

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            2. Captain Robert Hatch
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 9 months ago

              realignment next season will have the Red Wings and Leafs rivalry of old renewed.

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              1. UnderstandablyDistraught
                • 14 Years
                12 years, 9 months ago

                Rangers OT win 🙂

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        2. Gaz Downright
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          12 years, 9 months ago

          christ CF, you been playing all this time without the help of tfpl price transfer monitoring?

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          1. Acquafresca
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            He's been using FISO

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          2. Canadian Football
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 9 months ago

            i use fiso....fpl not as reliable.

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  28. Gaz Downright
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    @TM245: I'm not sure "nerding out" is the proper term when that is sort of our basis for fantasy existence. Anyway, ended up at 15.1cppgw. Most 2 pointers came from RVP - which is natural since most captaincies came from him as well.

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    1. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      15.3 for me. Suarez and RVP have let me down a few times between them!

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  29. Viper
    • 15 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Pog -> Remy, done!

    Watch him pull up with a dodgy hammy tomorrow!

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    1. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      And he rose! Good job 😎

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  30. Canadian Football
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 9 months ago

    Looks like RVP will be @ 13.7 by next week.....i have a feeling they are going to kill Reading next week.

    Cue massacre 6-0 RVP hattrick

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    1. SC not pearls before swine
      • 15 Years
      12 years, 9 months ago

      I dunno, I wouldn't be surprised to see his price rocket back up early next week. I know I'll be jumping back on.

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      1. In Like Flynn.
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        12 years, 9 months ago

        Wait for the FA Cup game just in case.

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