Great Expectations

Great Expectations – Seamus Coleman

In a season where four of the previous campaign’s top six clubs are set to have a new man in charge, Roberto Martinez’s arrival at Everton is one of the most intriguing appointments in the Premier League this summer. A new formation and style of play is anticipated from the Toffees which could potentially bring a handful of their assets onto our radars – with this in mind, Seamus Coleman is the first subject of our pre-season “Great Expectations” articles.

Under previous manager David Moyes, Everton rarely, if ever, shifted from their default 4-4-1-1 formation but Martinez’s penchant for a three-man defence should boosts Coleman’s prospects considerably. Likely to line up on the right of the midfield four, with Leighton Baines utilised on the opposite flank, the Republic of Ireland international looks a real out of position prospect across the Fantasy games next time out..

Key Factors

  • Classified as a midfielder last term in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, Coleman should this time be listed as a defender. His price is likely to remain kind – a cost similar to the previous season’s 5.0, or perhaps a slight increase to 5.5 looks on the cards given the Toffees resilience under Moyes in the final few months of 2012/13. With Baines expected to rise to 7.5, Coleman’s budget-friendly appeal looks set to offer strong value amongst the Everton defence if, as expected, Martinez rolls out a 3-4-3 formation.

  • Having fallen down the pecking order in 2011/12, Coleman re-established his position as a first-team regular last time out. His game time was slightly curtailed by hamstring and thigh problems in Moyes’ final term in charge, though with 24 of his 26 appearances coming courtesy of the first XI, he was more or less nailed on as the season unfolded – injury-free, he started each of the Toffees’ last 12 league fixtures in a run that harvested seven clean sheets, three assists and three bonus points.

  • Despite playing as a right-back, he afforded a decent level of creativity down the flank. Coleman supplied five assists over the course of the campaign – only two less than Baines, for example, despite the latter’s set-piece and corner duties, and the same number as Kevin Mirallas for the Toffees. While Baines was the number one defender for assists in FPL, only five other backline options provided more than Coleman, despite the fact he missed 12 of Everton’s league matches – even if Martinez begins with a four-man defence, then, there still looks plenty to be positive about when assessing Coleman’s chances.

  • His previous campaign as a midfielder – back in 2010/11 – highlights Coleman’s capabilities from a more advanced berth. Over 34 appearances, he found the net on four occasions and also supplied four assists, in addition to eight bonus points; with more top-flight experience behind him and license to bomb forward as Martinez looks to entertain, the 24-year-old could be primed for a significant Fantasy season before the inevitable reclassification as a midfield option for 2014/15.

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1,543 Comments Post a Comment
  1. stephenl15
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Following his tweet, what would Ronaldos ownership be if he came to United? Id say easily >60% regardless of price??

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    1. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I disagree, if he is priced correctly ownership will not be that high imo.

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Maximum price is 14m I believe, and considering RvP will be about 13.5m and everyone finds him essential...

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        1. Sheep
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          RVP's ownership peaked at 40% I think.

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          1. Al Pacino
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Ronaldo is on a different level to RvP though

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    2. Al Pacino
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Obviously, the 2nd best player in the world, it'd be incredibly stupid not to have him in your team. I'd say 75% + ownership

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      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Surely there has to be a point when his value outweighs his output.

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        1. Al Pacino
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          But I think people won't take the risk of not having him, for the start at least.

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          1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
            • 13 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            If he is valued at £15 - 16m then I'm going to consider starting without him.

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    3. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I guess he would be 14m. If he is valued more than that I probably would not get him.

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    4. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      His goal/assist record would make him essential. Captain material every week.

      Ironically RVP's ownership would plummet, as may lose set-piece and penalty duties.

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    5. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      RVP finished on 37.8% ownership, though he might have had higher ownership at periods, maybe around 50% max. Might be surprised to see Ronaldo around that mark.

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        This

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    6. stephenl15
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Second best player in the world. I agree with Adam, surely his points would outweigh whatever price he was? Especially if he's classed as a midfielder.

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      1. stephenl15
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        sorry, just re-read that. I'd be disagreeing with Adam then 😛

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        1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          No pleasing some people I guess ;).

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    7. r0nh
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      if Ronaldo joined an EPL team, he would be essential.

      No doubt about it.

      He would be my captain 95% of the time too.

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    8. Squeakybumtime
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      FFS lads he's score 33+ goals guaranteed. Id buy him at 16m

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  2. GreenWindmill
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Sporting Intelligence have published their 2013 report on average wages paid in the 2011/12 season. Full Premier League list of annual wages (weekly figures in brackets):

    1 Man City £5,239,750 (£100,764)
    2 Chelsea £4,058,742 (£78,053)
    3 Man Utd £3,921,987 (£75,423)
    4 Arsenal £3,666,158 (£70,503)
    5 Liverpool £3,356,639 (£64,551)
    6 Tottenham £2,628,000 (£50,538)
    7 Aston Villa £2,170,280 (£41,736)
    8 Sunderland £1,868,800 (£35,938)
    9 Newcastle £1,810,400 (£34,815)
    10 QPR £1,693,600 (£32,569)
    11 Everton £1,622,031 (£31,193)
    12 Fulham £1,579,131 (£30,368)
    13 Stoke £1,467,600 (£28,223)
    14 Blackburn £1,419,287 (£27,294)
    15 West Brom £1,416,200 (£27,235)
    16 Bolton £1,375,739 (£26,457)
    17 Wigan £1,109,600 (£21,338)
    18 Wolves £1,080,400 (£20,777)
    19 Swansea £1,022,000 (£19,654)
    20 Norwich £1,010,560 (£19,434)

    Not sure if this got posted previously, apologies if so. Also, apologies in advance for the formatting which is bound to go wrong...

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    1. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      It has been posted before.

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Or not, sorry, it was something similar. AV, QPR, Newcastle and Sunderland need to bow their heads in shame.

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        1. GreenWindmill
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Yep, although Newcastle did finish 5th that year so in a way the wages weren't out of kilter with performance.

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      2. GreenWindmill
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Fair enough, hadn't seen it myself so may reach a different audience this time 🙂

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    2. Manani
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      on the bottom of the list, they still on average make 1mil a year.

      crazy!

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      1. GreenWindmill
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Good work if you can get it 🙂

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    3. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Is this average wages per player? So number of players does not affect it?

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        😀

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      2. GreenWindmill
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Correct. Annual and weekly player averages.

        Villa stand out for me as surprisingly high.

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        1. isacki: full casual
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Ah sounds about right, was wondering why Arsenal were so high. Wonder where we rank on the total wage bill.

          I think we have a compressed wage structure with a modest top earner but reasonable low earners. And as you've seen not that deep a squad 😆

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          1. GreenWindmill
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Don't have those figures available unfortunately - I suspect it would put QPR even higher with their crazy squad size!

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    4. Home Run Baker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Teams ranked by £/pt (Premier clubs only of course):

      SWA 427
      NOR 442
      EVE 495
      WBR 592
      WIG 593
      STK 672
      TOT 702
      FUL 706
      MU 847
      NEW 849
      SUN 921
      ARS 966
      AVL 1018
      CHE 1041
      LIV 1058
      MC 1292
      QPR 1303

      Fine showings by SWA, NOR, EVE, WB, even WIG
      MC v similar to QPR !!

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    5. Chrissy Waddle - 2023/24
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Arsenal 4th... Goes against the theory that they don't pay well.

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  3. Conrad.
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    a) Montoya + Tello
    b) Van Rhijn + Morata (or Rodrigo, depending on who starts)
    c) Montoya + Morata + 2pt hit

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    1. LOCO ABREU
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      B for me

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      1. Conrad.
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        aye. i also already have DDG and Moreno. perhaps 3 spain Ds is too much.

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    1. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      If he hits the ground running and they keep Snoddy, Norwich are set to do quite well.

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      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I think Snoddy is likely to stay, but you're right, they need his quality. The price of those 2 will be crucial, i can see myself owning one or the other

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    2. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      A goal record better than 1 in 2 used as a target man. Is he basically an upgraded Grant Holt?

      http://www.soccerbase.com/players/player.sd?player_id=55754

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      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        He is vastly superior to Grant Holt in every way. Not least for the fact that he hasn't played for Rochdale

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        1. Squeakybumtime
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          And he's under 20 stone

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    3. pompeyfan
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      still not convinced he will be a success in the PL

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  4. /
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Look let's be honest with ourselves, if Ronaldo comes back, we're all gonna default (c) him every single week.

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    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      When I look at my history, barring the last 2 seasons, my best rank was 07/08 when I basically did just that, shoved the armband on him and just forgot about it

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    2. Conrad.
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      makes La Liga fantasy easier for me if CR goes. 😉

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  5. Form or Fixtures?
    Al Pacino
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Form or fixtures?

    A tough debate, with the decision always swaying. Who do you start? Who do you captain? Normally it's the latter that will be the main question, because if you captained your highest scoring player, how many extra points would you have? Probably 50+ really, I'm sure many of us missed out on Wally's rampage against Newcastle, or Suarez's 20 point haul just when it seemed like taking the armband off RvP was a sin.

    Case 1: RvP v Suarez

    RvP (GW 1-4): 1,9,15,1,6
    Suarez (GW 1-4): 1,5,2,6,2

    It's quite clear to see who has the better form, and with RvP's explosive 15 early on he looked set to continue it, after delivering at Anfield the previous week. However, Suarez was playing Norwich while RvP had Spurs. This is the battle of form or fixture. This round, fixture won.

    GW 5 - Suarez: 20, RvP: 5. While RvP's score wasn't bad, getting an assist, it doesn;t compare to Suarez's score, which turned out to be his highest of his entire season.

    Case 2: Bale v Benteke

    Bale (GW 25-29): 11,15,15,15,10,8
    Benteke (GW 25-29): 10,8,2,1,7

    Bale's incredible form meant that captaining anyone else for his game against Fulham would be foolish. But with Villa against QPR, it was Benteke who would deliver. Bale's 2 was rather unexpected and very disappointing, but once again shows that fixtures are key.

    I would like to point out that Bale's 10 was against Arsenal, and in the same gameweek RvP was home to Norwich, yet got only 5. This is to show that form prevailed as well as lost with Bale over the course of the season.

    Case 3: Suarez v RvP v Bale

    From GW8, these 3 had established themselves as key figures, and when it came to GW13, choosing a captain would prove to be tough but key. Liverpool v Swansea, MUN v QPR, Spurs v WHU. All fairly achievable in terms of a high points tally. Over the previous 5 weeks, Suarez has not scored lower than 5, with an average of 8.4. RvP came second with an average of 7.6, while Bale's 7.2 was still respectable. Form dictated Suarez, fixture dictated RvP. Turns out, both flopped. Bale walked away with 9, compared to the 2s from the others. This was to show that sometimes, nothing can help with making the right choice.

    Case 4: Lukaku v Sturridge v Bale

    Like Case 3, this shows what can go wrong. This decision cost 2nd place the FPL title, as they had Lukaku on the bench. In the previous 3, Lukaku had 2,2,2. His final game was against Man Utd, the champions. Yet he scores a hattrick, racking up 16 points and smashing Sturridge and Bale, who had both been touted as wonderful last day captains with both form and fixtures on their sides. Sturridge got a measly 2, while Bale got a respectable 10.

    I tried to find more cases of form beating fixtures, but when I looked at RvP or Baines, for example, comparing to others in those GWs it seems fixtures were better. For instance, Baines had 6,6,4,6 from GW30-33. In GW34 he got another 6, despite playing Arsenal. However, in the same gameweek Mertesacker got 15 and O'Brien got 10!

    In conclusion, it seems like fixtures are the way to go with deciding on captains and/or who to start. They seem to, generally, produce better outcomes, although form can be a good indicator of who to captain if both have a good game, because in this instance it does seem like the player on form gets a higher score.

    Thanks for reading, hope you like it 🙂

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    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      tl, dr 😛

      Will try

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        😆

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    2. Parm
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Form = Bring in

      Fixture = Captain

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        That's a solid strategy actually, although surely fixtures have to be taken into account for a player in form?

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    3. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      You're forgetting the third wheel – prior history.

      Suarez vs Norwich = bloodbath. 😉

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      1. Mavric Marco
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        If he's here to play the fixture, which he wont be 😉

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      2. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Hahah, must've had a bad childhood experience with canaries 😉

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    4. BMox81
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      You've been posting up some class posts.

      I'm probably a form over fixtures type of player myself.

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers, curiosity gets the better of me so i do research. After originally replying to somebody, it seemed people were interested so i shared again :).

        This is what sparked my interest, i believe it's a playing style trait too. While im a fixtures player, others prefer form. I wanted to see what statistics said, and thankfully it was in my favour. However this doesn't mean you're wrong at all, because as shown with Bale, incredible consistency and faith can have incredible rewards.

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    5. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Just gave it another read

      Super Stuff 😀

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Thank you, took me ages to find suitable comparisons :P. didnt want to compare 4 and 5, for example, because that doesn't show anything really. Had to find bigger margins to get the points across.

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    6. Mavric Marco
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Form over fixtures for me. Bale vs Man City just as he returned from injury. I rest my case 🙂

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Interesting point, but surely that means he had neither form nor fixture? His form would've been 0, and his fixture was obviously difficult. His 13 point haul (iirc) was impressive though, but it doesn't support either side IMO

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        1. Mavric Marco
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          I think with one or two exceptional players these 'rules' can be broken.

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    7. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Also, that form of Bale is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. Double figures week after week after week.

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I know! When i saw that i was shocked, then checked to make sure i had him for all those weeks (I did 😀 ). It's incredible how consistent some players can be, especially in the style Bale does it in, normally 25 yard belters late in the game.

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    8. GreenWindmill
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      When did you join the forums Al? I hope this kind of post is going to continue throughout the season.

      Personally I'm a sucker for fixtures - I think it's because they're slightly more concrete than the changeable form of players. I actually think I should allow myself to be swayed by form more often but I tend to talk myself round to thinking that player X is bound to dry up soon or that he got lucky in the previous couple of games. By the time I finally get persuaded it's genuine sustainable form the price has rocketed and I'm a truckload of points behind.

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      1. heco87
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Truck > Boat?

        I'm also a fixtures boy with a huge home bias.. but the big hitters scored better away last season on the whole I think.

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        1. GreenWindmill
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Hmm, 'truckload' sounds bigger but actually isn't 🙂

          Bale certainly did, not sure on others but it definitely happens more often than feels right to me when I'm setting my team up.

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          1. heco87
            • 13 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            RVP:

            Home - 12 goals, 8 assists
            Away - 14 goals, 7 assists

            Bale:

            Home - 8 goals, 3 assists
            Away - 13 goals, 6 assists

            Mata:

            Home - 3 goals, 7 assists
            Away - 8 goals, 11 assists

            Suarez:

            Home - 11 goals, 6 assists
            Away - 12 goals, 4 assists

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            1. Al Pacino
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 10 months ago

              Thank you, i was planning on looking at this too. It's amazing to see the similarity between home and away, i always thought players would score higher at home, since teams generally do better at home.

              Thanks for sharing this 🙂

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              1. heco87
                • 13 Years
                10 years, 10 months ago

                No worries, it's what cost me a lot of points last season with my captain picks! I'm sure some players are far superior at home but I also think of Cazorla's hat trick at Reading (although Walcott's was at home).

                Think I need to be more open to captaining a player away from home next season!

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          2. isacki: full casual
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            That is a pretty striking increase in goals away.

            You wouldn't expect it, conventional wisdom says teams look to sneak wins away. Maybe the counterattack.

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      2. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Two weeks ago. Im planning on, since the statistics and maths behind FPL is limitless and really interesting (to me, anyway). As im sure you know from TWS im a very maths based person, so i like to back up my strategies with numbers, since they're proven.

        I also feel that i can never rely on form, because i feel that the one week ill trust in form is when they start to dip. I feel that a team playing QPR is going to create chances regardless, whereas a team may shut out Bale for a game.

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    9. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Its a real tough one. Fixtures definitely make up my mind when it comes to the armband. Yes a good player could score well in a tricky away game...but the chances are they are more likely to do well in an easy home game. Form though is persuasive. I rarely captained RVP towards the end, as Man Utd's form dipped once they had the title sown up...even though some of their fixtures were great.

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Indeed, I've always found that an easy fixture gives me more assurance than a player who has scored well. Perhaps this season there was more emphasis on form, due to RvPs consistency until Christmas, and Bale's incredible run of form. Form, i believe, can only be relied on for the truly exceptional players.

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    10. Demí
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Really fantastic post. I don't think of it as a debate really as i take both into account. Generally, i prefer fixtures over form when looking at teams to keep a CS, and don't go with form when getting defenders. With attackers i prefer form over fixtures though. As the likes of Lambert, Lukaku and to an extent Benteke showed last season, they score against anyone in the league. Form is definitely important for forwards. Not so much for mids though, so i tend to like going with fixtures there, as they're more likely to chip in with assists even if they aren't in goalscoring form

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      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Hard to argue with this logic. Look at Norwich defenders last season as an example of this. Garrido went on a run, everyone got him, it dried up. Then likewise Bassong, then again with Martin (though more people caught this form) then Turner. You had to have the right defender at the right time. CS are a bit more predictable, especially when it came to Liverpool v any team from the bottom half.

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      2. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Form is definitely more of a factor for strikers, where confidence is everything. Once they start scoring they do tend to go on a roll.

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      3. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Cheers Demi :). That's a very good point, i agree that perhaps the only positions you can rely on form are forwards and a few midfielders (and Baines, that guy's a monster). I do agree that there's been a breakthrough with strikers, as this season it seems defences were a lot more fragile. Tough call to make, although the point you've raised is great and definitely worth taking into consideration.

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    11. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Top marks for effort though need more than 4 picked examples to generalize about form v fixtures. I think someone was working on that (maybe Roscola if I haven't completely made up hearing that??). This would involve systematic analysis of every GW instead of picked examples.

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I have to agree, to be perfectly honest i wasnt too sure on the approach, but i went with what could be used to analyse the question. A gameweek breakdown would be good, however i believe there would be countless anomalies within every GW that a relationship would be very difficult to interpret.

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        1. isacki: full casual
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah that's why you'd use all the gameweeks - any relationship should come out over the season with anomalies being smoothed out. Even more work though 😀

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          1. Al Pacino
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Ooft that'd take yonks! Maybe sometime during summer when im bored :P.

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    12. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      See the last sentence of case 3.

      Since none of us can see into the future we are all going to get it wrong some weeks. I think, though, that over the course of the whole season Form will score higher than fixtures.

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Indeed, i included them to assure people that my analysis wasnt 100% proven and that there is a margin of error. Obviously we can't predict anything, but by making comparisons and seeing patterns, we are able to place ourselves in as best a position as possible when making these decisions, meaning that we can make the correct decision more often than not

        Fair enough, i think form/fixtures is a player trait, depending on how people see FPL, which is really interesting.

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    13. Gaz Downright
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      While you can claim it's a matter of fixture, at the same time it might be deemed start of good form. It's a bit tricky this comparison. I'm still a form's man.

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      1. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Understandable, but in only one of those cases does the player that "won" the case go on to produce consistent returns for the following few gameweeks, which was Bentekkers.

        Form is a valid and reasonable way to lean, my post was merely to inform, not to change opinion 🙂

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        1. Gaz Downright
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Ah, it wasn't meant as critique to your post, which is very relevant.

          That being said, it's a very interesting dilemma - I might go as far as say it might even be somewhat of a bad habit within the FFS community as to always focus on form vs. fixtures. This might lead to an either or way of thinking, while instead it should be down to comparing the players in question taking into account a multitude of factors. I.e. not just form and fixture, but also player history, team history, etc.

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          1. Al Pacino
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Very true, perhaps deciding between these two may be oversimplifying the decision making. As mentioned by Demi, taking into account both is by far the best option, while accounting for it in different ways depending on positions. The rest of the team play a huge part, for example Sturridge's form increased once Suarez was banned, as he was the one getting the chances now. No form vs fixtures debate would help you with that 😛

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    14. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Also bit of cat amongst the pigeons, but Chris Glover doesn't seem to believe in form - not entirely with him on this one but food for thought: rhttp://premierleaguefantasy.blogspot.co.uk/2012/01/form-fallacy.html

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Great article.

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      2. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        That really is a good piece, very well written. However, despite being a fixture man, i disagree with the author. What do you call Bale's consistency other than form? This was also written at a time when defences were sturdier, with the likes of Kompany and Vidic being amongst the best in the world, so much so that people still rate them highly despite an average season from Kompany and a injury-plagued 2 seasons from Vidic. Nowadays you see the likes of United conceding 5 to WBA, Newcastle conceding 7 and 5, Tottenham conceding 5 etc.

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        1. isacki: full casual
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah the defending does appear to have got worse, or the attacking better, perhaps due to an expectation for attacking play as much as anything.

          I find it hard to believe form doesn't exist. Bale and RVP both had clear 'droughts' and 'harvests'. RVP went on a dry run in the final third of the season and Bale's was in the first third. In both cases they seemed to be struggling to make an impact, then the first goal opened the floodgates.

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          1. Al Pacino
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            I agree, i believe that confidence makes up the bulk of form, and without it the chances of scoring decrease significantly. His argument is trying to say that scoring the week before has little, if any, impact. I believe it has a lot, not only does it make that player more likely to get a full game, but that player is more comfortable and relaxed, because they know they can score.

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  6. Manani
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    new on SAF from bbc:

    1547:
    FOOTBALL
    Sir Alex Ferguson is marking his retirement by taking his whole family on a cruise of a lifetime - around Scotland, reports the Manchester Evening News.

    Former Manchester United boss Ferguson - who stepped down at the end of the season after 26 years in the post - has shunned the Caribbean and instead will sail from Oban to Iona taking in the Hebrides, North and South Uist as well as Benbecula.

    bet his family are well disappointed 😆

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    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Considering the money at his disposal it is like my dad retiring and taking us on a tour of our back garden

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      1. Brutus619
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        😀

        Open Controls
    2. Mavric Marco
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      The joys of being Scottish 🙂 🙄

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  7. heco87
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    28 from the over from Bopara ... nice way to finish. Yes, Bopara.. honestly.

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  8. Licky
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    It looks like Tiago Ilori's transfer value will skyrocket if he joins Liverpool.

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  9. SuperOsçarBaby
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Aston Villa top 10 next season.

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    1. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      😯

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      1. SuperOsçarBaby
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        they signed new a CB, new midfield, tonev, weimann signed a new contract and i hope benteke stay

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    2. Mavric Marco
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      If Benteke leaves then ide say bottom 5

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    3. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      If they actually sign a great center back maybe, but Lambert's defences are always leaky and that usually stops you from finishing in the top half.

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  10. Are Fulham players worth getting?
    Sheep
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Fulham are the team to watch next season. How much do you reckon Berba will be, or have too many of you been burned by him to care?

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    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I will always have a home for Berba in my team

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    2. Mavric Marco
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Berba = 6 / 6.5 IMO

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        😯 He was only 7m because of his United benched price. He's bound to rise, surely?

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        1. Mavric Marco
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Not for me. He had a poor end to the season and FPL always take that kind of thing into consideration.

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    3. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I think Berba's still got 10 or so goals a season in him. Penalties alone make him worthwhile. He's not in the premium category...an ok 7m striker that you'd never captain and when fixtures favour Fulham would be as good as it gets between me and the Bulgarian lothario.

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    4. Parm
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Berbatov should be around £8m.

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    5. heco87
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      7.5-8m I reckon..

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I'd so be on that if Fulham had nice fixtures.

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      2. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        At the moment none of the promoted teams have strikers that look worth getting so it looks like we are going to have to fork out big bucks for forwards this season coming.

        £8m for Berbs might be good value considering.

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        1. crystalpalaceRus
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          give it time man theres still 2 months to go

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          1. Nomar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Yes, but they will have to buy new strikers and so likely to be players that have never played for those clubs before. Or possibly in the Premier League for that matter.

            Either way it would have to be an early season gamble.

            Of the club's that went down only Kone will probably get sold to a Prem club so the talent pool is likely to be slim in the low to mid range striker bracket.

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        2. heco87
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah I agree.. expecting Cisse to be a similar price, if he stays - both potentially good options with a kind run of fixtures.

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    6. Bøwstring The Carp
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Never mind Berbatov. It's all about Kacaniklic next year. Bookmark this if you must 😉 Berbs will probably be around 7.5 I reckon unless Fulham sign someone of equal quality to him over the summer

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      1. Mavric Marco
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Do you think Kaca will get the game time? He did well for me early on in the season but I had to get rid because of his unsecurity.

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        1. Sheep
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          I think he will, his price will be inflated though.

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        2. Bøwstring The Carp
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          In my opinion he is one of Fulham's best players after Ruiz and they would be foolish not to play him. He's young and had a short loan spell to keep him at his best. I reckon he'll be about 5.0 and will easily get the LM place

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          1. Sheep
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            If he is 5.0m he's going to be a very popular player on this site. But given I just said that, the FPL Sauron eye has probably noticed and is upping his price as we speak 🙂

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            1. Bøwstring The Carp
              • 12 Years
              10 years, 10 months ago

              Between 5.0 and 5.5 I reckon. Because of his loan spell he might be 5.0 but he did make an impact towards the end of the season so he might see 5.5

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      2. SW6
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I agree with this, should be Kaca's season this year. We'll likely sign another winger judging by all the transfer rumours but he'll get a lot of gametime. The time on loan in the middle of the season really helped him. Liverpool must still be kicking themselves for the deal that gave us him + £1m for Konchesky

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    7. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I'd be interested in Ruiz if he gets re-classified

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Same, but I highly doubt he will be re-classified.

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    8. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      If Stekelenburg is 5m, he is straight in my team as well.

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      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Issue with him is rotation. His perfect rotation would be Cech, but you're not gonna pick him, so it depends on who is lower down the order. Kinda like that early season Bego/Foster rotation, or the Krul/Vorm rotation from the year before

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        1. Sheep
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          I only need good rotation til January, not the whole season. I'm sure some other keeper will present themselves he match up reasonably well.

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    9. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      He's got to see a bit of a price increase doesn't he after his success last season? Not sure if they're going to take age into account... 8m should be on the cards.

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Yep, I'm expecting 8m 🙂

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  11. Bøwstring The Carp
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Villa sign Jores Okore from FC Nordsjaelland for £4mil. The 20 year-old defender was a Chelsea target

    http://www.avfc.co.uk/page/NewsDetail/0,,10265~3208897,00.html

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    1. Bøwstring The Carp
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      http://www.avfc.co.uk/page/NewsDetail/0,,10265~3208897,00.html

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Don't worry trout, we'll just highlight and copy and paste.

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      2. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Big signing. The timing of this is a huge coincidence given the discussion we just had above 😯

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      3. ★FC Borecelona★
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        http://www.avfc.co.uk/page/NewsDetail/0,,10265~3208897,00.html

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        1. Open Controls
    2. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      * According to a newspaper who are known to lie from time to time he may or may not have been a Chelsea target.

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    3. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Can't even beat babyy 🙄

      😛

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  12. Mavric Marco
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Right, I'm off boys..It's the mother-in-laws birthday today *Gulp*

    Hopefully when I return I will have a Grav...? 🙂

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  13. isacki: full casual
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    As pointed out one way to resolve the fixtures v form dilemma is to consider both. That's the approach of a site familiar to quite a few people here, especially since the creator ran a mini series of Moneyball articles halfway through last season. PL Fantasy (http://premierleaguefantasy.blogspot.co.uk/) has, for every GW, predictions of goals conceded and goals scored by each team in each fixture. These are worked out from the average shots conceded and shots made by the teams concerned over the recent past.

    I used it to decide which defenders to play. I didn't use it to decide who to captain, as while team stats are great for team achievements like CS, they aren't so great for individual achievements like goals scored by a particular player.

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    1. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Always consider both. Try to captain one that has both, and is a quality player. Easy game 😎

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      1. isacki: full casual
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah I'm starting to realize this game is about maximizing your probability while fully accepting on an individual GW basis things can go wrong. You're playing the long game.

        Jonah who didn't take a hit in something like 3 seasons is a good example of that, though personally I'm very very partial to hits.

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        1. Sheep
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Taking few hits almost guarantees you a good rank as long as you have your head on straight. It's much more fun to take hits though, and you can still get the top ranks by doing so.

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          1. isacki: full casual
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Yeah I fully agree, hits are much more fun and because y'know I play the game for fun... it's an easy decision 😆

            My plan is roughly to have a team with maximum flexibility transfer-wise (lots of alternative players in each price bracket) so I can make GW-by-GW transfers based on fixture analysis.

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            1. Sheep
              • 11 Years
              10 years, 10 months ago

              Good plan Jol, the trouble is RVP, Bale etc are going to restrict your plan for varying prices over the other slots. Unless you ditch one...

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              1. isacki: full casual
                • 12 Years
                10 years, 10 months ago

                Actually in my view players from worse teams are more fixture dependent, and they're also cheaper, so where this would really come useful is in the cheaper brackets - budget strikers and midfielders (6-7m).

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                1. Sheep
                  • 11 Years
                  10 years, 10 months ago

                  Genius, I'm in.

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                  1. isacki: full casual
                    • 12 Years
                    10 years, 10 months ago

                    Just don't kill me if you end up selling Snodgrass before he scores a brace 😉

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                2. heco87
                  • 13 Years
                  10 years, 10 months ago

                  Agreed.

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  14. Messimerized- Join My FPL L…
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Aston Villa have confirmed the signing of Dutch U21 midfielder Leandro Bacuna from Groningen on a three-year deal.

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    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Good on you Villa. These are the kind of signings we should have been making at QPR when we were in the Premier League.

      Makes me so depressed to see other clubs doing things the right way.

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  15. Messimerized- Join My FPL L…
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Cavani’s mother: “He's negotiating with Manchester City and Real Madrid, but there’s not Chelsea.” 😯

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  16. Bøwstring The Carp
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Mohammed Ali ‏@mohammedali_93

    Le10Sport: Monaco and Zenit in advanced discussions for Hulk - contract agreed (€8m/y) - fee about €45m.

    http://www.le10sport.com/football/mercato/exclu-mercato-monaco-hulk-cest-chaud-108129

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    1. heco87
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Man, they're putting together an insane team. They're about to come knocking for Cabaye according to a few..

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      1. Bøwstring The Carp
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Will be interesting to see how all these players gel as a team (or rather will they?). They're looking for Ivanovic and Evra too but not quite sure I see that happening

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        1. heco87
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Yeah, you'd imagine they'll cope alright, with PSG in the season gone, another example of superstars thrown together in Ligue 1.

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      2. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I'd love Cabaye at OT in all honesty, but I';m not sure that a creative mid is necessarily what we need. But he's a fabulous player.

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        1. heco87
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          I think he'd fit in well.. proper CM. Good player when the team is playing well but goes missing when the team is struggling.. which shouldn't be much of a problem for you.

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          1. JK - Cønt ⭐
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            but how is his tackling?

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            1. heco87
              • 13 Years
              10 years, 10 months ago

              Better than Scholes' 😉

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              1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                10 years, 10 months ago

                😛

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    2. Pratik
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      This will be a brilliant team to play in fifa 14....But I'm pretty sure I am not gonna even watch a single match of theirs.

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  17. Messimerized- Join My FPL L…
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Representatives of Chelsea defender David Luiz have met PSG sporting director in Paris recently.

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    1. Gaz Downright
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      always helps to link

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        1. Gaz Downright
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          *to the source

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  18. FACUPARSE
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Ronaldo won't be coming back to the premiership.

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    1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Its not beyond the realms of possibility I think Ronaldo is capable of making his situation in Madrid untenable much like Mourinho did if he wanted to.

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  19. Avoid Arsenal early on due to CL qualifiers?
    r0nh
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Avoid Arsenal players?

    As Arsenal have a CL qualifier on 20th & 27th August, does this mean we should stay away from their players as the start of the season?

    If I remember correctly, the last time they had to play that qualifier, this is what happened:

    - Newcastle 0-0
    - CL qualifier 1-0
    - Liverpool 0-2
    - CL qualifier 2-1
    - Man Utd 2-8

    Something to consider anyway.

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    1. /
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I don't know who you are anymore

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        He's such a people pleaser 🙂 What do upvotes or stickies really matter at the end of the day, they don't affect your personal experience on this site as we are all unaware of our scores and our voting impact. It's all invisible.

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    2. heco87
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Tough fixtures in there too, to be fair.

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    3. Bøwstring The Carp
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Is this really Ronh? 😀

      Im trying not to plan a team until the last minute to see who they bring in. Walcott is the only player I would consider next season

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      1. FACUPARSE
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Cazorla was great last season...

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        1. Bøwstring The Carp
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          He was, but I see him getting more of a price inflation than Walcott and I like the fact that Walcott can sometimes be used as a striker.

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      2. r0nh
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Arsenal had the second best defense

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    4. FACUPARSE
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Arsenal will start great next season...

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    5. r0nh
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Green 😎

      My life is complete.

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      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        The second time I've Hulked you this week. 🙂

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        1. r0nh
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          I always told you scouts I had potential 😆

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    6. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      That is a great point. Certainly makes rotation early on very likely. Good research as well.

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    7. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Good call RonH, showing your Arsenal onions. Team was in a state though after a summer of sales, think that contributed too.

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  20. /
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    I've been trying for 3 days to think up an insightful, thought provoking, sticky bound comment, but I just can't come on up with anything.

    Those who have been stickied, any tips?

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    1. Home Run Baker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Cut-and-paste something from the internet 😉

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      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        🙂

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    2. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Just be yourself Towelie, don't let yourself be moulded by others. I wasn't trying to and I got a sticky and a hot topic today 😯

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      1. /
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Sticky and hot are different things? 😯

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        1. Sheep
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Sticky is just green, and hot topic is a stickied up post with a title that gets shoved on the right hand side.

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    3. /
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      *come up

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Or try to think of a tough question we are all going to have to face and they'll make it a hot topic 😉

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    4. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      😆 I love the mod that stickied all over this post 😀

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    5. /
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Stickied!!

      😯

      😎

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    6. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I've actually stickied this....as it is generating some good advice about penning a post that'll get flagged up by a mod.

      Something that's is likely to generate a lot of discussion or has some interesting research about fantasy football is a contender for hot topic or a sticky.

      Stickies can also be handed out for these type of posts which are worth raising the profile of when searching by sticky.

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      1. /
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        😯

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        1. Sheep
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Good work Towelie, that was a great thought-provoking post 🙂

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          1. /
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            😎

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      2. SPorting
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Too busy stickying stuff to reply to my email Jonty?

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        1. SPorting
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Guess so.

          Shame that.

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        2. J0E
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Just emailed you. Was next on my list after that last flurry of stickying.

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      3. The Finnisher
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Be honest Jonty - you wanted him to be quiet 🙂

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    7. SPorting
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Sorry Towelie but.........Worst. Sticky. Ever.

      No thought provoking insights and, worse still, no answers. Nothing of merit here.

      Just a begging letter.

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      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Definitely worth a sticky for the reasons above as some of the responses are giving the community a useful insight into the kind of posts that the mods look to sticky and hot topic.

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        1. SPorting
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Sorry, just don't see any worthy replies here.

          I can't imagine that if I asked how to get a Hot Topic that it would become one.

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  21. SuperOsçarBaby
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    New signing from Barcelona: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMpygwaCIAEZOR_.jpg:large

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  22. /
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Man City are the team to watch next season. How much do you reckon Aguero will be, or have too many of you been burned by him to care?

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    1. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      😉

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    2. SW6
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      £11m I think

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    3. SuperOsçarBaby
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      10.5m? I'm considering him or Silva as my City coverage.

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  23. isacki: full casual
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Mistake that definitely bugged me the most last season was questioning players because of age. I missed out on hauls from the likes of Lampard, Berba and RVP in particular because I had this vague notion in the back of my head that they had already peaked. Do players really peak before 30 meaning ever-diminishing returns afterwards?

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    1. r0nh
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I recall Zola & Gary McAllister...

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      1. isacki: full casual
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Zola yes, boom. His goalscoring increased and was very consistent from the 96/97 season onwards... when he was ALREADY 30. Those 14 goals in 38 appearances in his final season when he was 36 are a bit incredible. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gianfranco_Zola

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    2. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      You are the best poster on this site. A testament to the phrase 'quality over quantity'.

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      1. isacki: full casual
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Too many good posters here to choose from, but cheers for making the hours worthwhile.

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    3. Home Run Baker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      There is a notion in sport that performance peaks at age 27 - not all sports (not golf for example), but that's an age often quoted for more athletically-demanding sports. I think it's more likely a plateau, and certainly different for different players - but perhaps an age range 25-30? The peak is due to a balance of athletic ability vs. experience. Presumably some players (e.g. Lampard) are better able to exploit their experience; some (e.g. Giggs) have extraordinary athletic longevity.

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      1. isacki: full casual
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Yeah in football I view 27-29 as peak years (see, got some deep problem with the number 30...). Quite a narrow window yes where experience and athleticism combine. Have to agree with you on those outliers like Lamps and Giggs.

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        1. isacki: full casual
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Ah there we are - someone's analyzed it.

          http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/age-performance-football

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  24. Home Run Baker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    I'm not convinced by the highly-rated "Form vs Fixtures" post above.

    First off, it's easy to find examples that illustrate a point. For each of the 'point sequences' chosen in the post that make a particular point, one could equally find a sequence that illustrates the opposite point.

    Secondly, I am not sure how valid the concept of 'form' really is. If one tosses a coin a hundred times, there is a very good likelihood that you'll get 5 or 6 heads in a row. That's not 'form', that's randomness and it certainly doesn't predict the outcome of the next toss. The same could be true for FPL scores. Bale, for example, might have 20 scores >6 in the year - by pure random chance, several of those will come in sequence. That's not form, that's randomness.

    Sorry to throw cold water on what was, I agree, a good read.

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    1. r0nh
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I'm not sure what to think yet.

      I will wait to see how others react before determining my opinion 🙂

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    2. Chazza
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      This is an example of overly statistical analysis IMHO. Football is not just about players having some level of ability which will produce a certain number of goals over a season at random times. There is such thing as 'form,' for example, as strikers build confidence as they score more goals and it's a cycle of positive feedback. It can also work the opposite way with Torres's and RVP's infamous goal droughts coming to mind.

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      1. Pratik
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        +1

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      2. Home Run Baker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        You're right of course. But it's also a mistake to attribute variation/trends to form, when there is clearly a luck factor. Probably best to realize that both are involved 🙂

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        1. Chazza
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          I agree, that post only looks at points- which is what counts at the end of the day, but is not an account of 'true' form in my opinion. This is where I think it's best to watch the actual football being played and see who's played well- even if that didn't come to fruition fantasy-wise, it could well do in future. This is also something I think Kelvin Travers (who ended up finishing 2nd) alluded to.

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          1. isacki: full casual
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Whole new topic in itself whether watching football contains information stats cannot capture. Despite being generally a stats man I've found watching games essential if you want to move up the ranks. I find myself making judgments about players that surely are very difficult to quantify, such as energy, attitude, etc. Switching RVP for Rooney before his drought was based on me and JK watching him.

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      3. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        It varies from character to character as well. Rooney for example, is strongly dependant on confidence(form).

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    3. Gaz Downright
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      It's a good read, but I'm not sure everybody outright agreed with the suggested conclusion.

      Comparing players to coins though, you risk over-simplifying. There are many not random factors tied to players - needless to say perhaps?

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    4. 4vets
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I agree. I think what you can say is a confident player playing for a good team against a weak opposition is more likely to do well.Players also develop as the season goes on and this also, obviously, has an effect.

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    5. Al Pacino
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      😮

      Nah kidding, i appreciate this. I mentioned in the post that i tried to find more to illustrate form, but for each attempt bar one, which was included, there was always another player with a better fixture that had done a lot better. Im sure there are more, but at this current time im not willing to dedicate that much time to find them. That's why i added the ambiguous cases, to indicate that im not trying to sell an idea to anyone, it's just sharing my findings from my own personal research (I mentioned why i did it in the first place in one of the comments).

      Flipping a coin is completely different. A coin has a 50:50 split (or 51:49 technically 😉 ), whereas goalscorers have much greater or less chance of scoring, depending on how the value is determined.

      Thank you for sharing though, all opinions are welcome, and if you can't take criticism then you shouldn't be on a forum 🙂

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    6. Pratik
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      There's only so much one can attribute to randomness.....There is a high level of probability for an event to happen, and when that happens it cannot be called a random event.

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      1. chilin_dude
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Disagree strongly. In everyday events, and in football so much is about short term variation and randomness, we just like to look for logic & reason behind most things in life because to have something else outside of our control makes us feel weak and lost. There is a very interesting book on randomness, and how people refuse to accept it, attributing times of good luck as skill, yet times of bad luck as just that - bad luck. The human ego is a bad thing.
        http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Chance-Markets/dp/0141031484

        What I'm trying to say is, we can try and find patterns and there will be them at some level, but the level of reliability in them isn't that high. See the article about Jarvis creating more key chances than Theo yet ending way behind on the assist scale.
        So much is about randomness, it is understated, not overstated, imo.

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        1. Home Run Baker
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Love that book by the way. And completely agree with your point.

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          1. chilin_dude
            • 13 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Glad someone else is a fan of it, I love reading stuff like this, its frustrating when people seem to attribute everything down to their own skill or bad luck, but can't do vice versa!

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        2. Dino
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Rediculous hypothesis imo

          There is such a thing as skill otherwise every striker woukd score at the same cinversion rate and get the same and get the same amount of assists from key passes. The reason besides luck is that some players are more skilful than others therefore score with a higher percentage of attempts.

          Also your point re jarvis is terrible also and shows the deficiencies in the statistical approach to fpl as the quality of chances walcott created and the quality of player he created them for are not taken into account in the statistics.

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          1. chilin_dude
            • 13 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Not saying there is no such thing as skill at all! I'm saying there is skill, but there is also a higher influence of luck/variation than you're willing to see. Say if you believe its 80% skill 20% luck I'd side more 60% skill 40% luck for example.
            After Suarez 1st season where he hit the post tonnes and everyone was panning him was he an awfull player? No, the difference between woodwork and a goal is minute, this season has shown this, its not that he suddenly developed overnight, its mainly just variance - 1st season negative variation, this season positive variation.

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        3. Al Pacino
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          In my personal opinion, you make your own luck.

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    7. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      It's certainly an interesting topic. Here's what I would do (and I would if I had time).

      Analyze 3 players - RVP, Suarez and Bale.

      Go over each gameweek and rank each one of them in terms of which player had the best form (3 prior weeks), and which had the best fixture. See what score they got and chalk points for form or for fixture. If one player had both form and fixture and got the top score, chalk 1 for both. Weeks where the player who had neither and still won can be discarded as anomalies.

      At the end, there should be a tally which will rank up which is more important. Form or fixture.

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      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        If nothing else, it would give you an indication of who is the better captain to pick on a given day if it's a straight toss up between form and fixtures.

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      2. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        That's a very interesting way to approach it, i may look to do something similar actually, good suggestion :).

        No doubt someone would say it's too closed because there's only a few players :P.

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    8. Dino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Reply fail home run

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  25. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    i agree on that. people thinking that Chelsea will tear it up may be in for a surprise. with Pellegrini in charge, i think city will play expansive football and Aguero will be a must have as the season progresses.

    Not to mention the city defense which has been great value in the past 2 seasons. a city defender would be must post Christmas as well.

    As far as the midfield is concerned, i will be really interested in Isco if he arrives. he has got goals in him and will be more prolific than Silva i guess.

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    1. pundit of punts
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      *reply fail to Towelie.

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    2. Parm
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I think the value in City defenders will decline, if Pellegrini is planning to play expansive football they'll be more exposed at the back. I do, however think the City attack will be much more profitable, with Pellegrini opting to attacking rather than the Mancini 1-0 tactic.

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      1. Dino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I am not sure pelegrini expansive football will lead to a worse defensive record parm. http://www.football-espana.net/26982/pellegrini-versus-mourinho

        the link above states that on dec the 19th of whatever year malaga had the best def record in liga. I have not looked at his def record in detail but my impression is they will play like Southampton under pochetino except with better players and southampton looked pretty impressive defensively on the run in.

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  26. LOCO ABREU
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Is Insigne fine for saturday or still injured?

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  27. Sheep
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    These are graphs from the article Isacki linked above:
    http://www.bettingexpert.com/assets/images/blog/MarkTaylor/GoalScoringAge.jpg - Who is 26? 🙂
    http://www.bettingexpert.com/assets/images/blog/MarkTaylor/OutfieldersAge.jpg - Goodbye Lampard.

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    1. Home Run Baker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Clear lesson - avoid 28-year-old strikers 🙂

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      1. isacki: full casual
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        😆

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      2. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        "Percentage of strikers goals scored by age group" Does this mean it will be naturally low if there are many strikers in that age group? If so, that first graph is useless 😀

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        1. isacki: full casual
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Nah think it's simpler, count goals scored by each age group and express as percentage of total goals.

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          1. Sheep
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            Good point. Once again...

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      3. Al Pacino
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        More like avoid 20 year old strikers 😛

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        1. Home Run Baker
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          True dat

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    2. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Boom, and there's the proof in the pudding eh? Both graphs peak between 26 and 27, consistent with the idea athletic ability peaks at 27.

      Trying to decide if the slight goalscoring peak at 32 represents any hope for the geriatric, or if it's all Berbatov 😆

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  28. 4vets
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Hrrrmm... not too sure I'm comfortable with the way that posts and replies just disappear from here as they are removed by mods. Issues should be outed and seen/discussed by all the community even when they aren't favourable to FFS as that is the way improvement occurs and the community becomes aware of issues.

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    1. Sheep
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      I'd like for the community to decide what they want and don't want based on upvotes and downvotes, but I can't see that happening.

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      1. Sheep
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        There is always the report button for offensive posts that need to be removed.

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        1. 4vets
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Indeed... it's all just a bit too censorious for my liking.

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          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            10 years, 10 months ago

            +42. Very well said! 😀

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      2. /
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        I thought that's how it was going to work, like if a comment gets so many downvotes, say -5, then it would automatically get removed

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        1. Sheep
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          It never gets that chance.

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        2. 4vets
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          But that's equally crap. I want to see what the WHOLE community thinks, good and bad.

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    2. SW6
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Did the same thing not happen before with the old system?

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      1. 4vets
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        Not often as it usually screwed the board.

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    3. isacki: full casual
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      Thinking about it, the fact that not a single post (as far as I'm aware of) has been removed due to downvoting means that people have been self-censoring based on downvotes.

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      1. 4vets
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 10 months ago

        But what about the posts that have been removed by mods even when not downvoted?

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        1. isacki: full casual
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 10 months ago

          Don't know how many have happened, probably not too many. I saw one on launch day. Not sure if they have a post removed message anymore (which is the sensible approach, ha).

          Not that I necessarily agree with self-censorship, I think it's actually more powerful than censorship.

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  29. ★FC Borecelona★
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 10 months ago

    Haven't seen a reply fail since HC went live! 😯

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    1. 4vets
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 10 months ago

      For you personally?

      If not look up a few posts to Pundits 🙂

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