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28 September 2014 2999 comments
Paul Paul
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Our first members article of the week delves into the data of the nine matches played out so far. A number of forwards come under assessment this evening, with Liverpool, United and West Ham’s new frontmen all analysed, whilst we also take a look at City’s resurgent Bosnian, Chelsea’s midfield and Swansea’s worrying lack of impact in the final third.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

  1. Sunny 😎
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Pick 2 to play -

    PVA, Bertrand, Naylor, Moore

    I'm on PVA and Moore right now

    1. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Top of the page 😎

    2. mipola
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      PVA,Naylor

    3. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      PVA,Naylor.

      1. Sunny 😎
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Moore against goal less Burnley..no?

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Leicester have the worst defense in the PL at the moment

          1. Sir Michael Taker
            • 11 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            Arguably if you can't play Moore against Burnley at home you will never play him barring injuries

            1. BigManBakar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              11 years, 4 months ago

              That's why I suggest not getting him in the first place, unless you can't afford someone above 4 million

              1. Sunny 😎
                • 13 Years
                11 years, 4 months ago

                Leicester have played the all the big boys and to be fair Palace have been really strong offensively but still needed goals from set-pieces

                I have played Moore once against Stoke so far and he got a clean sheet there. I can see your point as it might be safer to play Naylor but I won't write off Leicester defence after the fixtures that they've had..

                1. BigManBakar
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  11 years, 4 months ago

                  Sorry for the late reply..Just saw this, but Leicester were very lucky to come up with the clean sheet against Stoke in that match. They conceded 15 shots inside the box in that match 😯

                  They were poor against Palace the other day as well, but you're right Burnley(H) is the ideal fixture for any defense at the moment

                  1. Sunny 😎
                    • 13 Years
                    11 years, 4 months ago

                    No worries pal 🙂

                    Something to keep me occupied for the rest of the week as I've already made my transfers 🙂

                    1. BigManBakar
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 12 Years
                      11 years, 4 months ago

                      😀

              2. Sir Michael Taker
                • 11 Years
                11 years, 4 months ago

                For what its worth (not a lot haha) I'd rate Leicester's chance of a clean sheet higher than Swansea's against Newcastle but obviously being a full back NTaylor has some attacking potential.

                1. BigManBakar
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  11 years, 4 months ago

                  I reckon both have a fairly equal chance, lets see how it goes. If I had both, I'd play Naylor just because of his attacking threat as you mentioned 😀

  2. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Morning guys! Which one would you prefer as I've no free transfer left:

    A) Bench Ramsey and play Cattermole
    B) Ramsey to Silva for a hit
    C) Ramsey to Tadic for a hit

    9.4 available for Ramsey replacement.

    1. crteer
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      C

    2. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      C

    3. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      B or C whichever you prefer. I like Tadic more

    4. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      So Tadic over Silva it is?

  3. Billy Gilmore
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Ahem...bottomed out

    Have the perfect amount of money for these moves for 2 FTs, don't think I'll be able to resist if Sturridge is fit. Don't think Rooney will survive the drop long enough to afford it though 😐

    Caulker and Rooney –> Naylor and Sturridge

    1. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Sturridge will be eased in, won't get 90 minutes straight away. I'd resist the temptation!

      1. Billy Gilmore
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Well it depends on whether he plays a part against Basel. If he comes off the bench there then he'll start on the weekend.

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Can't say for sure, may be given 30 minutes off the bench

          1. Billy Gilmore
            • 13 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            It's alright, we'll get bib theory anyway 🙂

            1. BigManBakar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              11 years, 4 months ago

              But it won't come out before Friday 🙁
              Rooney may drop by then

              1. Billy Gilmore
                • 13 Years
                11 years, 4 months ago

                That's the worry. Could always get PVA/other 4.5m defender instead of Naylor.

                C'mon hang in there, piggy

                1. BigManBakar
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  11 years, 4 months ago

                  PvA's fixtures 😯

                  1. Billy Gilmore
                    • 13 Years
                    11 years, 4 months ago

                    I know...

    2. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Good Moves! when is Sturridge returning?

    3. Nabs Kebabs
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      i'd do it.

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        This.

        I think Sturridge might get a cameo or nothing in the CL game, BR bought Balotelli for CL...didn't he? I mean you would know better being the Pool fan.

        I reckon he'll start against West Brom, you guys need him...won't get the full 90 but it'll be enough for him to do damage.

    4. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Studge won't be starting next weekend with the international break coming imo, he'll be eased in.

      1. crteer
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        As a Liverpool fan, Studge getting injured on international duty and then returning the week of the start of the international break is actually heart wrenching..

        1. Sunny 😎
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          That's why I think Rodgers won't get Studge back in for the WBA game

    5. Koflok
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      do it

  4. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Asked this in my quiz yesterday, no one got it right. Would be interesting to see how the DZ fares:

    (i) How many goalkeepers have scored an own goal this season?
    (A) 0 (B) 1 (C) 2 (D) 3 (E) 4

    (ii) Which goalkeeper has made the most number of saves in the PL this season?
    (A) Speroni (B) Mannone (C) Adrian (D) Schmeichel (E) Green

    (iii) Which of these defenders had a 90% or more pass completion rate last season?
    (A) Jagielka (B) Cahill (C) Sakho (D) Both A and B (E) All A,B and C

    (iv) Which forward recorded the most number of assists last season?
    (A) Suarez (B) Lambert (C) Rooney (D) Giroud (E) Lukaku

    1. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      A
      A
      A

      1. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Whoops didnd't see the both blah blah

        E for the 2nd last

        1. Arvin-ation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Adrian not Speroni 😥

    2. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      B
      D
      A

    3. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      C
      D
      D

    4. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      B
      D
      C

    5. nedfoo
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      E
      E?
      C?

    6. Nabs Kebabs
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      a a d a

    7. mipola
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      D
      D
      A

    8. Billy Gilmore
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      A
      E
      A

    9. Geordienufc1
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      E
      C
      A

      1. BigManBakar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        you participated in the quiz yesterday so you don't count!!

        1. Geordienufc1
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Fair enough 😛

    10. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Alright lads, so this question has stumped the entire FFS community! Here are the answers

      A)0
      E)Green
      C)Sakho
      A)Suarez

      1. Billy Gilmore
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I knew that Sakho had. Just assumed that Cahill would have as well 😐

        I swear someone mentioned on the last page that Speroni had the most saves...grrr

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Haha, you could have checked FPL for that 😆

      2. Sunny 😎
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Just Sakho out of those 3 😯

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          There's always a trick question thrown in there 😀

        2. Billy Gilmore
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Yep, 92.5%

          Cahill was 88%, Jags 87%

          1. Sunny 😎
            • 13 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            I was so convinced Jags would have had more than 90%

    11. crteer
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A
      B
      D
      A

  5. nedfoo
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    On WC, please vote

    A) Schmeichel & Wisdom

    B) Foster & Moore

    Keeping in mind that keeper will have to play every week

    1. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I prefer A

    2. Patty
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      B

      1. Sir Michael Taker
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        A

    3. Moe Milan
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      B

    4. Kevin Twine
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      B.

  6. andres
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Team looks fairly good, need to use at least one of my FTs. Moreno/ Pieters out?

    Forster (Mccarthy)
    moreno moore naylor (clyne pieters)
    Adm fabs sterling siggy (boyd)
    Falcao costa pelle
    2FT, 0.2

  7. Moin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    This Weekend I will go and watch United play Everton...Sad Rooney is not gonna play...United should Better Win against Everton!

    1. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      You're in Manchester? 😯

      1. Moin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Nah..getting a super long weekend in India..so going was going to London with family...why miss the opportunity to watch a match!

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Oh I see, same case in Pakistan for Eid holidays 😀

          Great idea, enjoy the trip!

          1. Moin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            thanks!

  8. Who Ate All Depays?
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Should I do Ramsey -> Silva/Mata/Siggy for -4 or play Moore (against Burnley) ?

    1. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      play Moore..

    2. Puyol Pants Up
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Moore

    3. Who Ate All Depays?
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      thanx guys

  9. Aussie_Toon_Lad
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Hey lads this is my current team with 1FT and 0.2itb

    Krul, Gilks
    Clyne, Pieters, Taylor, Kaboul, Ferdinand
    Di Maria, Sterling, Ramsey, Siggy, Zaha
    Costa, Rooney, Pelle

    Proposed trades:
    Rooney -->> Aguero
    Ramsey -->> Downing

    This leaves 1.9 itb for Kaboul or Pieters to Baines next week. Good trades?

    1. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Most definitely.

      1. Aussie_Toon_Lad
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        thanks mate, just hate taking hits

        1. BigManBakar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Would be worth it, but I prefer Chadli to Downing.

  10. Puyol Pants Up
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Who else is taking a punt on Downing? I personally prefer Tadic but can't afford him. Not liking Chadli or Mane either.

    1. Aussie_Toon_Lad
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I think he's gonna be my ramsey replacement, 20 shot assists this season. level with fab.

    2. Darth
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Better change your grav then

      1. Puyol Pants Up
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Eh, Its probably going to only be a 1 Game punt since I plan to use my WC next GW. Plus I need a pun for Downing!

  11. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Here are the answers:

    A)0
    E)Green
    C)Sakho
    A)Suarez

    For more of the same, don't forget to join in @11AM BST today, four hours from now!

  12. Why not take a hit for a defender?
    Costa Nostra
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Trying to figure out the thinking on this forum. I always read "don't ever take a hit for a defender". Now, I can kinda understand that since even if you get a clean sheet it's a 6 (or less if no CS) and considering the transfer out is only getting a 2 maybe (all hypothetical of course), that's a break even (or worse) after the -4. But what if the D scores a goal, gets a CS and some bonus ? Was it a good choice to not make that move and take the hit?

    What if you made your FT and picked up a D , then you find out you have to replace an injured F or Mid and it's going to cost you a hit....is that OK then? If it is, it's no different than using your FT on a F or Mid and then taking the hit on the D. You see what I'm saying? 2 moves is 2 moves regardless of what order you made them, so I don't think everyone's golden rule of "never take a hit for a D" should apply. I think some/most of the transfer advice on if you should or shouldn't make a move because it will cost you a hit should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Maybe I'm missing something here, but to me I say make your moves and take your hits IF your convinced it is for the better of your team for the current week and future weeks to come.

    Ok rant over.

    1. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      How often will a defender score a goal though..

      But i get your point and agree that we can take all the advice we want but at the end of the day we should make our own choices

      I did Rooney to Falcao even after getting the advice to get Aguero/Pelle. This a game which needs to be enjoyed.

      1. Costa Nostra
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I actually ditched Dier last week for Bertrand... Not only did it pay off big time with a goal (and nearly a CS), it looks like it will be a great move going forward as Dier did not even start. If I would have followed the golden rule of not taking a hit for a D, I'd really be in a pickle .

        1. Sunny 😎
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          I also got rid of Colo for Bertrand for a hit and got rewarded but how often does that happen is the point

        2. Sunny 😎
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Long term transfer for a defender is worth a hit imo

          1. Costa Nostra
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            I agree. But obviously there's those other guys who don't! Lol !

    2. Billy Gilmore
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      In hindsight the goal/assist will look worth it, but they're rare. Defenders generally average 3-4 PPG with MUCH less potential for hitting double figures compared to attackers.

      Of course long term improvements can definitely be worth hits, even if not repaid immediately.

      1. Costa Nostra
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Long term is the key. I'd never take a hot on anyone, much less a D for a single fixture. But if over the course of 6 weeks you made 15-20 more points than if you didn't take that hit, well it's worth it to me.

    3. Punty
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      It's just a much bigger chance of a striker getting more than 6 points than a defender, but obviously it can also pay off to do a hit for a defender. This week 10 defenders got over 6 points and 6 attackers got more than 6 points, but at least 64 defenders have played and probably not more than 20-25 strikers. It's also more predictable which strikers has a chance of a haul than defenders imo..

      1. Punty
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        It is possible bigger chance of a defender getting minimum 6 points than a striker though because of clean sheets.. but the defender you are trading out also has a chance of clean sheet

    4. OShaughnessy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      > But what if the D scores a goal, gets a CS and some bonus

      We're actuaries here, right?
      So, we ask what's *most* likely & the best teams in the league keep a CS, what 18 out of 38 times?
      As a result, over the long run it's likely best to play a defender you have over taking a -4pts hit in order to replace him.

      Imagine you hit on 20 in blackjack & manage to spike a miracle ace for your 21 it doesn't all of a sudden make it a good play because, we *know* it's a losing play over the long term.

    5. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      So is anyone going to answer my question of what's the difference of taking a hit if you picked up the D for free and took the hit on a F?

      1. nedfoo
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        There's less guilt that way

      2. OShaughnessy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        You can't be this obtuse...
        A hit is a hit, regardless of the *order*.
        If *one* of the players involved is a defender, then you took a hit for a defender.

        1. Costa Nostra
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah, I guess I'm that "obtuse" then. Lol!

          So I guess your in the "Never take a hit for a D" camp. That's great if it works for you. I prefer to not follow most rules and go with my gut though. Has worked out pretty well for me so far in past seasons.

          Of the advice I see written on this forum, about 50% of it turns out to be bad, you just have to figure out the other 50%!

          1. OShaughnessy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            Seriously though, you truly believe that if you brought in Clyne on a Tuesday as your *free transfer* & then waited until Wednesday to get Dzeko for a 4pt hit that you somehow only took the hit for the striker but not for the defender?

            1. Billy Gilmore
              • 13 Years
              11 years, 4 months ago

              I like to think of it in the collective, you didn't take the hit for one or the other but both.

              1. OShaughnessy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                11 years, 4 months ago

                Of course!

                Totally agree however, the way OP has phrased it doesn't come off like that.
                And, there are plenty of times you could do it...
                Downgrade a defender to help upgrade an injured mid or fwd that it could work fine.

                That said, the *rule* exists for a reason & if everyone in the transfer is fit then its pretty hard to overcome that -4pts when a defender is involved.

            2. Costa Nostra
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              11 years, 4 months ago

              I don't believe that. I'm just saying how I see double standards on this site when people do exactly that. I see people ask if it's a good move to do a double switch including a D and if it's an upgrade it's usually met with "do it", but if someone made a FT earlier then does a D for a hit it's always "no, don't do it". Seems silly to me.

              1. OShaughnessy
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                11 years, 4 months ago

                Like most *rules* some common sense needs to come into play when applying them.

                But, you see now why people use it, right?

                In the end, would you feel better if it was dropped as a rule & just made a rule of thumb?

      3. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I think the hit for a defender rule no longer applies in a multiple transfer. For instance I might need to take a hit to downgrade Ivanovic in order to upgrade Siggy for a big hitter. To me I have to view it as -4 for both a defender AND a midfielder.

        1. Costa Nostra
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Agreed! It's kinda like a -2 for each. If your upgrading both positions it's for sure worth it. I think it's ridiculous to put limitations on when you should or shouldn't take hits. But to each their own.

          1. Ryan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            Of course in my example its because the cash for downgrading Ivan was needed to get the next big thing in midfield.

            In a situation where its a like for like replacement however I can understand the caution about not taking a hit for a defender. It would be important to weigh up the long term gains related to fixtures and form. In some cases it clearly wouldn't be worth it but in others it certainly could be. For that reason alone, a hard and fast rule such as 'never take a hit for a defender' is probably out of place.

    6. Jumpers For Goalposts
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I think in general a lot of the negativity involved with taking hits for any player is over-exaggerated on this forum and puts people off from making "gut" instinct moves, which I feel takes away from the fun of this game. 50% of the advice on here turns out to be wrong come the end of the round anyway. I think if you make good "gut" decisions on defenders, or any player, then a hit is fine. I took a -4 hit to bring in Dier and he scored. I took a -4 hit for Janmat and he scored. I took a -4 hit for Bertrand and he scored. I took a -4 hit for Ivanovic and he assisted and clean sheeted. I've now sold off both Dier (for a profit) and Janmaat and I have no regrets and it was fun owning both.

    7. Barry Woj
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      It's a stupid rule since everyone's teams are different and the long term picture is more important than just the next gameweek. The chances are that you will not make up those points with that player in that gameweek, but long term, assuming the transfer was a good one, it should pay off.

    8. Caine & Co.
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      it's a Stupid motto i agree. a hit is an additional transfer and if doesn't need to pay off immediately. if you take a hit now, your team will be different for the next 32 GWs (or until you wildcard) than it would be without the hit. if you wanna calculate if the hit was worth it, you can do the math (no one will) when the season ends (or when you use your wildcard).

      if you are ever going to spend a transfer to a defender, it might as well be for a hit.

    9. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Glad to see I'm not the only one who realizes that a hit when picking up a D will lead to more points in the long run if chosen wisely. I've made over 20 more points taking hits for D this year than I would have if I didn't take the hits.

      "Don't ever take a hit for a D"..........MYTH!!!

    10. Ginkapo FPL
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      "Costa Nostra wants the D"

      The simple truth is, if you could take a hit this week for a defender, OR wait a week and get him for free. Always wait the week. Is Fantasy Football ever that simple? Of course not.

    11. applebonkers
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      i'd take a bullet for kolarov, let alone a hit

    12. Kalix
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      The simple answer is, you got lucky. That doesn't mean it's not a good guideline. In general I believe it's correct.

      *** Points Consistency ***
      Clean sheets are fragile, you can't count on them even when they are a "sure thing". Nevermind getting a goal as well! Based on these figures: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2014/08/20/away-clean-sheet-masters/. I did the math for the past three years and only 57% of all clean sheets were kept at home.

      That's almost 50% of HOME games where even your BEST defender gets 2 points. I'd guess about 65-70% of defenders matches are 2 pointers. Compare that to attacking players like Ramsey/Yaya/Sturridge/Costa, who blank maybe half as often.

      *** Points Potential ***
      The ceiling on a defenders GW points will typically average at 6-8 points (maybe 7-9 for a set piece monsters getting 4 goals a season). Hardly exciting.

      The ceiling on attacking players is up to 3,4,5 times higher: a hatrick is 17 points, a 5-goal berbatov is many more. Maybe it's improbable, but the potential is there.

      *** Transfer Order ***
      This one is a bit messy. Transfer Order does and doesn't matter, both at the same time 😀

      If you use your FT on a defender, then get an injury in midfield.This is similar to the GAMBLER'S FALLACY (google it), in that you should NOT consider your previous transfer when deciding if -4 on the mid player is worth it. You must consider that midfielder transfer ON ITS OWN. Order is irrelevant.

      The end result is you have taken -4 on a defender, which is not ideal...but without timetravel it is the best play availabe to you. In this sense, order does matter.

      TL;DR:
      - You got lucky with Bertrand.
      - Clean sheets are not as easy to predict as you would think.
      - Defenders have a low ceiling, even when you get your CS, you break even for -4
      - For these reasons -4 on an attacker is a MUCH better play
      - Transfer order: -4 on a Def is never ideal...but sometimes it's still the best play available.

      1. Kalix
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Caveat:
        I think the BPS changes over the past couple of years means that often a cleanie is worth 7 or 8 points these days, so COULD be worth a -4 hit on its own. Obviously this is something to consider when applying a "rule" that was invented many many years ago.

        And of course there are always exceptions to the rule (Baines/Coleman/Ivanovic).

      2. Kalix
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Caveat #2:

        This is of course, just one man's opinion 😀

      3. Caine & Co.
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        you are missing the point which is taking a hit is Always for the long run, not just for the GW ahead

        1. Kalix
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Damn, my reply is below on Jafalads post.

          Tried to type two replies at once!

    13. Jafalad
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      The "Never Take a Hit for a Defender" "rule" was never one of my Natural Laws of FF. Oddly, I've never questioned it whilst happily ignoring such hokum, For example, I've just bought in Berty for the hapless Moreno who has provided me with 1 ppg since bringing him in.

      With any hit, the rule should be to think long term - at least 5 matches at the minimum. Obviously the fixture list and the player's form need to be seriously considered first. So if Berty keeps it up at 5 ppg over the next 5 games:>

      5 x 5 = 25 - 4 = 21 pts.

      If I were to keep Moreno for the same 5 games:>

      5 x 1 = 5 pts.

      Difference = 16 pts.

      I've ignored attacking pts etc and kept it to cs, to simplify.

      Was a hit for a defender worth it now?

      1. Kalix
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        The rule itself isn't really about long term transfers, but there is definately that aspect to the decision making process aswell. Make that caveat #3 😉

        I'm just trying to explain the reasoning behind the concept. Nothing is concrete in FPL!

        1. Kalix
          • 14 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          reply fail

    14. Prof SE
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      You're not looking at it correctly. Yes, in both of the scenarios you mentioned the end result is the same however at the the time of making the transfers we didn't know that a player was going to get injured.

      I do agree however, that taking a hit for a D can be good, but for different reasoning. You could potentially have a forward or midfielder you wish to bring in every gw and therefore (according to that logic) you will never change your D. Looking at 'will he or won't he score more than +4 this gw' is a poor assessment. You should look at will he score more than +4 over 2/3 gw's and also, way up the probability that you are going to want to make a change to a mid or forward next gw. If you feel this is likely then take the hit, otherwise as i stated above, you will be in the same situation every gw.

    15. Mary
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      no i still think taking a hit for a defender is a poor mathematical decision! yes over the course of 3/4 weeks it should pay off but for the gameweek you are doing it in it will most likely not work out so you are better off waiting a week and then using it as a free! Only exception to me would be if a defender wasn't playing and therefore going to get you 0 so then maybe the hit is worth the risk! The defender you sold is just as capable of scoring a goal too im sure

      1. Ryan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Waiting a week then doing it for free? yes but by doing this you are denying yourself another use for that FT. I'm not sure its a valid argument. Sometimes its best to clear the deadwood right away, get in the defender who is in form and starting a good run of fixtures and don't delay. To put it off a week and use this rule invites the same problem the following week, especially if you have to deal with an injury or an out of form attacker.

  13. samaael
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Would you get dzeko instead of aguero/sturridge if it meant you could get baines?

    1. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      yup

    2. Billy Gilmore
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      No

    3. Kevin Twine
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      No.

    4. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      No

    5. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      no

    6. OShaughnessy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Until we see how the CL & Prem rotations shake out I'd say it's best to steer clear.

  14. The Man Pastore
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    How would you rate my team on a scole from 1 to 10?

    Heaton
    Ivanovic Clyne Duff (Wisdom Bruce)
    Hazard Siggy Sterling Mane (Elmohamady)
    Costa Aguero Pelle

    0FT / 0.5 ITB

    Looking to bring baines in next GW.

    1. The Man Pastore
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      *scale

    2. Punty
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      7/10 maybe? Good forward line, don't like hazard in midfield and not convinced by Mane, don't like duff this week

    3. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Strengths - Costa Aguero Pelle ivanovic Clyne Sterling Wisdom Mane

      Middle of the road - Hazard Siggy

      Weakness - Heaton Duff Bruce Elmohamady

      I'd give it a 7/10

      Ditch the Burnley players and consider transferring out Hazard possibly for ADM or Fab.

      1. The Man Pastore
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        no FT left, considering wildcarding for GW8... Don't know if I should

  15. crteer
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Dzeko's time is running out when Jovetic returns I fell. Rotation risk.

    1. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      If you're not getting Aguero then stay away from City attack imo

      1. BigManBakar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        this precisely

    2. skodaole2
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Dzeko scored twice, so everyone is buying him. Next week he ll blank everyone will sell. Typical. Aguero is too expensive but he is the only reliable MCI choice.

  16. Steevo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Krul (Elliot)
    Clyne Bertrand Shawcross (Moore Hutton)
    Chadli Siggy Fab Sterling ADM
    Costa Aguero (Naismith)

    1FT 0.1ITB

    Think I'll save this week, but 2 options for next week: which do you prefer?
    A) Naismith, Siggy, Shawcross -> Pelle, Naylor, Boyd
    B) Naismith, Chadli, Shawcross -> Baines, Ulloa, Boyd

    Essentially Baines, Ulloa vs. Pelle, Naylor. Thanks everyone.

    1. The Man Pastore
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      B for me

  17. cogs
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    What to do!

    i have 5.8m ITB and 1 FT

    My front 8 is what i need to change:

    Di Maria, Fabregas, Sterling, Tadic, Siggy

    Ulloa, Costa, Naimsith

    1. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Naimith --> Dzeko

      1. cogs
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Not getting Dzeko, too risky with Jov near returning

    2. Steevo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Naismith, SIggy -> Boyd, Aguero

      1. cogs
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Was thinking this, Siggy's fixtures tho..

        1. Steevo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah but assuming you'd bench Naismith every week, the net change to your team is that you have Aguero playing every week rather than Siggy (which is a positive change imo).

      2. BigManBakar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        this

      3. cogs
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        What about Tadic --> Boyd, then in 2 weeks i can afford to upgrade a defender to Baines?

    3. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Yep, upgrade Naismith I think. He was always going to have to go at some point....

      Alternatively, you could.just save your ft with international week coming up..

    4. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Naismith > Pelle

      1. valurth
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        This

  18. st4rt__
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Someone give me a reason not to do Zaha & Di Maria > Downing & Silva this week please...

    1. skodaole2
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Why on earth would you get rid of Di Maria?

      1. Punty
        • 12 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Fixtures and stats?

      2. OShaughnessy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        It's not getting rid of DiMaria so much as it's upgrading his team as a whole.

        The later pairing will easily outscore the former.

      3. st4rt__
        • 11 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Just aren't digging him, fixtures aren't particularly great for him/United over the next 3-4 weeks neither, Everton (h), WBA (a), Chelsea (h) and City (a), does it not make more sense to have Silva for the next 3-4 weeks?

        1. Punty
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Depends if you have Aguero or not. If you don't then Silva is the next best thing when it comes to city-cover

          1. st4rt__
            • 11 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            Nah, I've got Costa / Pelle / Ulloa

        2. st4rt__
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          I mean if it helps, my midfield would then be - Cesc / Sterling / Silva / Downing / Siggy, feel like that midfield would benefit me a lot more in the long run too

      4. skodaole2
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Silva got the points now and Di Maria blanked so Di Maria -> Silva? And if next week Di Maria has 11 points and Silva 3 he should do Silva -> Di Maria again? I would get Downing but not by downgrading Di Maria, he is probably the best player in PL.

        1. st4rt__
          • 11 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          I'm not thinking like that at all, like I said above think it's down to United's fixtures to why I'm unsure about Di Maria, I guess Silva is a bit of a differential then and I'd say it's bit too early to say Di Maria's probably the best player in the league tbh

          1. skodaole2
            • 13 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            Silva and Downing are surely differentials. Fixtures dont have to do with attacking points MUN can score vs anyone and MCI blanked vs Stoke. Just wait until the CL game first to ensure Silva will be ok. I prefer midfielders who score not assist thats why i dont believe you should change Di Maria and get Silva. But if your gut says to go for it good luck.

    2. sully29
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Bad move I think. Silva is a brilliant footballer but is too inconsistent in fpl terms imo. Still not convinced by downing either...

  19. AarÖn Özilski
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    How's this for WC team?

    Mannone ( McCarthy)
    Clyne // Chamber // Baines ( Duff // Naylor )
    Sterling // Fabregas // Silva // Di Maria (Boyd)
    Pelle // Welbeck // Costa

    1. BigManBakar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      If you're on a WC, you MUST get Aguero.

      Silva to Tadic,ADM to Chadli/Siggy and Welbeck to Aguero for me. Rest looks great!

      1. AarÖn Özilski
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Not on WC. 50-50 on it.. :/

        But yes any WC team need to have Kun.

        1. Punty
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          So you have that team and you are considering to WC?

          1. AarÖn Özilski
            • 13 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            No. This is a WC draft. Real team has only 7 players from this team.

            1. Punty
              • 12 Years
              11 years, 4 months ago

              Hmm.. so you say "any WC team need to have Kun", and then your WC draft doesn't have Kun? :p

              1. AarÖn Özilski
                • 13 Years
                11 years, 4 months ago

                Haha.. I know.. I'm just playing around the transfers.. Now doing team with Kun on it.. 😆

  20. krumcake
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Good morning!

    Would you do:

    X)Rooney -> Agüero and Cahill -> defender less than 6.1 (-4)
    Y)Rooney -> Agüero and Bego -> 4.5 keeper (-4)?
    or
    Z) Rooney -> someone less than Agüero?

    Thank you in advance 😉

    1. nedfoo
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      X

    2. MJ6987
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Y

    3. valurth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Wait until after CL midweek. Aguero is always an injury risk so transfer in latest possible. Otherwise Rooney > Aguero and Bego > Mannone. Mannone always gets the safe points which are important. Bego doesn't get any save points so normally 2 or 6 points a game. Mannone 3-4 to 10 points a game.

  21. Sego Sambel
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    RMT please

    Forster, Hamer
    Moore, Bertrand, Taylor, Moreno, Duff
    Chadli, ADM, Sterling, Siggy, Fab
    Ulloa, Costa, Pelle

    0FT, 4.6 ITB
    Is Aguero essential? Trying to get him in but unsure about who to offload :/

    1. st4rt__
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Wouldn't necessarily Aguero's essential, especially given that you've got Costa anyway, but eventually I'm sure Aguero will be a must have

    2. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      He's close to essential.... Until he's limping off the another 3-4 weeks. Which could be any day now. Guys built like a cardboard house .

  22. Pringle
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    What would you do?

    A. Cahill, Rooney --> Chambers, Aguero (-4)
    B. Rooney --> Dzeko

    1. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. nedfoo
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. valurth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      A, after Champions League if Aguero is OK.

  23. Koflok
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Play 3 out of

    Clyne Naylor Moore Duff Chambers.

    Currently I have the first 3 starting

    1. Sunny 😎
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Naylor, Clyne, Moore

  24. Sunny 😎
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Who are the standout captain choices this week?

    I'm on Sterling but really want to captain Falcao

    1. amol
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I'm going with Aguero again

      1. Sunny 😎
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        I would too if I had him but Aguero's stats for away games suggest he doesn't explode away from home much

    2. st4rt__
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I'm going with Ulloa I think, seems guaranteed to score especially at home to Burnley

      1. Sunny 😎
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Brave choice, Burnley conceded 4 with a new formation yesterday but they'll switch back as Marney will be back next week and they might be tight again..

    3. mookie
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Aguero imo

      If Sturridge is fit+bib thing i might do Falcao ➡ Sturridge(c)

    4. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Go Falcao and you will be rewarded.

      Costa
      Sterling
      Balotelli
      Sigurdsson
      Aguero
      Dzeko
      Di Maria

      1. Sunny 😎
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        So you're on Costa 🙂

        1. Arvin-ation
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Nah, I'm on Aguero

    5. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Costa.

  25. ChampionoftheWorld
    • 11 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Guys any advice for this team? Pretty happy except I'm not sure what to do with Ade who have been poor.

    1 FT, 2.8 in bank.

    Forster (McCarthy)
    Moreno Bertrand PVA Taylor Hutton
    Di Maria Fab Sterling Siggy (Boyd)
    Costa Ade Pelle

    1. speshul one
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Dzeko?

  26. Arvin-ation
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    How's this for a WC team?

    Mannone
    Baines Chambers Bertrand ( PVA, Wisdom )
    Di Maria McGeady Tadic Sterling
    Costa Pelle Aguero

    McGeady + Aguero /// Ozil + Dzeko

    1. valurth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Who is your fifth midfielder? McGeady + Aguero. You need to bench one and you will have a selection headache if you go for Ozil + Dzeko.

  27. OShaughnessy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    "I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." - Wayne Gretzky

    It's an old & worn cliché but, with so many people scrambling to replace Rooney & Ramsey who do you`all feel we've collectively overlooked thus far?

    For me, the fact Tadic is only 2.5% owned is positively shocking. His underlying attacking stastics are far better than most heavy hitting mids & he's a fraction of their price.

    1. Arvin-ation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Dzeko and Ozil. People on here are scrambling for Tadic.

    2. John Nerdelbaum
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Already got 3 Soton players inc Pelle otherwise he'd be my Hazard replacement

    3. Ryan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      I bought him in earlier today along with Pelle. Tadic looked sublime against QPR and on another day he could have had 2 goals and an assist. He certainly has the goods to be explosive.

  28. Djerbil
    • 14 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Boyd or Hammond??

    1. ChampionoftheWorld
      • 11 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Boyd surely.

      1. Djerbil
        • 14 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        any danger of losing his place??

        1. Sunny 😎
          • 13 Years
          11 years, 4 months ago

          Record signing so should be safe

          1. ChampionoftheWorld
            • 11 Years
            11 years, 4 months ago

            And he's playing better than his teammates.

  29. speshul one
    • 15 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Begovic | McCarthy

    Clyne | Moreno | Bertrand | Duff | Wisdom

    Di María | Sterling | Fábregas | Schneiderlin | Sigurdsson

    Welbeck | Falcao | Diego Costa

    Really looking to get Baines in but. Not sure of the route to go down to get him in. Stubbornly going to keep Falcao as I love that guy. Thoughts appreciated, have 2 FT and £0.0 ITB

    1. valurth
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Falcao > Pele + Moreno / Clyne > Baines. Just look at the next fixtures United have, it will be an overkill with 2 attackers from Man U. during that run. Get in Falcao again when he starts performing. Coming from one who loves Balotelli and offloaded him for Pelle last week.

  30. John Nerdelbaum
    • 13 Years
    11 years, 4 months ago

    Scraping the defensive barrel this GW. Play one:

    A) Chambers (che)
    B) Duff (lei)

    Do we think there will be a reaction from Burnley?

    1. OShaughnessy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      11 years, 4 months ago

      Duff has a better shot a LEI than Chambers does at CHE.

      1. John Nerdelbaum
        • 13 Years
        11 years, 4 months ago

        Yep that's my thinking. Helped if Marney and Jones are back