With seven clean sheets and 23 goals, Southampton have enjoyed a tremendous first 11 Gameweeks to the season. They sit second in the Premier League with players such as Graziano Pelle in attack and Ryan Bertrand in defence proving to be cast-iron Fantasy assets.
However, while the Saints have strong momentum, over the coming weeks they face a daunting spell leading up to Christmas and beyond.
Gameweek 12’s trip to Villa provides easy passage into a run that introduces back-to-back matches with Arsenal, Man City and Man United. Indeed, Ronald Koeman’s side will then face Everton, Chelsea and Arsenal again in the three home fixtures that follow. In short, it’s an evil spell that could well reduce Fantasy output from back to front.
With this in mind, and with Pelle already shedding owners having gone three outings without a goal, our first of two “Burning Questions” this week asks whether Southampton players should be retained or ditched?
Jonty says…
Keeping on top of big shifts in the Premier League fixture list is crucial for me as a Fantasy manager. During Southampton’s kind and very long run of games, which ends in Gameweek 12, I stocked up on their assets. In came Ryan Bertrand and Graziano Pelle in Gameweek 6 and Dusan Tadic a week later.
It was a move that has gone on to define my season with this trio bringing in a total of 45 points in Gameweek 8, when I climbed more than 150,000 places into the top 10,000. Three Gameweeks on I’m still in this elite bunch, in fact now into the too 5,000 thanks in part to Pelle’s consistent returns and Bertrand’s clean sheets. I’m not sure in seven years of playing Fantasy football one team has defined my season in such a way.
But time moves on. From Gameweek 13 they face a run that includes City, United, Everton and Chelsea at home and Arsenal away. It’s one of the worst runs of opponents I’ve ever seen. Just as I constructed a team to take advantage of their kind spell, I will now look to build a lineup that takes advantage of others who have far better fixtures. From Gameweek 13 I will either ditch all three of my Southampton assets with hits or use my wildcard.
Tadic will always have a special place in my heart with his 23-point haul in Gameweek 8, but he has achieved little since with his strong underlying stats rarely translating into Fantasy points. For me, Nacir Chadli, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Stewart Downing all offer better points potential at a cheaper price.
Pelle has been reliable against weaker sides. But I don’t think he’ll maintain that against stronger opponents. Besides, for around a million less I can get other strikers like Charlie Austin or Diafra Sakho with better fixtures and similar returns.
Bertrand has to go as well. As Heels Over Head points out in his excellent recent analysis of clean sheet data, Southampton are unlikely to maintain their excellent shut-out rate. For a million more I can tap into Chelsea’s defence. For a million less I can invest in a Burnley or Newcastle defender and use Bertrand’s cash to invest in my Alexis Sanchez fund. Fantasy Football can be a ruthless business but, in order to stay at and improve on the rank Southampton have helped me achieve, I am ready to dump their players without hesitation.
Greenwindmill says…
My view on this is probably warped by what was undoubtedly the best (luckiest) transfer I made last season: After 6 clean sheets, a goal, numerous bonus points and several price rises in the first 11 Gameweeks, it wasn’t an easy decision to dump Jose Fonte. However, Southampton’s fixtures took a turn for the worse so I took the plunge and swapped him for Per Mertesacker ahead of Southampton’s Gameweek 12 trip to the Emirates. Arsenal ran out 2-0 winners with Fonte dragging down Mertesacker for a late penalty, picking up a yellow card in the process. The incident took Fonte’s score down to zero, whilst earning Mertesacker an assist and two bonus for a score of 11. In total Mertesacker picked up 55 points in the nine weeks after I bought him. Fonte got a mere 10 in the same period.
The cynical amongst you will realise this is essentially just an excuse to brag about the one occasion last season where I made a good move. The more generous spirited elements of the community may interpret this as a valuable lesson in trusting fixtures over form (at least where defenders are concerned). I’d like to think it serves both purposes – personally I’ll be switching Nathaniel Clyne to a Swansea/West Ham defender in the hope of similar fortune to last season. I’ll also be losing Sadio Mane and Pelle for players with a little more blue on their season ticker. This may come back to haunt me but I’m crossing my fingers and hoping this is my Mertesacker moment for this year.
7 Shades of Smoke says…
Southampton are on fire right now. They’ve produced a quality goal scoring striker for around eight million, a decent midfielder for any price bracket, and go into the Gameweek 12 trip to Villa with an incredible seven clean sheets in their last ten after that 2-1 defeat at Anfield in the opening weekend of the season.
Those who’d booked tickets for Saints’ options early were handsomely rewarded, riding the strength of their fixtures all the way to Villa Park. A journey that’s been so good to so many Fantasy managers, they’d easily be forgiven for missing their stop.
Before the clouds draw in, let’s not forget that Saints are looking a quality side. They’ll score goals in tough games and the likes of Pelle and Tadic – who lie sixth and third respectively in the ICT index – will continue to be involved, though it seems reasonable to expect their opportunities to whither through the winter.
With plenty of other options coming into great form, fixtures, or better still; both, Fantasy managers may chose to give these options a stay of execution while the assess the likes of Wilfried Bony and Christian Benteke as mid-long term replacements.
In defence lies a critical decision, however. If we extrapolate Saints’ clean sheet form (70%) through to the season’s end, they’d pick up another 19 from the remaining 27 games.
To put that into perspective, the tightest defences of the past three seasons produced less for the whole campaign on average – Chelsea and Manchester City’s 18 in 2013/14 and 2012/13 respectively, and Manchester United’s 20 in 2011/12. Given that Southampton have bagged seven already, that additional 19 clean sheets projection now looks massively inflated, and a quick glance at the glorious vista through the rear window of the Saints bandwagon gives an inclination as to why (Saints’ last ten: WBA, whm, NEW, swa, QPR, tot, SUN, STO, hul, LEI). In contrast, the forecast for Saints’ next nine isn’t quite so bright (MCI, ars, MUN, bur, EVE, cpl, CHE, ARS, mun). With Chelsea offering deluxe packages to the promised land of clean sheet consistency, and Swansea and Aston Villa advertising fair weather trips for any budget, it seems that Villa Park could make an apt interchange for Fantasy managers planning defensive budgets for the journey ahead.
Spencer says…
I currently have three Southampton players; Bertrand, Clyne, and Pelle. I’ve had Clyne from the beginning, and when Pelle since Gameweek 5, and Bertrand in Gameweek 6. Pelle has been consistent for me, but with fixtures stiffening and cheaper options with more favourable fixtures becoming available (Diafra Sakho, Saido Berahino, maybe even Danny Ings), I think it’s time to ditch the big Italian.
The defence is not such an easy decision, however. Rightly or wrongly, I’ve experimented with a number of double-ups in defence this season (West Brom, Newcastle and Southampton), with the Saints pairing being the most successful by far.
My double Southampton defence feels like a Toyota Prius; reliable but just a bit dull. My current thinking is that I’m going to break up this pairing and go for something cheaper like a Peugeot 207, aware that every now and then it will break down, but knowing that with the money saved, I can get also get a slightly more exciting Volkswagen Golf. With a little bit of shopping around, I might even stumble on a GTI!
Mark says…
I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast here – shedding Bertrand somewhat prematurely in Gameweek 10 in order to fund an urgent move for Alexis Sanchez. Looking ahead, I knew I could turn to Calum Chambers in my 3-4-3 and that Bertand’s forthcoming fixures threatened to produce a run of 2-pointers.
I won’t be considering Southampton’s rearguard again until they’ve navigated through Gameweeks 13-15. If they show resilience through that spell, I may plan to invest again and I suspect I’ll still be able to pick up Toby Alderweireld for 5.0 should that be the case.
In attacking areas, my soft spot for Tadic could be my undoing. He’s one of those players you want to keep for the silky deft touches on Match of the Day and the huge Opta numbers he produces week on week. However, the big return of Gameweek 8 is a fading memory after three consecutive blanks, making the trip to Villa’s a big one for myself and other Tadic converts.
I still think he can offer value – there’s a cast of mid-price assets on show this season and, while Tadic is pricey by comparison, I’ve faith that, with set-piece duties and penalties, the Serb schemer can deliver points to warrant his price tag – even against stiff opposition.
Another blank at Villa might just change my mind. Fantasy football is fickle like that.
Applebonkers says…
First of all I really wish Ronald Koeman was my dad. He just seems so nice, so happy, so wise. However, can we trust someone who seems so perfect? Of course not, he’s definitely hiding something, that’s just how it works. The upcoming run of fixtures definitely has the potential to expose his bizarrely placed third nipple and his chronic flatulence problem.
I’m sure I’m not saying anything particularly interesting or enlightening here but those fixtures are filthy. They have showed enough signs that they will compete in these big games but I reckon this will be more in an attacking sense than defensively. This could still mean there is something in Clyne and Bertrand but are this pair really in the Leighton Baines and Seamus Coleman echelons of play anyway in case of attacking points? I think they’re still in the clean sheets are bread and butter camp.
I’d definitely let go of their centre backs but Frazer Forster is trickier due to save points and the “limpet-ablity” of goalkeepers, so I’m 50/50 there. That leaves the attacking players. Can they be relied on to keep it going like former stalwarts Le Tissier, Beattie and Dia? I don’t think any of them showed enough against Liverpool, West Ham, Swansea or Tottenham. Bank the price rises and hope for more of the same, especially from “statzilla” Tadic.
