Changes to Opta’s expected goals (xG) stats explained

TopMarx talks us through what the ‘expected goals’ model revamp means for users
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saka | ARS | 9.9m | 105.2% | Very Likely |
| Gabriel | ARS | 7.2m | 109.4% | Very Likely |
| Casemiro | MUN | 5.8m | 98.9% | Likely |
| Richarlison | TOT | 6.3m | 98.6% | Maybe |
| Gyökeres | ARS | 8.9m | 78.9% | Maybe |
| Mateta | CRY | 7.6m | 93.9% | Unlikely |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 88.6% | Unlikely |
| F.Kadıoğlu | BHA | 4.4m | 86.0% | Unlikely |
| Van Hecke | BHA | 4.6m | 82.4% | Unlikely |
| Kroupi.Jr | BOU | 4.6m | 82.0% | Unlikely |
| Leno | FUL | 4.9m | 80.2% | Unlikely |
| Hinshelwood | BHA | 5.1m | 70.2% | Unlikely |
| Osula | NEW | 5.4m | 67.8% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.7m | 69.2% | Unlikely |
| Bruno G. | NEW | 6.8m | 61.6% | Unlikely |
| Richards | CRY | 4.4m | 64.0% | Unlikely |
| Ngumoha | LIV | 4.3m | 62.4% | Unlikely |
| Gakpo | LIV | 7.3m | 60.6% | Unlikely |
| Aaronson | LEE | 5.4m | 56.0% | Unlikely |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 6.2m | 53.6% | Unlikely |
| Aït-Nouri | MCI | 5.7m | 55.2% | Unlikely |
| Igor Jesus | NFO | 5.9m | 51.2% | Unlikely |
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 5.2m | 48.1% | Unlikely |
| Shaw | MUN | 4.5m | 50.3% | Unlikely |
| Mitoma | BHA | 6.1m | 46.8% | Unlikely |
| Minteh | BHA | 5.5m | 44.0% | Unlikely |
| Bijol | LEE | 3.9m | 44.6% | Unlikely |
| Wan-Bissaka | WHU | 4.1m | 43.9% | Unlikely |
| B.Fernandes | MUN | 10.4m | 41.6% | Unlikely |
| Henderson | CRY | 5.1m | 42.7% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 41.7% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 40.8% | Unlikely |
| Dowman | ARS | 4.2m | 39.6% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.2m | 38.5% | Unlikely |
| Beto | EVE | 5.0m | 37.8% | Unlikely |
| Bassey | FUL | 4.4m | 36.3% | Unlikely |
| Stach | LEE | 4.8m | 35.1% | Unlikely |
| Isak | LIV | 10.3m | 37.0% | Unlikely |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | 7.0m | 32.1% | Unlikely |
| Damsgaard | BRE | 5.6m | 34.9% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van den Berg | BRE | 4.5m | 143.3% | Very Likely |
| Rogers | AVL | 7.5m | 119.3% | Very Likely |
| Enzo | CHE | 6.5m | 126.8% | Very Likely |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | 7.6m | 105.9% | Very Likely |
| Iwobi | FUL | 6.2m | 114.8% | Very Likely |
| Watkins | AVL | 8.8m | 106.5% | Very Likely |
| Zubimendi | ARS | 5.0m | 104.9% | Very Likely |
| João Pedro | CHE | 7.5m | 102.8% | Very Likely |
| Keane | EVE | 4.5m | 103.0% | Very Likely |
| Struijk | LEE | 4.3m | 99.2% | Likely |
| Tolu | WOL | 5.2m | 95.6% | Maybe |
| Estève | BUR | 3.9m | 98.6% | Maybe |
| Emenalo | CHE | 4.5m | 91.8% | Maybe |
| Tchaouna | BUR | 4.8m | 96.4% | Maybe |
| O.Dango | BRE | 5.7m | 91.9% | Maybe |
| John | NFO | 4.0m | 94.1% | Unlikely |
| Reijnders | MCI | 5.0m | 94.3% | Unlikely |
| Mac Allister | LIV | 6.2m | 91.6% | Unlikely |
| Salmon | ARS | 4.0m | 96.7% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 4.9m | 90.9% | Unlikely |
| Slonina | CHE | 3.9m | 90.7% | Unlikely |
| Lucca | NFO | 5.4m | 85.4% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.3m | 89.6% | Unlikely |
| Konaté | LIV | 5.5m | 87.9% | Unlikely |
| Piroe | LEE | 4.9m | 88.5% | Unlikely |
| Woltemade | NEW | 6.7m | 86.2% | Unlikely |
| Raúl | FUL | 6.0m | 86.1% | Unlikely |
| Longstaff | LEE | 4.8m | 84.4% | Unlikely |
| Anderson | NFO | 5.6m | 83.5% | Unlikely |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.5m | 83.5% | Unlikely |
| Cairns | LEE | 3.9m | 82.1% | Unlikely |
| Gudmundsson | LEE | 3.8m | 80.5% | Unlikely |
| Kilman | WHU | 4.1m | 81.7% | Unlikely |
| Byfield | TOT | 4.0m | 78.1% | Unlikely |
| Johnstone | WOL | 4.4m | 77.2% | Unlikely |
| Mee | MUN | 3.9m | 77.3% | Unlikely |
| McAidoo | MCI | 4.5m | 78.5% | Unlikely |
| Caicedo | CHE | 5.7m | 74.2% | Unlikely |
| Obi | MUN | 4.2m | 74.0% | Unlikely |
| Abraham | AVL | 5.8m | 69.2% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | CRY | C | |
| No Change | EVE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| No Change | CRY | B | |
| No Change | EVE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| Up | TOT | B | |
| Up | FUL | B | |
| No Change | BOU | B, £ | |
| No Change | LIV | B | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| Down | LEE | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MUN | B | |
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| No Change | ARS | A, Vs | |
| No Change | FUL | C | |
| Up | BHA | B, Vs, £ | |
| Up | EVE | A, £ | |
| Down | CRY | C, Rest | |
| No Change | AVL | B | |
| No Change | LIV | A | |
| Down | NFO | A, Inj |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | BRE | B | |
| No Change | WHU | A | |
| Up | BHA | B | |
| Up | ARS | A, Vs | |
| Down | AVL | B, Rest | |
| No Change | LEE | B | |
| No Change | CHE | B |

TopMarx talks us through what the ‘expected goals’ model revamp means for users

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