Can we ‘predict’ goals using a negative xG delta?

Former champion Simon March asks if we can really predict when goals are ‘due’
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel | ARS | 7.2m | 103.5% | Very Likely |
| Saka | ARS | 9.9m | 101.8% | Very Likely |
| Richarlison | TOT | 6.3m | 94.4% | Unlikely |
| Casemiro | MUN | 5.8m | 93.9% | Unlikely |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 88.1% | Unlikely |
| Mateta | CRY | 7.6m | 86.1% | Unlikely |
| F.Kadıoğlu | BHA | 4.4m | 85.2% | Unlikely |
| Van Hecke | BHA | 4.6m | 80.9% | Unlikely |
| Leno | FUL | 4.9m | 80.8% | Unlikely |
| Gyökeres | ARS | 8.9m | 78.1% | Unlikely |
| Kroupi.Jr | BOU | 4.6m | 79.5% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.7m | 70.9% | Unlikely |
| Hinshelwood | BHA | 5.1m | 66.9% | Unlikely |
| Osula | NEW | 5.4m | 66.4% | Unlikely |
| Richards | CRY | 4.4m | 63.3% | Unlikely |
| Gakpo | LIV | 7.3m | 61.8% | Unlikely |
| Ngumoha | LIV | 4.3m | 61.6% | Unlikely |
| Aaronson | LEE | 5.4m | 58.6% | Unlikely |
| Bruno G. | NEW | 6.8m | 57.8% | Unlikely |
| Aït-Nouri | MCI | 5.7m | 55.5% | Unlikely |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 6.2m | 54.4% | Unlikely |
| Shaw | MUN | 4.5m | 50.7% | Unlikely |
| Igor Jesus | NFO | 5.9m | 47.7% | Unlikely |
| B.Fernandes | MUN | 10.4m | 47.2% | Unlikely |
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 5.2m | 45.4% | Unlikely |
| Bijol | LEE | 3.9m | 44.7% | Unlikely |
| Isak | LIV | 10.3m | 43.8% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 43.6% | Unlikely |
| Wan-Bissaka | WHU | 4.1m | 43.3% | Unlikely |
| Mitoma | BHA | 6.1m | 43.2% | Unlikely |
| Minteh | BHA | 5.5m | 42.7% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 40.8% | Unlikely |
| Henderson | CRY | 5.1m | 39.8% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.2m | 38.9% | Unlikely |
| Beto | EVE | 5.0m | 38.8% | Unlikely |
| Dowman | ARS | 4.2m | 37.4% | Unlikely |
| Bassey | FUL | 4.4m | 37.1% | Unlikely |
| Alderete | SUN | 4.1m | 35.8% | Unlikely |
| Damsgaard | BRE | 5.6m | 34.4% | Unlikely |
| Stach | LEE | 4.8m | 34.2% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van den Berg | BRE | 4.5m | 131.6% | Very Likely |
| Enzo | CHE | 6.5m | 124.1% | Very Likely |
| Rogers | AVL | 7.5m | 118.8% | Very Likely |
| Iwobi | FUL | 6.2m | 112.4% | Very Likely |
| Keane | EVE | 4.5m | 102.7% | Very Likely |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | 7.6m | 98.8% | Likely |
| Estève | BUR | 3.9m | 97.0% | Maybe |
| Zubimendi | ARS | 5.0m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| Tchaouna | BUR | 4.8m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| João Pedro | CHE | 7.5m | 95.7% | Maybe |
| Watkins | AVL | 8.8m | 94.3% | Maybe |
| Struijk | LEE | 4.3m | 94.6% | Unlikely |
| John | NFO | 4.0m | 94.8% | Unlikely |
| Reijnders | MCI | 5.0m | 94.4% | Unlikely |
| Piroe | LEE | 4.9m | 92.4% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 4.9m | 90.7% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.3m | 89.8% | Unlikely |
| O.Dango | BRE | 5.7m | 88.0% | Unlikely |
| Salmon | ARS | 4.0m | 88.7% | Unlikely |
| Slonina | CHE | 3.9m | 87.4% | Unlikely |
| Woltemade | NEW | 6.7m | 86.9% | Unlikely |
| Emenalo | CHE | 4.5m | 87.9% | Unlikely |
| Kilman | WHU | 4.1m | 84.9% | Unlikely |
| Lucca | NFO | 5.4m | 84.7% | Unlikely |
| Mac Allister | LIV | 6.2m | 83.4% | Unlikely |
| Konaté | LIV | 5.5m | 83.4% | Unlikely |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.5m | 83.5% | Unlikely |
| Longstaff | LEE | 4.8m | 79.2% | Unlikely |
| McAidoo | MCI | 4.5m | 79.2% | Unlikely |
| Byfield | TOT | 4.0m | 79.2% | Unlikely |
| Johnstone | WOL | 4.4m | 77.9% | Unlikely |
| Cairns | LEE | 3.9m | 77.5% | Unlikely |
| Mee | MUN | 3.9m | 77.0% | Unlikely |
| Anderson | NFO | 5.6m | 75.7% | Unlikely |
| Obi | MUN | 4.2m | 75.4% | Unlikely |
| Tolu | WOL | 5.2m | 74.1% | Unlikely |
| Caicedo | CHE | 5.7m | 74.7% | Unlikely |
| Raúl | FUL | 6.0m | 74.8% | Unlikely |
| Abraham | AVL | 5.8m | 73.0% | Unlikely |
| Ballard | SUN | 4.7m | 69.0% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | CRY | C | |
| No Change | EVE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| No Change | CRY | B | |
| No Change | EVE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| Up | TOT | B | |
| Up | FUL | B | |
| No Change | BOU | B, £ | |
| No Change | LIV | B | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| Down | LEE | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MUN | B | |
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| No Change | ARS | A, Vs | |
| No Change | FUL | C | |
| Up | BHA | B, Vs, £ | |
| Up | EVE | A, £ | |
| Down | CRY | C, Rest | |
| No Change | AVL | B | |
| No Change | LIV | A | |
| Down | NFO | A, Inj |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | BRE | B | |
| No Change | WHU | A | |
| Up | BHA | B | |
| Up | ARS | A, Vs | |
| Down | AVL | B, Rest | |
| No Change | LEE | B | |
| No Change | CHE | B |

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