Ex-FPL champion Simon March: How to avoid the correlation-causation fallacy

Ex-FPL winner Simon March discusses the spurious correlations between data sets that we Fantasy managers often pounce on
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 94.6% | Unlikely |
| F.Kadıoğlu | BHA | 4.4m | 94.1% | Unlikely |
| Leno | FUL | 4.9m | 92.2% | Unlikely |
| Mateta | CRY | 7.6m | 90.1% | Unlikely |
| Kroupi.Jr | BOU | 4.6m | 85.5% | Unlikely |
| Bruno G. | NEW | 6.8m | 81.1% | Unlikely |
| Hinshelwood | BHA | 5.1m | 82.5% | Unlikely |
| Dewsbury-Hall | EVE | 5.2m | 75.9% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.7m | 79.0% | Unlikely |
| Osula | NEW | 5.4m | 77.2% | Unlikely |
| Ngumoha | LIV | 4.3m | 69.3% | Unlikely |
| Richards | CRY | 4.4m | 67.6% | Unlikely |
| Gakpo | LIV | 7.3m | 65.3% | Unlikely |
| Ndiaye | EVE | 6.2m | 63.4% | Unlikely |
| Aaronson | LEE | 5.4m | 62.1% | Unlikely |
| Aït-Nouri | MCI | 5.7m | 59.1% | Unlikely |
| Shaw | MUN | 4.5m | 56.4% | Unlikely |
| B.Fernandes | MUN | 10.4m | 55.8% | Unlikely |
| Beto | EVE | 5.0m | 51.0% | Unlikely |
| Saliba | ARS | 6.2m | 47.5% | Unlikely |
| Igor Jesus | NFO | 5.9m | 50.9% | Unlikely |
| Raya | ARS | 6.1m | 47.5% | Unlikely |
| Minteh | BHA | 5.5m | 49.2% | Unlikely |
| Bijol | LEE | 3.9m | 48.5% | Unlikely |
| Wan-Bissaka | WHU | 4.1m | 46.4% | Unlikely |
| Doku | MCI | 6.5m | 43.3% | Unlikely |
| Frimpong | LIV | 5.7m | 46.0% | Unlikely |
| Ødegaard | ARS | 7.8m | 45.5% | Unlikely |
| Isak | LIV | 10.3m | 45.0% | Unlikely |
| Bassey | FUL | 4.4m | 43.7% | Unlikely |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | 7.0m | 42.6% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.2m | 42.4% | Unlikely |
| Mitoma | BHA | 6.1m | 41.3% | Unlikely |
| Alderete | SUN | 4.1m | 40.0% | Unlikely |
| Henderson | CRY | 5.1m | 40.2% | Unlikely |
| Dowman | ARS | 4.2m | 39.9% | Unlikely |
| Stach | LEE | 4.8m | 39.5% | Unlikely |
| Damsgaard | BRE | 5.6m | 39.3% | Unlikely |
| Rice | ARS | 7.2m | 34.6% | Unlikely |
| M.Fernandes | WHU | 5.5m | 36.1% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tolu | WOL | 5.2m | 97.1% | Likely |
| Struijk | LEE | 4.3m | 100.9% | Very Likely |
| Zubimendi | ARS | 5.0m | 100.7% | Very Likely |
| Abraham | AVL | 5.8m | 97.0% | Likely |
| Estève | BUR | 3.9m | 98.8% | Maybe |
| João Pedro | CHE | 7.5m | 96.9% | Maybe |
| O.Dango | BRE | 5.7m | 95.8% | Maybe |
| Tchaouna | BUR | 4.8m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| Mac Allister | LIV | 6.2m | 94.9% | Maybe |
| John | NFO | 4.0m | 95.5% | Maybe |
| Reijnders | MCI | 5.0m | 94.8% | Unlikely |
| Piroe | LEE | 4.9m | 93.3% | Unlikely |
| Salmon | ARS | 4.0m | 88.6% | Unlikely |
| Konaté | LIV | 5.5m | 90.9% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 4.9m | 91.3% | Unlikely |
| Grealish | EVE | 6.3m | 90.3% | Unlikely |
| Woltemade | NEW | 6.7m | 89.1% | Unlikely |
| Kilman | WHU | 4.1m | 88.4% | Unlikely |
| Slonina | CHE | 3.9m | 84.8% | Unlikely |
| Emenalo | CHE | 4.5m | 84.6% | Unlikely |
| Longstaff | LEE | 4.8m | 84.0% | Unlikely |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.5m | 83.8% | Unlikely |
| McAidoo | MCI | 4.5m | 80.9% | Unlikely |
| Okafor | LEE | 5.6m | 76.4% | Unlikely |
| Keane | EVE | 4.5m | 85.8% | Unlikely |
| Johnstone | WOL | 4.4m | 81.5% | Unlikely |
| Byfield | TOT | 4.0m | 80.6% | Unlikely |
| Raúl | FUL | 6.0m | 79.6% | Unlikely |
| Cairns | LEE | 3.9m | 79.2% | Unlikely |
| Mee | MUN | 3.9m | 77.4% | Unlikely |
| Obi | MUN | 4.2m | 77.7% | Unlikely |
| Ballard | SUN | 4.7m | 75.8% | Unlikely |
| Caicedo | CHE | 5.7m | 76.2% | Unlikely |
| Šeško | MUN | 7.3m | 74.1% | Unlikely |
| Van de Ven | TOT | 4.4m | 70.5% | Unlikely |
| Xavi | TOT | 6.4m | 69.4% | Unlikely |
| Amissah | FUL | 3.8m | 68.8% | Unlikely |
| Steele | BHA | 4.2m | 65.6% | Unlikely |
| Ebere | EVE | 4.4m | 65.6% | Unlikely |
| Gonzalez | WOL | 4.3m | 64.3% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | CRY | C | |
| No Change | EVE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| No Change | LEE | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B, Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| No Change | CRY | B | |
| No Change | EVE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | BHA | B | |
| Up | TOT | B | |
| Up | FUL | B | |
| No Change | BOU | B, £ | |
| No Change | LIV | B | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| Down | LEE | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MUN | B | |
| No Change | MCI | A | |
| No Change | ARS | A, Vs | |
| No Change | FUL | C | |
| Up | BHA | B, Vs, £ | |
| Up | EVE | A, £ | |
| Down | CRY | C, Rest | |
| No Change | AVL | B | |
| No Change | LIV | A | |
| Down | NFO | A, Inj |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | B | |
| No Change | BRE | B | |
| No Change | WHU | A | |
| Up | BHA | B | |
| Up | ARS | A, Vs | |
| Down | AVL | B, Rest | |
| No Change | LEE | B | |
| No Change | CHE | B |

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