Splendid stuff. This season I'm looking at my first finish outside of the top 10K since 2009/10.

A few captain decisions and being a little too slow to catch onto Leicester were key decisions this season that went against me, but overall I do find it similar to other seasons. There are always consistent players that some are slow to get and seasons without a RVP or Ronaldo often mean captain plans go array.

Hey guys, need some help. Last in my league and looking for a differential.
Current team is:

Lloris
Smalling Kos Kolarov
Mahrez Barkley Ozil KDB
Lukaku Vardy Giroud

Simpson, Richards, Wanyama

Got 1.7 in the bank and a free transfer.

Any tips?

Needs some help please

Which is better?
A- Yaya + 4 points (have KDB)
B- Ozil (have Giroud)

Play one:
1-Schmeicel
2-Butland

I don't think it's going to be too hard for the lot of us to move up. The current top 10k has had it pretty easy so far with so many consistent players performing week in week out and a lot of them haven't got experience of when the form players change so quickly like many of us do. Also, a large percentage of them have used their bench boost and triple captain chips which will shorten the gap also.

Any data on how many up there have used their chips as I think that could have a big bearing. Top of my ML has used all 3

Bloody good article!

Fab article mate 🙂

Fantastic article!

I have finally been hitting my "FPL form" but have found my movement up the ranks has been vert gradual/ I currently sit on my best rank this season of 320k, and that's on the back of 6 straight green arrows, and some very successful captain choices like Mahrez gw17.

I agree with TM that you can't say it's a casual season, it's very similar to the PL where everyone is good, a lot more people use this website and other online resources, and FPL is growing every year so we have to expect a greater level form first time players. Also these first time players may have played in the past and just started a new account.

Even though a lot of chips have been played in the top 10k, being in that position is a lot easier to hold on to than it is for us who are trying to chase, especially with the current form of players. Hopefully some new signings will shake things up.

Having problems getting on the site, but a quick note.

Thanks for the comments, all. One area that I can't really track down but anecdotally sense might be an issue for movement up the ranks is the spaces between say 750k and 500k, or 500k to 200k, etc. I have read several posters say they are above the top 10k each week but don't seem to be moving anywhere in the six figure range.

If indeed there are many more players with decent knowledge of the basics of the game, then these are the levels which will be very slow going and will be tests of our patience. Risky moves and flair captains might be tempting to give us a leap over a crowd of immovable, more conservative players, but they might also be a waste of precious gameweeks as we look to climb in the second half of the season.

I have only had one season outside the top 6k in 7 season, with a 45k finish, so this season's current rank of 120k is very foreign to me.

Top post and a great read!

The quality does feel like it has gone up, when "decent" performances in GWs can lead to a small red arrow, when in the past they would be small greens. From very recent personal experience, what this can then mean is that one is subconcioulsy looking for differentials already, trying to be clever and outwit the masses to gain an advantage. As an example, I capped Kun in GW19, as I almost felt I needed to, and hence got a red arrow.

Of course, you need to question what your aims are now, to get a decent finishing rank and realise this may not be inside the top 10k that you are accustomed to, or to take a few risks and risks a very lowly finishing rank.

Subconsciously, you may not even realise that this decision has already been made.

When I first played FPL in 2008/09, I scored only 2085 points and yet I finished 3535. Since then my scores have trended higher, and the best I've done is 22337 in 2010/11. It certainly feels like FPL is getting tougher to hold my own and not lose ground, let alone make it into the top 10,000.

The posts above might connect a bit with this data, and Philman's post about setting goals and fighting subconscious impulses could be the way to go if a steady climb is the goal.

Here are the points markers offered a different way, in ~10 point increments to allow people to see what is right in front of them instead of just the overwhelming big picture. Remember, the further behind you are, generally the more people there will be right next to you.

Total pts - Overall Rank
1,000 pts - 723,000
1,011 pts - 605,000
1,020 pts - 508,000
1,030 pts - 424,000
1,041 pts - 363,000
1,051 pts - 265,000
1,060 pts - 209,000
1,071 pts - 154,000
1,081 pts - 110,000
1,090 pts - 83,500
1,100 pts - 57,600
1,109 pts - 41,300
1,119 pts - 27,600
1,129 pts - 17,900
1,138 pts - 11,500
1,148 pts - 7,100
1,159 pts - 3,900
1,169 pts - 2,300
1,180 pts - 1,195
1,190 pts - 629
1,200 pts - 324
1,210 pts - 166
1,218 pts - 104
1,279 pts - 1st

A few interesting logjams in the six figure area, but overall as it would stand to reason each ten points extra sees a decrease of an impact on OR.

With the game now having 3.6 million registered players, top 10k represents the top 0.3%, i.e. three standard deviations from the mean. I can't help but feel that the target of top 10k is no longer a reasonable target to aspire to.

With the increased number of players who know what they're doing, and the increased awareness of advice websites by new players, it is bound to be more difficult than previously to make the top 10k - but how much more difficult is not easy to estimate, and experience should still count for something.

The new Triple Captain and Bench Boost chips have had a big impact on current overall positions, and those of us who have not yet used them are bound to move up the rankings when we eventually play them - but how much we improve our rankings is not likely to become apparent until very late in the season.

I find it surprising that achieving the average 10k score every GW of the season does not result in a top 10k ranking. Is that because the average includes players about to drop out of the top 10k but excludes players about to enter it? Presumably the average GW score of the players in the new top 10k (which includes the new entries) is somewhat higher than the average of the old top 10k (which includes the dropouts) - but by how much?

Great article, well done!

Splendid stuff. Wonderful writing. TM245: Are you a consultant by any chance? 🙂

Great stuff, TM245. I love articles like this.
FPL might be like poker in some respects (not that I'm a poker player at all). When they tightened the rules for online gambling in the US, a lot of casual players disappeared, leaving only dedicated, serious players. Those who were left found it much more difficult to break even, not because their skills had eroded, but because their competition was as skilled as they were.
It seems like there are many more serious FPL players now compared to years past. With all the wisdom available on FFS, it is only natural that making it to the top will get more difficult. The more compact points difference seems to extend far beyond the 10k mark. It would be interesting to see how the distribution all the way out to 1m differs from previous years.

Which 2 should I play between Moreno, Alderweireld and kolarov?

Butland
Sagna Simpson Moreno (Dawson Toby )
Ozil KDB Mahrez arnautovic (Barkley)
Vardy lukaku Kane

1) team g2g???
2) captain choices - ozil favourite??

Good to see that the gaps in points are smaller than last season and similar to season 2013/2014. Taken together with the facts that:
- this time we have the chips distorting the picture,
- there are plenty of inexperienced teams up top,
I think it's too early to write this season off even if you're very far away from the top 10k at this point. Just need the template to stop delivering (and we saw some signs of it today) and do things right during the rest of the season. I'm staying optimistic despite being at 200+K.