634x258 Scout Notes
9 December 2015 871 comments
James Barnes James Barnes
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Raheem Sterling scores twice as City qualify for the Champions League knockout stages as group winners. United have worries in defence after a loss to Wolfsburg relegates them into the Europa League. Elsewhere, Daniel Sturridge is set for another period on the sidelines, John Terry is back for Chelsea, whilst Manuel Lanzini adds to West Ham’s growing list of injuries.

Sterling Brace Caps City Comeback

Manchester City topped their Champions League group in spectacular fashion with a 4-2 comeback victory at home to Borussia Monchengladbach. Manuel Pellegrini declined to field a frontman at the Etihad, deploying Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling and David Silva as an interchangeable attacking trio in a 4-3-3 set-up. The latter opened the scoring courtesy of a Sterling assist, before the former Liverpool man fired the Sky Blues back into the lead in the second period with a three-minute double. Substitute Wilfried Bony capped off the scoring with the hosts’ fourth and also earned an assist in a 25-minute cameo off the bench. In defence, Gael Clichy was utilised on the right, with Aleksandar Kolarov retaining his spot on the opposition side of the back-four.

The Scout Says: Silva’s thunderous strike against the Bundesliga outfit will be music to the ears of 30,000 managers that recruited him over the last two Gameweeks. Priced 0.9 below De Bruyne (10.9), the Spain international (10.0) could establish himself as the prime route into Man City’s midfield if he can replicate his early-season form (six assists in five matches). Sterling (8.9) has managed just two assists in the last six Gameweeks but his strong showing on the European stage further complicates the dynamic, particularly if Manuel Pellegrini opts for the same system in the event that Sergio Aguero remains absent for the weekend. Having found their form again, the upcoming schedule (SWA, ars, SUN, lei, wat) bodes well for City’s attacking contingent.

Injury Concerns for Beaten United

Manchester United crashed out of the Champions League by way of a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Wolfsburg. The visitors’ first goal saw Anthony Martial latch onto a through ball from Juan Mata and produce a neat finish, while their second arrived from an own goal. Man United’s misery was compounded by fresh injuries to Chris Smalling (groin) and Matteo Darmian (hamstring) as they dropped into the Europa League. Elsewhere in the Red Devils’ camp, Bastian Schweinsteiger’s proposed three-match ban will be appealed by the club after the German midfielder was charged with violent conduct against West Ham’s Winston Reid.

After the match, Van Gaal conceded that Smalling and Darmian could miss the weekend trip to Bournemouth:

“Matteo Darmian has a hamstring injury and Smalling probably a groin injury. Smalling could not jump at the moment of the set plays and that goal [Wolfsburg’s third] was also because of that. He had to give it [defensive responsibility] to another player and that’s always a question of communication and quality. I don’t know (whether they will be ready for weekend), it’s happened this evening, but normally they are out for Saturday.”

The Scout Says: Martial’s intelligent movement and clinical strike underlined his manifest talents, yet he remains on the periphery of our thinking as a mid-priced forward; in the last six Gameweeks, the France international mustered a paltry six attempts and one shot on target, despite leading the line in three of those starts. Although Van Gaal’s troops have struggled as an attacking unit – ranking second-bottom for shots on target (14) since Gameweek 10 – Smalling leads the way in the FPL defender standings, with a security of starts helping him earn nine clean sheets. United’s upcoming festive schedule (bou, NOR, sto, CHE, SWA) looked tailor-made to invest in Smalling but if he’s ruled out for any period of time, finding a reliable route into Van Gaal’s rearguard looks a tricky task.

Sturridge Sidelined Yet Again

Daniel Sturridge has been ruled out for around three to four weeks with a hamstring injury sustained during Liverpool’s 2-0 loss at Newcastle.

The Scout Says: Sturridge’s latest injury setback delivers a galling – yet all too predictable – blow to the 83,000 managers that gambled on his fitness last week. Given the projected length of his absence, Sturridge is likely to sit out enticing match-ups against West Brom, Watford, Leicester, Sunderland and West Ham, before a possible return at home to Arsenal in Gameweek 21. Christian Benteke (8.3) will now be hoping to nail down the lone frontman role in Sturridge’s absence, though the big Belgian has struggled to adjust to Jurgen Klopp’s pressing tactics. Roberto Firmino bagged a goal and two assists as the central striker away to City in Gameweek 13 and offers an alternative to Benteke as the Reds look to bounce back from their disastrous defeat at Newcastle.

Grealish Back in Contention

Having missed Aston Villa’s last two league match-ups on disciplinary grounds, Jack Grealish – who’s been training and playing with the U21s – has returned to the full squad ahead of a home tie against Arsenal. Manager Remi Garde insisted he was happy to welcome the youngster back to the fold:

“Jack is back with the group now. I am pleased to have him back because he’s an important player for the group. I am also pleased regarding how Jack trained over the past two weeks with the U21s. Jack is back. I am happy for that – and for the team.”

The Scout Says: Although there’s no quick fix to Villa’s myriad of issues at both ends of the pitch, Grealish could serve as a catalyst for their attacking thrust. Despite sitting out six Gameweeks this campaign, he ranks top among their midfield contingent for attempts (14) and second for shots inside the box (six), having fashioned efforts at a much faster rate (one every 51.2 minutes compared to 81.5 minutes) than Scott Sinclair. In light of the latter’s ineffectiveness, Grealish could replace him in the attacking trio when the Gunners come to town, with Jordan Ayew – who’s bagged three goals in seven outings but suffers from his classification as a forward – operating from the opposite flank. With some decent fixtures to follow the Arsenal clash (new, WHU, nor, sun, CPL) Garde’s side have the chance to build momentum in their bid to find a way out of the basement.

Lanzini Adds to Hammers’ Woes

West Ham confirmed that the thigh injury Manuel Lanzini suffered in training prior to their Manchester United road clash will sideline him for up to six weeks.

The Scout Says: Lanzini’s spell in the treatment room comes as a frustration to the 100,000 Fantasy managers that snapped up the promising fifth midfielder in the wake of his three goals in five starts. It could turn out to be a double blow for the Irons, too, given that Victor Moses sustained a hamstring knock at Old Trafford and is scheduled in for a scan today – with Dimitri Payet and Diafra Sakho also sidelined, Slaven Bilic could be without his first-choice four attackers if Moses is also ruled out. Either way, Mauro Zarate is pretty much assured a wide berth for the time being, while Michail Antonio could profit from Moses’ potential absence. The latter is an unknown quantity at this level, but he’d represent great value at the 5.2 mark if he could rekindle the form that saw him amass 14 goals in the Championship last term.

Mixed News for Big Sam

Sebastian Larsson will be out for a month with the knee ligament issue that prevented him from featuring against Arsenal last Gameweek. Meanwhile, Lee Cattermole is struggling with a nerve problem in his back that renders him a major doubt for Sunderland’s home encounter against Watford. In better news on the injury front, Jermain Defoe is expected to recover from a minor hamstring niggle in time for the Hornets clash.

The Scout Says: Defoe netted two goals in as many starts before succumbing to injury against Stoke City, so one would expect Fabio Borini to drop out to facilitate the Englishman’s reinstatement. As for Larsson’s stint on the sidelines, Ola Toivonen will be looking to retain his weekend starting role, whilst Jordi Gomez and Jack Rodwell could come into contention if Allardyce switches from 3-4-3 to 3-5-2 to accommodate Defoe up front again. Ultimately, the Wearsiders’ rearguard – which has bagged two clean sheets in three outings since Sam Allardyce’s adoption of a three-man backline – offers more appeal from a Fantasy perspective. On that note, Patrick van Aanholt (4.6) scored once and ranked third among defenders for attempts (six) across the last four Gameweeks, but the Black Cats’ perilous schedule (WAT, che, mci, LIV) discourages investment.

Terry Boost for Blues

Speaking to the press ahead of Chelsea’s Champions League clash against Porto, Jose Mourinho said that Radamel Falcao, John Terry and Ramires have all returned to training. Although Falcao won’t be back in contention for another fortnight, Terry and Ramires will make the matchday squad at Stamford Bridge:

“Falcao just had a little period training with us. He is still a couple of weeks away from being in condition to play. John Terry and Ramires look fine.”

The Scout Says: Should Mourinho afford Terry a starting role at Leicester next Monday, Gary Cahill is most at risk of being demoted, considering that Kurt Zouma has been Chelsea’s most consistent defensive starter. Pitched at 5.4, Zouma welcomed 33,000 new owners last Gameweek after the Blues chalked up three successive clean sheets in all competitions prior to their home loss at the hands of Bournemouth. With home clashes against Sunderland and Watford in the next three, over 44,000 managers snapped up Eden Hazard last weekend – the Belgian has accelerated his goal threat of late with seven shots inside the box across the previous four Gameweeks.

FA to Investigate Mahrez and Williams altercation

The FA have called upon Leicester and Swansea City to present further information regarding an altercation between Riyad Mahrez and Ashley Williams. Tempers between the pair reportedly reached a flashpoint outside the home dressing room following the final whistle, with Williams attempting to follow the Algerian onto the Leicester team bus.

The Scout Says: Given that the match officials weren’t witness to the event, both clubs would have to risk incriminating their players by detailing the incident for the FA to issue any sanctions. Considering that Swans boss Garry Monk has already said he was unaware of any altercation, it seems near-certain that this one will be played down. The same can be said for Leicester, with the Foxes likely to remain equally tight-lipped to ensure that Mahrez remains available for selection over the festive period.

871 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Chris_White
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Ramsey bossing Silva on the stats, but I am weak for the little spaniard... 🙁

    1. Teddy Brewski
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      He's only played 70 odd mins and most of that was away at Stoke. Ramsey was at home to Sunderland

    2. Nickofoz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I'm tossing up between the two aswell. Ramsey was brilliant against Sunderland but I don't have any other City cover.

      If I went Ramsey would mean I would replace Aguero with Vardy but if I went Silva it would be Giroud

      1. Teddy Brewski
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Vardy? Surely that boat has sailed?

        1. Nickofoz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Umm, how has it sailed?

          He hasn't blanked in 13 weeks?

          Not only that but there don't seem many other alternatives, Benteke, Ighalo etc. all have their major downsides

          1. Teddy Brewski
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 9 days ago

            Lukaku and Kane better options for the next few weeks imo

            Ighalo nearly 2m cheaper and only a few pts short of Vardy so don't see too many downsides to him over Vardy

        2. Scoredelario
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          said everyone every week forever

      2. Amsterhammer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Don't worry about cover worry about points. For me that is Ramsey and Vardy.

    1. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Lol City won't be forgetting any more cake days, bakeries in Manchester must be making a killing!

    2. Camp No No
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Wait for a sulking tweet from Yaya "How the feck did Raheem get a cake like that?! This just shows how little they appreciate me!"

  2. Bobby_Baggio
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Who would you bench? Thinking Mahrez - Crazy?

    KDB, Ozil, Deulofeu, Rambo, Mahrez
    Lukaku, Vardy, Kane

    1. Paulie Walnuts
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Deulofeoloueloe

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Tough - he's been playing very well and against Norwich - dont think i can bench him

      2. FF Dirtbag
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Deul.

    2. Scoredelario
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      deulofeu by some distance IMO

    3. faver
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Looking at Gerards performance last week, its more like kane or kevin to go out. Kevin can rest also, cuz Silva is back

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Thanks for your advice but i dont think i could ever bench KDB or Kane

        1. faver
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          I think that Lolofeu must get 10+ at some point, last games only proves me right. Watching Kevin at Stoke and Gladbach only pushes him towards bench on my list. After thinking i recognize that im wrong about Kane, he can and probably will provide goals. Just look at benching Kevin as an option, as i do. Thats all I have to say

    4. BbBb
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Deu

    5. Amsterhammer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Deulofeu for me.

    6. Guru Mediation
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      sell Deu, and end this madness!

    7. Hanked
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Rant coming up..

      Can we please ban any question starting with "would it be crazy?" or ending with "Crazy?" or "Crazy, right?"

      You're not crazy, you are just bad at fantasy football. Don't bench the player of the season so far, who's also the top points scorer by a distance, who also has good underlying stats, who scored a hatrick last week, who plays a very poor chelsea side next.

      Bench Deulofeu, be disappointed when he gets 2 assists and move on with your life knowing that it's an inevitable part of opting to distribute funds the way you have.

  3. Gooner Kebab
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    'This is the difference between the friends and the fake friends,' said Mourinho.

    Full coverage, next time on Fake Britain!

  4. internal error
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Sky sports are saying Sturridge is out for 2 weeks

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      That man is allergic to coming on the pitch I swear.

      1. Scoredelario
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        that's very personal knowledge

        1. Hooky
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          If there's grass on the pitch....

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I vowed I would never touch him again after last season's trollfest, but that mid-week showing was sooo good...

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        gross...

      2. Hooky
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Is Trollfest some sort of Lord of the Rings gathering? Or a night out in Rotherham?

        1. Camp No No
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          It's a mix of the two, a Lord of the Rings gathering at night in Rotherham. You don't want to experience it.

          1. Piggs Boson
            • 14 Years
            10 years, 9 days ago

            That's a disturbing thought 🙂

            1. Camp No No
              • 12 Years
              10 years, 9 days ago

              You're welcome. It's my pleasure to disturb you. 🙂

  5. Alittude
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    woud you rather iggy or lukaku for next 5 gws?

    1. Scoredelario
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Lukaku because of fixtures

      i say this as an ighalo owner, lukaku non owner so I'm the opposite of biased!

    2. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Was worried you were on the wrong website for a minute there... Lukaku.

      1. Alittude
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Haha. Thanks I already did Iggy to lukaku for the fixtures alone, hope it wasn't too preemptive.

    3. drokkeh
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Lukaku. Really like Ighalo but already got Kane, Vardy, Lukaku

      1. Alittude
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        thats my front 3 now finally. who will you C tis week?

        1. drokkeh
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Harry

  6. Jose's Magic Omelette
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    It's gone quiet on here the last 10 minutes... a sign most on here were procrastinating at work and have gone on lunch breaks now?

    1. FF Dirtbag
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Definitely

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I've been running simulations and tests on my code this morning so all that compiling and loading had meant I can browse here 😀

      1. Jose's Magic Omelette
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        😉 yeah I've been waiting for work to appear since 10 so I can also browse here! Love getting paid to be on FFS!

      2. Paulie Walnuts
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        well i've been coding. eating, FFS, and looking up luck meck

  7. McQueen
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Rojo after surgery:

    "My operation was a success. Thank you to my beautiful wife, always with me. Thank you everyone for your messages of love and support."

  8. FF Dirtbag
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    The team:
    Butland Hennessey
    Bellerin Alderweireld Souare (Bertrand Simpson)
    KDB Ozil Barkley Coutinho* (Anya)
    Lukaku Kane Vardy

    Which Transfer? (1FT and 5.4 mill ITB):

    A) Barkley -> Ramsey/Silva
    B) Wait for Cout news, if out Cout-> Ramsey/Silva
    C) Bertrand -> Moreno
    D) Save transfer

  9. internal error
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Coutinhoooooooooooooooooooo

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Theeeeoooooo

      1. Eden Hazardous
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Rambooooooo

    2. Hooky
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Ighaloooooooooooooooo

    3. andy85wsm
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Still out?

      1. internal error
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        FFS tweets

        1. Reddonkeyham 42
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Let's hope a small cameo in Europe, ready for the weekend, and causing me another benching headache!!

    4. Jose's Magic Omelette
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Vardinhoooooooo

  10. GRIMANDI [formerly boring M…
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Not confident of Theo starting either of the next two fixtures. Wenger will handle him with care id assume.

  11. Another take on team form
    Stoke me a Clipper
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Hi Peeps. This got lost in the Team Form comments section, and I want some thoughts on the analysis because i might do it regularly if it works....

    I do like the weekly article (http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/12/09/team-form-gameweek-16/), and I really appreciate the effort that The Sarjeant goes to. I still struggle to try and fit the tables into a firm strategy though. So, I’ve decided to try and plug in a few numbers and see if I get anything meaningful. These are my results, feel free to have a look at whether you think they’re helpful or not (or just plain garbage; I’m thick skinned, I can take it!).

    What I have done is try to use the weekly fixtures and the teams' Home FS (failed to Scored)/CS (Clean Sheets) Statistics vs the Away FS/CS statistics to produce a general likelihood of a Home or Away CS (and conversely the likelihood of goals!).
    It works like this :

    Home FS Average + Away CS Average / 2 = Average Likelihood of a Home CS
    Home CS Average + Away FS Average / 2 = Average Likelihood of an Away CS

    So, here are the numbers for GW16:

    Norwich vs Everton = 21.5% vs 28.5%
    Palace vs Southampton = 27% vs 40.5%
    City vs Swansea = 34% vs 0%
    Sunderland vs Watford = 21.5% vs 21.5%
    West Ham vs Stoke = 26% vs 25%
    Bournemouth vs Man Utd = 19.5% vs 33.5%
    Villa vs Arsenal = 13% vs 47.5%
    Liverpool vs West Brom = 36% vs 35.5%
    Tottenham vs Newcastle = 53.5% vs 33.5%
    Leicester vs Chelsea = 28.5% vs 7%

    So from these numbers we see a few obvious highlights:

    - City have a very strong chance of a goal
    - Very good chance of Arsenal scoring AND getting a CS
    - Very strong chance of a Spurs CS
    - Very good chance of Leicester goals

    However, one or two subtle and less obvious picks highlight themselves:

    - Good potential of a Southampton CS
    - Decent Chance of a City CS
    - Man Utd more likely to score than you might think based on recent form
    - Liverpool vs West Brom not as clear cut as the fixture first seems
    - Spurs not as likely to score as you might think

    So, how this fits into my weekly strategy; I think I can make three decent decisions based on these results:
    1/ Reconsider captaining Kane – The fixture looks like a plum tie. However, Newcastle may be more resilient than you’d expect
    2/ Get in another Arsenal midfielder. This one does seem a little more obvious, but I was on the fence about getting in Ramsey; now I think I’ll do it
    3/ Double up on Leicester? It was tempting to drop one of either Vardy or Mahrez; maybe this isn’t such a good idea.

    Anyway, I hope some people can make use of this. Let me know what you think!

    1. Stoke me a Clipper
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      also that was super long..... you have my apologies

    2. Reddonkeyham 42
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Good bloody read!! Certainly an interesting way of looking at the stats. Will pop back after the weekend to see how you get on, but would certainly like to to see this on an occurring basis.

      Was hoping I'd find a reason to drop Vardy or Mahrez but nope!

      1. Stoke me a Clipper
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Cheers!

        Alas Vardy and Mahrez look undroppable. And this is before you even look at their underlying stats!!

        1. GENERATION X
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          As someone who dropped Mahrez last week be careful on that one..

          1. Stoke me a Clipper
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 8 days ago

            Exactly. I am speaking from experience! Don't bench Mahrez!!!!

    3. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Chelsea 7% 😀

      I'm surprised how close Norwich and Everton are.

      1. Stoke me a Clipper
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Yeah me too!

        But when you think about it, it just shows how open and free scoring both sides are. I'd still go for an Everton win; but both teams to score

    4. Pochecinno
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Fantastic post mate.

      Keep them coming

    5. Hamstergod
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Great read! Nice work!

      I reserve more judgement after comparing with the real results after the weekend.

    6. andy85wsm
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Thanks SMAC 🙂

    7. Pumpkinhead - I'm ITK …
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Keep doing these..excellent stuff

    8. McQueen
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Good stuff. Thanks.

    9. Defcons are for Kinnear
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Great work. Adds to my KDB over Kane for captain decision.

    10. Stoke me a Clipper
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Out of interest I'll post the results after the weekend and see how accurate it turns out to be

    11. BabyB
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Thanks SMAC.

      One small criticism would be Swansea having a value of 0%. While they are undoubtedly awful, nothing can ever be 100% or 0% as there is always a chance of it unusual things occurring, no matter how unlikely? Anyway, certainly highlights the potential for a big City score if they play well.

      Really interesting way of looking at it though and appreciate the effort. Would be interesting to follow the results of this over the next few weeks and maybe see an article on it?

      1. Stoke me a Clipper
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Cheers for the feedback BabyB.

        I agree that's where the argument falls down (a little). The statistics are shackled by what 'has' happened rather than what 'could' happen. The Swansea example is an excellent example. The facts are that City have scored in every home game so far, and Swansea haven't achieved an away Clean Sheet yet. This yields a result of 0% which isn't representative of what could happen, only that it is really really unlikely that City won't score. It'd be a coupon buster for sure.

        Maybe rather than saying 0% with certainly, we could say 1% based on the inherent uncertainty that comes with the bonkers game that is FPL...

        1. BabyB
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          yeah, wasn't meaning to be too negative, just that form a pure stats point of view, it didn't seem right.

          Maybe, one way around it would be to create some sort of banding system as opposed to specific percentages? Would help create a small fudge factor to cover it off.
          0-10% - highly unlikely
          10-20% - unlikely
          and so on...

          Anyway, I am overthinking a minor detail. Thanks again for the original post.

        2. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 15 Years
          10 years, 8 days ago

          Since the home and away teams in each game have played about 15 games between them on average, a single CS or FS changes the percentage by about 1/15 * 100% = 6.7%.

          The margin of error is therefore probably rather higher than 1%.

          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            10 years, 8 days ago

            Testing

          2. Stoke me a Clipper
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 8 days ago

            It's a fair point. Like I said, it's only for indication purposes.

            The benefit of using averages like this, is that the margin of error reduces each week!

    12. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I love this. Top work. Weekly please.

    13. The_Socca_Philosopha
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      Brilliant stuff! Cheers!

    14. GENERATION X
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      I don't think its going to stop me both buying and (C) Kane.

      Newcastle may be OK fighting hard at a full St James - prior to that they have been leaky and have a pretty awful record in London. One swallow doesn't make a wife etc...

      No issues with more Arsenal and have Vahrez - might even give the Algerian a game this week (gnash of teeth).

    15. powderjunkie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      I think it's a really simple and intuitive way of looking at things. It makes perfect sense. The only problem is the small sample size.

    16. Bezzer
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      This is great, one of the best things I've seen on here.
      Will be looking at this to pick my team/captain this week.

      1. Stoke me a Clipper
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 days ago

        Wow! Thanks a lot!! 😀

    17. Clam. ☘️
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      Top notch!

    18. Beavis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      Great post SMAC.

    19. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      "Home FS Average + Away CS Average / 2 = Average Likelihood of a Home CS
      Home CS Average + Away FS Average / 2 = Average Likelihood of an Away CS"

      Shouldn't it be
      "Home CS Average + Away FS Average / 2 = Average Likelihood of a Home CS
      Home FS Average + Away CS Average / 2 = Average Likelihood of an Away CS"?

      I use a similar idea myself, in a simpler but less accurate form, by just looking at
      Home CS Total + Away FS Total and Away CS Total + Home FS Total.

      1. The Fantastic Mr Fox
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 days ago

        Exactly. I thought I was the only one who felt this wasn't right. SMAC, your thoughts?

      2. Stoke me a Clipper
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 8 days ago

        Yeah, you're right. I did only proof read this quite quickly.

        The numbers are sound though. I was just looking for a good way of using the article that The Sarjeant posts in order to make some informed decisions. I was staring at the table thinking 'there is some useful information here, but it could be made better'.

        The obvious options like an Arsenal goal @ Villa or a City goal at Home you can see easily looking at the table. It's the more subtle trends that these numbers serve to highlight. For example the increased chance of a Newcastle clean sheet. At first glance the statement seems ridiculous, but the numbers show that often Spurs have struggled to score in home matches, and Palace & City aside, Newcastle have tended to be quite resilient away from home (Bournemouth & Manu Utd for example)

        Cheers for the feedback though!

    20. Zasa
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      Fantastic research, STMAC! Looking forward to your next update 🙂

    21. Filthbomb
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      Really excellent article. Very useful analysis that even a rookie like me can understand! Thanks for sharing!
      Hope you do this again.

    22. Filthbomb
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      Surprised to see Watford and Sunderland are even!

      1. Camp No No
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 8 days ago

        It's Sunderland's home match.

    23. Stat Sloth
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 6 days ago

      Please do this on a regular basis, SMAC. I f***ing loved it!

      1. Stat Sloth
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 6 days ago

        As an addition, i based both my transfer (Ramsey) and captain (Vardy) on this. It would be great to laugh in all the Kanecappers face on Monday 😀

  12. 1966 was a great year for E…
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Williams, by all accounts, went absolutely mental at Mahrez. You only usually see that sort of reaction over a racist comment.

    1. Scoredelario
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Rather big conclusion to jump to!

      1. Camp No No
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Indeed.

    2. Nickofoz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Source?

    3. Somalion
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Speculation, could easily have been Williams' frustration with Swansea's season creeping out.

      1. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        ^

    4. Cevap
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      wow, that is a bold statement to make. let's not get silly with assumptions

    5. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Can't blame Williams for trying to get on the Leicester bus.

      Wouldn't be the first time someone has stowed away trying to find a better life!

      1. Camp No No
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Didn't he want to get to Arsenal before? Maybe he just thought that "heck, I can't make it to Arsenal, but sure I must have the talent to make it to Leicester and they're doing pretty fine too".

        1. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Something like that 😀

          Still a bold move just getting on the bus like that. At least Odemwingie sat patiently in the car park!

          1. Camp No No
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 9 days ago

            He's one upping Odemwhingie.

            1. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
              • 14 Years
              10 years, 9 days ago

              Odds on Berahino strolling into WHL dressing room in Spurs kit and boots Jan 1st?

              1. Camp No No
                • 12 Years
                10 years, 9 days ago

                Let's check the bookies, I might put a fiver on that. 😀

    6. 1966 was a great year for E…
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Sorry, obviously that's complete speculation!

  13. Bubz
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Coutinho likely to start at the weekend you reckon? Choosing between he and Delli Alli to field is going to be a toughie.

    1. Paulie Walnuts
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      go for Delboy

    2. Scoredelario
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      You should get more info especially if he is in the Europa squad

    3. Amsterhammer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      My advice is to wait till pressers for weekend games.

  14. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Jingle bells, Ramsey smells
    Theo scored a brace
    How much fun it is to captain
    In this brutal FPL race.

    1. Paulie Walnuts
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      haha i like it

    2. Scoredelario
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Syllable overload!

      1. Piggs Boson
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        01010111 01101111 01110010 01100100 01110011 00100000 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01101110 01101111 01110100 00100000 01101101 01111001 00100000 01110011 01110100 01110010 01100101 01101110 01100111 01110100 01101000

        1. Scoredelario
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Aaaaaaah it burns!

  15. andy85wsm
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    UFPL - who to loan in for Sturridge? 🙂

    1. Eden Hazardous
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Who do you already have?

      1. andy85wsm
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Watmore, Martial, Ighalo, Lukaku and Kane.

        No money ITB

        1. Eden Hazardous
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          What about a punt on Giroud?

          1. andy85wsm
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 15 Years
            10 years, 9 days ago

            Yeah think it'll be him or maybe Benteke....but not sure about that one.

    2. tets mcgee (Ha La Land)
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      how do u have sturridge in ufpl???he has ben injured whole season.. what made u select him?

  16. faver
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Adriaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan

  17. AleksanderVN
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Think I need yo get a City attacker for Mané.

    Who do you prefer?

    A: Sterling
    B: De Bruyne
    C: Silva

    1. La Roja
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I'm in the same situation. Leaning towards KDB

      1. AleksanderVN
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        I was all set on KDB based on the Stoke match.
        But yesterday shows that Silva/Sterling could be good bets.

        Couldnt make up my mind yesterday, so missed the price raises.

    2. Bubz
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      KDB

    3. Reddonkeyham 42
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      BCA

    4. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Looks like sterling for me.he's the only one I can get in for mane without a hit.

    5. Berget
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      In same, same dilemma! At the end, I will go with Silva.

    6. Amsterhammer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      B - I think he will do well playing a Swansea low on confidence.

  18. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Who is better to keep in the long term: Kane or Lukaku? I need to dump one of them around GW18. Leaning towards keeping Kane atm.

    1. Guru Mediation
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I think Lukaku looks undroppable this year

      1. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Yeah, he is shaping up that way. Also, I do really, really dislike Kane. Think it might have to be case of crossing the bridge when I get to it really.

  19. Nickofoz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    What do we actually think happened between Mahrez and Williams?

    Obviously we don't know any details but let's play a game where we guess what happens.

    I reckon Mahrez has said something during/after the game about his and Leicester's demolition and Williams wasn't happy with it

    1. Bubz
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Hopefully Mahrez told Williams he has been the worst fantasy football asset that has ever lived

      1. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Ha 🙂

      2. Nickofoz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Call me crazy but I reckon he'll come good when Swansea do 🙂

    2. andy85wsm
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Reckon Mahrez has Williams in his FPL team and is annoyed by the lack of clean sheets and bonus

      Williams benched Mahrez....

      1. Nickofoz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        😀

    3. Hooky
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      As Williams is a bit tubby maybe Mahrez compared him to Lenny Henry/Ainsley Harriott?

      1. Nickofoz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Wouldn't blame Williams in that case!

        1. Hooky
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Topical joke. I should be on Have I Got News For You this week!

          http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/dec/04/itv-ainsley-harriott-lenny-henry-knighthood

          1. Nickofoz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            10 years, 9 days ago

            😀

    4. Murder on Zidane's Flo…
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      If guessing, I'd just say Williams has let him get away with being a little smart @rse and then is stewing on it and decided he needs another word. As to content, could be heaps of things.

      1. Nickofoz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Yeah, probably something along those lines 😀

    5. Valar(Keith)
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I hear the fight happened cause Williams realised that his missus relegated him to the couch and he found Mahrez in his stead..
      in her fpl team of course

      1. Nickofoz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        😀

      2. Camp No No
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        So, what Mahrez said to him was "your wife captained me against you in FPL". After the match, Williams checked and found that it was true!

    6. 1966 was a great year for E…
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I started to play the game, and everyone got angry with me!

    7. pompeyfan
      • 16 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      what shall we call the game? 'FFS gets sued for libel' perhaps?

  20. Evasivo
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Who'd you captain out of these? Ighalo then Ozil vc?

    Gomes
    Kolarov Cresswell Moreno
    KDB Ozil Mahrez Firmino
    Lukaku Ighalo Vardy

    Schmeichel Francis PJones Westwood
    1FT & £5.9ITB

  21. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Butland
    Kolarov Smalling* Bellerín
    Hazard Ozil Ramsey Mahrez Barkley
    Kane Lukaku
    Schmeichel Vardy Dawson Francis
    If Ramsey looks ok tonight this will be my team next weekend.
    Would you
    A) Bench Vardy
    B) Bench Hazard or other
    C) AOA bench Smalling (since doubt). I dont like Dawson and Francis cs-chances this week.

    1. Amsterhammer
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Good time to use AOA for me looking at that.

    2. Bøss ⭐
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      you could AOA but you'll have the same benching dilema moving forward as you have spread your funds across all the positions. I'm tempted to bench Vardy this week, I'd save AOA if I were you

  22. Tim Canterbury
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Thank god Coutinho

    1. Paulie Walnuts
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      yes, let's all thank God

  23. Jigger & Pony
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    What's a good TV and SV to have at this stage of the season?

    1. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Dont know but my TV is 107,3 - I heard many with similar (Im at 71 OR)

      1. Reddonkeyham 42
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Think average of top 10k is around 105

      2. Scoredelario
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Quite an important “k” missing there!

        1. Iceball
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Opps, 71k of course, thx 🙂

      3. Whats the Huth
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        71st OR???!

        For real?

      4. Jigger & Pony
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Nice one

    2. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Samsung

      1. Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        SmartTV 🙂

      2. Jigger & Pony
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        🙂

    3. Epic Fail
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      No such thing.

      1. Jigger & Pony
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Surely you want to be as high as possible right? Eventually we all may want Kun, Sanchez and others...

        1. Epic Fail
          • 15 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Ideally as high as possible, but if you have a low TV and are getting the points in then it's all good.

          1. Jigger & Pony
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            10 years, 9 days ago

            Sure, thanks

    4. Bøss ⭐
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      I'm on 107m TV which I think is pretty good (higher than most) it'll drop a bit when I sell Vardy in a few weeks as around 1m is tied up in him

    5. Spectrum-FFS Doubles Champ
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 8 days ago

      107.7 here but having a bad season so far

  24. saikado
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Any suggestion to improve this team?

    Butland,
    Konscielny, moreno, alderweireld,
    De bruyne, mahrez, ozil, deulofeu,
    Kane, vardy, lukaku

    Subs: mane, dawson, francis
    ITB 2.5m

    1. La Roja
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Cue Klopp "I don't want to be too optimistic"

    2. Nickofoz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Klopp said before the Newcastle game that he has been training normally so that's not really news.

      He just hasn't felt good enough to be able to play, still had a problem in one of his muscles according to Klopp

  25. Reddonkeyham 42
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Butland
    Kolarov Moreno Alderweild
    KDB Ozil Barkley Coutinho
    Vardy Ighalo Lukaku

    Begovic Mahrez Cresswell Evans

    Got £4.5 in the bank, what's the move for me?

    1. Larry Legend
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Sit there and look smug? I would!

      Only obvious move is Begovic out, but you might want to save the FT. Presumably the 4.5 itb is for Kun, but bear in mind that Igloo and Vardy bothhave harder fixtures coming up.

      1. Reddonkeyham 42
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Not Aguero, I'm not falling in that trap anytime soon. That money was and probably will be for Kane in for Ighalo but I'm unsure, guess I just save the transfer?

        1. Larry Legend
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Yeah I'd save then.

  26. FF Dirtbag
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    I'm considering taking out Barkley as Norwich are hard to beat at home and I think he has just been lucky...

    Or am I being stupid?

    Would be Barkley -> Ramsey or Silva. Plus I have Lukaku.

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I'm benching Barkley

      1. FF Dirtbag
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        He wasn't great last weekend either... But he is a high scoring player.

        1. Whats the Huth
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 9 days ago

          Barkley shops from outside the box.

          Norwich concede sgoals from inside the box

          1. Bøss ⭐
            • 13 Years
            10 years, 8 days ago

            he's been getting into the box a lot more, his past couple goals have been tap ins.

            I'd say it's a bit early to jump ship, I have deulofeu and feel the same way about him - I'd rather have Ramsey but brought him in for the good run of fixtures and still think he'll score well over the next few.

    2. SAY SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      I think either of them are better options tbh,

  27. Whats the Huth
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Theo Theo Theo

    Is the man

  28. Larry Legend
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 9 days ago

    Do Aguero > Lukaku now or wait for news? Worried about price changes between now and Saturday.

    1. Whats the Huth
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 9 days ago

      Waitttt

      1. Larry Legend
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 9 days ago

        Cheers