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18 July 2007 0 comments
Mark Mark
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These tips guides continue to prove popular so here’s the latest. In this guide I take a look at selecting Midfielders and talk through a process that can be used to narrow the player list and make it easier to compare players using a number of factors. That’s all probably nonsense but I’ve also included a load of player tips, which is probably nonsense too, but will hopefully encourage you to take a look.

When it comes to selecting Midfielders your search criteria typically narrows to just goals and assists, pure and simple. There are games that do bring in clean sheets and real-life team results as a scoring method, plus man of the match bonus points. I am going to consider these factors later, however this guide is centred around the idea that you can, to some extent, predict the Fantasy points output of Midfielders based upon previous form and a number of factors. That’s far easier when it comes to Goals and Assists than it is with Man of the Match awards awarded at the whim of a handful of journalists. And, as I am about to detail, it’s much simpler if you can group players into organised lists or tiers.

Before you scan through this latest article, it’s worth having a look at my guide to General Team Selection. That article will introduce you to the concepts that I’ll be talking through here namely the art of finding first choice players, avoiding injury prone players and pouncing on misclassifications. That particular trick is magnified for the selection of Midfielders – finding a player classified as a Midfielder who is playing up front for his team can be pure gold. Also bear in mind that you can use my Selection Stats to help you sort and filter the players available in the most popular games to make your selection process detailed in this guide, easier.

The main emphasis of this guide then, is the principle of separating players into tiers to help with the selection process. This heirachy of Fantasy Players can be formed from the form shown in previous seasons and mirrors the kind of process that game organisers go through when creating player values. The placing of players into these tiers is by no means a science – its all up for discussion and argument. This guide only includes my opinion on where players are placed, for what it’s worth. It’s also important to stress at this point that the heirachy of players can also vary from game to game, particularly as some games involve alternative scoring methods such as Man of the Match bonus points. However, in this guide I’ve put together a basic structure for Midfielders that is based on the average placing of the players across a series of games based on last season’s performance, so, hopefully, it will be fairly useful for assessing players and their potential next season, no matter which game you’re playing.

So how is this tier system used? The idea, once you’ve got your list of players split into tiers, is to examine the list in detail and identify players that will increase their points output and move up the tiers in the coming season. When you break players down into a heirachy, it’s far easier to assess their potential and value, no matter which game you’re playing. If you can find just one or two players who will move up the heirachy of tiers and are available at a decent price, then you’ve a chance of picking a side that can fair well in any mini-league. Predicting which players will move up and down the tiers is obviously not easy, however, there are sure-fire factors to consider when doing so.

One factor that can influence a players Fantasy points output from season to season, is a transfer move. Joey Barton for example, has moved from a City side which struggled for goals last season to a revolutionised Newcastle side with Viduka and Owen up front. That kind of move can have a big influence on Barton’s Fantasy points. Look out for players who have had similar moves that should benefit them – Benayoun at Liverpool, Richardson at Sunderland, Ljungberg at West Ham and Harewood at Villa are all players that should benefit from recent moves with increased Fantasy points this season. Also, keep an eye on future moves – Shaun Wright Phillips could well get bought and if he does, his scoring potential will increase significantly. Why? Simply because he’ll play more games. That is the key factor.

It’s a simple fact that if they play more games than last season then they are more likely to improve their points output, if they play less games, it’s more likely to go down. When considering this, you have to assess whether they are an automatic choice, the likelihood that they’ll be a victim of rotation and the likelihood of suspensions and injuries. Firstly, look at who else their club has signed in their position and assess whether that could impact on their number of appearances. Giggs and Scholes for example, are likely to figure less for United this season due to the arrival of Nani and Anderson. You can fully expect all four players to share Premiership starts and therefore, you can say with some conviction, that Giggs and Scholes are likely to drop in output while Nani and Anderson are probably going to offer little value for their inflated Fantasy prices. Similarly Sidwell’s points output is likely to drop because, despite Chelsea offering a greater attacking threat than Reading, his number of appearances are likely to be severely limited.

Let’s take a look through the tiers of Midfielders that I’ve created and discuss how these factors play a part.

1st Tier2nd Tier3rd Tier4th Tier5th TierUnproven
RonaldoArtetaCahillJ ColeHuntMalouda
LampardMG PedersenTaylorRobbenAlonsoKoumas
GerrardFabregasEssienNolanPetrovMcSheffrey
 BentleyScholesLennonDyerBabel
  GiggsMilnerDaviesEdwards
  BartonJenasRosicky 
  BarryBullardParker 
  GilbertoSpeedBenayoun 
   DowningBallack 
   YoungRichardson 
   SidwellDavis 
   CampoPennant 
    Ljungberg 

As you’ll see my first tier is occupied by just 3 players – Ronaldo, Lampard and Gerrard. It’s hard to imagine any Fantasy Football side without at least one of these trio in the lineup. Ronaldo may be the most expensive midfielder available but if he can repeat his points tally from last season, his points per million value in most games makes him a bargain. The question is of course how will he, Lampard and Gerrard fair this season?

Right now I can see both Ronaldo and Lampard having their Premiership appearances cut by 3-4 games due to the arrival of Nani at United and Sidwell at Chelsea. I also feel that Gerrard will improve on his points total this season having hit only 7 in 35 games last season. So I can see the gap between all three of these top tier narrowing but I still feel Ronaldo will come out on top.

Looking at the second tier, what you have to look for is which one of these will maintain or improve their output. Arteta was outstanding last season and in my view will have to go some to maintain that, particularly as there is still doubt as to who takes the spot kicks when Andy Johnson is fit. Pedersen is therefore the best of this bunch for me, although, if you want to spare funds then I can see Bentley improving again, with a couple more goals and the same kind of assist output. Fabregas will have to improve his goal output to lift himself or even maintain his position in the second tier. However, he will once again reap in the Bonus points and Man of the Match awards so if these are a scoring factor in your game then you can expect Fabregas to rank alongside the top tier players in this respect.

The Third and Fourth tiers are where you can really do some damage. If you can find one or two players here who will bely their price and emerge as a top 6 midfielder, then you will not only reap the points but also have the funds spare to spend on reliable top tier players in other positions.

There are a good few players here who should improve and push themselves into the second tier. If Tim Cahill can remain injury free then you can expect double figure goal tally from him. Matt Taylor meanwhile, may be classified as a midfielder after his stint as a defender in Fantasy Games last season, but that might not prevent him from finding the net another half a dozen times at least. The lack of clean sheets and the chance that he’ll be rotated with Kranjcaron occaisions however, is enough to convince me that his points output will drop this season. Right nowBarton from the third tier and Milner, Nolan and Downing from the fourth tier, are my current tips to promote themselves this season.

Barton is a gamble due to tendency to attract bookings and controversy. However, his prowess going forward is proven and at Newcastle he is playing with the likes of Viduka and Owen, players who should help him create more goal opportunities for himself and also help to increase his assist output. If you don’t fancy Barton, then Millner is certainly a good early season option. With Duff sidelined, Milner will get a run in the side and he too should benefit from the signing of Viduka in terms of assists. Another decent early season signing is Downing. Middlesbrough probably have the best set of opening fixtures of any side and I fully expect Downing to kick on this season and chip in with more goals. Whether his assist tally will increase will depend on Yakubu’s form and Tuncay’s role in the side. However, such are Boro’s fixtures in the first month, I believe he’s worth a look early on.

Finally Kevin Nolan could well be this year’s sleeper that wakes up to hit form. He’s already finding the net in pre-season and will Sammy Lee appearing to be shifting formation to 4-4-2, it could be that Nolan could be freed up to provide the kind of points tally he hit in 2005/06 where he was firmly up amongst the likes of Gamst-Pedersen in terms of goals.

The fifth tier is the home of some potential bargains and some overpriced players who could yet prove themselves worthy of hefty price tags. The likes of Rosicky, Ballack and Benayoun could live up to reputations this season but for me, they remain gambles that will have to prove their worth over the first few months of the season before I’m willing to consider drafting them in. Simon Davies and Steven Davis at Fulham and Scott Parker at West Ham are for me, better bets, simply because their values should be very reasonable in most games and yet I strongly expect all three to improve on last season’s output. Davis did of course, play few games for Villa so that’s a given but Simon Davies’ consistency for Fulham after his move from Everton doesn’t appear to have been reflected in his value this season and he represents a very decent mid to low price buy in a squad game or even a 4-4-2. Scott Parker meanwhile is back with Curbishley, the man who knows how to get the most from him. I expect a more attacking influence from Parker at West Ham and an improvement on the paltry 3 goals and 1 assist he scored last season. Another of Curbishley’s signings, Ljungberg, could also be worth a look. Regular starts will see his points output rise this season to possibly push him up a tier, however injuries are always an issue when considering Freddie.

My final tier includes players that are unproven. Players who have no record in the Premiership last season but who will find themselves amongst my five tiers. These are players from promoted clubs or new arrivals from foreign shores that I consider, at time of writing, to be worthwhile signings. They are risky, simply because they are unproven. They may not settle with pace of the Premiership, or life in England, or in the case of players from promoted sides, they might just be out of their depth. Avoiding the temptation to sign these players from the start, for bragging rights should they turn out to bargains or big hits, is not easy. But my advice (unless the pricing in your chosen game is ridiculously cheap) with these players is to “wait and see” let them play out a few games and if form is shown and points come in early, jump on the bandwagon.

Chelsea’s Malouda, is my first option when it comes to these unknown quantities. Malouda’s goal threat is renowned and I’m convinced he’ll be a big player for Mourinho’s side this season. Jose is a big fan of power and physique in his midfielders and I just feel he’ll get more games than Robben (if he stays), Joe Cole and Wright Phillips, for that reason. Plus, he has a proven understanding with Drogba from their days at French club Guingamp and takes his fair share of set-pieces. Malouda could well break into the second tier of midfielders this season. Of all the new foreign arrivals in the Premiership so far this season, he is the one that is getting closest to finding his way into one of my sides.

I’ve got my eye on Koumas simply because he is likey to be at the centre of Wigan’s attacking output all season. He’ll play a part in set pieces, he’ll be a goal threat, he’ll provide assists from open play and he’ll get their Man of the Match awards. Of course Wigan will have to have a decent season for him to lift himself up a tier, however, his price is good in most games, he could well be a decent bargain. There’s a chance that Koumas could rank amongst the third tier this season.

McSheffrey is a very tempting proposition because like Koumas, he is likely to be the main creative force at Birmingham. Corners and penalties are both in his repertoire while last season he got himself 13 goals and 18 assists. Whether he can repeat anywhere near that is dependent on Birmingham’s impact on the Premiership. Plus, the opportunities he’ll get to play up front. There’s a good chance he’ll line up alongside new signing Mido as Bruce may consider playing out wide could lighten his midfield’s defensive capabilities too much. He could well be this seasons Kevin Doyle then but again, it’s perhaps wise to “wait and see” and watch early on, snapping him up if it appears he will flourish. He is however, an ideal budget midfielder if his price is right.

Another of the promoted players worth monitoring is Carlos Edwards. Again, his record in the Championship last season for Luton and Sunderland is impressive – 11 goals and 8 assists. Sunderland could well fair the best of the promoted sides and while Richardson is likely to attract more attention, Edwards is certain to be a cheaper option and could even outscore the new signing from United as he offers a bigger goal threat based on his career stats.

It’s very difficult to predict the impact of Babel at Liverpool due to Rafa’s tendency to rotate his side so often. His appearances could be limited to 20 or less, depending on the position that he is slotted into. It seems unlikely that he’ll figure up front, more likely he’ll be deployed out wide, maybe on the left with Riise playing behind him. Early on, while Aurellio is still out, that could well be the case so Babel’s impact could well be decided by how well he takes his opportunities in the first few games.

That concludes the tiers of players I’m going to look at. There will undoubtedly be players I add to this that are currently missing and out of my current thinking – Wright-Phillips for example. I may well update this article in the next few weeks then, but right now the guide reflects my thinking when it comes to specific Midfielders. As I’ll explain in a moment though, it’s not the players that are the real focus of this guide but the process of finding them.

Before I conclude though, just a word about those Man of the Match points and Bonus points for performance that you’ll find in some popular games. They are a factor that can change your thinking when it comes to placing players in tiers. We’ve already seen that Fabregas’ position is actually heavily influenced by his likelihood of Man of the Match or Bonus points awards. Essien is another player in this bracket. Beyond those two and the players in the first tier, it’s difficult to predict the players who will reap the most of these points. New Premiership arrivals are possible candidates since they are often flavour of the month – Malouda and Babel are both possibilities here. Similarly, McSheffrey and Koumas could benefit from being attacking, flair players in sides that lack those particular qualities. They will stand out when their sides gain victories and earn Man of the Match and Bonus points as a result. When it comes to earning points from clean sheets – a factor in the Premier League Fantasy game, then it’s worth checking out my guide to selecting a Keeper and Defence for pointers on those sides who are likely to offer the biggest return.

As I bring this guide to a close, there are a couple of things I’d like to emphasise. Firstly, these are just my opinions on these players based on previous form – take it all with a pinch of salt. If this guide has any value whatsoever, it’s that it is describes a process of selecting Midfielders (and one I’ll be applying to Forwards in another article). That’s the real purpose of this guide rather than the specific players I discuss. The process of placing players into groups and tiers based on their previous points output, is something that can really help see past the vast list of players and the prices you need to juggle when constructing your side. As I’ve said, it also lets you carefully assess each player in turn, considering the factors I’ve mentioned here, plus of course their value in the game you are playing. You can apply the same principle any season – the names will change but the process remains the same.

That concludes this particular guide. As I’ve mentioned, I plan to provide another, hopefully before the end of the month which will apply this same principle to Forwards. Pop back in a week or so and see if my latest ramble is worth a glance.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

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