Having spouted no end of nonsense about the theories behind selecting Goalkeepers, Defenders and Midfielders, my fourth and final tips guide examines the fine art of selecting the Forward players that will win you leagues. The process I’ve gone through with these guides might be logical, but I can’t make the same promises about the content. Regardless, once again the article is full of my opinion on the players you have in front of you when you’re consulting that player list over the next fortnight so you might, just might, find something useful amongst the seveal thousand words I’ve written.

Selecting your Forwards for your Fantasy team used to be “make or break” for your team’s season. During the golden days of Shearer and Cole and then Henry, it was the area of the team that was more likely to win you the big points and therefore, the area of the team where the real big money was invested. That however, has changed over the past few seasons.

The emergence of the 15+ goal midfielder has led to the likes of Ronaldo, Lampard, and Gerrard being considered before that big name, expensive striker in Fantasy team selections. This has been compounded by the fact that there’s been an increase in the number of clubs that rotate their strikers, leading to a drop in the number of players who reach the 20+ goal mark. So it’s no longer just the big money buys up front that carry the successful Fantasy team throughout the season. Instead the Fantasy Forward line has become a source of reliable, steady points that supplement heavy scoring throughout the team. Finding a pair of top scoring forwards may not be “make or break” for your season, but the Forwards still remain a vastly important area of your team. Hopefully this guide will help you trim that player list down and point you towards the Forward line that will shoot you to Private League glory…or something.

I’m going to use the same methods that I described in my guide to Selecting Midfielders, that is the system of dividing the player list into tiers or a hierarchy based on their previous Fantasy Points return. This tier system allows each player to assessed methodically for value for money and potential Fantasy Points return over the coming season, using a number of criteria. The idea being that you can hopefully discover one or two players who are likely to move up a tier, therefore unearthing a bargain that will free up cash throughout your lineup.

It’s worth having a look over that guide to get the detail behind this system as I’m not going to go into the same detail here on the thinking behind the process. I am however, going to re-examine the factors that you should consider once you have created your player tiers, as they are some that play a more significant role in the selection of Forwards.

As I’ve mentioned in previous guides the key factor to consider when selecting a player is the number of appearances he is likely to make. The Fantasy Points return of a player relies heavily on the number of games he plays. This is even more the case for Forwards who often need a run of games and form to build confidence in order to reap you the big points. Therefore, the chief factor to consider when selecting your frontline, aside from price of course, is the potential for 30+ games.

If you take a look at my Selection Stats based on last season, you’ll see that only 12 Forwards played more than 30 games in the Premiership – they were Rooney, Drogba, Anelka, McCarthy, Yakubu, Agbonlahor, McBride, Johnson, Kanu, Martins, Bent and Heskey. Only Berbatov (30 games) Doyle (28 games), Kuyt (27 games), Viduka (22 games) and van Persie (17 games) scored heavily last season outside of this group. It’s clear then, that by finding a Forward who is likely to make 30+ appearances, you are increasing your chances of finding a heavy-scoring player and this alone, significantly narrows the player list. So, when you’re assessing our players our tier system, you first need to examine each player and assess their chances that they will achieve this 30+ game mark.

These chances are based on a number of factors namely the likelihood of injury, the likelihood of suspension and above all, the threat of rotation or losing their place. This final factor affects Forwards more than any other position. When a Forward is struggling for form and goals, a club manager quickly looks to solve this problem by relieving him of his place in the side. As I’ve mentioned, the rotation of strikers is something that has increased in the past few seasons, with most Premiership sides now arming themselves with 3-4 top class players to compete for these positions. Fantasy Managers don’t want to spend valuable transfers to rotate players – we need to find Forwards who are considered untouchable, giving them the opportunity to find the goals to earn us points. That means careful consideration of the player list.

Before we take a look at my tiers of players, I just want to mention briefly how I’ve formed this framework. I’ve done my best to base these on last season’s performance and points tallies across various Fantasy Football games, so the table below should be of assistance no matter which particular game you are playing. Such lists will of course cause some contention, so it’s important to stress that this is just my interpretation of a series of stats from last season. If for example, you feel that Kuyt or Keane deserve to be in the same bracket as Anelka or Bent then that’s fine – this table is just a starting point and the idea of this guide is to talk through a process that you can enter into yourself, using your own judgment of which players fit into each tier.

Now we have a basic starting point for our selection, we need to examine each tier in detail and make an assessment of those players who are likely to increase their Fantasy Points total based on the factors I’ve discussed.

As you can see, like the Midfielders Guide, only three players occupy my first tier. These represent the top scoring Forwards of last season in most Fantasy Games – Rooney, Drogba and Berbatov. This trio will all set you back a pretty penny when you’re building your side. They are however almost certain to be top 10 points scorers in most Fantasy Games come the end of the season, barring injury. The question is then, are they worth the outlay?

Drogba is again, likely to be the only player likely to hit the 20+goals mark. However, Rooney will more than make up for this points wise with the advantage when it comes to assists. Both should hit the 30+ appearances, although the Tevez situation could change this. If Tevez moves to Old Trafford, Sir Alex could rest Rooney more often before or after Champions League matches. To counter this, we know that Drogba will miss a number of games due to the African Nations Cup – possibly 4 matches in January/February. For this reason, I can see Rooney having the points advantage over the season in most Fantasy Games due to the difference in assists. As for Berbatov – he should increase his level of scoring by coming around the 15-goal mark and hitting double figures with assists. However, with Spurs boasting Bent, Keane and Defoe, rotation is a worry which leads me to believe he could be the most vulnerable player in this tier. If you Fantasy Game includes Cup matches, consider that Berbatov could well be rested for the majority of these.

Another factor to consider here when examining the merits of this trio of players are points for Man of the Match awards. If your Fantasy Game has these or Bonus points as a scoring mechanic then Rooney and Berbatov have the edge – Drogba will get the goals but will be overshadowed by the likes of Lampard, Essien, Malouda and Terry when it comes to Man of the Match awards. As an example, in the Fantasy Premier League game Drogba averaged 0.56 Bonus points per match while Rooney came in at 0.83 and Berbatov at 0.79.

Comparing the “Big Three” is difficult then, and which one you opt for will be greatly influenced by their price and how much flexibility that it gives you elsewhere in your overall team selection. If you’re going to spend big on one player, my current thinking is that a first tier midifleder (Ronaldo, Lampard or Gerrard) is currently a better option than a first tier Forward. Ronaldo outscored all Forwards in most Fantasy Games last season and Lampard also faired well against them. So be sure to check the value comparison between this pair and the big three forwards. Crucially I also feel that Ronaldo and Lampard are very difficult to match or beat for goals and therefore, it is hard to see a second or third tier midfielder to break into the first tier alongside them. In the Forward position there is a better chance that you can find a player to threaten Rooney and Drogba and break into the first tier – particularly this season when there are a handful of unknown quantities like Torres who could well emerge as contenders. We’ll look at those players in detail later, but to go back to my point. If you’re playing a game with a tight budget, at a push I’d opt for Rooney, but right now I favour spending the big cash on a first tier midfielder and look to get a high to mid price forward line from the second or even third tier. So let’s look at my second tier and see if we can spot some players who could similarly threaten the “Big Three”.

Of the second tier, McCarthy is perhaps the most likely to hit 20 goals having found the net 18 times last season. He’s drawback is that he offers little by way of assists and Man of the Match or Bonus Points. In the Fantasy League game this isn’t so much of a problem, so his goals alone push McCarthy into the first tier. In other Fantasy Games however, McCarthy’s selection will depend on price. He offers a very reliable source of points and coupled with another second tier or third tier Forward, could well form part of a very effective Fantasy Forward line. Certainly he’s guaranteed 30+ games and with Bentley and Gamst-Pedersen supplying the bullets he should get the chances again this season. The only slight doubt concerns how he’ll fair alongside new signing Santa Cruz. The arrival of the big striker could change Blackburn’s style of play which could impact on McCarthy’s form early on.

For me Anelka has the slight edge over him . He should improve once again this season, pushing himself nearer the 15-goal mark and contributing assists and the odd Man of the Match award along the way. There is also evidence that Bolton will be a more attacking side this season, employing a 4-4-2 in pre-season, which should boost not only Anelka’s goal output but also his assists. His place is assured, there is little chance of rotation and if Anelka settles his moods and commits to Bolton, then he is likely to threaten the first tier.

Viduka had an outstanding end to last season for Boro. However, he’s a Forward who has always struggled to register 30 games a season in the Premiership. Regardless, he still presents a very tempting proposition. He hit 14 goals and 5 assists in 22 starts for Boro last season and at Newcastle you’d expect him to improve on that, if he stays injury free. My only doubt is that his striking partner – either Martins or Owen, will change throughout the season and without a steady partnership, Viduka may not flourish as he did alongside the ever-present Yakubu. With so many changes to Big Sam’s lineup, it could take a month or so for Viduka to settle into Newcastle’s pattern as play, particularly as he’s missed half of pre-season through international commitments.

The other key figure amongst my second tier is Darren Bent. A proven 15+ goal Premiership Forward, the move to Spurs should boost his return. However, rotation is an issue at Spurs. If Bent gets in the side and gets 30+ games then he will, in my mind, move into the top tier alongside Berbatov, Drogba and Rooney. However, such is the striking talent at Spurs, that is a big “if”.

Elsewhere Yakubu is a streaky goalscorer who is definitely worth a look in the first two months of the season due to Boro’s rather kind treatment from the fixture computer early on. He’s yet to impress in pre-season though, so he’ll need to get a goal or two in the next fortnight before I’m 100% certain of his value from the kick-off.

Everton’s Johnson will need a partner – something he’s lacked since he joined Moyes’ side and with a fortnight to go, it’s still unclear who will be playing alongside him. For that reason, like Yakubu, he will have his goal streaks but I can’t see him hitting the heights of his season for Palace, at least until Moyes has brought in a strike partner.

Finally, van Persie could well be the most likely to break the top tier. His form sparkled last season but was interrupted cruelly by injury. His points tally will increase once more then, particularly when he’s likely to grab Man of the Match and Bonus points previously handed out to Henry. There are doubts hanging over him though. He’s likely to suffer at least one suspension, injury is always a concern with him, plus there is some worry about rotation and the position he is played in for Arsenal. If Eduardo finds a place in the side and some form, then van Persie could rotate with Adebayor on occasions, he could even be shifted wide.

For me, those factors are enough to relegate him below both Anelka and McCarthy – particularly as in most Fantasy Games, he is priced higher than both of them. If he is below these two in price in your Fantasy Game however, he should be snapped up – there’s a very good chance he will rival Berbatov for goals and assists. If he stays suspension and injury free and you can couple him with a reliable scorer, like McCarthy and Anelka, you will have a formidable Fantasy pairing. That’s a big “if” though, given his value in most Games.

The third tier seems to offer little by way of potential bargains. It’s populated by players like Kuyt, Keane, Zamora and Martins who will struggle to surpass last season’s goal tally due to competition for places in their respective sides. The tier is also the home of players like Saha and Owen who are both likely to be priced high, despite the risk of injury hanging over them throughout the season.

Tevez could undoubtedly offer great value. There’s little doubt that a move to Old Trafford will cause a mass scramble of Fantasy Managers towards the Argentine, but I’m more cautious about this. I’m yet to be convinced how Tevez would fit within the United game plan and would want to see how Sir Alex works his attacking personnel before investing – even with Tevez’s West Ham Fantasy price tag.

Agbonlahor is another who could improve his points tally this season but I feel he’ll have fewer games, so it’s unlikely. O’Neill made no qualms about stating how he wanted to rest and nurture the young Forward last season, so I feel he won’t get the 37 appearances he did then, particularly with Harewood, Moore, Carew and perhaps a fifth Forward available to Villa.

The one player that stands out from my third tier is Doyle at Reading. He had a superb first season, blighted by injury in the last few months. The general opinion, judging by his pricing in the Fantasy Games this season, is that he and Reading will struggle to hit the heights of last term. I’m not convinced. For me Doyle is a player who will get those 30+ games and with penalties and the likes of Lita and Kitson alongside him, he should match or better his goals and assists tally. He is another who falls into that reliable category. A Forward who is almost untouchable within his club and who had a goals per game record bettered only by Drogba, van Persie, McCarthy and Viduka last season. If he can get 35+ games next season, I can see him firmly established alongside the second tier Forwards.

The fourth tier contains a series of Forwards who provide supporting roles at their clubs or players who will struggle to hit that 30+ game mark that would enable them to hit the big points tally. McBride is perhaps the exception to this rule. He has been consistent at Fulham since he arrived and is a steady, if unspectacular choice for any Fantasy Manager. His place in the Fulham side is assured, particularly as he’s likely to be integral to Sanchez’s tactics. But his points tally will depend on their season – Fulham could well struggle early on with so many new faces.

Of those around him in this tier, Bellamy is perhaps the player who stands out. His talent is undoubted – he could easily hit double figures for goals and assists now he has a regular place in the West Ham side. The doubts over him are the risk of suspension and, to some extent, injury. The other problem is that he is priced in most games as a Liverpool player reducing his appeal as a possible bargain.

That brings me to the fifth tier – certainly the one to turn to if you’re looking to unearth a bargain. In here I’ve placed the likes of Kitson, Ashton and Luke Moore – all players who suffered injury hit seasons who will all get themselves promoted up the tiers for next season. Ashton is perhaps the most tempting – he showed bags of potential on joining West Ham the season before last and could well have 15 goals in him next season, injuries permitting. Early season however, he is a gamble. He’ll take time to get back to speed with the Premiership and hit it off with strike partner Bellamy, plus West Ham have one game less than most clubs in August. Reasons enough to leave him be for your initial selection.

As for the others in this tier – much depends on team selection. Kitson, Moore, Aliadiere and Derbyshire will all improve on last season but none look set to hold down a regular place that will see them get close to 30+ games. That may change as the season progresses if one of them takes an early opportunity. Right now, none of them offer the reliability required for that initial Fantasy team selection, unless you’re playing a squad game and looking to save cash. In which case Moore is my current choice.

Reliability is the key factor when it comes to considering the final tier – those players new to the Premiership. There are more new, big, exciting players in the Forward position than any other. This makes it very very tempting to dive in and snap up a Torres or Santa Cruz early on because of the media circus and expectation that will surround them as the season gets underway. The opportunity to spot Fantasy points potential is there, but there’s also a danger that you could make a rash investment and stay loyal to it for too long.

Sign an unknown quantity in the first few months of the season when he is bedding down and you could hold on to him through the lean first few months, only to lose patience and get rid just as he finds his feet and starts hitting goals. A better strategy with new overseas Forwards is to monitor their form and the number of games their getting at their club, then choose your time to transfer them into your side when that bedding down period is over. This is why choosing Forwards from the second tier becomes valuable. While these players won’t offer the spectacular points haul of Drogba and Rooney – they will be stable, regular goalscorers who can keep you ticking over while your prepare to pounce for the likes of Torres once he shows form. What’s more, the likes of Anelka and McCarthy are likely to be priced similarly to the new overseas forwards, which means you won’t have to juggle players to afford to transfer them in – it will be a straight swap that will save you transfers. More on that later.

The only exception to this “wait and see” policy I would make would be if one of the new overseas arrivals was undervalued by a particular game. This can often be worth a gamble if it frees up significant funds elsewhere in your lineup That can often be the case – look at Bianchi in the Telegraph game for example. Here he is priced at 4.8 million alongside the likes of Corradi, Walcott and Carlton Cole. In the Fantasy Premier League Game however, he is ranked more sensibly, alongside Doyle and Agbonlahor at 7.5 million. This makes him a decent proposition in the Telegraph given that he’s hit goals in pre-season already and scored 18 in Serie A last term. Worth a go, particularly if you have multiple teams.

While caution should be applied to new overseas talent, new arrivals to the Premiership from the Championship or below, is another matter entirely. Often these can reap huge rewards if you can strike gold with the right player. Finding this season’s Kevin Doyle could win you your Private League alone, as it will doubtless free up funds to spend on big guns elsewhere in your side. These players are a gamble, but certainly less so in a squad based Fantasy Game. The likes of Nugent, Chopra, Earnshaw, Howard, Forrsell and Kamara are all contenders for that crown, of which Earnshaw and Kamara stand out for me. Both could well be key players in sides that will struggle next season, but both could hit the double figures mark for goals. Nugent has the talent, the ony doub with him is just how many games he’ll get. Unlike Earnshaw and Kamara, he’ll have his place constanlty under threat from the likes of Lua Lua and Kanu.Chopra is also tempting. Unlike Earnshaw, he may find himself out of a season-long relegation fight, however, also unlike Earnshaw, he has very limited experience in the Premiership.

That concludes my brief look at the tiers as they stand right now. I will doubtless add to this article as new signings are made, so please pop back and see if any new arrivals have made me amend my views. To end, I want to touch upon the makeup of a Fantasy Forward line in terms of budget – how you allocate your cash to the position and how this can limit or free up your options over the season. In a game limited to 11 players you often have a choice of 2 or 3 Forwards. However, to simplify things, I’m going to assume you’ll find your forward pairing and work from their. In which case how do you allocate your budget?

It’s very rare that you’ll have the chance to go with 2 “High Price” tier one Forwards. But a “High Price/High-Mid Price” combination is very possible in which case I’d currently opt for the Rooney/Anelka pairing – at least while Anelka is staying put at Bolton. A variation of that, which will probably be more common, would be a “High Price/Cheap Price” option in which case I’d currently go with Rooney/Earnshaw or Rooney/Kamara. My preferred option right now however is a more balanced frontline with either two “High-Mid Price” Forwards being paired – Anelka/McCarthy or a “High-Mid Price” paired with a “Mid Price” – Anelka/Doyle. This not only frees up funds for “High Price” midfielder, it also gives me more flexibility in my transfers over the season.

If either of those Forwards falters early on – I have a wide choice of Forwards in the same price bracket to bring in. Also, if a Torres or Santa Cruz start hitting hatfuls of goals – again I can bring them in without having to free up funds from elsewhere in my side. Put yourself in the same scenario, wanting to get a free-scoring Torres into your side, but with a Rooney/Earnshaw pairing. How do you go about getting Torres? Sell Rooney? A big risk if he hits form in streaks – which he does. More likely, you’d have to sell elsewhere in your side and then transfer out Earnshaw – thus spending an additional transfer.

Form is a factor that has an impact on Forwards more than any other position. With that in mind, if you plan to be “hands-on” with your team, you need the flexibility to tweak your Forwards in order to find the men in form. With a First tier Forward in your side, you’re limiting your chances to swap in Forwards according to form, simply because selling on a Rooney or Drogba can seem to be too much of a risk when contemplating transfers. Lets face it, a run of hard games means little to Drogba and Rooney – they can score against any defence and this makes it more difficult to make the call on when they actual hit a bad spell. Rooney had a period last season of just 2 goals in 11 Premiership games – identifying that kind of dip in goalscoring form isn’t the difficult part, it’s having the balls to act on it that’s hard. If you sell Rooney or Drogba – such is the price difference from other Forwards, you’ll need to reinvest the excess elsewhere in your team. That means that once you sell these players – you’re likey to be selling them for a lengthy period of time. That makes the decision to opt out in periods of bad form all the more difficult.

On the other hand if Bolton have a tough set of games, or Anelka hits a run of games without a goal, the risk you’re taking in selling him seems smaller. You know you can swap in a man in form or with a run of easier fixtures because you’ll likely to be bringing in a similarly priced player. Therefore you know you’re able to make the change back to Anelka once his form returns. That kind of freedom in your decision making can make all the difference.

There’s also the fact that, if you have had to buy in a “Cheap Price” Forward to budget for Rooney or Drogba – this will also give you little freedom to transfer according to form due to budget restrictions. The conclusion of this wild hypothesis? Balancing the price of your Forward line gives you almost total freedom to juggle according to form throughout the season. That is of course if you want to be that “hands-on” with your Forward line throughout and have the transfers to exploit that freedom.

Thinking of your Forwards as a pair like this, rather than individuals, allows you to assess the value of your picks more efficiently. As an example – that Anelka/McCarthy pairing scored 304 points between them in the Fantasy Premier League game last season and you can get that pairing this season for £17.5 million. In order to match that points output based on last season with Rooney you’d have to pair him with another Forward priced at £7 million at least, meaning that you’d have spend at least £19 million compared to the £17.5 for the Anelka/McCarthy pairing. You could have course hunt for a £5.5 million bargain – and someone like Earnshaw could fit the bill, but he’s likely to need 120+ points to match the output of McCarthy/Anelka if that pair match their points tally from last season. This method of pairing your Forwards and assessing them together allows you to see immediately how a “High Price/Cheap Price” option compares to a “High Mid Price/High Mid Price” pairing and can be more effective than picking your Forwards as individuals.

That just about wraps up this guide, for now at least. This will probably be my last article of this kind before the season kicks off, however I may update this in the next fortnight as new arrivals to the Premiership come in or if someone points out that I’ve blatantly forgotten a top Premiership Forward from my table. I hope, like all my previous guides, that you got something from this. Once again, take it all with a pinch of salt. These guides represent my opinion on many matters that we could all easily argue about for hours if we all got together in a pub somewhere, sometime.

Thanks for working through this and my other guides and good luck for the season.