sakho at PSG last season.

in the league:
sakho was available for 34 matches of which he started 24.
breakdown:
one of the 10 non starts was the final game of the season where the league was already won and sakho and alex were benched.
9 of the 24 starts alex was on the bench.
thiago silva started every match he was available for, the only time he didn't start at centre back when available he played in midfield. so basically (as expected as he's a monster) it was always thiago silva +1.
the difference with alex is his benchings have a bit more context than sakho's, on the surface sakho started 24/34, whilst alex had a similar record of 22/31. alex's benchings however often come a few days after a champions league match, or 4 days after the cup final loss. quite a few of sakho's non starts however were on the back of injury or a red card where he struggled to immediately get back in. this is backed up when you see sakho only started twice in the champions league he only started twice. the first time was ahead of alex (their only loss in the competition), the second time was when thiago silva was out injured.

so last season it was a thiago silva +1 equation. the big european games and the cup final suggest when push comes to shove alex was the preferred +1, but it was certainly not a gimme. alex is an amazing CB but sakho knew he had youth on his side over alex (30 then, now 31). however now they've just splashed out a load on marquinos it's much more messi (although i can see thiago silva going to barca after the world cup unless PSG go very close to winning the champions league this season).

the sakho transfer fee is being quoted as £13-15m. it's big but not mammoth. i think the main question you need to ask though is would sakho have been benched at PSG last season if alex was toure/skrtel? i'd lean towards no. the whole left foot right foot thing isn't perfect (he only played once on the right side of defence last season for example) but i can't see it being a real issue, although if it means the non cup tied agger to barcelona in january it's a thumbs up from me 😉

couple of good sakho stats to add:
91.6% pass accuracy last season with 43.5 passes per match. liverpool may not be as dominant as PSG in their league but you'll always see rodgers' teams racking up the passes so you fancy him to pass the magic 30 mark most of the time.
was dribbled past just 3 times in his 27 apps last season. again liverpool wont be as dominant as PSG in their league but that's seriously impressive, it's half the total of thiago silva and alex in the same defence for example. more often than not a good sign of brains and/or sheer athleticism.

Anyone read Smurf's post on the last article? He really made a case for persuading me for using a 4-3-3 formation, anyone in favour of this?

It seems to be there isn't really a stand out budget midfielder for our fourth midfield spots, some if not a lot will disagree, but you can have three amazing mids without jeopardising your front three and get more value for money, plus 4 at the back seems to be paying off for many so far.

REVIEW OF BONY, ALTIDORE, ASPAS, ROONEY & SOLDADO!

Having done a total of 8 Youtube player analyses I thought I would take a look back at some of the more relevant ones to see how they are progressing. I'm excluding Carrick (not relevant to FPL), Van Ginkel (lack of game time), Lamela (not enough game time, new signing, only done last night).

7 of of my analyses can be found here: http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2013/08/15/the-scoutcast-episode-109-two-men/?hc_page=41#hc_comment_5260708. My analyses of Erik Lamela can be found under the scout report on this site posted yesterday, it is a stickied comment.

1. WILFRED BONY

Pre-season Comments:

From these clips you can see that Bony knows how to use his head and his fantastic link up play could help him form a lethal partnership with Michu. However, if you read between the lines you will share in my disappointment from seeing that this player who scored 40 goals in his last 2 seasons combined seemed to show very little in terms of taking long range strikes. In fact, many of the clips I did not show involved him using pace before slotting away a finish which was more towards the centre of the goal than either post. Thus I would expect GKs in the prem to save a lot more of his attempts. As long as the likes of Hernandez, Dyer & Routledge supply him with crosses, Bony could be a star. However he may struggle if the ball is constantly played into his feet and a comfortable partnership with Michu does not form in a consistent manner. Much like Demba Ba's decrease in threat once transferred to Chelsea.

Now:
http://youtu.be/gQNbwLFbndI?t=3m19s

His goal against United found in the above link shows that Bony is certainly capable of hitting the ball into the corners of the goal. A problem for him however is Laudrup's tendency to rest him after playing him in the Europa league, a worrying development for the striker.

1 goal in 143 minutes is not bad, especially considering the goal came against the current champions. However, in his most recent match Bony's average position was near the half way line, whilst Michu & Hernandez's average positions were slightly ahead of him, perhaps this is an indication that Bony is struggling to receive the ball in threatening positions and drops deep in order to receive it. Indeed, on average across the three games, Michu surprisingly has more touches and passes received in the opponent's half and final third by a significant margin (almost double in some statistical comparisons).

Furthermore, an attempt on goal on average per 28.6 mins is a slight cause for concern considering that he is beaten by other mid priced options such as Lambert (23.7), Dzeko (20.7) & Giroud (20.3). Also, having complimented him on his strength in dispatching shots with his head, Bony has only averaged 0.7 attempts in this manner which is beaten by the likes of Wolfswinkel (1), Dzeko (1.7), Giroud (2.3). This means that he is not being able to use one of the biggest strengths to his game which assisted him in his successful exploits with Vitesse Arnhem last season.

For now he does not seem a good option at £8m as alternatives like Lambert and Giroud have been showing more encouraging statistics and form respectively.

2. JOZY ALTIDORE

Pre-season comments:

Really wasn't expecting this, but after watching these clips I'm so very excited to see Altidore in the PL and am considering him as a differential striker for my team. He's a striker with a strong heading ability as I've seen from multiple clips (in a similiar fashion to Bony), he also has brilliant link up play ability (also similiar to Bony), however, what separates him from the fellow newcomer is the fact that he really knows how to use his feet to throw defenders off him.

Add a good level of strength, complete composure when under pressure and a fantastic finishing ability to the mix, and you have a very exciting prospect in your hands. Altidore can score in a variety of ways and in my opinion is head and shoulders above Aspas in terms of goal threat (both come in at a tempting £7m).

Almost all the goals I've seen show him shooting into the corners and so he is a very lethal finisher, in fact my doubts about the weakness of his league have subsided as the quality of his finishing and skill has been at such a level that I feel these goals would easily translate to the PL against better defenders. He really does seem to be an all round striker who is developing at a fast pace with consummate ease. I feel this season will see Altidore shine in the same way Benteke and Lukaku have previously (both these strikers also came to the PL from "weaker" leagues), although Sunderland really will need to step up to provide him the chances to thrive as he is a player who relies on his team to provide him with opportunities to score (similiar to both Bony & Soldado).

Now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVRyc3H2MG0

A disappointing punt during his "easier" fixtures - although out injured against Palace, Altidore has of course failed to score or even assist in either of his games thus far even though he has been afforded over 180 mins for the club. Of course this is based on a small sample size of just two games but the statistics should hopefully allow us to understand his adaptation to the PL a bit more.

Only just below Lambert in passes recieved and touches in the opponent's half and the final third, it is clear that Altidore is still being involved in the offensive flow of his team even if he is not finding an end product. His attempts in total and inside the box are almost half those of Lambert - a worrying statistic considering that he has been playing as the focus of his team's attacks. Another disappointing factor is that Altidore has had 0 headed attempts on goal, he like Bony seemed to have a great strength in producing quality headers and has also not been able to use this to his advantage.

Of course, with the absence of Fletcher, Altidore may not have been able to use his great knack of interplay to get into goal scoring positions. I feel as if in general Sunderland have failed to supply Altidore with the ammunition he needs - as Swansea have to a certain extent with Bony - and so he is definitely one to drop from your team until Sunderland as a whole pick up in their offensive exploits. The link above shows that Altidore is still obviously a composed and good finisher and so it will be interesting if he can use a partnership with Fletcher to pick up his form via his use of interlinking play.

3. IAGO ASPAS

Pre-season comments:

So what do we learn from Aspas' most recent season highlights (previous season clips were hard to find)? Firstly, he is definitely not an out and out striker in the same way Soldado and Bent are, he is very much a man who likes to drift onto either wing just outside the box. There are a few problem which were highlighted when viewing his goals, one of which is the fact that Aspas has an almost unerring manner of shooting straight into the middle of the goal. I really am disappointed in the lack of clear variation in his shooting direction and for 2 of his goals I could clearly see the keeper cursing himself as Aspas shot toward the keeper himself and was lucky enough to be rewarded for his effort. With the likes of Begovic, Mignolet, Krul, Vorm, & Foster in the league (not to mention the top 5 team keepers), I do believe Aspas is going to find his first season in the PL a frustrating one unless he changes this.

Another very worrying issue is that all the skills showed by him on pitch could be classified under close control, he doesn't seem to be the type of player who has a variation of skill in his locker when taking on a defender. On a scale between McClean/Valencia to Adam Johnson/Nani in terms of skill when approaching a defender, I would put Aspas close to the middle but just about on the side favouring the first two players. It seems he is very much an attacker he just runs to get away from the defender and pushed the ball away from them if they lunge at him, this means he would find it extremely difficult if ever doubled up on or facing a truly organised defence.

The fact 3 of his goals came from penalties, 1 from the goalkeeper's hand not being strong enough and another from a deflection hardly inspire confidence. Taking those away reduce his season tally to just 7 goals, and even 1 of those was a simply shot down the middle with a goalkeeper cursing his weak ability to handle a one on one situation.

I would steer clear of Aspas unless he began to show why he managed 23 goals in one of his previous La Liga seasons, considering he has lost penalties to Gerrard and will be on the wing as opposed to the central area, he is at a clear disadvantage to the likes of Berbatov or Lambert when weighing up your options.

Now:
Classified as a striker in FPL but played on the right wing for Liverpool, Aspas has had just 1 assist in 200 minutes. Surprisingly his average position across the 3 games is actually central rather than out wide but his involvement in play on average is worse than both Sturridge & Coutinho. Furthermore, although Coutinho has been lambasted for his lack of attacking threat, the Brazilian averages 3 goal attempts to Aspas' 0.7 (a hefty margin) and averages the SAME number of attempts in the box as Aspas, a player who is seen as more attacking in his goal threat.

However, when it comes to assist potential Aspas surprises us by creating more chances on average than Coutinho (28.7 mins per chance created to 43.7). This is still offset by the fact that Aspas has a disastrous rate of 100.5 mins per goal attempt compared to Sturridge's 28.5 mins.

Overall, Aspas is definitely one to avoid as other mid priced strikers such as Lambert and even Van Wolfswinkel (71.5) have less mins per attempt. As for being Liverpool coverage, with BAPS almost ignoring assists and strikers needing goals to justify their places in your FPL teams: Sturridge, Suarez & Coutinho are almost certainly the main protagonists in consideration for Liverpool coverage due to their significantly greater goal threat whilst Aspas takes a back seat as a very risky differential pick for the foreseeable future.

4. WAYNE ROONEY

Pre-season comments:

So what can we glean from this visual presentation of Rooney’s season? Well what seems obvious is that Rooney is still very capable of getting the goals to match and beat other great – but lesser – goal scoring talents such as Defoe and Ba. But as well as having a reasonably strong season as a striker, Rooney has thrived in United’s attack from a more withdrawn position too. He has been integral to their build up play in the final third and is very often involved in the final few touches of the ball before a goal – much like David Silva in his breakthrough season at City. He thus is very much a world class CF who can take on a goal scoring responsibility whilst helping his team in their attacking endeavours even when behind the ball itself.

Furthermore, Rooney has shown flashes of brilliance in his link up play with RVP and there is the hope that his second season could see him thrive as the supply man to the lethal Dutchman whilst being a goal scoring talent in his own right. It should also be noted that RVP also had numerous instances in the season where he scored a goal Rooney could have scored if the ball dropped to him at the exact time it came to RVP or another player in the box, I was only able to find a few examples of this as it would be too arduous a task to sift through every other United player’s highlights.

Having already compared him to Silva, I do not think it would be completely unreasonable to compare him to Valencia or Navas in his crossing ability and he should be able to provide ammunition for goals both from set pieces and from drifting runs out wide. It should be noted that he should benefit from Vidic’s return to fitness as the Serbian has a tendency to capitalise from set piece goal scoring opportunities.

Without going on too much of a tangent I do personally believe that Moyes made a bit of a mess which was publicly misconstrued as him downplaying Rooney’s importance to the team. I feel as though Moyes, as any manager worth his salt would, recognised that RVP was United’s main outlet for goals whilst Rooney was the overall engine of the United attack who also could score goals and has the possibility to take on a greater goal scoring responsibility should RVP get injured.

Finally, I feel he was on the cusp of challenging RVP last season. Even matched him in fpl points output when they played together. This season he may completely outshine RVP on value plus captaincy option combined due to that massive difference in price. captaining Rooney or Sturridge is a much more potent choice than RVP and Anelka! BAPS should also be taken into consideration, as I understand it, there is less emphasis on goal scoring and much more on overall team involvement. I feel Rooney would shine here as he is a strong passer (pass completion "PPI") and also is very involved defensively.

Now:
Do I still think Rooney will be the main engine of our attacks when fit? Yes. As a United fan do I still think Rooney has an important role to play in our attack during the season? Of course.

In just 118 mins Rooney has gathered 2 assists compared to RVP's 2 goals in 266 mins and his average positioning across his appearances is just slightly behind the Dutchman. Of course with the addition of a certain Afro bearing CM, Rooney will no longer have to fill in from a deep position and should no be given the freedom to attack at will.

Overall Rooney's involvement in United's play surpasses the Dutchman via touches and passes received. But he importantly competes with RVP on minutes per goal attempt average when taking price into consideration (31.8 to 21.2); whilst being behind in this regard he blows RVP out the water in terms of assist potential with 42.3 mins per chance created on average compared to the Dutchman's statistic of a whopping 276 mins per chance created. Rooney's creativity is understandably behind the likes of Silva and Cazorla (30.4 & 26.9 mins per chance created respectively) but is ahead of Hazard (47.3 mins per chance made) and only just slightly behind Coutinho (43.7 mins per chance made).

Of course, although Rooney looks like he could be an assist machine I seem to be wrong about the BAPS and Rooney will need to rely on his goal threat in order to rack up the bonus points. Having said that his shot accuracy thus far is an impressive 75% compared to RVP's 23% and so it seems he still has an eye for goal to work in cohesion with his playmaking strengths. I still believe that if fit throughout most the season (around 32 starts) Rooney could reach double figures both in goals and assists or at the very least beat the 20 goal + assists mark.

5. Roberto Soldado

Pre-season comments:

Well, after finishing this analysis I simply cannot contain my excitement. Watching these clips I was trying to come with a label for Soldado but I feel it would be a disservice to just give him one. Out of the numerous clips I did not include he showed excellent timing in his runs to score without pressure from the defence, really similiar in the way Chicarito capatilises on his own movement to score. However, Soldado also has great pace and uses it to great effect to leave defenders, combined with his excellent timing he goes above and beyond a player like Benteke as he really understands how to stay just onside before applying the finishing touch to a goal. Numerous clips I have seen showed him grabbing a goal where the defenders near him were behind him but he spotted an opposition full back out of place and allowing him to remain onside. The clips I have included show you he truly is a lethal finisher in addition to being an excellent poacher. A combination of RVP+Chicarito+Bent as a description of the type of player he is would be appropriate here (fantastic volleys and shots from angles + fantastic runs into the box to leave the defender clueless as he scores from close range + great positioning to score a tap in). Finally, it must be noted that Soldado is NOT a dribbling striker. He is not similiar to Aguero or Suarez in the way that they create their own chances and so he is very much just a lethal finisher who can occasionally set himself up for a great shot (not a bad thing at all!). In a team like Spurs he should thrive of the supply given to him and I feel he will be a significant upgrade to Defoe. In terms of value I see him rivaling Aguero in his breakthrough season by scoring at least a return of 16 goals when being modest (with a lower price tag expected - around the £9m mark).

Now:

Is there much to say? It's been established now that Soldado is like Bony in the sense that they definitely need chances created for them and the likes of Townsend and Chadli have failed to do that for him as they are more preoccupied with taking shots themselves. However, based on my analysis of Lamela last night and my upcoming analysis of Eriksen I very much hope his fortunes will improve as the new duo are play making talents (Lamela seems to be a pretty unselfish talent and has bags of skills to provide great chances rather than just relying on pace to produce hopeful crosses like Lennon). Already established as a penalty taker I think we should give Soldado another 3 weeks to prove himself whilst Lamela and Eriksen settle into the team and provide him with a good supply of ammunition, I've no doubt the Spaniard striker will rise to the occasion!

4-3-3 is being touted a lot as the formation of the season, and the reasoning is persuasive. Increased bonus returns for defenders and a higher rate of cleansheets so far, coupled with reduced returns so far for premium midfielders all support the argument.

But how long can this continue? Once a few of the new acquisitions start to gel in some of the top sides, and strategies form for breaking down the so far resilient defences of newcomers Cardiff and Hull, goals will surely return to the Premiership.

So what do we do? Set up to reap the rewards of today or plan for the coming revolution?

I think the answer lies in rotating between formations. Setting up with a cheap rotating pair / trio in defence as well as a rotating pair in midfield allows us to shift seamlessly from 4-3-3 to 3-4-3, should the fantasy wind suddenly change again. Flexibility is key!

Long boring post alert.

A walk through of what I see as an RVP Template

There has been a hell of a lot of good chat and analysis over these first three weeks and now into the international break on bonus points, new players and RVP to name a few hot topics.

I’m going to distil this to two basic points that have emerged and been reported here repeatedly (I do get the irony):

1) Defenders (centre back in particular) are both performing well (clean sheets) and are picking up bonuses making them more valuable than in previous years.
2) Creative playmakers (assists) are less profitable than goals

Based on these two principals along with the age old strategy of following the fixtures I going to build a template

So frisking the fixtures you can’t help but see of the big teams Arsenal, Liverpool, Man U, Tottenham are favourable.
Other considerations are that City and Chelsea are far too prone to rotation and not worth the headache.

So with a little presumption I pick the only realistic options from each

Liverpool - Migs, Agger, Sakho, Toure, Enriquez, Sturridge
Arsenal – Schezney, Koscielny, Wally, Ouzil, Giroud,
Man U – Vidic, Fellaini, RVP
Tott – Lloris, Vert, Kaboul, Dawson, Paulhino, Soldado

From these I will pick the core of my team.

STRIKERS, perhaps the easiest decision - The best 3 strikers based on form, fixtures and pedigree are Giroud, Sturridge, RVP. Sorted.

DEFENDERS, based on point 1 above, I want two decent defenders, preferably centre backs. I’ll go for Vidic and Agger as these two seem the best bets for clean sheets and are nailed on. The other three spots will be filled with bargains…. Pick from, Shaw, Clyne, Turner, Collins Yanga-Mbiwa, Whittaker (or similar) depending on budget and personal taste / collective bandwaggon pressure / price rises.

GOALKEEPERS I think that it has emerged to popular reception that Migs is undervalued, performing well and has great fixtures, you cant look past him. So pair him with a solid playing cheap option (Boric) and Im sorted for 10.3 mil

After picking 3 top strikers at nearly £32m and 2 top deffenders at £26m, 10.3 for the GKs this leaves 31 mil for 5 midfield players. I think this is the trickiest part. So I’ll strait having a go.

Midfielders - Too risky to get in any of the new signings so my first pick is Wallcott who has great fixtures and should benefit from the arrival of Ozil. 22 left. I think I have to concede that I need 2 cheap options so pick from 4.5/5.0 offerings (Ward-Prowse, Redmond, Barkley, Brady). This leaves £12.5m left. Bearing in mind I am likely to want to play 4-3-3 I will swing towards another cheap option leaving £7.5m to spend. Not an easy bracket to buy from so pick from Nolan or Barfa.

DONE. 2 weeks off now. Wake me up when this boring window has ended.

Any chinks in the logic?

Sorry to bore, welcome discussion….

With plenty of chat about going with a 4-3-3 formation on here today, I'm going to throw my two cents on the table.

Main arguments for this is 1) the new bonus point system is more favourable towards defenders than it is to midfielders, and 2) so far the high priced midfielders have failed to impress.

Those opposed to the idea of going 4-3-3 seem to argue that this season has seen a much higher number of clean sheets compared to previous, and that this trend can't last forever.

My opinion on the matter is that while I agree the new bonus system heavily favours defenders, I do believe the high amount of clean sheets we have been seeing will soon come to an end. However, I do believe the big teams will continue to see a lot of clean sheets, and that it will be the West Hams and the Evertons who start seeing their clean sheets disappear.

I believe that going with 4 big defenders at the back is a great option to go forward with, as fixtures and the new team set-ups will see these teams be tighter than ever, in my opinion.

Arsenal: A great run of fixtures for the foreseeable future, and spirits will be high at the club
Chelsea: Always going to be tight under JM, can see a lot of 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines
Liverpool: Nice fixtures and a great start defensively to the season
Man Utd: Fantastic fixtures (excl. City), and with Fellaini sitting ahead of the defence I can't see many goals conceded
Spurs: Again, nice fixtures and with Paulinho/Chadli/dembele sitting ahead of the front 4, they will be better than any previous Spurs defence we have seen

Taking who I think is the best option from each (taking into account price, bonus potential and goal threat), you could set up your defence as

Mignolet
Mertesacker - Terry - Vidic - Walker

Very solid, and all for just 29.2m (37.2 when you add two 4m bench fodders). This still leaves plenty of money to spend on your mids and striker, and it doesn't mess up your team balance at all. For example, you could still finish your team as follows

Walcott - Lampard - Michu - Brady - 4.5m
Benteke - Sturridge - Giroud

This allows you an extremely strong starting 11, and you have Brady to step up if one of your players fails to make the game.

To finish up, I can't see too many problems with going with this tactic. If I decide to go without RVP, I'm almost certain I'll choose to play 4 at the back.