Welcome to my latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results.
Captaincy Options
The names on the left-hand side are the leaders in FFScout’s captaincy poll (at time of writing), while on the right are the bookies’ fraction bets to score. On the far right are the decimal odds.
- Harry Kane 1. Harry Kane (4/6) 1.67
- Romelu Lukaku 2. Kevin De Bruyne (11/8) 2.37
- Kevin De Bruyne 3. Jamie Vardy (7/5) 2.40
- Mesut Ozil 4. Romelu Lukaku (7/5) 2.40
- Riyad Mahrez 5. David Silva (6/4) 2.50
- Odion Ighalo 6. Odion Ighalo (7/4) 2.75
- David Silva 7. Aaron Ramsey (19/10) 2.90
- Aaron Ramsey 8. Mesut Ozil (19/10) 2.90
- Ross Barkley 9. Ross Barkley (23/10) 3.30
- Jamie Vardy 10. Riyad Mahrez (5/2) 3.50
Leader in the captaincy poll and one of the shortest prices on offer this weekend, Harry Kane is a man in demand going into Gameweek 15. However, just one shot on target in his last two games isn’t encouraging. Nevertheless with Newcastle at home, he has the fixture to certainly rectify this stat. In terms of the bookies, he is too short in price to back. Despite Jamie Vardy sitting at 10th in the FFS Captaincy poll, he remains at a short price to score against Chelsea, certainly short enough to look elsewhere, in my opinion.
Captaincy Analysis:
1. David Silva (SWA) – Despite losing at the Britannia, Man City returned to winning ways in the CL and they face a Swansea side at the weekend who are currently managerless. A timely boost for City in the shape of David Silva, he offers a better price to score than De Bruyne this weekend and is therefore a great armband choice for those looking for a differential.
2. Odion Ighalo (sun) – The Watford striker continues to rack up the points for his Fantasy managers. He has scored nine goals so far and looks a good bet to score against a Sunderland side, which wil be expected to attack at the Stadium of Light. His partner in crime, Troy Deeney, has also hit some form; all signs point to points this weekend.
Clean Sheets
(in order, decimals on the right):
Liverpool (7/10) 1.70
Man City (19/20) 1.95
Tottenham (11/10) 2.10
Arsenal (23/20) 2.15
Man Utd (13/8) 2.62
West Ham (7/4) 2.75
Crystal Palace (9/5) 2.80
Watford (15/8) 2.87
Chelsea (2/1) 3.00
Southampton (21/10) 3.10
Stoke (21/10) 3.10
Sunderland (21/10) 3.10
Everton (11/5) 3.20
Bournemouth (13/5) 3.60
Leicester (13/5) 3.60
Norwich (13/5) 3.60
Aston Villa (9/2) 5.50
West Brom (5/1) 6.00
Newcastle (7/1) 8.00
Swansea (8/1) 9.00
The Matches
Odds for each team to win in brackets followed by a score prediction and mini-analysis:
Norwich (9/5) vs Everton (6/4) – 1-3 – Norwich are really missing a proper goalscorer and this showed in their defeat to Watford last week. Romelu Lukaku is the main man for Everton and with no Europa league distractions, he is set to continue to go from strength to strength.
Sunderland (15/8) vs Watford (6/4) – 1-2– Sunderland have improved under Sam Allardyce but the dynamics of the game could fall into Watford’s favour. It’s worth pointing out that Duncan Watmore offers amazing value (4.3) if he continues in a striking role.
Man City (2/7) vs Swansea (17/2) – 4-0 – No Kompany, no clean sheet right? I think this week they will get one! Swansea are in relegation form right now and with the side currently managerless, I fear goals will flow, just not for Swansea. David Silva is a huge boost and will be at the heart of an easy home win.
West Ham (13/10) vs Stoke (21/10) – 1-2– West Ham are without key players including Winston Reid, Victor Moses and Dimitri Payet and I think Stoke will continue their recent impressive displays by grabbing the three points here. Xherdan Shaqiri and Arnautovic to be amongst the points once again for the Potters.
Crystal Palace (6/4) vs Southampton (15/8) – 2-1 – Crystal Palace sit one place outside the Europa League and they face a Southampton side who quite frankly have been poor the last few games. Yannick Bolasie continues to look threatening for Palace and I fancy him to get on the scoresheet in this one
Bournemouth (12/5) vs Man Utd (6/5) – 2-1– After predicting Bournemouth to cause a shock last week, they entertain a goal-shy Manchester United having just been dumped out of the Champions League midweek. I fancy another shock this weekend. Manchester United’s lack of squad depth will cost them and Cherries striker Joshua King (4.6) could prosper.
Aston Villa (9/2) vs Arsenal (4/7) – 1-3 – Since a rugged 0-0 against Man City, Remi Garde has simply not changed anything for Villa, as the lack of any star quality in the team continues to cost them. Arsenal showed against Sunderland that they can grind out results. Aaron Ramsey at only 8.0 could be an absolute steal.
Liverpool (1/3) vs West Brom (8/1) – 1-0 – No one predicted Newcastle beating Liverpool but it highlighted how important Philippe Coutinho is to Jurgen Klopp. The Brazilian is expected to return and could prove instrumental if Liverpool are to snatch a win against a tough West Brom side that has picked up four points against high-flying north London sides, Arsenal and Tottenham.
Tottenham (1/3) vs Newcastle (8/1) – 2-0 – This is difficult to predict because of both teams’ inconsistent form. Wijnaldum continues to be the architect in Newcastle’s midfield but I think the home side will have enough, especially if Harry Kane can find his shooting boots after two poor games from the England man.
Leicester (19/10) vs Chelsea (11/8) – 1-1 – Monday night football comes to the King Power Stadium but unfortunately, Jose Mourinho and his defence comes with it. He is likely to adopt the same tactics that he used against Tottenham and bring along his massive, parked bus. Mourinho will respect free-scoring Leicester and will be happy to go away with a point.
Tip: Silva anytime + Ighalo anytime + Tottenham clean sheet @ 14.2/1
Last Week’s Predictions
Finally, a quick look back to see how last week’s predictions fared.
Gameweek 15
- Four of the top 10 FFScout poll captaincy options delivered attacking returns this week.
- A repeat of last week, only one of the top five most likely to keep a clean sheet did just that with a surprising six clean sheets coming from the rest of the field.
- Both highlighted captaincy options (Vardy & Ighalo) picked up attacking points this week.
- Only a Vardy goal was missing from landing the 11/1 treble tip.
