Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Chockky
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Heard a rumour Hazard could play this weekend? I didn't think he even be on bench for a week?

    have a missed some news on Hazard?

  2. Salahbrate
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Steve cook or smith?

    1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I went Cook

      1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        So go Smith 🙂

  3. Foozeball
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is there any risk in having Hudson-Odoi as a 4.5m bench fodder? Even if he doesn't play at all, is he still very unlikely to drop in price for a while?

    1. George Sillett
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Yes. Pick someone who will start. You will. only be wasting a transfer at some point.

      1. bobby_bookah
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        agree

      2. Foozeball
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Who might that be? Schneiderlin? Masuaku? Gunnarsson?

  4. pmletch
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Lacazette nailed?
    Can easily improve defence with the money saved from Auba

    1. Podge
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      In the tougher matches like city he may not start

    2. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      See the differentials article

  5. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    what does salah have to do in order to justify his price tag in your team? A goal really isn't enough is it? Realistically a goal/assist or brace every game/every other game.

    I am skeptical on whether this is going to happen, having likes of Eriksen, Mane and kdb/sane/sterling instead looking better by the minute. if only KDB/Sterling would be in contention for the weekend

    1. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Start with Salah. Easy swop

    2. Pasqualinho
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Averaging 6 or 7 ppg will do it for me.

    3. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      It's something like Salah + Richarlison (19.5) vs Mane and KDB (also 19.5) or even Mane and Sanchez if you can find an extra 0.5 (and you think Sanchez will do well). There's definitely a case; particularly if you get the captain calls right (though that's not easy).

    4. Podge
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Realistically he has to match or outdo last years score which I don’t think is likely

  6. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Looking at Shaw replacements as i'm just not convinced

    A) Bellerin (he is their best so can't be rotated right?)
    B) Burnley defence
    C) Luiz
    D) Stick with Shaw

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      coleman maybe fro attacking output only though

    2. Podge
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      D, maybe swap to Arsenal week 3-4

  7. Dosh
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is DDG essential? The possible upgrades with that extra 1.5m is really tempting!

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      No one is essential. Not even you.

    2. Podge
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      No a bit too dear

  8. Daniel Exeter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    1) Pedro and Firmino

    2) upto 6m mid and Auba

    1. Chockky
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      townsend and Auba? gudmunderson (burnley) another 6m

      I like firm but not sure on long pedro will play

  9. Isco Disco
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Sanchez or Hazard? And why?

    1. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      neither

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      sanchez def gonna play haz could make bench but doubt he'll be in from start

    3. Podge
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Sanchez for now

  10. Ings on the up
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Would you rather have...

    A. Mendy and Allison

    B. Ederson and Robertson.

    1. Isco Disco
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      b not much in it though

  11. Amateur Pundit Zan
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    The state of those differentials

  12. Saka White Rice
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is Charlie Daniels not nailedfoe the first couple of games? best defender for 4.5 that isn't tomkins?

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Should be for the first 3 cos the first choice is banned.

    2. krzys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      He's nailed for first 3. Then Diego Rico comes back after suspension.

  13. Andy_Social
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp said: "They are all in a different shape. Jordan Henderson is in and full of power but he has not been in long. Dejan Lovren will not be available for the weekend. We have little things to think about and if they are a risk or not.

    "We will have a fantastic football team on the pitch, I have a few decisions to make. Ragnar Klavan does not have a real chance."

    Hmm. Fabinho also out. Nothing on Matip. Does this mean Gomez in the middle and TAA starts?

    1. hjalmarekdal
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      What in this is indicating that Clyne wont start?

      1. Andy_Social
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Yeah, nowt. Just hoping TAA does.

  14. krzys
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Quick question:

    A) Robertson Mane B.Silva Zaha

    B) TAA Eriksen Townsend Firmino

    Cheers!

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A all day for me

    2. Hakuna Morata
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A for me.
      Apart from Firmino, I think A > B in every position.

    3. Shineonme
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A 100%

  15. Adro3
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Foster/Fab rotation or set and forget Fabianski with a 4?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      s and f for me, on Ryan at mo just cos of fabs opening fixtures

    2. slove
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Foster/Fab, I really don't like setting and forgetting a 4.5

    3. Hakuna Morata
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      what plans for the remaining .5
      I have to make my 5m mid to 4.5 to afford that. I am still confused whether to do or not :-/

      1. Adro3
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Have Cairney as a 5th mid so don't really need the extra .5 I would do that if I were you

        1. Hakuna Morata
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Even I have the same player Cairney 🙂
          I was also thinking on same lines. My another issue is I am very bad at rotating my players. Have often ended up with my benched GK scoring more points. But could give it a go this year may be

    4. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      S&F for me. If you're going to rotate, what's your plan? Always the home player, always the 'easier fixture'? I think you'll miss too many points.

      1. Adro3
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Good point.. usually get it wrong

    5. Podge
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Adrian says hi

    6. Hakuna Morata
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Also whom do you consider as the best set and forget 4.5 if there are any ?
      Is it Fabianski/Ryan/Patricio
      I was currently on the 3rd. No data to support that view though.

  16. Hakuna Morata
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Is Ramsey expected to start this week?
    If yes
    Ramsey + Tomkins or
    Richarlison + PVA

    1. krzys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Rich PVA

  17. Four Hit Wonder
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    More points in GW1?
    A) Mane, Hudson-Odoi, Gray
    B) Sigurdsson, Townsend, Sturridge

    1. krzys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      A

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      you can't really start with studge but think b might just nick it

  18. #FPLBhuna
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    thoughts?

    hart
    robertson - shaw - keane
    salah(c) - sanchez - mane - richarlison
    zaha - tosun - king

    fabianski - mendy - awb - gunnarson

    0.5m itb for king > arnie (ft) next gw if needed

    1. Hakuna Morata
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      would start mendy over Keane

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        ok cheers for the input - think that's a good shout actually

  19. Wetdream
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Few last minute decisions

    1.Davies,Bailly or Luiz ?
    2,Zaha or Arnie ?
    3,Pick 2 out of Richarlison Jota or B.Silva ?
    Thanks

    1. Adro3
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Davies
      Arnie for me
      Rich BSilva

    2. krzys
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Davies
      Zaha
      Jota Bernardo

    3. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      davies, tosun, jota, bilva

    4. Chockky
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      1> bailey
      2>zaha short term Arnie long
      3> Bilva and rich

  20. Tshelby
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    If fit is Chalobah nailed?

  21. pmletch
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    VVD or Robertson?

    1. XABI 15
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      both equally good

      1. pmletch
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        For points potential? Is Robertson nailed?

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      robby had better ppg last season vvd surely plays all games

  22. XABI 15
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Will Austin start this weekend?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      for me yes, but worried with ings coming in

  23. @fpl_phenom
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    TAA gonna start this weekend? come on someone must have some contacts ....

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Klopp's speaking now

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        no access to that where I am ... let me know if theres anything on TAA and clyne... cheers!

  24. McSauce
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Right I have 7.5m left

    Richarlison and spread 1m eslewhere or go with B.Silva?

    1. slove
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Who is the rest of your midfield ?

      1. McSauce
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 24 days ago

        Salah Sanchez Jota XXX Gunnarson

        1. @fpl_phenom
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 24 days ago

          Moura and gunnarson to Cairney.

    2. Shifty
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      Richarlison and KEEP da bank

  25. Shifty
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    No idea how i've used up 99m on such an average looking team haha. back to drawing board?

    Foster
    Mendy VVD Sakho
    Salah Mane Townsend Lucas
    Aguero King Arnie

    Patricio; Cedric, AWB, 4.5 Fodder. 1m banked.

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      sakho>4.5 (wolves/watford) don't fancy a palace double def
      cedric>4 maybe
      choose 1 4.5 keeper with a 4

      put all your money into midfield don't fancy lucas personally

    2. Podge
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      It’s not so bad

  26. paul1964
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    King all day. Ings is injury prone and might not start

    1. Andy_Social
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      He's not injured now and is match fit.

  27. MrFootieIsHere
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    Re-posting, please help:

    A (3-4-3):
    Foster
    PvA Robbo Mendy
    Salah Mane Bilva Richarlison
    Aguero King Arnie

    B (3-5-2):
    Foster
    PvA Robbo Mendy
    Salah Mane Bilva MKHITI Richarlison
    King Aguero

  28. chigumbura111
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    which team is better:
    team A:
    hart, fabianski
    cedric, kabasele, wan biassaka, darmian, daniels
    salah, mane, bsilva, richarlison, massuaku
    laca, kun, zaha

    team B:
    hart, begovic
    mendy, roberson, darmian, wan biassaka, peltier
    bsilva, mkhi, salah, risharlison, massuaku
    aguero, firmino, zaha

    thanks

  29. The Mighty I
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    What’s the consensus on PvA?
    Surely Palace will keep more clean sheets this year with Sakho in the lineup.
    Is it inconceivable that PvA might get closer to 10 goals?
    Or does the goal threat of Tomkins make him best value at 4.5?

    1. MrFootieIsHere
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      I've gone for PvA - always a good attacking threat!

    2. tiger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 24 days ago

      At the moment I have Tomkins, although I did have PVA in an earlier iteration...just needed the money to strengthen elsewhere.

  30. King Sheep
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 24 days ago

    When is Giroud expected back in the Chelsea line-up? ...... Is Morata nailed for first few games?