Spot the Differential
10 August 2018 3777 comments
DavidMunday815 DavidMunday815
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

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3,777 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. GianniBanani
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    This is donna be a differential one! Which one do you prefer?

    A) Mane, Richarlison, Moura + 0.5 ITB
    B) Mane, Richarlison, Bilva
    C) Sanchez, Townsend, Moura
    D) Sanchez, Richarlison, Jota

    1. bigbudgie
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      C is the most differential one, if that's what you mean

      1. GianniBanani
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        I meant options to choose can be diffo. Wonder how risky this C option would be. I really dont want to take hits to replace not playing 6-7 midfielders.

    2. BERGKOP
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B

      1. GianniBanani
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        cheers

    3. Ha.
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      What about Mane, Lucas, Bilva?

      1. BERGKOP
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Punty. If you thrive on risk then go for it. I personally don't like either Lucas or Bilva.

        1. Ha.
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 17 days ago

          Both will get game time early on at least

      2. GianniBanani
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Tbh i have no budget for this option. 23,5 is my limit

        1. Ha.
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 17 days ago

          Sorry, I misread your option A. Was thinking you had Mane and Bilva with Rich +0.5m

    4. Oooof
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B

      1. GianniBanani
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        cheers

    5. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B or D

      B

      Can you help me below??

      1. GianniBanani
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        cheers

  2. Typo
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Jota or Richarli?

    1. Baps Hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Jota probably

    2. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      both if not Jota for me

    3. Oooof
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Jota

    4. TheTinman
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Richarlison by miles. Proven asset in a proven team with a proven manager

    5. FPL_DON
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Rich

  3. ludaslol
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Kepa set to start at saturday, what do you think?

    1. DeathoftheParty
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Surely... No time for big willy style

      1. ludaslol
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        surely worth to consider?

    2. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Hard to tell.. But I'd say yes.

    3. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Hope so as i have him

  4. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 16 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    The smell of panic in the air

    Oh it's good to be back

    1. DeathoftheParty
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Breath it in.

    2. Oooof
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I’m not happy

    3. TheTinman
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      You ready for some good trolling this year?

    4. Sharkytect
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Will be comical seeing all the last minute RMTs being redirected to the rmt article

  5. DeathoftheParty
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Who is everyone's punt?

    I'm all over Moura, I give myself one a year... Last year was Salah over Mane... But then over thought it at Christmas and got Hazard and ruined my life.

    1. Typo
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Salah over mane is a far less punt than Moura i reckon 🙂

      1. DeathoftheParty
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        All well and good saying that 303 points later. But at the time Salah was an unknown quantity and it was a totally different story on here. Everyone backing Mane for days.

    2. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Townsend 😉

      1. DeathoftheParty
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Townsend would have been my second choice.

    3. CaTriEm
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Mitrovic.

      1. DeathoftheParty
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Like

    4. Dybala10
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      My lowest owned player is PVA but I would say Jota.

      1. DeathoftheParty
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Wolves is a weird one... Brought 12 players... Jota is definitely the pick though. Weird how this year you have newly promoted teams with 6.5m price tags. None of that last year...

    5. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Still think Mkhi could be a bargain at 7m

      1. DeathoftheParty
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Absolutely, he looks like a confidence player. If it's flowing and going his way a steal at 7m. Got him on the radar GW3 if Moura is a busy.

    6. Midlands Saint73
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Fraser and then I read this article and no doubt he won't be a differential anymore. Also Siggy of he counts as a punt.

      1. DeathoftheParty
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Siggy could be a new man this year. We all know the potential

  6. Typo
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Thats it, im going for Laca and Fraser!

  7. Snikii
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Best 4.5?

    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      mid*

  8. Bring the Cavalry
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Is King a definite starter now? Surely 2 poor games and in comes one of Defoe or Wilson?

    1. Tree House
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I think he is

    2. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      He starts in CF role , the other 2 are ST

    3. Bubz
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Defoe is like 50

    4. Bring the Cavalry
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Unanimous, hopefully brings back memories of the 16/17 season

    5. TheTinman
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Long live the King

    6. Brosstan
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Gonna be king + Wilson the vast majority of games. Defoe is too old to play full games

  9. Puyol Self Together
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Thoughts?

    Ederson - Ryan
    Robertson - Bellerin - Peltier - AWB - Bednarek
    Mane - Erikson - Bilva - Fraser - Cairney
    Aguero - Auba - Arnie

    0.5 ITB.

    Thinking Fraser -> Townsend maybe.

    1. BERGKOP
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Solid. But it should be without Salah

      1. Limbo
        • 16 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        How is that solid? 3x 4.0 defenders?!

    2. Limbo
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      You need to Puyol self toget...

    3. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Tempted by that rotating 3rd def. Not sure I'm brave enough.

  10. Tree House
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Final decision driving me mad:

    A) Mendy + Coleman
    B) Robertson + Coleman
    C) Robertson + Stones

    Thanks!

    1. Dybala10
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Not C.

      Toss of a coin between the first two.

    2. FPLShaqiri
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I'd go for B. Definitely Coleman over Stones

    3. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B. Walker and Delph isn't doing much last season offensively. If you're lookin purely for defensive return, any A or B. Still leaning towards B.

    4. GianniBanani
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      B for me

      Just Robbo is more nailed ofc than Mendy. I would wait and see how big fan of 352 Pep will be and when he's gonna play it.

      1. Tree House
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Thanks to all of you

  11. stamboy
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Is Shlupp nailed?

    1. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Not like Jesus on the cross but will do

    2. Limbo
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      90% I’d say. Fonsuh not same position so shuffle in CB role AFAIK

  12. MJM
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    What are the chances that Mina starts tomorrow?

    1. A.T
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Very slim

    2. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Does he even have work permit?

    3. The 12th Man
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Mina mil

  13. AC Tomasso
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Who is more nailed for first 3 weeks: Willian or B Silva?

    1. WVA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Bilva

  14. Jimjam
    • 15 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A) Bavies & Kabasele

    B) Bailly & Lowton

    1. FPLShaqiri
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Close but I like Bavies so A. Is there any reason Kabasele is your 4.5m of choice?

      1. Jimjam
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Already have Tomkins, so this is actually my 2nd 4.5m defender

  15. Me Spurs
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Bernard 6 mill potential bargain...

    1. Limbo
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Wait on it. Player like him may not hit ground running. GW2 maybe.

    2. FPLShaqiri
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Key word is potential - would love to get him in but need to give him the eye test at least

  16. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Anyone gonna have Kepa+4.0? Or waiting to see what ”Sarriball”looks like? Currently on Patricio+Foster...

  17. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Kun Zaha and Arnie good enough?

    Luiz for 5.5 def or PVA/Coleman/other?

    1. BERGKOP
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Yep. For the first few.

      Flip a coin. Luiz for that first fixture

      1. Atimis
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        I'm thinking Arsenal def maybe since GW3

  18. Dybala10
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Really wish we had a standout out option in that United defence (apart from de Gea).

    Would love to go for Bailly but was burnt last season and who knows if he plays over Smalling/Jones/Lindelof.

    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Shaw will start the season

      1. JustPark
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        And get sub at HT 😀

      2. Dybala10
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        2 games max.

  19. Demel
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Sanchez or Aubameyang?

    1. Snikii
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Auba

    2. BERGKOP
      • 15 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Sanchez

    3. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      neither

      1. BERGKOP
        • 15 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Aside from the obvious Pool assets, who would you suggest?

  20. n-doggg
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Anyone got the clean sheet odds?

    1. Demel
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I think there is an article on it. Wisdom of the crowds.

      1. n-doggg
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Great thanks

    2. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Hot Topics tab...

  21. Kalou
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Mcdonald of fulham likely to be affected by all those new signings?

  22. Typo
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Yellow flag on Bailly is too annoying

    1. Demel
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      I think he is fit and won't be picked by others.

  23. Merlinho
    • 17 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Is Bennett now unlikely to play? Chat has gone quiet about him, but thought he was still a good punt as £4m DEF...

  24. ClaudesMackerelelé
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    RMT please!

    Foster

    Mendy | Lovren | Mina

    Sane | Hazard | Salah | Schurrlè

    Aguero | Wilson | Jimenez

    Bench: Ogbonna | Puncheon | Wan-Bissaka

    1. David_23
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Hazard won't start, same Lovren and Mina is 50/50. Attack is a bit light in my opinion, try to get in some budget def and upgrade wilson to someone (King, Mitrovic)

  25. Taribo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Which is better?

    a) Robertson & WB (or other 4m)

    b) TAA & Shaw

  26. FPL_DON
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Only question I've needed to ask! (So far)

    A) Mane & Zaha

    or

    B) Firmino & Jota

    Any feedback is very much appreciated!

    1. nico05
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      A

      1. FPL_DON
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        cheers

    2. Ha.
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      A

      1. FPL_DON
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        thanks boss

  27. nico05
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Is it bad to have Wan Bissaka as a starting player? defence is made up f 4.5 mids / attacker? Happy with my team that's just my concern Cheers

    1. Limbo
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Risky for sure.

      1. nico05
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        That's my concern as well but happy with my team barring that

    2. Sᴄʜᴜ̈RRʟᴇ ⓝ
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Nah, he’ll start.

  28. Mooster©️
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    A) DDG, Firmino, Arnie
    B) Foster, Agüero, King

    1. Christina.
      • 16 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      DDG,Firmino,Agüero, King

  29. Differential C (Mark)
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    4.5m starting defender. Tempted by Chambers/Le Marchand of Fulham.
    This backline
    Rico
    Fosu-Mensah Chambers Mawson J. Bryan
    With Seri screening in front of em
    Look like could make Fulham difficult to score against.
    Thoughts?
    Chambers (4.5m) interesting.

    1. Differential C (Mark)
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Le Marchand could start the season. As he has more preseason minutes too.

      1. David_23
        • 8 Years
        8 years, 17 days ago

        Mawson's injured I think

        1. Differential C (Mark)
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 17 days ago

          Really? Cheers mate.

  30. GOONER
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 17 days ago

    Pickford starting GW1?

    1. JustPark
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 17 days ago

      Nahh