Heading into the festive period of fixtures our Scoutcast panel admitted to being “terrified” about the players they don’t own. So far it has proved prophetic as many FPL managers will have found themselves cowering behind their Turkey dinners in fear as Christmas turns into a nightmare.
In Gameweek 18 there wasn’t a single green arrow to be found amongst The Great and The Good and, as Greyhead reports, life didn’t get much better in Gameweek 19 with only four green arrows in total.
It seems they are “arguing amongst themselves as to who are the best big hitters. In Gameweek 18 whilst Ville Rönkä bought Aubameyang (£11.5m) Torres Magic was busy selling him. Even the previous untouchable Salah (£13.2m) has been kicked out of the template but then come back a Gameweek later.”
The Cisco Kid attempted to offer some guidance with an article on the 5 FPL Mistakes to Avoid this Christmas. They are worth repeating here:
- Avoid Taking Unnecessary Hits
- Don’t Remove Heavy Hitters for a Hit
- Don’t Try to Read the Tea Leaves
- Don’t Miss a Deadline
- Avoid Judging Your Decisions with Hindsight
The last point was picked up on by Fusen, calling it “the key to FPL sanity and rationality” remarking that “the game has HUGE amounts of luck.” Whilst it is undeniable that luck plays a huge part, it doesn’t necessarily explain why some managers are consistently more successful than others.
One such manager is Career Hall of Fame number one Jay Egersdorff, who last week neatly encapsulated how to do well at the game:
“Simple definition is you use your skill in an attempt to maximise your luck.”
So why have managers been so unlucky recently and is it down to a lack of skill?
One reason is benching the wrong defender. However as Adam Hopcroft pointed out – Digne’s (£5.1m) two goals came from two shots for a combined xG of 0.09, “Owners that benched him (me included) don’t be too hard on yourselves 😪”
Another reason is disappointing returns from a reinvigorated Manchester United. Despite the clamour for Manchester United assets following their 5-1 win away at Cardiff, most apart from 10.1% owned Paul Pogba (£8.1m) failed to deliver. Illness was blamed for the absence of Anthony Martial (£7.3m), who was transferred in by 275,247 disappointed managers ahead of the deadline. It seems living close to the Lowry Hotel does not mean he will join up with the squad late.
The pain of Martial’s absence was compounded on Thursday night. West Ham’s Felipe Anderson (£7.3m), sold by 166,386 FPL managers, scored two goals for a 15 -point haul in the final kick-off of the Gameweek.
Finally, City have lost three of their last four matches – a situation that given their scintillating form this season wasn’t anticipated. Many are at a loss to explain it with Guardiola stating that he needs to “change the dynamic”.
However, perhaps it is worth being patient. Hutch_James revealed in his Wisdom of the Crowd article yesterday that City should be the highest scorers of the Gameweek with a predicted 2.69 goals.
Yet the famously patient Ville Rönkä appears to have sold Sterling (£11.4m) after owning him for a mere two Gameweeks. It’s rare for Finland’s most famous FPL manager to perform such an abrupt volte-face, and perhaps offers some comfort to us mortals who also held onto Sterling. According to FPL Transfer Spy, the player he has replaced him with is Chelsea’s Eden Hazard (£11.1m).
Hazard is not a player to make it into our Gameweek 20 Scout Picks. Compiled by the Fantasy Football Scout editorial team due to the short turn-around, the wealth of assets on offer in midfield is reflected with a 3-5-2 formation. Can they match the impressive 85 points delivered by Gameweek 19’s selection?
The important question of captaincy is once again tackled by the excellent Captain Sensible article. Neale (aka Skonto Rigga), who put the article together, appeared alongside Joe in his regular video to discuss the best captaincy option for FPL Gameweek 20.
The pair were also on hand to cover the team news in their round-up of all the press conferences, with Neale adding an article to the site. It’s important to note that Manchester City are holding their press conference today, and that the press embargo on West Ham’s team news is set to be lifted at 1:30pm – half an hour ahead of the deadline. Check the website and FFS twitter account for last-minute updates.
To view all our discussions please visit our Hot Topics page, and if you’ve got some analysis, scout reports or features brewing, be sure to visit our community section to submit your article.
If you’re a member and are yet to get to grips with the custom statistics tables, you can view this movie for an explanation of how they work. Also, remember to tag them so that people can find the tables with ease.
COMMUNITY TOURNAMENTS
The latest cup results are in, and the draws for the next rounds of both the FFS Cup and FFS Members Cups have taken place. At this stage there are still 32 managers left in each cup, the finals will take place Gameweek 25.
In TorresMagic’s Last Man Standing the safety score in Gameweek 19 was 57, this saw 130 managers depart leaving 1,091 still standing. In addition to TorresMagic’s website, which carries the latest information about the competition, Ragabolly has set up a page on his excellent Live FPL website.
Miroslav Pujic is the new leader in our main FFS League and is fifth overall. This is his fourth FPL season, and he is improving each year – he came 10,316 overall in 2017/18.
Aleksander Våge Nilsen not only retains his lead in the FFS Live Hall of Fame but is the new leader of our FFS Members League. To make life even better for the Norwegian, his team – Liverpool – are top of the Premier League. He’s no doubt tucking into a hearty portion of Lobscouse!
This is Aleksander’s 11th season, his previous best finishes are 162nd in 2014/15 and 487th in 2016/17.
Rotation’s Alter Ego has regained the lead in the FFS Mods & Cons but Ragabolly is now only 2 points behind after a magnificent score of 117 (-4) in Gameweek 19. This is Ragabolly’s ninth FPL season, he finished an impressive 2,821st last year.
Luke Aiello’s lead at the top of RedLightning’s Top 10k Any Season mini-league is down to 16 points with Steve Cool leading the chasing pack. Luke is 33rd in the overall standings.
RedLightning’s January to May League will start scoring in Gameweek 21. Over 240 teams have already entered, the code to join is 1637-756.
The group stage of the FFS Manager Melee Community Tournament is now complete. Congratulations to the eight quarter-finalists – American Dycho, Claudio With a Chance of Modballs, The Big Bang Thierry, RoboKlopp, The Godfather: Pardew, Howe to Train Your Dragon, When ‘Arry Met Sarri, and Hughes Line is it Emery?
If you are running a community tournament and would like the latest scores included in future Community Round-Ups, please email us a summary of the current leaders and a link to your league, spreadsheet or head-to-head competition at geoff@fantasyfootballscout.co.uk
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