Spot the Differential

FPL differential Antonio has form and fixtures heading into Gameweek 34+

Once again differentials had a lot of success in Gameweek 33+.

Of the 14 players who registered 10 points or more, seven had an ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Leandro Trossard (£5.8m), Ross Barkley (£5.6m) and James Tarkowski (£5.2m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

There’s no shortage of differential candidates to consider this week, either, and this time we’re focusing on three low-owned picks who we like the look of for Gameweek 34+ and beyond.

Michail Antonio

  • FPL ownership: 1.0%
  • Price: £6.9m
  • GW34+ – 38+ fixtures: BUR | nor | WAT | mun | AVL

We’ve been big on Michail Antonio (£6.9m) for a while now, having included him in Spot the Differential ahead of Gameweek 28.

Now, having emerged from the restart as one of the league’s form players, we think he’s worth talking about again.

Since Gameweek 30+, Antonio leads the way amongst midfielders for shots in the box, whilst his three big chances is only bettered by Anthony Martial (£8.3m) and Sadio Mané (£12.4m). The expected data is also encouraging – the versatile forward sits top for xG (2.88) and xGI (4.03).

At Newcastle United on Sunday, Antonio was in the right place at the right time when another of our column favourites, Jarrod Bowen (£6.4m), squared it across the face of the goal. It was the former Nottingham Forest forward’s fourth goal of the season and the first time he’s scored in back-to-back games since April 2019.

With a point gained at St James’ Park, West Ham United are edging closer to Premier League safety and are starting to pick up some form with four points in their last two games. Interestingly, only six sides have registered more big chances than the Hammers since the restart, with two of them (Manchester City and Arsenal) playing an additional game.

With matches against Burnley, Norwich City and Watford up next, you’d expect the club to now push further clear of the drop zone.

Antonio has thrived as a lone forward for West Ham this season and is an in-form differential ready for those willing to move away from the midfield template.

Benjamin Mendy

  • FPL ownership: 1.5%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW34+ – 38+ fixtures: NEW | bha | BOU | wat | NOR

Having started four matches for Manchester City in all competitions since the restart, including the last three in a row, Benjamin Mendy (£5.5m) was rested in Gameweek 33+, and should be raring to go when Newcastle visit the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday.

Mendy’s time at City has been hampered by a persistent knee injury, but he has recently started showing flashes of his best form, providing width and energy on his flank.

Against Liverpool in Gameweek 32+, the French defender was superb. In fact, no player from either side could match his 37 opposition half touches, whilst he also provided several enticing crosses for his teammates.

Man City will be looking for a reaction against the Magpies, having now lost three consecutive away league games, and will want to secure a Champions League place for next season as soon as possible – providing the club are successful in their appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Mendy, owned by just 1.5% of managers, adds creativity to Guardiola’s team and has perhaps been a little unfortunate to earn just two assists this season. With some promising fixtures to come, Mendy has the potential to earn points at both ends of the pitch and could be an effective differential for the run-in.

Ismaïla Sarr

  • FPL ownership: 1.7%
  • Price: £6.1m
  • GW34+ – 38+ fixtures: NOR | NEW | whu | MCI | ars

Ismaïla Sarr’s (£6.1m) inclusion in this column is all about fixtures, rather than form.

Defeats against Burnley, Southampton and Chelsea have left Watford in a precarious position, just one point above the relegation zone, whilst they’ve found the back of the net on just two occasions since the restart.

Now, they have back-to-back home games, against Norwich and Newcastle, which will surely define their season.

It really does feel like it’s all or nothing for the Hornets now, and if they are to come good, Senegal winger Sarr will probably be central to it.

Since Nigel Pearson took charge back in Gameweek 17, Sarr has eight goal contributions in 14 appearances, which is a good return for a debut Premier League campaign in a struggling side, and ranks second amongst teammates for shots in the box and big chances over that period.

This is a player who has shown he has big performances in his locker. He was pivotal in ending Liverpool’s unbeaten run in February by scoring two goals and providing an assist in his side’s 3-0 win, and also contributed a goal and assist in Watford’s 2-0 victory over Manchester United back in December.

If Sarr can return to the kind of form he showed before the season was suspended, Watford have a chance of Premier League survival, whilst FPL managers have the opportunity to purchase a potentially explosive differential.

It just depends on which type of FPL manager you are: form or fixtures?

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 33+

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624 Comments Post a Comment
  1. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    6 months, 16 days ago

    Greenwood in for?

    A Vardy
    B Auba
    C Jimi

    1. jamiejoe
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      C

    2. The EJJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      B

    3. Pépé Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      B

    4. coolmule
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      6 months, 16 days ago

      B

  2. Le _ Professeur
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 16 days ago

    Got 1 FT .. any thoughts ?

    Currently thinking of Saving the FT, perhaps giving more flexibility to downgrading Auba next week.

    Martinez
    Holgate - Aurier - Doherty
    Martial - Salah - Mahrez - Son - Antonio
    Rashford - Auba

    Bench: Ryan - Connolly - Lascelles - Simpson

    1. The EJJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      Son -> Bruno?

      1. Booked4Dissent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Absolutely!

  3. Badger Badger Mushroom Mush…
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 16 days ago

    Bench boosting this GW. G2G?

    Henderson McCarthy
    TAA AWB Boly Lascelles C.Taylor
    Salah KDB (c) Mahrez Foden Bruno
    Jiminez Ings Greenwood

    1. The EJJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      Good team, good luck!

  4. Pépé Pig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 16 days ago

    Mane -> Sterling (-4). Yay or Nay?

    1. The EJJ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      for free i reckon yes but for -4 i'm not sure, Mane can still do well

    2. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      6 months, 16 days ago

      No

    3. Geraaaard
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Hell yeah

    4. Bruce Lee
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      How maverick is too maverick?

      Out of 11 players, how many players would you go for that are outside of the template?

      1. The EJJ
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        don't worry about maverick picks, it's more about the combination of players you have

        1. Bruce Lee
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Yeah a combination of Maverick and Template picks...

      2. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Forget that thinking. Pick the mix of 11 players who will score the most points.

        1. Bruce Lee
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          If I knew the 11 that will score the most points I would be rank 1...

          1. GreennRed
            • 9 Years
            6 months, 16 days ago

            So try and pick it. Most players are popular for a reason.

      3. Le _ Professeur
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        2-4 for me

      4. CONNERS
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Perhaps 3 or 4 if chasing, otherwise just 1 or 2.

    5. Bruce Lee
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      When is the next PL season due to start?

      1. jamiejoe
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        September, to be confirmed.

    6. Sancidino
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      Is selling Salah madness?

      1. The EJJ
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        not madness as there looks to be more fluid teams than liverpool out there. but i think you've got to accept that he can haul any game if you get rid so can't be too salty if that happens

    7. JenkoJunko
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      I wish you could play two at the back! Just saying.

      1. The EJJ
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        meet my friend the all out attack chip...

        1. JenkoJunko
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          I'll have one of those every week please!

    8. mikess
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      Pope
      TAA / Gomez / Boly
      Son /KDB / Martial / Fernandes / Foden
      Rashford / Jimenez

      Button / Ings / O'Connell / Lascelles

      1.8m itb

      Benching Ings as he's due a rest I think

      Is anything worth a hit? Can have a decent upgrade with the 1.8

      1. The Count of Monte Cristo
        • 8 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Nothing there needs a hit this week - looks good. Captain KDB?

      2. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Save

    9. manu4life99
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 16 days ago

      Pulisic Rash > Sterling Greenwood?

      1. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        6 months, 16 days ago

        For free?

        1. manu4life99
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Yes 2ft

      2. CONNERS
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        I would.

      3. Nedvěd11
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        GO

    10. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      6 months, 16 days ago

      Goalkeeper with more points til the end:

      A) Ederson
      B)Pope
      C)Henderson
      D) Dubravka
      C) Guaita

      1. Geraaaard
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Pope

      2. CAPA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        I watched Kane at Sheffield Utd and thought he had a few chances, could easily have scored more. So I brought him in for last night and the run of fixtures incl Bournemouth next. But I was really disappointed with him last night, absolutely no threat at all.
        Wondering now whether Son is a better prospect than Kane if having some Spurs attacking presence at Bournemouth - or if no Spurs presence and Pulisic (or other) instead is a better prospect.
        Would appreciate some help? Thanks

        1. GreennRed
          • 9 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Spurs not playing well. As poor as Bournemouth are they've still a chance to survive, scored two against a decent United defence and are unlikely to make Spurs look too much better.

          1. CAPA
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            6 months, 16 days ago

            Yes, was a really poor game last night

        2. CAPA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Does anyone else have any views on whether Spurs attacking players are essential for Bournemouth and beyond or whether there are better options for the price of Son or Kane (not MU)

        3. CONNERS
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Spurs players are anything but essential imo. I would get an extra City mid, some big scores likely in the next few.

      3. CONNERS
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Do you think Alonso has lost his place or just rested last GW?

        1. CAPA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Hard to say, was playing poorly by all accounts

        2. CONNERS
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Thanks. Will probably get rid next GW.

      4. ChipsnGravy
        • 3 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Best 5m or under defender for the run in..... Won’t play much but need to get something from BB at some point. Thinking Keane or Taylor? Any other suggestions?

        1. CAPA
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Keane is more than £5m?

          1. ChipsnGravy
            • 3 Years
            6 months, 16 days ago

            Yeah sorry, you right about Keane. Thanks all for your suggestions got some thinking to do!

        2. CONNERS
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Baldock, Aurier, Saiss?

        3. GreennRed
          • 9 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Holgate, Lascelles, Egan, Saiss

      5. Booked4Dissent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        6 months, 16 days ago

        My line up for GW 34, feedback please:
        GK: Pope
        Def: Doherty, Saiss, TAA
        Mid: Mane, Bruno (vc), KDB (c), Mahrez
        Fwd: Jiminez, Rashford, Greenwood

        Bench: 1) Foden 2) Robinson 3) Lacelles

        1. zm82
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          It is difficult to bench Foden, he can explode.

        2. Plonatron
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Would be tempted to play Foden over Jimenez

      6. Jellyfish
        • 8 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        G2g?

        DDG
        TAA Kiko Doherty
        Mane Pulisic KDB* Foden Bruno
        Rash Jimi

        1FT & 2.4 banked

      7. MattysFantasyFooty
        • 7 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Who to get in for Alonso, Current defence is

        Pope Patricio
        Van Dijk Alonso Aurier Lascelles Saiss

        1. CONNERS
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          I'm wondering the same. Maybe Laporte or Digne or get a cheapie and use funds elsewhere.

        2. Mattias
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Azpi?

      8. gaus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Who are the best Watford defender this week? can not afford Dawson

        1. potatoace
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Dawson seems the only one guaranteed more than 60mins each gw

      9. CONNERS
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        What price do you think Greenwood will be next season?

        1. potatoace
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          6.5m.
          Depends on summer transfers.

        2. CONNERS
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Would be a shame if he lost his place to some Alexis Sanchez type replacement.

      10. Mattias
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        It feels obvious (I think) but is Martial & Joelinton to KDB and Greenwood worth a -4? I just hate taking hits

        1. CONNERS
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Any other way of getting them in. Losing Martial for a hit seems wrong.

          1. Mattias
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            6 months, 16 days ago

            My thoughts too.

            Mahrez or Mane are the other options to go... I fancy the city double up for Newcastle though, and Mane's away form can be hit and miss, but that would leave me without a Pool attack (which I think is on the decline now anyway).

            Urgh decisions

        2. Plonatron
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          6 months, 16 days ago

          Why did you have Joelinton anyway? 😀

      11. Lokomotivvv
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Any suggestions for my team?

        Ederson/Henderson
        Saiss-Doherty-Lascalles-J.Robinson-Lundstram
        Martial-B.Fernandes-KDB-Sterling-Pulisic
        Jimenez-Rashford-Nketiah

        Tempted to do Jimenez+Henderson-> Vardy+Button since Jimenez‘ form
        Is declining, but is it worth a hit?

        Could also take a hit and do Henderso+Lundstram->Button+TAA/VVD/Aurier-Azpi or any other defender

        What would you do in my situation...need to chase in my mini league

      12. Saulus_maximus
        • 9 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Now you've told everyone my differential

      13. Gabriel Agbonlahor
        • 9 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Bench Boosting this GW..which one is top priority?

        A) ASM ➡ Foden
        B) Holgate ➡ Taylor/Egan/Cresswell

        Henderson McCarthy
        VVD Aurier Doherty Robinson ___
        Bruno Martial Mahrez Pulisic ___
        Rashford Kane Vardy

      14. Whits
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Which combo? (I already have Rashford and Bruno)

        A. Antonio, Foden and D Gea

        B. Fabianski, Martial and Saka

        1. ChipsnGravy
          • 3 Years
          6 months, 16 days ago

          A

      15. ChipsnGravy
        • 3 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Saka/Williams > Martial/Dunk

        For a hit this gw or for free next gw

        Getting annoyed with Williams taking up a Man U spot!

      16. Montydog1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 16 days ago

        Pope
        Taa doherty aurier
        Martial jorginho cantwell salah kdb
        Jimi rash ings

        1 ft

        Any ideas on how to get bruno??

        Nil in bank