Spot the Differential
11 September 2020 2172 comments
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The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

As always, we’ve selected three players with an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing, who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Christian Pulisic

Willian and Pulisic make case for Chelsea double-up with Norwich on horizon
  • FPL ownership: 6.6% (4.8% at the time of writing)
  • Price: £8.5m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: bha | LIV | wba | CRY | SOU

Despite a slow start, Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) enjoyed a fine first season at Chelsea, and hit top gear upon the Premier League’s resumption back in June.

The United States international contributed a combined eight goals and assists in just nine league appearances during Project Restart, and went on to score in the FA Cup final defeat to Arsenal.

That kind of output suggests a big campaign lies ahead.

In yesterday’s press conference, manager Frank Lampard confirmed Pulisic is in contention for Monday’s trip to Brighton, and with an ownership of just 4.8% at the time of writing, could be an explosive differential for those willing to gamble on him starting. Saying that, an appearance off the bench might not be the end of the world for owners, considering his ability to haul from limited minutes, as evidenced at Anfield last season.

The Blues’ opponents in Gameweek 1, Brighton and Hove Albion, head into the season with plenty of optimism themselves after a busy transfer window, though it’s worth noting they shipped 11 goals in just three home games against Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United during the restart, while doubts linger over their ability to keep things tight against the best attacking setups in the league. 

Following the arrivals of Kai Havertz (£8.5m), Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m) and Timo Werner (£9.5m), competition for places at Chelsea is fierce right now. However, we think this could have a positive effect on Pulisic, who could now take his game to another level and thrive alongside such quality.

James Ward-Prowse

  • FPL ownership: 4.7%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: cry | TOT | bur | WBA | che

James Ward-Prowse (£6.0m) may only have registered nine attacking returns last term, but with the Saints going from strength-to-strength, we’re backing the England international to kick on this season.

A product of the Saints academy, Ward-Prowse has become a vital part of manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s midfield unit, and played every minute of the club’s 2019/20 Premier League campaign. 

It has been suggested the departure of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (£5.0m), and re-introduction of Oriol Romeu (£4.5m) to the starting XI, will give the Southampton captain a bit more freedom to get forward, which is encouraging, but there is no getting away from the fact his ability from set-pieces and delivery from wide areas is the main attraction.

Ward-Prowse whipped in a massive 72 crosses from Gameweek 30+ onwards, more than any other player, while his 20 shots ranked joint-ninth amongst midfielders. Add to that free-kicks, corners and a share of penalties with Danny Ings (£8.5m), and we think there is a lot to like here. 

After a disappointing start to last season, Southampton performed well once Hasenhüttl had settled on his 4-4-2 / 4-2-2-2 system. Their away form was only bettered by Liverpool and Manchester City, while just the Manchester clubs collected more points during Project Restart.

The Saints are unbeaten in their last five league matches on the road, and take on a Crystal Palace side in Gameweek 1 who have won just four games all calendar year, all of which bodes well for Ward-Prowse and Southampton’s prospects this weekend.

Dele Alli

  • FPL ownership: 3.3%
  • Price: £8.0m
  • GW1-5 fixtures: EVE | sou | NEW | mun | WHU

This season feels like a defining moment for Dele Alli (£8.0m), after another disappointing campaign last time round.

However, his performances under Jose Mourinho in the early weeks of his tenure offers hope he may be able to find his best level again. 

Under Mourinho’s stewardship, there was an immediate improvement in Alli’s output, which saw him go on a run of four goals and three assists in five matches, while his underlying statistics suggest he may be being overlooked.

Since Mourinho’s first game in charge, amongst midfielders, only Raheem Sterling (£11.5m), Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) and Sadio Mané (£12.0m) accumulated big chances at a faster rate. His expected goal data was also encouraging, and trumped that of team-mate Son Heung-min (£9.0m), despite seeing fewer minutes.

While I’m unsure how much we can read into pre-season, Alli’s displays have offered promise, having registered two assists in a 3-0 home win over Ipswich Town before scoring in a 4-1 victory at Reading.

Up first for Tottenham Hotspur is Everton. While the Toffees’ will no doubt look a much better unit with their new midfield recruits, it may take time for them to gel, while their poor away record last term saw them concede 35 goals – only five teams gave up more.

Heading into the new season, it is vital for Alli to keep himself fit and find a bit more consistency in his performances. If he can do that, while retaining an attacking midfield role, he could be in for a big season.

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2,172 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. subhojit123
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    How nailed is Wilson?

    1. JelliedSpark968
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      surely he is first team. He's their best striker hands down

      1. subhojit123
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Ok..thanks buddy.so I guess he's gonna start

    2. asquishypotato
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Best they’ve got only slight he concern that takes me away from 100% is that he hasn’t been with them long - considering their other options though...

  2. Cheeto__Bandito
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Coady or Vinaggre and 0.5?

    1. JelliedSpark968
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Vinagre and .5

  3. Denno
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    GTG?

    McCarthy / Steer
    TAA / Saiss / KWP / Justin (Mitchell)
    Salah / Auba / Son / ASM / (Bissouma)
    Ings / Werner (Brewster)

    Worried about Ings pick, feel like Che Adams might be the better value?
    But where to reinvest the extra cash, would drop Brewster and get 3 playing forwards, is Adams and a 7.5m FWD better than Ings and Justin playing at the back?

    Hopefully Brewster gets a move, if not he'll be gone when wildcarding anyway

    ????

    1. Warby84
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      What about Calvert-Lewin and invest 1.5 back in?

      1. Denno
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Appreciate it!

        Still feeling burnt from post restart DCL last season, reckon he could be a good pick, but struggling to feel 100% picking him again

  4. asquishypotato
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    I don’t mind twitter for all the opinions and general guidance, having a wide source of voices can be useful (as well as detrimental)

    HOWEVER, my least favourite thing is seeing people post their team and lazily @everyone they can think of - it’s worse then the RMTs when prices and fixtures were not even released!

    1. JelliedSpark968
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      It's similar on the subreddit - people just post their teams then don't help anyone else in the RMT threads

      1. asquishypotato
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        It’s the half arsed ‘ThOuGHtS?’ Underneath a post that has nothing to do with rating a team

  5. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 16 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Burnley team v Maritimo today

    Pope, Bardsley, Tarkowski (c), Long, Taylor, Gudmundsson, Brownhill, Westwood, McNeil, Rodriguez, Wood.

    Subs: Peacock-Farrell, Lowton, Brady, Pieters, Vydra, Dunne, Thomas, Benson, Norris.

    1. Jafooli
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Peacock-Farrell-Wagon

      1. Limbo
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        That's my East Coast Eskimo-Gangsta Rap name

  6. Kudo Warrior
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed:

    Welcome any comments for my GW1 team (Likely WCing in GW2):

    McCarthy
    Michell Doherty Maitlend Niles
    Saka Salah Son (C)Auba Sain-Maximin
    Kane Werner

  7. Raheem S. Archer
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    A) Trent + Davies + Rashford (Playing 3 out of Davies + 4.5 + 4.5 + 4.5)
    B) Robbo + 4.5 + Bruno (Playing 3 out of 4.5 + 4.5 + 4.5 + 4.5)

  8. Big Ronnie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Bets £5m def?
    A) Davies
    B) Dier
    C) Egan
    D) Saiss

    1. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      *best

    2. Jafooli
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Egan

    3. JelliedSpark968
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      C,D,A,B

    4. Cheeto__Bandito
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A

    5. @persecuted_by_mods
      5 years, 10 months ago

      B
      D
      A
      C

    6. BERGKOP
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      C

    7. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Few different answers there. Thinking i'll go one of the spurs and Vinagre back in

    8. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Cheers all btw

  9. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Steer or Nyland will start for Villa?

    1. asdf_1
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      They will get martinez from arsenal. As for now, most expect steer to start.

    2. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Steer i think from comments on here

    3. JelliedSpark968
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I think Steer will start, but there's no certainty

    4. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 16 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I’d Steer clear 😉

    5. Old Wulfrunian
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      cheers all.

    6. Dynamic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Villa are set to sign Martinez from Arsenal

  10. asdf_1
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    When is ferguson expected to be back and will he play instead of mitchell?

    1. Wild Card this!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 17 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      No idea and no, not Mitchell replacement. PVA is.

  11. 1justlookin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Back on Vinagre after NES presser.

    😀

    1. Pompel
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      What did he say?

      1. 1justlookin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Just that his new players need time to adapt.

    2. luk46
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      what did he say?

      1. 1justlookin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Just that his new players need time to adapt.

    3. TheRationalPai
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      They could still sign Telles though?

    4. Bubbles1985
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I didn't see him say anything about Vinagre?

      1. 1justlookin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Just that his new players need time to adapt.

  12. Don Kloppeone
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Bottomed

    Am I done? Or back to the drawing board because no Spurs mids?

    0.5itb
    McCarthy
    TAA, Davies, KWP
    Salah (C), Auba, Havertz, ASM, Soucek
    Werner, Ings
    (Steer) (Mitchell, Brewster, Taylor)

    Prob use 0.5 to do Ings > Martial next week. If Havertz fails I can just move back to Son/ Alli fairly easily

    GL all!

    1. PapaWengzz
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Gonna starts 2 out of Soucek, Taylor and Kwp every week?

      1. Don Kloppeone
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Yeh don’t see why not. KWP could be Vinagre but he’s less nailed.

        Alternative is Alli over Havertz and switch KWP > Egan

  13. Mr_Barbs
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Best option for this team?

    Ramsdale, Steer
    Mitchell, TAA, Robbo, Vinagre
    Salah, Auba, Soucek, Bassouma
    Mitrovic

    A) Buur, Havertz, Wilson, Werner

    B) KWP, Havertz, Wilson, Martial

    C) KWP, Saint-Maximin, Martial, Werner

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      C

  14. sirmorbach
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Any chance Gordon starts GW1 for Everton? Would rather have him over a defender

    1. Limbo
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Nope. Tight fixture away + lots of new signings in MF. Can't see him starting.

  15. Milk, 1 Šuker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    For me Vinagre plays if Marcal needs bedding in?

    1. Big Ronnie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Yep, back in my team for a few weeks then can reassess

  16. Thinkering like a Boss
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Thought? lock my final draft

    Ryan
    TAA • Davies • KWP • Justin
    Salah • Auba • Son • ASM
    Werner • Mitrovic

    Walton | Mitchell • Greenwood • Davis

  17. Scout
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    1) mane, martial and Gomez
    2) B Fernandes, martial and robbo
    3) Rashford, martial and Trent

    Which one is best for the long run?

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      3

      1. Scout
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        Reckon no mane or salah then?

    2. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Really tough! Probably 2, although scary not having TAA.
      United could keep pace with Pool in terms of goals scored, and Bruno/Martial are so much better value than Mane/Salah.

      1. Scout
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I know right just whether it’s worth not having mane or salah. Been stuck on this for days haha. I could get Trent but would have to play with two 4.5 m def

        1. Milk, 1 Šuker
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 10 months ago

          Nothing wrong with that mate. There is plenty of short-term value in the 4.5s

          1. Scout
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 10 months ago

            Which 4.5? Justin and a Burnley def?

            1. Milk, 1 Šuker
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              5 years, 10 months ago

              Justin for now. Pereira is weeks away from a return according to Rodgers

              1. Scout
                • 8 Years
                5 years, 10 months ago

                What about the second 4,5 def? You think going without a liverpool mid is fine? Not too risky?

                1. Milk, 1 Šuker
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 13 Years
                  5 years, 10 months ago

                  Consider an Everton, Wolves or Leicester defender. I’m not sure about going without a Liv mid. I’ve thought about it but could be risky.

                  1. Scout
                    • 8 Years
                    5 years, 10 months ago

                    Yeah I know that’s what I’m thinking. Do I want to risk not having mane or salah and having two Man Utd assets

                  2. Scout
                    • 8 Years
                    5 years, 10 months ago

                    Thanks for your help

                    1. Milk, 1 Šuker
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 13 Years
                      5 years, 10 months ago

                      No worries buddy. All the best for the season!

    3. pwill40
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      2

  18. rozzo
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Good to go?

    Lloris
    TAA Egan Saiss
    Salah Auba Havertz Soucek
    Jimenez Ings Mitrovic

    Button Bissouma Johnson Mitchell

    1. Thescaff
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      One of those teams that looks like its over budget!

    2. luk46
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Lloris not worth the money imo, would go 4.5 and upgrade Soucek; not sure about Havertz.

  19. umerlfc
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Is steer vs nyland sorted out?

  20. JelliedSpark968
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    For the bench:

    Best 4.0m defender?

    Best 4.0m GK?

    Best 4.5m midfielder?

    1. Corona is not good 4 U
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      In my opinion: Mitchell (Palace), Nyland (Villa), Bissouma (Brighton). Hope that it will help.

  21. Corona is not good 4 U
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Is this team okay?

    Ryan, Nyland
    Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Walker-Peters, Vinagre, Ayling
    Aubameyang, Salah, Son, Saint-Maximin, Bissouma
    Werner, Wilson, Mitrovic

    Thank you!

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Gomez > Tierney perhaps?

  22. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Have Ryan as sub after McCarthy or leave 0.5itb?

    1. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Leave itb

    2. Thescaff
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Itb

    3. JelliedSpark968
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      0.5 ITB

  23. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Which option?

    A) DCL + 1m
    B) Richarlison

    1. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      A

  24. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Wilson or Adams?

    Both have good fixtures.

    Wilson, despite his poor season last year, probably edges it, right?

    1. JelliedSpark968
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Wilson

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      wilson

    3. Scout
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Wilson

  25. Ziyech on the Bench
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    How she looking fellas? Plan is to WC week 2:

    McCarthy / 4.0

    Egan, Doherty, Justin / Vinagre, 4.0

    Mane, Auba (c), Son, Bowen, ASM

    Werner, Ings/ 4.5

    Cheers all and gl!!

  26. H-SF
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Who is with me on no Salah?

    1. Thescaff
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Trouble is he's best gw1 captain

      1. Jimbo-Jones
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        This. And his ownership if he hauls, given most will captain.

      2. JelliedSpark968
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 10 months ago

        I agree. At home to Leeds is a great fixture for them

    2. Thinkering like a Boss
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      My captain gw1 so NO

    3. pwill40
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I’m spartacus

    4. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I'm with you.

      A 12.0 player I'm not likely to captain for the early game weeks. Plus, hasn't looked at his best post lockdown or during preseason.

      l would rather spread those funds around.

  27. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Is Bruno worth the £1.5m over Martial?
    Allows upgrade of fodder to JWP for better squad.

    1. Thescaff
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Only if you want to captain a utd player soon

  28. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Does the Vinagre news change anything? He's still at risk of being sold

    1. Thescaff
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      I'd avoid, think there may be signings / formation change

  29. Nicks93
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    Start the season with Havertz or Pulisic ?

    Thanks

    1. Thescaff
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Havertz is fit

  30. FPL Scoop
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 10 months ago

    But is Vinagre or Justin the better option to start with?

    1. Thescaff
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 10 months ago

      Justin