The biggest Double Gameweek of the season – so far – is almost here and in this piece, I will be discussing some of the questions posed by Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
Who are the top three Arsenal picks for Double Gameweek 26? (@MansijJain)
Let’s have a look at the Arsenal numbers over their last six matches, starting with their creative stats:
As the above image shows, Martin Odegaard (£5.5m) is the clear creative fulcrum of the team with 16 chances created; he is also top for big chances created and expected assists (xA). Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m) and Bukayo Saka (£6.4m) also have decent distribution numbers, though it is a bit alarming that despite being second for chances created (11), Lacazette is only fifth for xA (0.59). Kieran Tierney’s (£5.1m) chance creation numbers are quite low as well, just three key passes and 0.19 xA.
In terms of goal threat, Lacazette leads the way for non-penalty expected goals (npxG, 3.03) with Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3m) in second (2.87). Martinelli’s suspension for the first game is a huge blow to Fantasy managers as these numbers exhibit what a great option he could have been. Saka’s npxG (1.29) is less than half that of Martinelli.
With Martinelli’s suspension, I think Saka offers excellent value at just £6.4m, while Aaron Ramsdale’s (£5.1m) virtues are well known, so they would be my top two picks by far.
The third one is between Tierney/Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.3m) or Lacazette and I favour the striker in this case. Only three players across all positions have registered a higher npxG than the Frenchman over the last four matches and no player has recorded a higher expected goal involvement (xGI, 5.20). It does depend on the structure of your team, though, and who you are selling.
If you were looking to Free Hit in Gameweek 27, do you think it’s worth moving Gabriel Martinelli on for Bukayo Saka or other midfielder to target Gameweek 26 – especially as Arsenal may have a double on the other side from Gameweek 28 (@AmanTalksFPL)
Martinelli’s numbers are fantastic, as can be seen in the aforementioned images. Personally, I look at every transfer as four points and I think Martinelli, even with a single fixture this week at home to Wolves, is a decent option. The fixtures beyond Gameweek 27 are also great, when he becomes the outstanding Arsenal attacking pick. So even with a single match this week, I would just keep Martinelli as he is great longer term.
I’m planning to play Gameweek 27 straight up and Free Hit in Gameweek 30. Which players who double in Gameweek 26 and play in Gameweek 27 are worth a -4 points hit this week? (@FPLWahoo)
The Fantasy Football Scout Season Ticker is a great place to start with this.
Burnley are rated top of the ticker for the next two weeks, with Palace, Spurs and Wolves also having a good run. I would look at Wout Weghorst (£6.5m) if he is fit but none of the other assets from Burnley can be really recommended; maybe Nick Pope (£5.4m) or James Tarkowski (£4.9m) at a push.
I don’t fancy Palace, with rotation in the front three and Conor Gallagher (£6.2m) being ineligible to face parent club Chelsea. Spurs could be decent, especially in attack with the Leeds game in Gameweek 27 looking particularly enticing.
Wolves have options both in defence and attack, so my picks would be Romain Saiss (£5.0m) and Raul Jimenez (£7.4m).
Would you sell David de Gea for Aaron Ramsdale if you had Ben Foster? (@kevkods)
Manchester United have not got any doubles planned for the short term, whereas Arsenal are likely to have another double in either Gameweek 28 or 29 and also have a great run of fixtures in the run-in. Ramsdale is a bonus point magnet and I think his potential for bonus makes him the best goalkeeper in the game. I think he outscores Ben Foster (£4.1m) significantly and it is worth making the transfer this week, even for a hit.
How many extra points would you want your Free Hit team to make in order to make it worthwhile? If you’re putting out 10-11 solid players in Gameweek 27 and committed to a Free Hit in Gameweek 30, is it worthwhile holding onto the chip for future blanks and doubles? (@FPLCorbs)
This question is really team and strategy dependent (whether you have one Free Hit or two) but I will try to answer it the best I can. You’re effectively going to be benching about £25-30m of your budget with Mohamed Salah (£13.0m), Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) and probably an Arsenal midfielder. So far we have only three confirmed fixtures for Gameweek 30 and none of them particularly stand out as matches that are ‘bankers’ for points.
There are several of these in Gameweek 27, though – Manchester City play Everton after having an entire week off, Spurs face Leeds, Southampton take on Norwich, Manchester United play Watford and Burnley have a double. So while I do think it is quite possible to ride out this week without the Free Hit, I think if you have two of these chips, there is enough potential there. We also think that Arsenal will have another double in either Gameweek 28 or 29, so that allows you to maximise coverage there.
Personally, I feel Gameweek 30 can be managed with 6-8 players. It’s about quality, not quantity.
But, if you’re looking at a number, I think anything over 25 points would make the Free Hit worth it. It is hard to quantify the impact it would have around the Free Hit week, though. A Free Hit in Gameweek 30 gives you the freedom to buy players irrespective of whether they play in 30 or not.
Who are the best three forwards for Double Gameweek 26? Wout Weghorst, Joshua King and Raul Jimenez? (@MartinJBraunton)
Lacazette would be right up there in my opinion, for the reasons mentioned earlier. I think Jimenez could do well, too, as Leicester have the worst underlying defensive numbers in the league and the Mexican is so involved in everything they do. For the third spot, it would have to be Harry Kane (£12.2m). A lot depends on whether you plan to Free Hit in Gameweek 27, of course.
Something keeps bothering me: Southampton. They have great fixtures, albeit only a single in Gameweek 26, and are very attacking. Shouldn’t we be taking more notice? (@FPLis_life)
This is something all of us have been guilty of over the last six Gameweeks: tunnel vision with regards to Double Gameweek players. Bringing Armando Broja (£5.4m) in this week is a great option as an enabler even without a double. The Saints have a great run of fixtures starting and if you are looking not to Free Hit in Gameweek 27, I’d definitely be thinking about bringing him in, even over someone like Weghorst.
What’s your chip strategy for Gameweeks 26-30? (@FPL_Turbi)
Here is my team as it stands. I have one free transfer and £0.8m in the bank. Ignore the captaincy for now.
Salah will definitely be coming in but I am waiting for news on Diogo Jota’s (£8.5m) injury. If he is ruled out for a period, then he will be making way; if not, it will be Bruno Fernandes (£11.7m) who will be departing. I currently have three players with a confirmed fixture in Gameweek 30: Ramsdale, Saka and Lucas Digne (£5.1m).
My initial plan was to do Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) out to Lacazette to fund the Salah upgrade and then Fernandes to Salah and Triple Captain for a -4. Then I would Free Hit in Gameweek 27 so I would have triple Arsenal for their likely double on the other side. Unfortunately, I can’t do Jota to Salah with the funds generated (£0.1m short!), in which case I would likely go for Jimenez.
Whichever way I go, I will be adding another player who plays in Gameweek 30. My plan currently is to get another 2-4 players over Gameweek 28-30 who play in Gameweek 30 and avoid using my Free Hit chip then. This is not set in stone, though: if we do get more fixtures added in Gameweek 30 which have potential for points, I might choose to Free Hit then.
We will be discussing chip strategies, picks and more on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire. Check it out when it drops here.
