Sleeper

FPL 2022/23 ‘sleeper’ picks: Callum Wilson

The ‘Sleeper’ series returns to the Fantasy Football Scout pages this summer.

In these articles, we assess the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) players who failed to live up to former glories last season.

First up, Callum Wilson (£7.5m).

With Eddie Howe an initial success in the Newcastle United hotseat and the Saudi money being splurged on more acquisitions, we assess whether Wilson can push his way back into our thoughts as an FPL asset.

All the stats for this piece are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can get a whole heap of benefits for just £2.49 a month.

2021/22: FPL RECORD AND STATS

Kane and Wilson enter FPL differential conversation ahead of Gameweek 9 3
  • Starts: 16
  • Substitute appearances: 2
  • Goals: 8
  • Assists: 0
  • FPL points: 75 (4.2 per match)

Wilson played a part in less than half of Newcastle United’s fixtures in 2021/22 and his injury record will be a recurring topic throughout this article.

When he did make it onto the pitch, he delivered: he found the back of the net on eight occasions in just 16 starts, delivering 0.52 goals per 90 minutes – an average beaten by just two first-choice FPL forwards, Cristiano Ronaldo (£10.5m) and Jamie Vardy (£9.5m), both of whom cost considerably more.

The more expensive Vardy, Ronaldo and Harry Kane (£11.5m) were among the few players in Wilson’s Fantasy position who averaged more points per start, too:

 1

The underlying stats are less impressive, however.

A total of 28 other FPL forwards shot with more regularity than Wilson, while he languished 22nd for expected goal involvement (xGI):

Rank v other FPL forwards (minimum 10 apps)
Minutes per shot29th
Minutes per shot in the box24th
Minutes per shot on target18th
Minutes per penalty box touch19th
Minutes per chance created43rd
Minuters per expected goal (xG)14th
Minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI)22nd

Even the successful change of manager didn’t boost his numbers too much (his minutes-per-chance average, for example, was 39.2 under Steve Bruce and 40.3 under Howe), although we’re looking at small sample sizes in both cases.

As usual, he had to rely on his clinical streak in front of goal: only Vardy (27.8%) had a better shots-to-goal ratio than Wilson (22.9%) among first-choice forwards in 2021/22.

FPL PREVIOUS

Making the most of what few chances fall his way has been something Wilson has made a habit of.

As a general rule of thumb, a goal conversion around 20% or above is quite clinical – something Wilson has achieved in five of his last seven seasons, if we take the liberty to include 2016/17:

SeasonShot-to-goal conversion rate
2021/2222.9%
2020/2124.5%
2019/2014.5%
2018/1921.5%
2017/1815.1%
2016/1719.4%
2015/1629.4%

His record at Newcastle overall is pretty elite, with 20 goals, six assists and 204 FPL points arriving in 39 starts. String that record together over the course of one campaign (minus the 39th game!) and you’re into ‘Team of the Season’ territory, although ever-present status has been a pipe dream when it comes to Wilson.

The former Cherries hitman was similarly third among forwards for points per match (see below) in his debut Newcastle season in 2020/21 but again missed a third of the campaign through injury:

 1

2022/23: THE FPL PROSPECTS

Is Callum Wilson the best FPL forward under £8.0m? 2

Whatever Wilson has acccomplished as an FPL forward in the past has generally been for a side at the wrong end of the table: in his seven seasons as a Premier League player, six of them were for a bottom-half club.

So there’s a little bit of intrigue as to what the former Bournemouth striker could achieve with better service and in a team targeting something greater than top-flight survival, something that will surely be the case in 2022/23 should Newcastle’s summer spending continue.

The Magpies’ goal threat indeed improved after they made their series of January acquisitions, with their xG per match rising from 1.0 to 1.4.

Matt Targett (£5.0m) was one of the leading chance creators in the division among defenders after the winter window, while we barely got to see Kieran Trippier‘s (£5.0m) undoubted assist potential due to a fractured foot. Ryan Fraser (£5.5m), Wilson’s sparring partner and creator-in-chief at Dean Court, was also excellent from February onwards.

Newcastle could probably still do with a real key pass merchant in midfield, however, a la Christian Eriksen.

While the service and ambition might be on the rise on Tyneside, that still leaves us with Wilson’s off-putting injury record.

His glass hamstrings will simply make him a no-go for some Fantasy managers (he has struggled to shake off the ‘troll’ tag for years) and he is a option who ought not to be bought without an accompanying exit plan.

Still, there are few (maybe no) other mid-price forwards available in FPL who have been as reliable for goals as Wilson when he has made it off the treatment table.

A lot of Fantasy managers pursuing a forward around this price will be plumping for Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m), whose Arsenal side have a very decent opening schedule.

But while the Gunners sink to third-bottom on our Season Ticker for fixture difficulty from Gameweeks 8-15, Newcastle are right at the top.

The Jesus to Wilson switch at this juncture, then, might be worth a thought – if he’s not in the physio room, of course.



674 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Mighty Hippo
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    I'd appreciate comments on this draft please

    Raya
    TAA | Cancelo | James | Trippier | Cash
    Salah | Diaz | Martinelli
    Haaland | Jesus
    ---------------------------------------
    Balcombe | Neto | Andreas | Greenwood

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Really like it, though I would say that as I’m on something similar! One difference is I’m really tempted to take a change of direction and go for one of the premium keepers after their price drops - but your squad looks solid

    2. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Fine.

    3. EgyptianKing
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Strong! I like it.

      I would prefer to start Neto ahead of Cash and have Tomyiasu 1st on bench instead of Cash. Nailed Arsenal costing 4.5 with those fixtures can’t be ignored imo.

      I like him a lot as a player, but honestly I am not 100% convinced with Martinelli as an FPL asset.

      But overall very strong draft

    4. el polako
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Would you consider Chilwell over James ?
      James can occasionally be deployed as CB when Chilwell is always a LB with licence to bomb forward.

      1. Zimo
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah I have to agree. Chilwell over James. Also what's the point of having Neto if you're gonna bench him. He's only useful as an enabler to make the rest of the team strong. Not really a strong option on his own.

        1. Andy_Social
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          In my set-up, Neto is either the 11th or 12th man, i.e. starts or first bench depending on fixtures. He's cheap and good enough to play most games (for the first 6 before you sell him) but doesn't have to be nailed in the Starting XI.

    5. Andy_Social
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Excellent, can't fault it.
      Cash has great opening fixtures, nothing wrong there.
      However, you do have a problem GW3 when Trippier and Neto have games you'd rather not play either of them in.

  2. mad_beer ✅
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Am I the only one who thinks Jesus and Diaz are traps? Arsenal have a way of turning strikers into donkeys.

    1. el polako
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Nah, that's Chelsea you're talking about.

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      No. I saw a video of Jesus scoring a couple of goals. He’s in!

    3. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      There's a few, but I think Jesus will fit in well & Diaz will get around 180pts

    4. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I can see why people are picking both of them and if they do fail, there's always the option to transfer them out. Plenty of other options around their prices in their positions. Diaz looked electric to me last year. Jesus I am less sure on I don't know how good a finisher he is.

      1. Andy_Social
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        I do have slight doubts over Jesus. I wouldn't call either 'traps' as such, but I don't have either because I like my current Starting XI more.

    5. Piggs Boson
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I think Diaz has been exaggerated a bit, but I still think he's decent value, and the best player at 8.0m.

      Jesus for me depends on penalties. If he gets them, he should be decent value, but if not, a 2nd 8.0m midfielder might be better...

  3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Testing ... 😐

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Blimey!

      1. Andy_Social
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        You didn't!!?? 😯

    2. OPTA FPL
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      wow where have you been last decade?

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        I've been here,
        And I've been there,
        And I've been in-between ... 😉

        1. OPTA FPL
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Thought you retired with Noble...

        2. Piggs Boson
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Hi Doosra!

          A second account? Were you Maximus?! 😯

    3. mad_beer ✅
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Who are you? 🙂

    4. Black Knights
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Woah!!! How's your health dude? Well?

    5. Old Man
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      he's back!!!!

  4. OPTA FPL
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Official news for Perrera and Neco William already FTW

  5. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Who is the regular Chelsea penalty taker, please? 🙂

    1. OPTA FPL
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Sterling for sure

      1. Zimo
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        He's the worst penalty taker I've ever seen. I'd be surprised if he gets them

        1. No Professionals
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Not sure I’ve ever seen sterling score a penalty at the first normally relies on tapping the rebound in

      2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        He is the penalty OBTAINER! 😆

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Jorginho

    3. Zimo
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Jorginho

    4. Herger
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Jorginho

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks to all.

    5. @persecuted_by_mods
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Feels strange not seeing Mark Noble

        1. The Knights Template
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          It is Mark Noble!

      • The Mentaculus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Jorginho is right, but could be Mount if he's not on the pitch

    6. Kobayashi
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Which one would you prefer?

      A. James, Diaz and Jesus
      B. N. Williams, Rashford and Kane

      Think I can probably guess this one, but just want to double check!

      1. farmerfat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        A and its not even close.

      2. Fish up a tree
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        A

      3. No Professionals
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        That’s not an a or b option, it’s and a or z option.

        1. OverTinker
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          This

      4. Kobayashi
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Ha, thanks all!

    7. K.Jabba 88
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Perisic fantasy gift or trap?? So undecided if to have him

      1. OPTA FPL
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        50% ownership already

      2. @persecuted_by_mods
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Leaning towards trap based on how Conte last used him but things can change

        • Andy_Social
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          I kinda see him as both. Just make sure you have cover.

        • The Mentaculus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          There's definitely haul potential if he starts, but honestly I wouldn't be too surprised to see Sessegnon LWB so I'm avoiding for now

        • Piggs Boson
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Neale's article heavily suggested trap.

      3. JohnnyCroat
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Everyone see Neco moved? Easy 5th defender if you're packing your front line.

        1. OPTA FPL
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          only downside is wasting a def spot. I want to pick TAA Cancelo Robertson james Chilwell Perisic Laporte Trippier... but i only can get 5

        2. No Professionals
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          If you’re packing your front line at the expense of your defence, you’re probably doing it wrong.

          1. JohnnyCroat
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Some ppl want to go 4-4-2 instead of 5-x-x, or indeed I've seen plenty pundits talking 3-5-2.

      4. Inter Me Gran
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Leon Bailey….worth a punt?

        1. Andy_Social
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Worth a watch. Can he get through pre-season without breaking? If he's a first-choice at Villa, he's in my squad. I just don't think he will be.

        2. @persecuted_by_mods
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Wouldn't be surprised if he's injured before the season starts

            1. Inter Me Gran
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              An injury wouldn’t surprise me either, he did look useful when he played. Also and probably my main reason is that i’ve only 5m left for a mid

          • K.Jabba 88
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Can see him as a squad player. Few starts mostly sub

          • LarryDuff
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            definitely for me if he can cement a starting role and avoid injury. Big if tho

        3. Fish up a tree
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Anyone seen this Sinisterra play as he looks like a player!

          Leeds nice fixtures to start with, 6.5 mid & got 23 goals & 14 assists in 49 appearances for Feyenoord last season.

          23 year old left winger Colombian compared to Luiz Diaz

          The name has alarm bells ringing but at that price he could be a nice differential to start the season

          1. K.Jabba 88
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            At the 6.5 bracket I'd prefer ward-prowse. Boring pick but nice trickle of guaranteed points

            1. UnluckyXI
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Agree I think having a couple of safe 5.5-6.5 mids to start that you can then jump to bandwagon makes most sense rather than starting with a risk and watching them blank and lost value.

            2. Zimo
              • 6 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              His points come randomly. U could easily have him when he blanks 8 gameweeks in a row and then when u remove him he'll start scoring goals for 5 gameweeks straight. He's the kind of player u need to have all season or it's useless.

          2. Andy_Social
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            I'm intrigued by Leeds' signings. No idea if they'll be a revelation or a Fulham of 2 seasons ago. Really need to see them in action before deciding.

          3. The Mentaculus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Not yet but I'll probably buy a package to watch at least the last 3 of our friendlies. Can maybe write a little scout report here toward the end of the month

            1. Fish up a tree
              • 3 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Nice one, cheers

        4. OverTinker
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          James or Chilwell for set n forget alongside TAA and Cancelo?

          1. Dynamic Duos
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Chilwell

          2. Inter Me Gran
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Chilwell

          3. Andy_Social
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            A coin-toss for me at the moment. Plenty time to observe and decide.

          4. K.Jabba 88
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Same debate here. Had james last season for alot of his 1s 2s & 0 pointers but he can explode

            1. OverTinker
              • 6 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Yes that was painful specially after his hauls

          5. farmerfat
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Im going with both.

        5. bv57
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          I think Jesus is a bit of a trap. I'd expect Calvert Lewin to score more goals over the course of the season.

          Personally I'm trying hard to find the extra million for Nunez.

          1. UnluckyXI
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            I agree with DCL could score more goals but overall think jesus will score more points.

            Past 3 seasons Jesus average .47 goals per 90 compared to .45 for Calvert Lewin.

            Jesus is likely to start more but also can't see Arsenal creating quite as many chances for him whereas DCL should maintain.

            Assists however DCL has 6 in 6,700 minutes Jesus has 21 in 6,000 so overall DCL contributes a G+A every .53 per 90 whereas Jesus is a lot higher at .78

          2. No Professionals
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            So you expect Jesus to score less than 5

          3. Fish up a tree
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Jesus will get 20+ goal contributions next season.

            He’s perfect for us & with the service from Ode, Vieira, Saka & Martinelli plus a Tielemans or similar then I just can’t see how this can go wrong.

            Fixtures are great to start with too. Price is ridiculous too.

            If ever there was a no brainer this is it!

            1. Fletch69
              • 3 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Wow, DCL to outscore Jesus, big shout that.

        6. UnluckyXI
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Any Brentford fans around?

          Thinking about Wissa, his points per 90 adjusted for this current price is fantastic.

          In 12 starts post injury in Nov he got 5 goals and 1 assist, in fact at his price he scored the most goals of any 5.5 mid. Looks like he was starting to break into the first team more in the later half of season with 9 starts in 14 games.

          He'd be my 5th mid in a 3-5-2.

          TAA-Chilwell-Cancelo

          Salah-Diaz-Martinelli-Neto-Wissa

          Haaland-Jesus

          Tomiyasu providing cover as a relatively nailed sub

          1. The FPL Units
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Think I would rather take a punt on Perisic over Tomiyasu and downgrade wissa/neto. Play 442

            1. UnluckyXI
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              I have a version which is Andreas instead of Wissa then 1.0 to upgrade Tomi just haven't settled on the 5.5 def just yet.

              I just think at 4.5 Tomi is a great option for first choice Sub

              1. The FPL Units
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                2 years, 3 months ago

                Yeah but it's then wissa/neto vs a 5.5 def that has better point prospects

        7. wotwot
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Rate my threemium team!!

          Ederson
          TAA Chilwell Cash Tomi
          Salah Barnes BrunoG Neto
          Kane Haaland

          4.0 Andreas 4.5 4.0

          10/10?

          1. farmerfat
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            The midfield is a bit of a mine field. I would take out Ederson for a 4.5 and upgrade Barnes to the 8m slot. You want to be able to get an 8m mid in if one of them is doing well.

            1. wotwot
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Yup was considering that but also wanted a city def

          2. No Professionals
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            It has less players that will get in and around 200 points than a team with 2 premiums

            1. The FPL Units
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              We need to start thinking a max of 6 weeks ahead. We have a wc to play before world cup break with unlimited transfers.

          3. K.Jabba 88
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            That is one of the better 3 premium teams I've seen

          4. @persecuted_by_mods
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Midfield looks very weak and defense looks weaker than most have too, is 3 premiums worth that? I don't think so

              1. No Professionals
                • 7 Years
                2 years, 3 months ago

                Whenever I’ve tried 3 premiums I break my team out of fear of not owning a big hitter

                1. Andy_Social
                  • 12 Years
                  2 years, 3 months ago

                  I tried to avoid a 3mium 'cos everyone knows it's stupid, yet when I drafted one, it looked great, so that's the one I'm going with. It would really really help if one of Kane, Haaland or Salah could pick up an injury just before the season starts though!

                  1. The FPL Units
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    2 years, 3 months ago

                    Yeah I am thinking the same. With world cup break and having a wc to.use it seems the perfect scenario to take risks.

          5. Weasel Boy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Is TAA really worth the extra 0.5 over Robbo?

            1. el polako
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              At right time yes, they seem to take it turns when it comes to form.

            2. UnluckyXI
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Practically identical points per game last season so Robbo is better value

              However worst case is you have Robbo and no money in the bank and then have to restructure team to get in Trent.

              At least with Trent you can cash in and get Robbo

              1. SAUCY SALAH
                • 7 Years
                2 years, 3 months ago

                Very good point

                1. Fletch69
                  • 3 Years
                  2 years, 3 months ago

                  Robbi has decent cover as well from Tsimi, no decent cover for TAA so less likely to be rested during busy periods

          6. King Kohli
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Is the sacrifice below worth it for a threemium?

            A. Ederson + Chilwell + Jesus (Balanced)
            B. Raya + Tomiyasu + Kane (Threemium)

            1. Wild Rover
              • 14 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Not for me

            2. UnluckyXI
              • 7 Years
              2 years, 3 months ago

              Do you have Cancelo or would B leave you with not City defence?

              1. King Kohli
                • 12 Years
                2 years, 3 months ago

                Don't have any other City defence

          7. Pranked
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Nunez or Jesus?

          8. Mirkatldn
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Mendy/Raya
            James/Peresic/Cancelo/Tomi/Williams
            Salah/Diaz/Guimaraes/Gordon/Neto
            Haaland/Darwin/Greenwood

            Thoughts? Stupid not having Trent or robbo? Cheers.

          9. RWB_1991
            • 4 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Ederson, Targett/Trippier & Chilwell or
            Pope, Ait Nouri & Wilson?

            Depending on whether 4,4,2 or 3,4,3

          10. Dale Sartip-Zadeh
            • 2 Years
            2 years, 2 months ago

            Wilson is a great pick

          11. Damien Sartip-Zadeh
            • 2 Years
            2 years, 2 months ago

            Really like Wilson

            1. Christina.
              • 14 Years
              2 years, 2 months ago

              faster