FPL review: £4.5m forward scores, Patterson injury latest

From a starting £4.5m forward to an injured £4.0m defender, we round up the key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from the Tuesday night clash between Everton and Brighton and Hove Albion.

The numbers you see in this Scout Notes summary are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data for every single Premier League fixture.

• READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 19: Tuesday’s goals, assists, bonus and statistics
• READ MORE: Scout Notes: Mitrovic suspended for second Gameweek 19 fixture

£4.5m FPL FORWARD STARTS AND SCORES

An FPL template-changer?

After previously pledging to start 18-year-old Evan Ferguson (£4.5m) in the “next games”, Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi put his money where his mouth is and named the budget FPL forward in his starting XI at Goodison Park last night.

The young Irishman’s full Premier League debut couldn’t have gone much better.

Ferguson had already struck the Everton woodwork and whistled two efforts narrowly over Jordan Pickford‘s (£4.5m) bar before he tapped in his second goal in as many matches, following up his strike against Arsenal on New Year’s Eve.

The teenage striker then claimed the assist for Solly March‘s (£5.0m) goal minutes later.

A physical threat, not afraid to chance his arm, and aggressive in the press; it’s easy to see why pundits and fans are already getting carried away with his potential.

While he may save Albion money in the transfer window, can he also do likewise for FPL managers? There’s a real dearth of sub-£5.5m forwards for any Fantasy manager hoping to play 3-5-2/4-4-2, with the assorted options from Crystal Palace and Leeds United about the best of an underwhelming bunch but far from assured of minutes.

A £4.5m starter for the Premier League’s fifth-highest scorers obviously demands attention, then, especially with some good fixtures coming up (including Liverpool!) and the possibility of an imminent Double Gameweek:

At this point, we have to probably urge a bit of caution regarding game-time. Danny Welbeck (£6.5m), for starters, is soon to return from injury. Leandro Trossard (£6.8m) had also been moonlighting as a ‘false nine’ in Welbeck’s absence until last night, although he curiously looked better in his left wing-back role than he did leading the line.

The early signs for Ferguson are good, though, as are the comments from De Zerbi:

“I’m happy for Ferguson, he played a fantastic game. He has big, big potential. I spoke yesterday about Ferguson and I think he can help us in this moment, in the second part of the season. We have Welbeck, and Ferguson can be very important.

“It’s not important [if you’re] 18, 19 if one player has quality potential. When a coach works in Brighton, his work is to give him the possiblity to play, to show his potential, his skills.

“He could become a great player, a great striker, because he has all the qualities [needed].” – Roberto De Zerbi

TROSSARD TROUBLE, MITOMA MAGIC

How do you solve a problem like Leandro? The Belgian didn’t even make it onto the pitch last night, remaining an unused substitute for the duration.

He’d have been top of many FPL managers’ shopping lists for a Brighton Double Gameweek but he’s looked below par since the World Cup, and now we have the issue of starting position.

Striker/false nine doesn’t look like his ideal role, while Kaoru Mitoma‘s (£4.9m) form on the left wing makes it tough to leave out the Japan international. Perhaps support striker, a position occupied by Adam Lallana (£4.9m) and Jeremy Sarmiento (£4.5m) of late, is the next best thing, but then we’ve had talk of Alexis Mac Allister (£5.4m) – who was back as a substitute in Gameweek 19 – playing further up the field.

Or, perhaps, Trossard is off to pastures new.

There are plenty of budget assets to consider from Brighton’s ranks for the upcoming fixtures and potential ‘double’, which our resident Seagull Az will discuss in the coming days. Pascal Gross (£5.6m) and Solly March (£5.0m) were both on the scoresheet last night, taking their combined attacking returns to 16 in 2022/23 so far. Gross’s starting position (he’s played right-back, left-back and central midfield of late) and March’s historic profligacy are off-putting factors but their underlying numbers are decent.

Mitoma is arguably the most exciting pick, especially if Trossard departs. He catches the eye every time he plays and it’s now three goals in his last four matches. A minutes-per-expected-goal-involvement (xGI) figure of 180.7 is sandwiched somewhere between Bukayo Saka (£8.1m) and Marcus Rashford (£7.0m), albeit from quite a small sample.

Above: Kaoru Mitoma’s touch heatmap v Everton. No player on show in this fixture had more penalty area touches

PATTERSON INJURY LATEST

Everton’s poor underlying defensive numbers are catching up with them after Pickford’s early-season, xG-defying heroics, and it’s now 10 goals conceded in the Toffees’ last four games.

Nathan Patterson (£4.0m) is Everton’s most-owned player in FPL due to his low cost but his recent points returns have resembled binary code due to those above goal concessions and now he looks set for a spell on the sidelines.

The young right-back limped from the field of play after an hour of the defeat to Brighton, with Frank Lampard confirming he had a knee injury:

“It’s a knee injury and it could be weeks. Medial ligaments. We’ll have to get it scanned but it looks like a medial [issue], which is not ideal.” – Frank Lampard on Nathan Patterson

Demarai Gray (£5.3m) made it two goals in as many games with a late consolation from the spot, although he wouldn’t have been on penalty-taking duty had Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) not already been substituted.