While our Scout Picks deal in a one-week-only window, our Watchlist series concentrates on the (more important) medium-term outlook in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
In this feature, we look at the stand-out FPL (and Draft) options over a four-to-six-week lookahead.
We try to be less ‘kneejerk’ in these articles as a result, given that we’ve identified targets for a more sustained period.
And the changes are relatively modest in this latest update, ahead of what will no doubt be a more comprehensive revamp ahead of Gameweek 22 – by that point, we are likely to know much more about the Blank and Double Gameweeks after the latest EFL Cup and FA Cup results. The transfer window will also be shut by then, so the impact of any new arrivals can be properly assessed.
MORE ABOUT THE WATCHLIST
Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as form, club injuries, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.
Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous update or if they are a new entry into the tables.
We typically toe the line with FPL’s definition of ‘form’ (average points accrued in matches played over the last 30 days) but allowances are sometimes made for players missing because of/coming back from injury.
The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS
We’ve not made a change for change’s sake in our goalkeeping pecking order, with two Double Gameweek 23 custodians and one very possible Gameweek 22 ‘doubler’ sandwiching Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.6m).
Despite obvious reservations about the competency of Chelsea’s backline, Kepa (4.9) trails only the absurdly consistent Nick Pope (£5.4m, 5.1) for points per match among first-choice FPL goalkeepers. The nearing return to fitness of Messrs James and Chilwell raises hopes that the Blues’ defence will be further solidified by the time Gameweek 22 comes around, after which Graham Potter’s troops have a decent run of games right the way through to the March international break.
Pope ought to perhaps be higher on form but with three potent attacks coming in Gameweeks 24-26 (Gameweek 25 could very well also be a blank), with cheaper routes into the Newcastle backline existing, and with Pope only collecting save points in one of his last 13 matches, he stays put for now.
With injury-hit Leicester in dire shape (four losses on the spin) and with four top-seven sides to come in the next five Gameweeks, Danny Ward (£4.1m) tumbles a few spots. He may no longer even be the cheapest starting goalkeeper in the short term should Wayne Hennessey (£3.9m) deputise for the injured Dean Henderson (£4.7m), but with Nottingham Forest potentially in the market for another shot-stopper, we’ve left Hennessey off the Watchlist for now.
Robert Sanchez (£4.6m) is the one and only new entry. Fifth for both projected points and ‘value’ in our Rate My Team tool over the next six Gameweeks, he’s in the same spot in the above graphic. And on a similar theme… Brighton are a very decent fifth for non-penalty expected goals conceded (NPxGC) since Roberto De Zerbi took over.
Some excellent fixtures are coming up now for Albion – just mind that possible Gameweek 25 blank.
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS
Disappearing from view since our last update are Marc Cucurella (£5.2m), currently being kept out of the team by a teenager and with a depressing Double Gameweek behind him, and John Stones (£5.4m), who is now one of five fit Manchester City centre-halves competing for two or three spots. With one Double Gameweek soon to be out of the way for Stones & co and the next ‘double’ featuring a trip to Arsenal, there seems little reward in trying to pre-empt Pep Guardiola’s selections in this position. You could say the same for Joao Cancelo (£7.2m), of course, but an attack-minded defender who had started 50 of the previous 51 Premier League matches he was available for before his post-World Cup demotion has some Watchlist brownie points in the bank – for now.
Pervis Estupinan (£4.5m) is our new entrant. We’ve already highlighted Brighton’s defensive stats above, now a word on Estupinan’s attacking threat: his minutes-per-chance-created average (62) is bettered by only six first-team Premier League defenders in 2022/23.
With our previous Forest defender – Willy Boly (£4.2m) – succumbing to injury, we’ve replaced him with Serge Aurier (£4.5m), who is proving to be something of a bonus points magnet and part of an ever-improving Forest backline with some favourable fixtures ahead.
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL MIDFIELDERS
We’ve waved a not-so-fond farewell to Mason Mount (£7.5m) and Son Heung-min (£11.6m), both included pretty much because of Double Gameweeks now gone or about to pass.
Mount’s upcoming fixtures actually aren’t half bad (starting with a face-off against a dismal Liverpool defence) but his underlying numbers are abysmal: he ranks a lowly 49th for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) among midfielders in his last six matches.
Son, meanwhile, has blanked in 13 of his 17 appearances this season and was again short of his best in the north London derby. Richarlison’s (£8.4m) return to fitness adds that little bit more pressure on the Korean, something that a prickly Antonio Conte is getting sick of being asked about. Son did actually manage three shots in the box against Arsenal on Sunday but that was as many as he had managed in his last six appearances. As we wrote in our last Watchlist article, it’s a bit of a myth that Son doesn’t need penalty-box proximity.
We’ve not added Bruno Fernandes (£9.8m) just yet, despite yet more Double Gameweek heroics in the last few days. Arsenal away doesn’t seem like the fixture to bring the Portugal international in but thereafter, especially if Double Gameweek 22 is confirmed for the Red Devils, expect to see the highest points scorer of 2020/21 join Marcus Rashford (£7.1m) in the above list.
Brighton’s budget duo of Solly March (£5.1m) and Kaoru Mitoma (£5.0m) predictably climb into contention – we’ve got a Members article coming on those two so we won’t delve too deep into their credentials here but, in a nutshell, they’re budget-friendly routes into the Premier League’s top-scoring side of the last 10 Gameweeks, with some excellent fixtures to come over the next two months. At that price, they’re also benchable if they do blank in Gameweek 25.
The appeal of Rodrigo (£6.4m) is up for debate. In his corner he has favourable upcoming fixtures, a potential Double Gameweek, some good underlying numbers (10 shots in the box since the restart, for example) and is able to boast of being FPL’s top goalscoring ‘midfielder’. On the other hand, the arrival of Georginio Rutter (£5.5m) and the return to fitness of Patrick Bamford (£7.2m) are potential warning signs. However, Jesse Marsch’s fulsome praise for Rodrigo after Gameweek 20 suggests he is the go-to spearhead for now. Bamford – scorer of two goals in the FA Cup on Wednesday – will surely continue to be eased in after months on the sidelines, while Rutter last played in November for Hoffenheim so himelf faces a bedding-in period.
Mohamed Salah‘s (£12.9m) table-topping underlying numbers (he can’t be beaten among midfielders for shots in the box, big chances, penalty box touches etc over the last six games) just about keeps our waning interest in the Egyptian, while Miguel Almiron‘s (£5.9m) next four games are appealing enough from an attacking perspective to warrant second thoughts about whether he should be a Mitoma/March makeweight.
- READ MORE: Keep or sell Miguel Almiron?
THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL FORWARDS
Making us look silly since Gameweek 17 has been Ivan Toney (£7.5m), who we have overlooked in the Watchlist since the restart. The threat of a possible lengthy ban was off-putting for a medium-term feature such as this, while an injury before Gameweek 19 also briefly put him out of action in the New Year. While the uncertainty of what follows in February keeps him off the Watchlist above, make no mistake that he’s a fantastic option for Gameweek 20 in isolation – hence why he’s in the Scout Picks ‘bus team’.
There’s plenty of debate to be had about the order of the top seven ahead of more seismic developments, i.e. further Blank/Double Gameweek announcements and pre-Gameweek 21 injury updates. We have dropped Anthony Martial (£6.6m) down the pecking order in the meantime, however: there is a good chance that United have a Double Gameweek 22 but his fitness issues just won’t go away and the arrival of Wout Weghorst (£6.0m) is something to consider regarding game-time risk.
There are doubts of various sizes concerning the players beneath the premium twosome: the profligate Darwin Nunez (£8.8m) is still uncertain to be fit for the upcoming Gameweek, Callum Wilson (£7.2m) now has an injury-free Alexander Isak (£6.6m) to contend with, and we await to see what Arsenal do in the transfer market regarding fresh competition for Eddie Nketiah (£6.6m). Leandro Trossard (£6.7m) is seemingly on his way to the Emirates; like Gabriel Martinelli (£6.8m), the Belgian has experience of leading the line, although it’d seem perverse for Mikel Arteta to tamper with a winning formula at present.
We’ve promoted a cluster of sub-£6.0m forwards to our Watchlist after a real lean period for budget picks up top.
We can’t ignore the return to fitness of Danny Welbeck (£6.5m) for Brighton but Evan Ferguson (£4.5m) has the central striker role at Brighton for now and will get game-time of some variety in the medium term, after an excellent spell in which he trails only Toney for post-restart FPL form among forwards.
Willy Gnonto (£5.0m) has similarly been in excellent nick for Leeds and looks to have cemented a starting spot in Jesse Marsch’s starting XI, even if he is operating in more of a left-wing role rather than through the middle. Electric against West Ham and Aston Villa in the last two league matches and then delivering a superb two-goal display against Cardiff in the FA Cup, the return to fitness of Luis Sinisterra (£6.5m) might be a concern on paper – but the hope, certainly among Leeds fans, is that the two will actually play in tandem and Gnonto is in such good form that he’s surely one of the first names on the teamsheet at present.
The favourable fixture runs of Leeds and Brighton are contributing factors for Gnonto and Ferguson’s inclusion, and the same is true regarding Brennan Johnson (£5.6m). The Forest striker is fourth among FPL forwards for NPxGI since the restart – and three suspect defences in the shape of Bournemouth, Leeds and Fulham are up next.
