Big Numbers
25 March 2023 180 comments
FPL Marc FPL Marc
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With an international break giving Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers time to assess their squad and formulate a transfer plan, it’s time to once again wheel out the Big Numbers article ahead of Double Gameweek 29.

If you’re new to the site, this article series looks at some notable FPL statistics ahead of the upcoming Gameweek.

These cherry-picked Opta stats can all be found in our Premium Members’ Area.

Only subscribers can read the full article; those wishing to sign up to our site and continue reading, as well as see a list of the benefits that Membership brings, can do so by clicking here.




FPL Gameweek 18 differentials: Great fixtures for in-form Benrahma

15 – Since Gameweek 13, Said Benrahma (£5.5m) has been a regular starter for West Ham United. His 15 shots on target rank fifth amongst all midfielders during this time, which is one more than popular options Bukayo Saka (£8.6m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m).

12 – Crystal Palace are winless over their last dozen matches and have replaced Patrick Vieira with Roy Hodgson. The underlying defensive stats are poor, so it’s no surprise to see Vicente Guaita (£4.4m) on the highest number of post-World Cup saves (46).

3.94Alexis Mac Allister (£5.5m) has played in a more advanced role since Gameweek 23 and, from that starting point, has the league’s highest expected goals (xG) tally of just under four.

80 – Sticking with Brighton and Hove Albion midfielders, Kaoru Mitoma (£5.5m) has been a revelation since his first start in Gameweek 14. His 80 penalty area touches exceeds all of his teammates.

13.41– The Seagulls’ xG ranks second over every side’s last six matches, and Albion are also in that spot for goal attempts (104).

3 – Brighton’s defence is also posting some superb numbers. Over this same six-match period, their total of three big chances conceded is the best.

51Pervis Estupinan‘s (£4.8m) points total from his last eight outings, only once returning less than six.

FPL team news: Injury updates on Haaland, Rashford, Pope and Mount

22 – Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland (£12.0m) is far in front for post-World Cup big chances. Next up is the 13 of Marcus Rashford (£7.3m).

31 – Less obvious is Luke Ayling‘s (£4.5m) penalty area touches during this time, a leading number amongst all defenders. He’s second for shots on target (four) and expected goal involvement (3.09), whilst being best at both these from Gameweek 22 onwards.

5.69 – The expected goals conceded (xGC) of Liverpool in their last six matches, despite the Reds only letting in one actual goal.

70 – Shots conceded by Manchester United in their most recent four outings, worse than everyone bar Bournemouth.

VIDEO LATEST



FPL Marc Broadcaster, writer and overthinker. Hoping that ‘differential potential’ will catch on.

180 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. The Bandit
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Much needed new post, the speed that the last one was moving was dizzying

    1. Cheeky Reijnders
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      IB is the only time FPL addicts get to catch up on DIY and see their other halves.

      1. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This IB has been good. Turns out I both a family AND a job. Who knew?

        1. Cheeky Reijnders
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Haha. Give them all the love before 1st April.

        2. GC123
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Lol. I’d agree but I just played F1 Clash more instead to fill the void

          1. DNML
            • 10 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            If they (hutch) continue what they’re doing, we’ll leave that crap 2 months into new season 🙂

    2. Maliwizzy
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Lol

    3. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I can’t even remember the post above this that was deleted. Was it offensive?

  2. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Luke Ayling cat at of the bag!

  3. Maliwizzy
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Any one else interested in a westham defense other than a man united own

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No. We’re all going for Ayling.

      1. Cheeky Reijnders
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Wailing!

    2. Cheeky Reijnders
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Nope. Fabs has an eye injury and they have only 5 clean sheets all season. GD -10.

      1. GreennRed
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Backup keeper has a World Cup winners medal.

  4. Maliwizzy
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Fabianski and estupinan
    Shaw and Steele
    De gea and estupinan

    1. Maliwizzy
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Pick 1

      1. The Knights Template
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        1

    2. alsybach
      • 16 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Pick

    3. David Parkinson
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Need context, team, chips.

  5. Magic Zico
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Gabriel (LEE) > Chilwell (AVL LIV) worth -4 hit?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No

    2. David Parkinson
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Yep, comes in handy down the line.

  6. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Joselu brace for Spain, he was forever on the goals imminent table!

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Didn’t disappoint

      1. panda07
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Jonty will be very satisfied...

  7. alsybach
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Just come back from a fleetwood Mac tribute band, Rhiannon, absolutely fab!!!

    1. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Oh well 😉

    2. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Did you take a taxi or did you go your own way?

    3. Charlie Price
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Someone told me that this was happening tonight but I didn't believe the rumours.

    4. ᶠᶦˡᵗʰʸLucre $$$
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Cher and her tribute act are doing a duet together - they've called themselves Cher and Cher-alike.

      1. David Parkinson
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        *beer snorts from nostrils*

  8. Tcheco
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Play 1:

    A. Gabriel (LEE)

    B. Mings (che lei)

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Mings the more fun pick with 2 games. Think Leeds might get one against arsenal

  9. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Ayling at 17.3% and rising. Should I do the trade now? Pinnock out.

    1. David Parkinson
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      He wouldn't rescue a damsel in distress, gird your loins.

    2. Fitzy.
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah mate, he scored last week, that's the way to play this game...

      1. The Knights Template
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Hall of Shame rank to protect!

  10. GreennRed
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Short night tonight.

    1. David Parkinson
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Better drink faster then.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stMNH3ON5XE

  11. cruzex
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    johnson or Solanke for next DGW?

    1. David Parkinson
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      The one who knows where the goal is.

    2. Mirror Man
      3 years, 3 months ago

      After 10 long years it's come down to this eh.

  12. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Liking the idea of FH34, plenty of premium options with DGW’s, could afford this:

    Steele*
    TAA* VVD* Stones*
    Salah* KDB* Bruno* Rashford* Mitoma*
    Haaland* Ferguson*

    (Iversen, Emerson*, Neco, Greenwood)

    1. David Parkinson
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Does Kev even play these days?

      1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Reckon he will come the business end of the season

        1. David Parkinson
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Fergie is a bad bet too.

          1. Cheeky Reijnders
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Is he still on the lash?

            1. David Parkinson
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              Prolly.

    2. Cheeky Reijnders
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Looks good, if you've already used your TC and don't need the FH for GW32.

      1. Boberella
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This.

      2. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Used the TC on Rashford in GW22 & have 10 players that’ll play in BGW32, will be able to field an XI using transfers

  13. Ragabolly
    • 16 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Risers: None

    Fallers: Elyounoussi (5.1) Caleta-Car (4.4)

    1. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Why all the Soton hate?

      1. Bada Bing
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Because they're rubbish and bottom of the league?

    3. The Final Boss
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Car value down..

      1. lilmessipran
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Depreciation

  14. David Parkinson
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    A micro-cap being played by the very few, falls. Nice.

  15. Scalper
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Coming to these forums during IB has made me realise how addicted I am to FPL

    1. David Parkinson
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I'm enjoying the quiet, and the beer.

    2. Cheeky Reijnders
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      The summer break is proper cold turkey.

      1. Cheeky Reijnders
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Still, there's The Ashes to look forward to once this is done.

        1. Fitzy.
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          You must be an Aussie if you're looking forward to it... 🙂

          1. Cheeky Reijnders
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Bazball mate. If Stokes makes it through all 5 tests should be a cracking series.

    3. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Tis a place for the true believers.

      1. Fulchester's New Centr…
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This is the way

        1. David Parkinson
          • 4 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          Play a tune Shaky.

          1. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            Have to be a premium member for that.

              1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                • 8 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                Lovely stuff.
                Actually Marie, Marie is my favourite.

          2. Fulchester's New Centr…
            • 8 Years
            3 years, 3 months ago

            But did you know This Old House was actually inspired by finding a dead body I an empty shack?

            1. David Parkinson
              • 4 Years
              3 years, 3 months ago

              Yeah but let's not get all Welsh gloom.

              1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                • 8 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                OK Dai-bach.

              2. The Knights Template
                • 12 Years
                3 years, 3 months ago

                You need moist Bara Brith, tis a Welsh tea cake guaranteed to please!

                1. Fulchester's New Centr…
                  • 8 Years
                  3 years, 3 months ago

                  Oh, hiraeth for the bara brith Knight bach

                  1. The Knights Template
                    • 12 Years
                    3 years, 3 months ago

                    Hail well met Shachy!

  16. Boberella
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Hi DZ, need a gk and def for dgw29 who will be predominantly benched thereafter.
    (Will FH32)

    Sanchez+Dawson to:
    A)Steele+Estupinan
    B)Neto+Emerson/Castagne

    Only have 1FT so would be for a hit

    Thoughts appreciated.
    Thabks

    1. BlzE_94
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A

  17. BS03
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    kepa (raya)
    trippier - chilwell - estupinan (gabriel - mee)
    rashford - mitoma - macA - saka (ode)
    kane - watkins - toney

    hi guys gonna BB this week (no FH left, only WC)
    which moves to do [1ft, 5.9itb]:

    A) ode -> maddison
    B) mee -> shaw
    C) both for -4

    1. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      A for sure, not sure on B, as mee has double. What about getting rid of Gabriel?

  18. Make FPL Casual Again
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Early / provisional.scout picks have Nacho back in starting lineup ...

    This based on any information or Roger's comments etc ?

    1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      It's based on Iheanacho being the GOAT

    2. Boberella
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Decent fixtures in 29. Differential punt. Only played 45 mins for Nigeria yesterday

    3. The Mentaculus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      The torment! I'd already decided to sell him. I would absolutely keep him if guaranteed to start (maybe if Daka was injured), but on BB I don't think I can risk it just on a prediction

      1. Make FPL Casual Again
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah not worth keeping/playing if at best only starts 1 game...

        But, if injury / Rogers comment / Daka was very crap, then maybe still an option

  19. conanthebarbarian
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who to go with for a one week punt as I'm likely BB29 and WC30

    Ward & Tarkowski out (-4)

    A) Chilwell & Steele (have both kepa & badisheile)

    B) De Gea & Estupinan/Dunk

    C) Other

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      B

  20. _Gunner
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Morning All,

    Would you bench boost this bench?

    Steele Kane Saka Gabriel

    1. BlzE_94
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I would

    2. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Standard reply

      If your bench keeper doubles, and the rest of your bench are players you would not ordinarily bench in a normal sgw, like Kane, Saka & Gabriel (LEE) then yes BB

      1. FourLokoLeipzig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        Would you say the same if you need a hit to swap your keeper? I’m thinking no

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      I would start Kane, Saka & Gabriel and bench boost others

      1. LC1
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        This

    4. LC1
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah 100%

  21. BlzE_94
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Playing bench boost, would you guys make any transfers here for a hit? (£0.5 itb)

    Raya Steele
    Trippier Chilwell Zinchenko Shaw Estupinan
    Salah Saka Rashford Martinelli Mitoma
    Kane Toney Watkins

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      No

  22. leo_messi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Kepa*
    Mings* - Trippier* - Botman* - Henry*
    Rashford* - Bruno* - Mitoma*
    Watkins* - Toney* - Kane

    Sub : Ddg* - Saka - Odegaard - White

    Playing BB this week,is White -> Estupinian worth a - 4 hit?

    1. Sheffield Wednesday
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      White (LEE) + 4pts vs Estupiñán (BRE, bou)

      I would stick with White, and only do the latter if you FH32

  23. mdm
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Martinelli to Maddy for free? Yes or No?

    1. tbos83
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Depends on other options. Do you have an Ars defender?

      1. mdm
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        No. Only Saka

    2. Heavy Cream
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Absolutely not. DGW irrelevant. Marti is the in form player. Maddi is not showing up. I have both however.

  24. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Who to get from

    A) VVD
    B) Chilwell

    And do we think Steele will still be a certain starter by DGW 34?

  25. tbos83
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Punt on Mitoma or MacA cap?

    1. mdm
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Punt?? On form and best fixtures in the double.. Mitoma for me

  26. Nate(U)dog(ie)
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1639903949573566469

    Just came here to point out that BigManBakar paid for a blue verification tick on Twitter and has posted to brag about it. This guy is hilarious. Have a good weekend all

    1. Fitzy.
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Prize Goose: Check ✅

    2. Debauchy
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      His money , what's this sudden trend of trying to denigrate "content providers" . No one is forced to follow their advice so best just ignore them if they rile you so.

      1. Amsterhammer
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        He paid for the tick but lives inside Natedog’s head rent free.

      2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        I thought I muted him but apparently not, think I just clicked "see less from". I'm not actually a content creator hater but I honestly can't stand him in particular and regardless of who it is, I have no idea why someone would flex about this

  27. Jebiga
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Do you think Halland will play against Liverpool this gw?

    1. Heavy Cream
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Definitely maybe

    2. boc610
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      no, wont be risked for bayern game

    3. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Groin injuries are tricky, they need time to heal. I injured mine in 1199 and it still doesn’t feel right!

    4. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      Touch and go as Stone Cold Steve Austin would say.

  28. Pepeye
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    Haaland's dad isn't confident he'll make it, as he is unable to trai at the moment. I think Saints away is a more realistic proposition

  29. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    James isn’t going to play is he? Best move here?

    A) JAMES -> Shaw
    B) JAMES -> Chilwell (leaves me 0.1 short for Toney -> Haaland next week)
    C) Zinchenko -> Shaw
    D) MEE -> Shaw (leaves me 0.1 short for Toney -> Haaland next week)

    KEPA, RAYA
    TRIPPIER, JAMES, ESTUPINAN, MEE, Zinchenko
    RASHFORD, BRUNO, MITOMA, MARCH, Saka
    WATKINS, TONEY, Kane

    Bank 4.4m, 1FT
    BB in play, FH planned for 32

    1. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      can't risk not getting Haaland back so it's A or C from those. Is James injured? If so then A

      1. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        3 years, 3 months ago

        He just withdrew from the England squad so sounds like he’s a risk for this week. I guess I wait for the presser this week and A if he’s out or C if he’s not.

        1. Mambino
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 3 months ago

          yes, do that

  30. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 3 months ago

    The context of the big numbers is missing.

    The numbers are meaningless unless you say what the number refers to.

    Is it possible to get Neale back on this article, please? It used to be one of my favourites.

    1. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 3 months ago

      This is how the article should be written for context https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2022/11/09/fpl-gameweek-16-the-key-player-and-team-stats/

      Very easy to see what specific stats are being referenced in each paragraph.