We continue our analysis of the Gameweek 31 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action in our Scout Notes series.
Here, the focus is on Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Everton v Fulham and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brentford.
Any numbers you see in this article are taken from our Premium Members Area, where you can access Opta player and team data from every single Premier League fixture.
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WATKINS’S FORM… AND FITNESS
Ollie Watkins‘ (£7.7m) scarcely believable run of form not only continued on Saturday but actually stepped up a gear, with the striker notching his second-highest-ever FPL score.
A brace and an assist against Newcastle took him to 17 attacking returns in as many appearances under Unai Emery, a total that only a certain Norwegian in the north-west can top since Villa’s change in manager.
It was a superb display against the Premier League’s meanest defence, and the double-digit haul was no fluke either: he had hit the woodwork after 30 seconds, saw a strike chalked off for a very marginal offside and was thwarted by Nick Pope (£5.4m) on another two occasions.
It turns out Watkins was even a minor concern for Gameweek 31 after missing a training session but there was little sign of any suffering on the pitch, save for the Newcastle backline he terrorised.
“He has suffered for two days and missed a session this week but in the end, he was good. We have to be careful with some players like Jacob Ramsey for example. He was tired and he worked a lot in this match. He’s important as well and we need to be careful.” – Unai Emery on Ollie Watkins
This was a real statement from Watkins and Emery’s troops. The striker had scored in Villa wins over Nottingham Forest, Leicester City, a faltering Chelsea and Everton recently but the visit of a Newcastle side on a five-match winning sequence was a step up in class and the start of a fixture run against mostly top-half opposition – something that perhaps even made Watkins owners question his long-term place in their FPL sides:
But following Saturday’s display, the defences of mid-table Brentford and Fulham, 13th-place Wolves, a Spurs side who just shipped three goals to Bournemouth, and a Liverpool outfit who have been conceding ‘big chances’ for fun suddenly don’t look as daunting as before.
MARVELLOUS MORENO
There were excellent performances across the pitch at Villa Park, with the Emery effect epitomised by the transformations of John McGinn (£5.1m) and Jacob Ramsey (£5.2m), two midfielders who were much-maligned by their own support during the early part of 2022/23.
Ramsey made it five attacking returns in as many Gameweeks with a 13-point haul against Newcastle, although that flurry of goals and assists have admittedly come from a modest expected goal involvement (xGI) of 1.67.
Underlying numbers fans will have no doubt clocked Alex Moreno (£4.5m) by now, however, and the left-back delivered a third assist since his January move when teeing up Watkins for one of his two goals.
Positional rival Lucas Digne (£4.6m) now hasn’t featured since Gameweek 25 but Emery made a point of repeatedly mentioning the Frenchman in Saturday’s post-match presser, and there is a chance – however slim it might be – that Digne starts in one of Gameweeks 32 or 33 given that the two matches are separated by little more than 72 hours.
“Alex Moreno is improving and adapting very well. He was struggling to begin with because the adaptation is hard. I remember his first match against Leeds when Digne was injured after 10 minutes. Moreno struggled a little bit but progressively his adaptation has been very quick. His performances are at the same level as Digne’s now.
“Alex Moreno… His best quality is his speed. In the attacking third, he’s getting there in the box and finding not only crosses but passes as well. It’s very good. I knew his qualities before in Spain. Now with Lucas Digne, both are trying to play with the idea we are creating. I like sometimes that one side we use more, like the left-back, pushing higher more than the right-back.” – Unai Emery
OFF-DAY FOR THE MAGPIES
Newcastle had only been beaten three times this season before the Villa loss, and they were in the game at some point during each and every one of those losses.
They’ve so, so rarely been outplayed from start to finish in 2022/23 but that was the case here, a rare off-day in an otherwise superb campaign.
Too much tinkering from Eddie Howe is one mitigating factor: Sean Longstaff (£4.3m) was on the bench after tonsillitis, and his omission saw Joe Willock (£4.7m) switch midfield positions and Anthony Gordon (£5.1m) come in for a rare start on the left flank. They sound like small tweaks but the Burn-Willock-Joelinton link-up on the left had been a hit recently and the lungs of Longstaff were sorely missed in the engine room. Jacob Murphy (£4.1m) and Gordon were made to look like the back-up wingers they normally are, meanwhile, and there’s a strong chance that neither player starts in Gameweek 32, with Miguel Almiron (£5.4m) now back fit.
“We were off our best levels today, right from the start. Aston Villa are a good team and we never got going. We’ve been consistently excellent this season – today is the first dip we’ve had. It can happen and we have to react.
“I think this was our worst performance. We weren’t great today and that’s hugely disappointing in such a big fixture. The lads have been so consistent throughout the season – these things can happen – we now just need to focus on our response to today.
“It was unlike us in every aspect really. I thought we were wasteful with the ball and definitely unlike ourselves out of possession. We weren’t as solid, tight and reliable as we have been. There’s a lot to analyse from my perspective.”
“Sean had a bout of tonsilitis in the week, so he didn’t train. We felt he wasn’t fit to start the game. I don’t think his absence necessarily affects where Bruno is playing on the pitch, but we maybe missed Sean’s tenacity and his legs and energy.
“His endurance levels are at the very highest level and we didn’t look right in midfield today, but I would say today that in every area of the pitch, we didn’t look quite right. I’m sure that’s not just down to one player.” – Eddie Howe
CONCERN FOR EVERTON?
Everton’s home form has been keeping their necks above the surface in their bid to avoid the drop but Saturday’s 3-1 reverse to Fulham on Merseyside was a huge blow.
Only three of their remaining seven fixtures are at Goodison Park, and two of those come against Newcastle United and Manchester City.
“The away form has been poor for the last two years, I can’t brush that away, that’s the truth. So you’ve got two years of correction and what we’ve been trying to do is correct the mentality of away form and performance level because they’re hand in hand.” – Sean Dyche
Sean Dyche could at least be boosted by the return of Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) in Gameweek 32, while there was some mitigation in that the Everton boss had to disrupt his defence and effectively change both of his full-backs – Ben Godfrey (£4.3m) switching flanks – for this game.
But the fact is that most FPL bosses will be looking at the resurgent Crystal Palace options next weekend, with Everton without a win on their travels since Gameweek 9 and conceding at least two goals in each of their last six away fixtures.
MID-TABLE BECKONS FOR BRENTFORD AND FULHAM
While the ‘on the beach’ accusation is lazily and too easily levelled at mid-table sides when spring rolls around, the fact is that managers of teams out of contention for Europe and relegation can use the run-in to experiment a bit more with their set-ups and give squad players more of an opportunity.
Marco Silva began the process in Gameweek 30 by giving Cedric Soares (£4.2m) and Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.4m) chances at the back, while here he brought the lesser-spotted Daniel James (£5.9m) – as the central striker – and Harry Wilson (£5.7m) into his starting XI further forward.
James and man-of-the-match Wilson were duly on the scoresheet in a fine 3-1 away win, while Willian (£5.5m) registered five shots and three chances created en route to an assist of his own.
“We changed some things, played with a different profile of striker and Daniel James did a very good game and of course he deserves the credit for his performance. The players deserve all the credit for the win.” – Marco Silva
The fixtures do remain good for the Cottagers, it has to be said, and they’ve still got a Double Gameweek to come. They’ll have to do without ineligible loanee James in Gameweek 32, however.
Brentford meanwhile fell to a 2-0 loss at Wolves, with their winless run extending to five matches.
Two constants running through all the ups and downs of the Bees’ 2022/23 are lots of shots for Ivan Toney (£7.7m) and lots of saves for David Raya (£4.9m).
The pair were at it again at Molineux, with Raya conceding twice yet somehow salvaging a five-point return thanks to save and bonus points. Toney, despite a quiet overall display, still had five attempts of his own. On another day he could have hauled: a late shot hit the woodwork, an early close-range bicycle-kick was mistimed and an assist should have at least been banked when Josh Dasilva (£4.1m) spooned over from three yards.
Toney at least avoided a booking to keep him in Gameweek 32 contention.
TOP TOTI
Toney’s serial caution-dodging evoked memories of Diego Costa (£5.3m), who coincidentally was on the scoresheet in Wolves’ 2-0 win on Saturday; his first attacking return since his Gameweek 9 debut.
Wolves assets are maverick/differential picks for anyone on a Free Hit in Gameweek 32 or looking for a short-term gamble, with a porous Leicester City side providing the opposition.
Matheus Nunes (£4.8m) has looked more like the player Liverpool reportedly want in the last two Gameweeks, almost getting an assist when substitute Hwang Hee-chan (£5.7m) converted the midfielder’s deflected cross.
Also harshly but correctly deprived of an assist was Toti Gomes (£3.8m), whose cross was eventually bundled in by Costa via a Brentford tackle.
The left-back spot looks like Toti’s to lose after back-to-back shut-outs and he’s a possible emergency, budget-freeing bench option for anyone on a Free Hit.
Costa was the only Wolves player to have more penalty box touches on Saturday, with Toti close to a penalty award when he fell under the challenge of Raya.
