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Which FPL players and teams top the xG tables?

16 May 2023 163 comments
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This Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.

We’ll also identify the top expected goal involvement (xGI) performers.

Having last looked at these tables after Gameweek 34, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members Area.

Only Premium Members are able to read these pieces, so sign up today to get full access not just to the editorial content but all of the other benefits, from hundreds of Opta stats to a transfer planner.

TEAMS

XG: LAST SIX MATCHES

Brighton and Hove Albion and Newcastle United continue to impress in attack, ahead of their meeting at St James’ Park on Thursday.

The reverse fixture ended goalless all the way back in Gameweek 2, but that scenario seems unlikely this time, given the firepower at Roberto De Zerbi and Eddie Howe’s disposal.

Leicester City’s loss to Liverpool on Monday has pushed the Foxes to the brink of relegation, despite an upturn in creativity since Dean Smith’s arrival.

It’s worth noting they have been awarded four penalties in their last six matches, distorting their xG figure, but if they had put away more of their opportunities (-4.70 xG delta), could they have been safe by now?

LEICESTER’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
GW36 (LIV)GW35 (ful)GW34 (EVE)GW33 (lee)GW32 (WOL)GW31 (mci)
xG0.412.843.462.192.432.36

Elsewhere, Everton managed five goals in a single game against Brighton for the first time this season in Gameweek 35, more than their previous six Premier League games under Sean Dyche.

They created 2.28 xG at the Amex, including four Opta-defined ‘big chances’.

Chelsea, meanwhile, continue to struggle in front of goal, with daunting trips to Manchester City and Manchester United in Double Gameweek 37.

  • Biggest xG underachievers (last six matches): Man Utd (-5.57), Leicester (-4.70), Brentford (-3.57)
  • Biggest xG overachievers (last six matches): Man City (+4.30), Nott’m Forest (+4.15), Fulham (+4.13)

XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES

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163 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Bluetiger1
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Three Brighton
    Three Man City
    One Man United (Shaw)

    (Midfielder -option) Martinelli injured - who best to replace with 1.7 itb
    concern some of the City players might not play so looking to replace
    Martinelli at the moment so cover on the bench?

    Any ideas

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    1. Steve Stiffler
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Possibly straight swap for Saka if you want to get rid this week. Or you could take a punt on Eze or Olise maybe?

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  2. KeanosMagic
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Have made a right balls up of my team.

    DDG
    Trippier Dias Dunk TAA Dalot
    Salah KDB Rashford Mitoma MacA

    Rashford injured, Dalot not starting.
    DDG blocks Fernandes move.
    No money itb.

    Any ideas with 2FT?

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    1. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Dalot to Lindelof and roll FT?

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    2. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      whose up front guessing one if Haaland?

      Dalot to Varane
      Rashford to Gündogan

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      1. Amartey Partey
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Dalot to Varane? Both are likely to only play one of the two games.

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  3. grooveymatt65
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    (lost on the last page)

    Hey guys here's my team:

    Ederson/ Iversen

    Shaw Trippier TAA/ Henry White

    Willock Fernandes Salah Mitoma Mac Allister

    Isak Haaland/ Greenwood

    (2.4 itb 2ft)

    What moves from the below looks the best?

    1. Willock to Rashford and Salah to KDB/Mahrez for free (if Rashford is back)

    2. Willock to Mahrez and Trippier to Estupian for free (if Rashford is out still)

    3. Willock to a 4.5, Henry to Estupian and Salah to KDB/Mahrez for -4 and play 442 (if Rashford is out)

    4. Isak and Willock to Alvarez and Rashford (if Rashford is back)

    5. Other

    Also who to stick the Triple captain on?

    A. Haaland
    B. Fernandes
    C. Rashford (if back)

    thanks guys!!!!!!!!

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    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      4.

      awkward late in season now with TC as rotation/rest

      a or b

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  4. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    A) raya to ddg (if rash fit) or B) rash (if out) & trip to Bruno & lindelof-4? Thanks

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    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Go with your gut but wait to the latest possible moment to see if any news on Rashford with Friday team news updates?

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      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Yeh guess even if rash plays 2nd game maybe worth keeping

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  5. Stranger Mings
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Play raya or Kepa ? Thanks

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    1. boc610
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      kepa

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      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Yeh just in case gets place back

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    2. WVA
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Raya

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      1. Stranger Mings
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Ok cheers maybe sensible to sell either for ddg

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  6. boc610
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    one of the worst standard semi finals ive seen in a champions league in a long time. how did napoli lose to this milan side??

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    1. JBG
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      City or RM will most likely destroy Inter in the final.

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      1. djman102
        • 16 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        We said this about Barcelona in 2010 though.

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        1. JBG
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Different Inter and different manager.

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        2. Well you know, Triffic
          • 15 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Jose = one of the goats in finals, whether people want to admit it or not.

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        3. PartyTime
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Utd fan wrote “destroy” 😆

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    2. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Agree

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  7. circusmonkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    If Luton go up, they only scored 57 goals in 46 games, so I would target clean sheets against them. Same for Coventry (58).

    If Boro or Sunderland go up, they conceeded 56 and 55, quite a lot more than the other two, so I would target forwards and mids against them.

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    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      if Luton go up they cannot play at their current home stadium as not up to Premier League standards?

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      1. circusmonkey
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 15 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        They have to change one stand (they talked about it in the commentary), that will cost £10m.

        Open Controls
    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I went to Luton airport once. True story. I was riding a dragon. A friendly one.

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    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      How ever goes up will have a different team in PL

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  8. WVA
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    TAA has single handedly put me from 10k to 20k over the past couple of weeks!

    Trippier Rashford to TAA Fodder -4 and start Isak?

    Ederson
    TAA Shaw Estupinan
    Salah Grealish Mitoma McAllister
    Haaland Kane Isak
    Kepa Isak Mings Neco

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  9. Our Tiny Windows
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Damn that 0.1 drop for Rashford means I’m 0.1 short to do Rashford/Isak to Fernandes/Alvarez.

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  10. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Inter through with that Lautaro G. Lukaku A. 3 up on aggregate with 20' to go

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  11. Nightf0x
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Steele (raya)
    Akanji trip taa (guehi mings)
    Rash mitoma salah grealish (wilock)
    Isak haland toney

    37 pts back in ML, Which? (Intial plan was FH gw38)

    A) play FH
    B) trip grealish toney -4 to varane kdb enciso/ferguson
    C) trip rash toney -4 to shaw bruno wilson/martial
    D) trip rash grealish toney -8 to varane kdb + antony enciso/ferguson (or) mac martial
    E) trip rash grealish toney -8 to kdb rodrigo + martial lindelof (or) enciso/ferguson shaw

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    1. Union_Jacks
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      C

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    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Free Hit

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      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Did you see Jarvish’s comment?

        https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/25880288

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  12. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Good evening all!! Have DDG and Rashford, if Rashford is fit, preferred option here???

    A- Emerson to Shaw(play over Trippier
    Or
    B- Grealish to Bruno(play Trippier)

    Cheers everyone!!!

    Open Controls
    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A but depends on how knackered grealish is after Madrid

      Open Controls
      1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers mate!!! Yeah will be keeping a close eye, I should really have simplified it and our best option…

        Bruno and Trippier
        Or
        Grealish and Shaw

        Open Controls
        1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          *put not our

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  13. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Hi all!Any news on Rashford's injury?Is it worth to get a Chelsea player?

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    1. Stranger Mings
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Sterling an option but prefer city / Utd replacement

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  14. SkyByBo
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    AC Milan are so poor, spurs losing to this lot was a disaster.

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    1. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Spurs have been poor though. Less than the sum of their parts, bar Kane.

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  15. Paqueta Rice
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Come on Sunderland, you can do it!

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  16. djman102
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Hearing the announcers talk about Sunderland's Michut takes me back.

    Open Controls
    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      To Constantinople?

      Open Controls
      1. panda07
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        All the way back to Byzantium

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        1. The Knights Template
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Ahhh the good old days!

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  17. bso
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Inter through. Hope City beat the $hit out of RM tomorrow.

    Open Controls
    1. Mr. O'Connell
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      So Inter can win it?

      Open Controls
      1. PartyTime
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        😆

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    2. GreennRed
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Massive gap in big game experience between both teams. I think Real will squeak through, could go to extra time.

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    3. PartyTime
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Real-Inter was my prediction. So hoping it stays like that. Wanna see Pep’s sad face again, if City fail to win the CL…I think Pep should just go back to Barca & try to win it there 😆

      No Messi, No CL!

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  18. nerd_is_the_werd
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Pure fluke.
    Inter Milan lost home any away to Bayern, and got the luck draws:

    R16: Porto
    QF: Benfica
    SF: AC MIlan

    Some very even draws, but will be an anti-climatic final unfortunately 🙁
    Hope I'm proven wrong...

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  19. panda07
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    30 mins since the last post at this time at this stage of the season???

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  20. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    If City win the league Sunday, is it likely that we will get massive rotation final two games?

    Open Controls
    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Hop on the vomitron!

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    2. EugeMurts
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Not so much, he’ll want to keep his top players in rhythm

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  21. Danno - Emre Canada
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    So looking ahead to the final GW as this might affect transfer decisions. And with TAA definitely being one and no other Liverpool who would be the other ideal defenders to own do we think???

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    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Maybe VVD, I think Southampton are poor at defending set pieces

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      1. Danno - Emre Canada
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah soz I meant not another Liverpool defender

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    2. The Ilfordian
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Rumour has it there are no clean sheets on the last day so you need defenders who score goals. Shaw an obvious choice and Estupinan nice to have. I like Schar over Trippier and I fancy an outside choice like Ayling

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      1. Danno - Emre Canada
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Ayling is interesting and Porri is a decent shout, always wanted to get him in and this could now be the opportunity. Cheers all.

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    3. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I have punted on Porro for the final 2 weeks

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  22. dparran
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    For GW37, play

    A) Isak / Wilson
    B) Alvarez
    C) Kane

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  23. Old Gregg
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Steele
    Shaw-Trips-Taa
    Rash-Salah-Mitoma-MacA-Bruno
    Halaand-Watkins

    2FT 0.7

    What would you do this week?

    A) Watkins > Alvarez
    B) Watkins > Wilson
    C) mitoma/MacA> mahrez
    D) 2 of the above
    E) anything else?

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