This Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also identify the top expected goal involvement (xGI) performers.
Having last looked at these tables after Gameweek 34, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members Area.
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TEAMS
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
Brighton and Hove Albion and Newcastle United continue to impress in attack, ahead of their meeting at St James’ Park on Thursday.
The reverse fixture ended goalless all the way back in Gameweek 2, but that scenario seems unlikely this time, given the firepower at Roberto De Zerbi and Eddie Howe’s disposal.
Leicester City’s loss to Liverpool on Monday has pushed the Foxes to the brink of relegation, despite an upturn in creativity since Dean Smith’s arrival.
It’s worth noting they have been awarded four penalties in their last six matches, distorting their xG figure, but if they had put away more of their opportunities (-4.70 xG delta), could they have been safe by now?
LEICESTER’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW36 (LIV) | GW35 (ful) | GW34 (EVE) | GW33 (lee) | GW32 (WOL) | GW31 (mci) | |
| xG | 0.41 | 2.84 | 3.46 | 2.19 | 2.43 | 2.36 |
Elsewhere, Everton managed five goals in a single game against Brighton for the first time this season in Gameweek 35, more than their previous six Premier League games under Sean Dyche.
They created 2.28 xG at the Amex, including four Opta-defined ‘big chances’.
Chelsea, meanwhile, continue to struggle in front of goal, with daunting trips to Manchester City and Manchester United in Double Gameweek 37.
- Biggest xG underachievers (last six matches): Man Utd (-5.57), Leicester (-4.70), Brentford (-3.57)
- Biggest xG overachievers (last six matches): Man City (+4.30), Nott’m Forest (+4.15), Fulham (+4.13)
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
