Best FPL replacements for Salah + Son

Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers are writing about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in 2023/24. Next up, The Wire co-host Pras discusses when Son Heung-min (£9.9m) and Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) could be back and identifies some replacements for the premium midfield pair.

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After seven deadlines in December, we are entering a quieter phase in January. It’s going to be no less tricky, though, as two of the permanent fixtures in our midfields, Son Heung-min (£9.9m) and Mohamed Salah (£13.3m), are off to the Asian Cup and Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) respectively. When combined with the Erling Haaland (£13.9m) return conundrum, there is a lot to think about.

WHEN WILL SON AND SALAH BE BACK?

This excellent chart from @DbAbsur and @f_analytic on X shows the likelihood of returns for Salah, Son and others, based on the odds of their teams making it through the competition.

As we can see, there is a very high likelihood that both Salah and Son will miss Gameweeks 21-23. There is a 70%+ chance of a return in Gameweek 24 and unless they indulge in post-tournament victory parades, everyone will almost certainly be back for Gameweek 25.

Gameweek 24 is an interesting conundrum already with Salah playing Burnley and Son playing Brighton and Hove Albion (the reverse fixtures of Gameweek 19); we could need these players back sooner than we think.

The case to hold Son and Salah

As there is a good chance of a return by Gameweek 24, I have debated moving to an ‘eight attackers’ structure and just holding Son or Salah for three weeks. I have £0.6-0.7m team value saved in each player, so there is some merit to this approach.

However, I do think the midfield slots are so precious and carry such a high upside that a £0.3m sale value loss isn’t the end of the world, and we should try to get some upside if we can.

Top Salah and Son Replacements

Short-term cheap

Let’s cover the cheaper options under £6.5m first. The budget enablers allow a smoother return for Haaland, potentially as an eighth attacker, and thus allow holding one of Son or Salah through as an option as well.

Pascal Gross (£6.4m)

Has quietly gone under the radar, consistently delivering 0.5 xGI every game in the last few matches. Always great for bonus points, too. Expect him to play further forward while Simon Adingra (£5.0m) and Kaoru Mitoma (£6.5m) are out. There could even be a case to hold him for longer as Brighton’s fixtures are great pretty much until Gamewek 28.

Alejandro Garnacho (£4.7m)

There are three good fixtures for Man Utd, who despite their club troubles continue to look good in attack. Garnacho has started every Premier League match since Gameweek 11 and seems to be firmly first choice – be it on the left flank when Antony (£6.8m) starts or from the right when Marcus Rashford (£8.4m) gets the nod.

Cole Palmer (£5.6m)

With Chelsea’s fixtures turning after Gameweek 24, and a likely blank in Gameweek 26, I think Palmer is now a short-term option. He’s a good one, though, with great underlying data plus penalties.

Long-term cheap

Douglas Luiz (£5.5m)

Penalties, set-pieces, and an excellent fixture in Gameweek 26 when Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool likely blank are the main arguments for the Brazilian.

He could be a good option as an eighth attacker, if not playable every week. There is a case for Palmer owners to look at getting Luiz and sell the Chelsea man.

Eberechi Eze (£6.0m)/Michael Olise (£5.8m)

The fixtures in the near term are not ideal but longer term they are good, especially in Blank Gameweek 26 when Crystal Palace play Burnley.

The home games against Luton Town and Sheffield United are also high-upside encounters. Of these two, I’d still pick Eze for the higher likelihood of him being on penalties.

Olise is also now nursing a minor hamstring injury that may keep him out of Gameweek 21.

Short-term expensive

None of the expensive options (between £6.5m-£10.0m) are that appealing in midfield.

A non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) per 90 minutes of below 0.5 and without penalties is nothing to write home about.

However, some names stand out that are highlighted below:

Richarlison (£6.8m)

Despite the defensive woes, Spurs have persisted with their attacking mindset. Possibly taking penalties while Son is away, Richarlison is a good option until both James Maddison (£7.8m) and Son are back in the starting XI.

Phil Foden (£7.9m)

Until Kevin De Bruyne (£10.2m) and Haaland return, Foden will be playing centrally and very much involved in the Manchester City attack.

Even getting the home games against Sheffield United and Burnley, in Gameweeks 20 and 22, may be worth it for the upside.

There is a possible Double Gameweek against Brentford on the horizon, as well, but it may come too late for Foden to remain a clear first choice.

Diogo Jota (£7.7m)

Back from injury and amongst the goals again, Jota could be a like-for-like replacement for Salah for a Liverpool team that will be looking for a goal outlet in the Egyptian’s absence.

I would ideally like to see a start against Newcastle United on New Year’s Day before going there, though.

Long-term expensive

Martin Odegaard (£8.0m)

The underlying data has been poor this season but more recently when playing alongside Kai Havertz (£7.1m), Odegaard has shown glimpses of attacking threat with those late runs into the box.

Arsenal have good fixtures pretty much until Gameweek 29, which means that he is a great mid-term option to hop on.

Hopefully, this shortlist is useful. Where I will go will depend on how quickly I need to fund the ‘Haaland back’ move and any Double Gameweek announcements.

Hopefully, we have better clarity on this between Gameweeks 20 and 21.

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