The first Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline of 2024 is nearing – so it’s also time for the first Scout Picks proper of the calendar year.
This is a Free Hit in all but name, with the focus solely on the upcoming Gameweek. Selections made in the Scout Squad are a big factor when it comes to deciding who made the final cut.
As ever, though, we are limited by certain restrictions:
- An £83.0m budget for our starting XI
- An overall squad limit of £100.0m
- No more than three players per team
GOALKEEPER
The betting money wouldn’t be on goalfest at Bramall Lane, as the division’s lowest goalscorers meet a West Ham United side potentially deprived of its entire frontline thanks to injury and unavailability. Alphonse Areola (£4.2m), on a run of three straight clean sheets, is averaging more FPL points per match (4.4) than any other first-choice goalkeeper in 2023/24.
DEFENDERS
Pervis Estupinan (£5.0m) has two goals and three assists in just eight outings this season, with his average of 4.6 points per match beaten only by the two £6.9m+ premium defenders. It’s important to acknowledge that his current centre-half role restricts his ability to get forward; time will tell whether Brighton stick with that tactic. Even so, there’s a decent chance he may end up in a very advanced position at some point in the game – as he did in the final half an hour in the weekend cup tie against Stoke City.
The possible return of Messrs Romero and van de Ven boosts Spurs’ clean sheet prospects, while Manchester United’s inconsistent form and wasteful finishing – only two clubs have scored fewer goals in 2023/24 – means a trip to Old Trafford is not to be feared. Not that you really own Pedro Porro (£5.8m) for his shut-outs: he’s first for shots and fourth for chances created among all Fantasy defenders this season.
Arsenal are by some distance the bookies’ favourites to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 21. Still boasting the joint-most shut-outs (seven) and the fewest expected goals conceded (16.64) in the division, they’ll be up against a Crystal Palace side potentially without the influential Michael Olise (£5.9m). The Scout Squad votes were split between the two centre-halves but we’ve sided with Gabriel Magalhaes (£5.0m), who has had almost three times as many shots as William Saliba (£5.6m) in 2023/24.
MIDFIELDERS
Phil Foden (£7.9m) has posed a major goal threat in the ’10’ role over the last few games. The England international has been involved in 19 Manchester City shots in the last two Gameweeks alone, 10 attempts of his own and nine created for others. Newcastle, meanwhile, are fresh off the back of conceding the highest xG in a Premier League match on record. It’s not an isolated incident: the Magpies are bottom for xGC in their last six matches.
Of the FPL midfielders available in Gameweek 21, Richarlison (£6.9m) is first for non-penalty xG, big chances and indeed goals in the last five Gameweeks. This five-match stretch has seen the Brazilian move to a centre-forward role. Even being substituted in all five fixtures – his average run-out has been around 70 minutes – hasn’t prevented him from racking up those numbers. Spurs, incidentally, are the only club to have scored in all of their league games this season.
Gameweek 20’s highest points-scorer, Cole Palmer (£5.7m), gets the chance to build on his excellent points-per-start average of 7.3 against a Fulham side that has shipped 16 goals – and kept no clean sheets – in their last six away matches.
Bukayo Saka (£9.1m) has blanked in four of the last five matches but there’s little wrong with his underlying numbers, with 27 shots in the last seven Gameweeks alone – a tally that no other midfielder can top. He enjoyed his best score (18 points) last season against the Eagles, who are themselves on a run of nine games without a clean sheet.
And speaking of underlying stats, Pascal Gross (£6.5m) has been attracting our attention of late. Of the midfielders who are available in Gameweek 21, he joins Saka, Richarlison and Palmer in the top four for expected goal involvement (xGI) in their last six matches. Season-wide, his 52 chances created is the second most in the Premier League.
FORWARDS
Welcome back, Ivan Toney (£7.9m). We may be jumping the gun here, particularly given that we won’t hear from Thomas Frank ahead of the Gameweek 21 deadline. But a behind-closed-doors treble against that recognised barometer of finishing prowess, the Southampton under-23s, suggests he’s primed and ready to go. Nottingham Forest are the hardest-hit Premier League team in terms of departures for AFCON, while neither they nor opponents Brentford have kept a clean sheet in the last nine Gameweeks.
Erling Haaland (£13.9m) made the ‘bus’ team, while Julian Alvarez (£7.0m) was given unanimous backing in the Scout Squad. But with these picks going out before Friday’s pressers, and the possibility that the two City forwards could be sharing game-time at Newcastle, we’ve opted to leave the City representation at Foden.
Ollie Watkins (£8.9m), who carries no such rotation risk, is included instead. Watkins has three goals and an assist in his last four away outings and may be facing Everton at an opportune time, with the Toffees fresh off the back of three successive defeats and hit by a few key injuries. Villa inflicted Everton’s biggest defeat of the season in the reverse fixture.
THE SUBSTITUTES
- Emi Martinez (£5.2m): Goalkeepers have averaged more points per match against Everton than any other team this season, in no small part thanks to their unreliable finishing allowing save points to be accrued.
- Malo Gusto (£4.2m): The budget defender has created five chances in three matches since returning to the Chelsea XI in Gameweek 18.
- Alfie Doughty (£4.4m): The corner-taking, chance-creating wing-back will be coming up against a Burnley side ranked 19th for chances conceded from set plays over the last six matches.
- Darwin Nunez (£7.4m): The composition of the Liverpool attack is tough to call even with Mohamed Salah out but Darwin’s contributions have been hailed by Jurgen Klopp, the latest being a match-turning cameo in the midweek cup tie with Fulham. He’s fourth among regular forwards for mins per xGI, even if he’s struggled to turn those numbers into points.
THE CAPTAIN
We choose the Scout Picks captain using a vote between our Scout Squad panel.
Bukayo Saka was handed the armband this week, with Cole Palmer as the vice-captain.
COMMUNITY CHAMPION
Each week, a member of the Fantasy Football Scout community takes on the Scout Picks.
The community member who beats our team by the largest margin will win a £100 Amazon voucher and a place in our Moderators and Contributors League for the following season.
The-Red-1’s 64-30 victory in Gameweek 16 gave the community the biggest win (34 points difference) of 2023/24 so far.
Our champion this week is champ, whose selection is as follows:
Trafford, Doughty, Moreno, Estupinan, Jota, Saka, Palmer, Foden, Darwin, Toney, Alvarez
The Scout Picks are 12-8 up on the community this season after 100k Short beat us in Gameweek 20.
FOLLOW THE SCOUT’S WEEKLY TRANSFER PLANS
We’re running a Scout community team in FPL this season, with regulars like TopMarx, Tom Freeman, Marc Jobling and more contributing to the weekly decisions.
And we’re not just looking one week ahead like we are with the Scout Picks but instead planning in advance for the weeks and months to come.
You can follow our team via the Premier Fantasy Tools Pro Planner, which you can learn more about here.
We’re currently sitting at 57k in the world, just past the halfway point of the season.
